Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 051131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...MUCH OF THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY SITTING UNDER A BLANKET OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS SURFACE
TROUGH SITS OVER THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. WITH TROUGH PLACED IN
CURRENT LOCALE VERSUS PLACEMENT YESTERDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME...THE
REGION IS THE WARM SECTOR SIDE WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE 70S...AND
UP TO THE LOWER 80S IN SPOTS.

LITTLE MOVEMENT FURTHER EAST OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS SUNRISE IS GOING
TO LIMIT ANY DOWNTREND IN TEMPS...AND THUS WILL SET THE ENTIRE AREA
UP YET ANOTHER HOT DAY. MODELS DO KEEP CLOUD COVER THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY TODAY...BUT HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE 95-100 DEGREE
RANGE NONETHELESS.

THE BROAD H5 RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER ROCKIES/PLAINS REGION. SO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND ON INTO NEXT MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER SEEING
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY MODELS STILL IN CONSENSUS FOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH...TO DROP SOUTH
SLOWLY THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SETTLING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY MONDAY. LIMITED MODEL QPF
WITH THE FROPA DUE TO MOST DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH...SO
PLAN TO CONTINUE PREVIOUS TRENDS OF KEEPING MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW/RW. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE RIDGE COMING SOUTH BEHIND FROPA WILL GIVE THE TRI STATE
REGION A BREAK FROM THE CURRENT HOT TREND WE HAVE BEEN SEEING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY/MONDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WEST
TO THE LOW 60S EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 80S.
EARLY HIGHS NEAR 90F POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BEFORE FROPA OCCURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TRI
STATE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND COOL THE TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH THE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

AT THE SAME TIME... ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... LOCATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST... WILL START TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT... AS IT MOVES
OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS SECOND FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THUS PRODUCING MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THESE DAYS. DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES WITH A MIX OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS THRU
FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH FOR BOTH SITES BY 01Z SUNDAY. WIND SHEAR FOR
BOTH SITES THRU 15Z-16Z...KMCK WS020/19040KT...KGLD
WS020/23040KT. WINDS OTHERWISE SSW 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS
AFT 16Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JN


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