Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 241157

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
457 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 358 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

The open wave trough responsible for generating snow across the
region since Thursday night was over western Colorado early this
morning. In response, snow continued over most mountain areas and
the lower elevations of northwest Colorado east of Craig and in
the Roaring Fork Valley. Models indicated the trough axis will be
just west of the Continental Divide at 12Z and snow is expected to
decrease in its wake. Orographics and instability will keep
scattered showers going past sunrise, but don`t expect much
additional accumulation. For now, will let advisories continue in
western Colorado, though have removed the Uncompahgre and Roan
Plateaus with this package. Seems clear snow will decrease to the
point where highlights become unnecessary well before noon so stay
tuned for morning updates.

After a late morning/early afternoon lull, models indicated
another approaching trough will begin to generate some light snow
over the northern and north-central mountains areas. Appears
instability will play some role as dynamic lift not all that
impressive. GFS appeared a little overdone with regard to QPF
coverage so pared PoPs back, especially over the San Juans where
conditions should be dry during the latter part of the day. Nudged
blended temperatures toward warmer MOS guidance anticipating
partial sunshine will result in slightly milder temperatures for
most areas.

The trough mentioned previously will sweep over the area tonight
bringing another round of snow, mainly to the mountain areas. As
depicted in latest models, this system won`t have a lot of
moisture to work with so snowfall accumulations are expected to
be light. Therefore, will not hoist another round of Winter
Weather Advisories with this package. Overnight lows will continue
to be colder than normal for this time of year.

Snow will continue in the mountains along the Continental Divide
Sunday morning in the northwest flow behind the trough before
largely diminishing during the afternoon. Afternoon temperatures
will continue to trend warmer, but will still fall well below
normal for late February.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

Still some discrepancies showing up in the long term with the next
storm system. Some light snow showers will kick off over the
Continental Divide Saturday evening and increase in coverage and
intensity by midnight. This precipitation will continue as the
upper level trough moves overhead by daybreak Sunday with precip
finally ending by about noon. The EC has the same thoughts as far
as evolution of the system is concerned. However, the timing is
slower with light precip starting by early Sunday morning and the
heavier precip beginning around daybreak Sunday. Am sure a happy
medium will be reached but for now, suffice to say an unsettled

Monday looks to be dry as yet another system drops down from the
Pacific Northwest. The EC and GFS are getting into better
agreement with this system but still plenty of time for these
solutions to change. For now, best chance for any significant
precipitation looks to be Wednesday through late Thursday night.
Plenty of time to get a better handle on this storm so please,
stay tuned.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 457 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

The last remnants of the latest upper level disturbance will bring
snow to KHDN, KASE, KGUC and KTEX early this morning. This
activity will likely result in MVFR conditions with CIGS below ILS
breakpoints. In the wake of this system, conditions will improve
with CIGS rising above ILS breakpoints by early afternoon.
Thereafter, all sites will have VFR conditions through the
remainder of the day. However, clouds will increase and lower
ahead the next disturbance which will move over the area during
the night. CIGS are likely to dip below ILS breakpoints at KRIL,
KEGE and KASE later in the night.



CO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST today for COZ004-009-010-




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