Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 011737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1137 AM MDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Today-tonight...some weak instability develops during the day
across the western 1/2 of the forecast area as moisture in the 850-
500mb layer increases. Confidence in adding any precipitation
mention is low thus silent pops continued. As the upper ridge axis
moves into far eastern Colorado overnight the better moisture slowly
moves east bringing a decrease in silent pops from west to east.
Afternoon temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80. Low temperatures
in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Sunday-Sunday night...upper ridge axis over the area during the day
slowly moving east overnight as low pressure and associated trough
dives southeast toward Nevada putting the area in southwest flow
aloft. Instability increases toward 1500 J/KG during the day but
moisture is rather limited so will keep things dry. For the
overnight hours low level jet gets going helping generate some
elevated instability. With little if any moisture available no
precipitation expected. High temperatures warm another few degrees
into the low to mid 80s. Low temperatures in the low to upper 50s.

Monday-Monday night...upper low pressure center lifts northeast into
parts of northern Wyoming at the end of the day then into eastern
Montana overnight. NAM showing instability axis setting up along the
CO/KS border late in the day shifting east across the eastern 1/3-
1/4 of the area by 00z Tuesday. This is where better chances for
showers and thunderstorms exists, similar to previous forecast. It
will be breezy to windy with winds from the south to southeast. High
temperatures in the low to upper 80s.

For the overnight hours precipitation chances should come to an end
fairly early in the evening before increasing a bit after midnight
as moisture increases again along southeast moving cold front. Low
temperatures in the 40s for far eastern Colorado, 50s east of the
state line.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 232 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2016

An upper low will move out of the northern Rockies Tuesday morning
and into the northern Plains as we head into the afternoon. A trough
and associated cold front will push across the CWA through the
course of the day on Tuesday with slight thunderstorm chances
lingering in the eastern portions of the CWA through the middle
afternoon. The front will be east of the CWA by 00Z Wednesday as
indicated by the GFS theta-e gradient fields and sharp mixing ratio
gradient. Very dry air will advect in from the west behind the front
and we could see elevated fire danger late Tuesday afternoon mainly
in the eastern Colorado counties. Upper flow will remain mainly
westerly through Friday with dry conditions expected across the
central High Plains. Went with slightly lower minimum temperatures
on Wednesday and Thursday nights than guidance suggested especially
in the western portions of the CWA due to light winds and a trend
toward lower overnight cloud cover.

Upper flow begins to shift a bit more northwesterly Thursday
afternoon/evening and into Friday with continued CAA overnight
thursday into Friday. A few locations in western portions of Kit
Carson, Cheyenne, and Yuma counties in eastern Colorado could see
temperatures fall to near freezing Thursday night. West to
northwest flow will continue through Friday into Saturday with dry
conditions expected both days.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Sat Oct 1 2016

VFR conditions expected to for the TAFs. Light winds will continue
through period.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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