Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 291055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
455 AM MDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 414 AM MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Water vapor imagery this morning is clearly showing the area of
low pressure over north central New Mexico. This closed low is
responsible for the showers and occasional lightning strikes over
extreme southeastern portions of our CWA. Even though upper level
flow will remain easterly across the area today, models continue
to highlight showers and thunderstorms from the central mountains
down into the San Juans. Plenty of moisture remains in the
atmosphere along with some midlevel instability that will be
worked on by daytime heating to produce said convection. Little
change to convection initiation which will start around noon and
continue through the evening hours. Do have a slight concern with
cloud cover to our east that looks to be entering our CWA at this
hour. If it holds together, this cloud deck may inhibit convection
though any breaks will likely allow enough heating for some storms
and showers to form.

Overnight, precipitation looks to really shut down as best forcing
will be well to our east. With that in mind, removed all mention
of precipitation from midnight onwards.

While the best forcing remains to our east, the GFS and NAM still
paint some showers and storms over our area, very similar to
today. Again, daytime heating, orographics and residual moisture
look to be enough for some convection to fire.

Temperatures will remain near climatology for the short term

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the western
half of the CONUS through the workweek as a trough of low
pressure moves inland and impacts the Pacific Northwest. There
will be a slight decrease in shower and thunderstorm activity on
Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered activity over the southern
mountains and isolated activity elsewhere. Moist southwest flow
will increase by midweek with an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity expected into the weekend. As the Pacific storm system
moves east across the northern Rockies the southwest gradient will
increase by late Friday. Seasonable temperatures are expected
through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 414 AM MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

VFR conditions will be prevalent through 17Z or so when
thunderstorms and showers will start developing.  Heavy rain,
small hail and gusty winds up to 30 mph will be possible with the
stronger storms today causing a brief reduction in vsby/cigs.
Mountains may be obscured at times in showers. Precipitation will
generally be confined south of a line from the Flat Tops Mountains
to KCNY with drier conditions north of that line.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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