Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 281054
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
454 AM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 346 AM MDT Sat May 28 2016

Forecast issues will be continued precipitation chances in this
active pattern and when will the next severe weather event will be.
Satellite showing an amplified and blocky pattern from the Pacific
into eastern North America. Slow moving upper low that brought more
rain and hazardous weather to the area today is slowly moving to the
north and east.

At jet level...everything appears to start out fine. At mid
levels...models did not too bad with the Canadian slightly better
than the rest. The Nam and Gfs were doing well on the surface
pattern. The Nam and Gfs were doing well on the low level thermal
field.

Today/tonight...first question will there be any lingering
precipitation over the area this morning. Models consistent in
taking the upper system further to the northeast. Precipitation has
been steadily decreasing and at this time it looks like the rainfall
will be done by 12z so will have the morning dry. Model guidance
pretty close today for the maxes and only made minor adjustments.

A shortwave begins begins affect the far west very late in the
afternoon. So continued to have a slight chance in the far west.
This shortwave then moves across the rest of the area through the
night and strengthens as it takes on somewhat of a negative tilt.
Also could make the case for a very weak right rear quadrant over
the northern two thirds of the area late in the night. So I
steadily progressed slight chance pops across the area through the
night. Although am a little concerned that the jet lift could make
for more coverage.

Sunday/Sunday night...Models start diverging with the details and
with differing speeds/amplitude of the shortwaves moving through my
confidence is lowered in how things will turn out. Models develop a
decent amount of qpf and the qpf init followed suit. The above
mentioned shortwave trough and the above mentioned right rear
quadrant lingers over the area in the morning. So raised the eastern
portion of the area into the low chance category for the morning.

After this is when the problems start coming up. At their best the
models are showing a lot of shortwaves moving through with a lot of
interaction. For the afternoon...one shortwave trough is leaving the
area while another enters the west. Subsidence from the first
shortwave could dampen the affects of the second wave. Previous
forecast had low chance pops for the afternoon and kept that
forecast.

Light upslope winds occur during the day with a decent amount of
cloud cover around with rainfall moving in and out of the area.
Model guidance looks warm to me. So lowered maxes or went closer to
the cooler guidance.

Monday/Monday night...in general the models are showing northwest
flow aloft developing over the area as a strong upper system moves
into the north central portion of the country. At the same time
another system moves into the southwest portion of the country.
Models are not in very good agreement due to how they choose to have
each system interact with each other.

Overall the models do show mid level lift increasing through the day
into the night in this northwest flow. At the same continued south
to southeast winds bring in/increase the low level moisture. Models
dramatically increase the instability with little to no cinh by the
end of the afternoon. Typically this setup produces significant
rainfall and severe weather. However, model disagreement lower
confidence. Models/qpf init have a lot of qpf over the area for this
entire period and definitely agree. Feel confident enough in the
general scenario that will mention a chance of severe thunderstorms
in the hwo.

Again because of the cloud cover...unfavorable surface
winds...and developing precipitation...believe that the cooler
guidance will be the most correct.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 148 AM MDT Sat May 28 2016

For the long term period the models are showing that Tuesday through
Wednesday at 00z are the only times where precipitation is possible.
There is a trough sitting over the north central CONUS which is
going to impact the CWA in the beginning of the extended period. An
upper level low that is sitting over Arizona and New Mexico will be
absorbed into the main flow at the beginning of the period; that in
addition to 700 mb shortwaves will help with storm development.
Surface CAPE looks fairly good with up to 1500 J/kg Tuesday night
over the eastern portions of the CWA. Bulk shear does not look
impressive though. Due to the instability factors mentioned storm
development is possible.

The remainder of the period looks dry. The models show a ridge
building over the western CONUS Tuesday and progresses east through
the period which eventually reaches the area Wednesday night. This
ridge will bring warmer temperatures to the region, with
temperatures reaching the upper 70s Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 453 AM MDT Sat May 28 2016

Vfr conditions and light/shifting winds are expected through the
entire period.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...BULLER


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