Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 020640
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT LIGHT TRADE WINDS TO START RETURNING TO THE SMALLER ISLANDS
BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOLLOW BY SOME STRENGTHENING OVER
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. A POCKET OF DRY AIR NOW DRAPED OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...WILL SLOWLY BECOME WETTER AS THE TRADE WINDS
RETURN. SO...THE ABSENCE OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY REAPPEAR MOST
LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS SHOWERS FOR THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS
ESPECIALLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
FOR THE LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE ANALYSIS OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT FOR THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REVEALED A POCKET OF DRY AIR OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. THIS POCKET OF DRY AIR STARTED OVER THE BIG ISLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD WITH ITS CORE NOW OVER OAHU.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THIS CORE TO EASE OVER KAUAI
THURSDAY AND FILL THERE BY FRIDAY. IN OTHER WORDS...ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL ISLANDS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...CALLING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS FOR ESPECIALLY KAUAI AND OAHU IS LIKELY WELL OVER DONE. THIS
ADJUSTMENT WILL BE DONE FOR THE 4AM PACKAGE.

THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS STILL HAS A GOOD GRIP ON
THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN WHERE THERE IS A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. BUT THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO START PULLING OUT THURSDAY...AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER 24 HOURS
BEFORE THESE TWO ISLANDS START FEELING THE TRADES AGAIN.

FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...THE TRADES SHOULD IN THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RANGE WITH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SHOWERS. THE TRADES WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO FAVOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR AREAS.

THE TRADES ARE ON TAP TO REACH MODERATE SPEEDS AT THE START OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK. THIS MEANS A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND REGIME WITH A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN TRADE SHOWERS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES AT THE UPPER LEVELS.
SO THIS TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE RATHER BENIGN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A TRADE WIND FLOW OVER WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL BRING IN A
FEW SHOWERS...AND SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. NO AIRMETS ARE
EXPECTED HOWEVER.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA IN THE WINDIER
MARINE ZONES AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TRADE
WINDS STRENGTHEN.

A FOR THE SURF...A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE HAS RESULTED TO SEVERAL FAST-MOVING LOWS THAT HAVE
GENERATED SWELLS AIMED AT HAWAII. SMALL TO MODERATE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
MAINTAINING SEASONABLY-SIZED MODERATE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES. PEAKS IN SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...
APPROACHING BUT STAYING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. OTHERWISE...A SMALL
AND RELATIVELY SHORT-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...PEAK
THURSDAY AND SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

LAU







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