Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 010711

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
311 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Low pressure will slowly spin across Lower Michigan bringing
occasional rain showers through the weekend. Fair weather will
arrive early next week as the low finally moves away.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Current radar loop looks remarkably similar to the past two
nights, with rain showers still streaming in from the southeast
into the SE forecast area as the upper cutoff low spins across
the Ohio Valley. It is slowly moving back north into Lower
Michigan before finally getting kicked east as longwave trough
moves into the western CONUS early next week.

Expect rain showers to continue into tonight and Sunday before
tapering off Sunday night as the occluded low moves out of the
forecast area. Marginally steep lapse rates this afternoon makes
diurnal enhancement of thunderstorms possible. We are seeing
cellular convection forming on radar south of the Ohio and Indiana
border already and expect this to move north today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Sfc/upper level ridging will bring fair and mild weather Monday night
through Wednesday. Temperatures will undergo a gradual moderating
trend early to mid next week as flow becomes southerly and the upper
level ridge builds in. High temperatures will reach the lower 70s
by Tuesday and will reach well into the 70s by Wednesday.

The next chance for showers will come Wednesday night through late
in the week as a sfc and upper level low pressure system moves slowly
northeast across the upper midwest. This system will pull a
stronger cold front through our area very late next week with
potential for a significantly cooler airmass to move in for next


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1130 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

A mix of primarily ifr/lifr conditions will continue overnight due
to low cigs and scattered showers. Poor aviation conditions will
continue through the day Saturday as well with a continuation of
primarily ifr/lifr conditions due to low clouds and scattered

In addition a few thunderstorms are possible from around
midday Saturday through the afternoon and early evening. Winds
will stay out of the northeast at around 5-15 kts through Saturday


Issued at 311 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory conditions
through Sunday night although low pressure will continue to bring
rain showers and possible a thunderstorm.


Issued at 1109 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

The Sycamore Creek is nearing its crest over a foot above
bankfull, and will begin its slow recession which may modulated
by any additional rainfall Friday into Saturday. Other rivers
approaching bankfull the next few days include the Red Cedar above
Williamston, the Looking Glass near Eagle, and the Grand at Ionia.
The current forecasts are dependent on roughly another 0.75 inches
falling in those basins through Saturday morning. Will hold off
on flood advisories for those rivers until confidence is higher.


.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Laurens
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