Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 281115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
515 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017

Dry northwest flow will continue today, with mostly sunny skies
and temperatures near normal. A shortwave trough dropping into the
northern plains will force a surface cold front through the local
area late tonight and Monday morning. Forecast soundings show most
of the moisture above 6kft, which will result in mostly virga. GFS
soundings a little lower with the moisture, so introduced slight
chances for a shower but will more likely be just sprinkles. The
front will be in central/southeastern Colorado Monday afternoon
where a few thunderstorms will develop. Some of the storms near
the Palmer Divide may clip southern portions of the area as they
move southeast Monday afternoon through Monday night. Instability
will be very limited so no severe storms are expected. The front
will not have much impact on temperatures and highs on Monday
will be near normal. On Tuesday, will still be under northwest
flow but the western ridge tries to build into the plains. The old
surface front begins to retreat north as a warm front, and
appears to be the primary forcing mechanism for thunderstorms as
upper support is lacking. Will carry slight to low chance pops
across southern areas nearest expected location of the front.
Instability forecast to be rather weak though may approach 1000
j/kg in far southern areas Tuesday afternoon. Deep layer shear is
forecast at around 30kts. Those parameters suggest only a marginal
risk for a severe storm at best. Temperatures on Tuesday will be
near to slightly above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017

Shortwave ridging will move slowly east as several weak shortwaves
begin to traverse the central Rockies, moving into the central High
Plains on Wednesday. The H7 pattern is in decent agreement as the
global models all are relatively close; however, at the H5 level
and up, there are profound differences. The GFS is a bit more
consistent run to run thus I am leaning more toward a GFS
solution. Chance PoPs will prevail through the afternoon on
Wednesday with strong to severe thunderstorms being possible.
Thunderstorm activity will be less likely on Thursday as upper
support is lost; however, there is no consistent and reliable
model solution for Thursday as GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all
indicate sharply different solutions.

Friday brings another chance of thunderstorms to the CWA as a very
weak shortwave is expected to push through the area. Instability
will be relatively high with CAPE ranging from 2500 to 3500 J/Kg;
however shear is lacking with the GFS only indicating around 20
knots of 0-6 km shear. Severe thunderstorms are possible but will
likely be limited to pulse type multi-cell storms as supercell
development will be difficult given the lack of shear.

A very weak cold front will push across the region on Saturday with
showers and thunderstorms possible through the afternoon to early


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 514 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Dry
northwest flow will result in mostly clear skies. Surface winds
will increase a bit this morning with mixing and be breezy through
the afternoon before diminishing.




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