Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 282021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
221 PM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1248 PM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Upper ridge will briefly break down tonight as shortwave trough
moves out of the desert southwest and across the central Rockies.
Associated surface cold front will move through the local area
Saturday morning with a wind shift to the northwest but no
precipitation. Northerly winds will increase to breezy Saturday
afternoon and temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower
80s...still much above normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue through the
forecast period. If there was a forecast concern it would be
potential for near critical fire weather conditions Monday

Ridge breaks down as shortwave trough ejects across the plains
Saturday night and Sunday.  A weak cold front drops south over our
CWA late Saturday night/Sunday morning, with slightly cooler temps
Sunday before SW flow brings stronger WAA back to the region.
SREF/NAM are showing possible fog/stratus Sunday morning behind
this front. I held off on introducing mention for now as higher
resolution guidance is more patchy in fog signal and location. If
fog signal is still show during subsequent updates it would
probably be worth introducing.

SW flow aloft on Monday along with lee trough deepening will result
in stronger WAA and tighter gradient in place over our CWA. This
will lead to temperatures back in the upper 70s to middle 80s,
RH values 15-20 percent, and breezy conditions (over parts of our
CWA). 3hr crossover of wind/rh is still in question, so only "near
critical" wording is being introduced in HWO.

Split flow then develops before upper level ridging reestablishes
itself by the end of next week. Guidance is still showing a
shortwave and associated front passing through the plains Wed-Thu
through the northern storm track, however air mass remains very dry
and main area of forcing remains out of our CWA. Current trend in
guidance is dry through the forecast period compared to previous
runs that had slightly better precip signal Wed-Wed night. With
consensus favoring dry I opted not to reintroduce chances.
Temperatures should be cooler in the upper 60s to around 70, but
this is still 5 to 15 F above normal for late October/early


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period.
Scattered to broken high clouds will continue to spill across the
Rockies. Surface winds will be light through tonight, generally
veering from northeast early this afternoon to southeast later
this afternoon and westerly tonight. A cold front Saturday morning
will result in winds shifting to northwest and increasing later in
the morning or perhaps early afternoon to breezy.




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