Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 300537
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1137 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF
KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER LOOK TO BE IN PLACE AGAIN JUST LIKE
LAST NIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...WHAT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING...AND WHAT DID BEST FROM YESTERDAY...LOWERED MINS THREE
DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS SHORT WAVE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE EAST TONIGHT...BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY
LINGERING AND MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND APPROACHES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LEE
SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON ANOTHER STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN WITH A COLD
FRONT PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AM
EXPECTING THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE LOW 80S IN YUMA COUNTY TO THE MID 90S FROM HILL
CITY TO GOVE AND TRIBUNE AND POINTS SOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE
FRONTAL TIMING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA MAY HIT THEIR HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES
THE REST OF THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S
EXCEPT AROUND 60 FROM HILL CITY TO LEOTI AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST.
FOR MONDAY EXPECT LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY SHIFTS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.

NOT TERRIBLY CONVINCED THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...WITH ECMWF/GFS PRODUCING SOME MODEST QPF CANT IGNORE
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHWEST WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. MAY SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS A RESULT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT NEAR THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ON FRIDAY
FORECAST AREA BACK INTO THE MONSOONAL FLOW WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING...MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA WITH LOWER IF NOT LITTLE CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP BY 00Z SATURDAY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z DUE TO A BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER 12Z THE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TOWARD
THE SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER...DUE TO BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY...CHOSE
NOT TO MENTION ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER


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