Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 300729
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS
WEEKEND RISING TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND GENERATE LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN GOOD SATURATION WHICH WILL OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
BY 18Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
ROUGHLY A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AND AROUND
A HALF INCH SOUTH OF THERE. SHOWERS FALLING INTO THE DRY AIR TODAY
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME WET BULBING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

A CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTH
ON TUESDAY... BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND
MILD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IT TURNS COLDER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPR TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES. BY FRIDAY AN
OMEGA PATTERN IS PROGGED ALOFT WITH LARGE UPPER LOWS OVER THE ERN
AND WRN U.S. AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION.

CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW REGARDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWING IT CLOSE BY
OVER THE ERN GRTLKS RGN BUT THE GFS SENDING IT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC RGN. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE WILL
SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAN
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING... ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THEN CEILINGS LOWER TO
AROUND 2500 FEET AGL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NO MARINE ISSUES DUE TO LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A SMALLER
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04



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