Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 271717
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1017 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY. BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS...THE REGION WAS GENERALLY RUNNING ABOUT 6-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN ADVERTISED. LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SHOWED A SLOWER TREND FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THINK THE
MAIN CULPRIT FOR THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IS A STOUT INVERSION
ERODING MUCH SLOWER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FORECAST PROJECTED. BASED
ON LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE INVERSION ERODES VERY
SLOWLY THIS MORNING AND MAY FINALLY BE OVER COME BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BY THEN...IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE TO GET SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AND REACH HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THEREFORE...LOWERED
THE HIGHS FOR TODAY AND SLOWED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND SIMILAR TO
THAT OF THE HRRR. DRY FORECAST REMAINS WITH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE
IN THE DAY. LATEST GRIDS SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

UPDATE SENT FOR MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS OFF LATEST SET OF HOURLIES.
OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS REGION WILL WAIT FOR
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ROCKIES TO FILTER OVER CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...MODELS HAVE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF. GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...UPPER FLOW
SET TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AS TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR TODAY THOUGH...SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
WORK THRU THE UPPER RIDGE AND BRING MID/HIGHS CLOUDS TO THE AREA
BEFORE CLEARING OUT. WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING BY THE START OF
THE WEEKEND...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLIMENTED BY A SURFACE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...AIDING TO
PROVIDE A STRONGER WAA UNDER SSW FLOW FRIDAY RIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE AREA...MODEL 850/925 TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM +14C TODAY...UP TO +20C BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK DOWN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE CWA WILL
SEE GOOD CHANCE FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY INTO SATURDAY ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN ZONES. THIS IS GOING TO SET THE AREA FOR 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT TRENDS
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TRI STATE
REGION THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD
LATE SUNDAY WILL WORK INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING.  BEHIND THE FRONT WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.  AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO THE 1000-500MB
MOISTURE AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

A SECOND LESS INTENSE COLD FROM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE WEST COAST
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT.  MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAST THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...WITH THE SLOWER ONE HAVING
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE TROUGH STILL OUT TO SEA.
THE FASTER OTHER MODEL HAS MOIST WEST FLOW OVER THE AREA AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  AT THIS POINT WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM WHAT THE
INITIAL MODEL BLEND GAVE WHICH HAS LOW PRECIP. CHANCES IN FOR
VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
ONLY POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER IS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE
FRONT RANGE. A LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT KGLD AND SOUTH WINDS AT KMCK
TODAY. LEE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE
WEST AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE. WINDS 8-12 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH


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