Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 251123
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
523 AM MDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 254 AM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

The current satellite water vapor image is showing yesterday`s
storm system now centered over central North Dakota dragging it`s
cold front through the Great Plains. High pressure is now building
in over the Western CONUS. Currently the IR satellite image is
showing clouds beginning to scatter out as cool dry northwesterly
flow fills in behind the departing storm system.

The 0000Z NAM12, GFS20 and ECMWF have all initialized well with
the current synoptic weather pattern and remain in good agreement
through at least Monday night. All three models show high pressure
steadily building over the western states, providing clear skies
and dry weather through Monday night. These conditions will spark
a warming trend for the forecast area, which should result in a very
nice fall day today and Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Upper level ridging will be migrating east Monday night and
Tuesday with southwest flow returning by midweek. Pattern looks to
remain dry through Tuesday before moisture starts lifting back
north into the southern zones on Wednesday as the remnants of
another tropical system get caught up in the flow. ECMWF and GFS
in decent agreement with kicking a wave out across the forecast
area Thursday with additional energy to follow through the
weekend. So after a slow start to this extended period, things
will become more interesting as we close out the week with rain
and mountain snow returning to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Cold, dry air is filtering into the area behind a departing storm
system. This cold dry air is clearing out the skies quickly this
morning as high pressure begins to build over the area. Winds will
be generally light today under this building ridge of high
pressure. However, winds could get a little gusty during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Larry
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...Larry


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