Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 281925
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1225 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOME NORTHERLY UNDER 10 MPH
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THEY WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES IN...CREATING AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW INCREASE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
LIKELY CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH OR SO.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT LOW TO MID TEENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WITH LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE
AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC AIRMASS AND COLDER AIR
POURS IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL START THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THOSE DAYS WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GFS AND ECMWF
STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW KICKING OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE TOWARDS THE GFS AND BRINGS IT FURTHER NORTH BUT NOT QUITE
AS FAR AS THE GFS...WHICH PAINTS A FAIRLY DECENT SWATH OF SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LEOTI
TO HILL CITY. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS BUT CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
ALL THAT GREAT. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 12Z THEN INCREASING
THREAT FOR MVFR CIGS FROM 14Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 11Z VRB05KTS THEN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 10KTS BY 12Z THEN GUSTING 15-20KTS FROM 15Z THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHOULD
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AFTER 15Z.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 10Z THEN INCREASING
THREAT FOR MVFR CIGS FROM 12Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 09Z VRB05KTS THEN BECOMING
NORTHEAST UNDER 10KTS AT 10Z. AROUND 14Z NORTHEAST WINDS GUST
15-20KTS WITH LIGHT SNOW AFTER 14Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99



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