Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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000
FXHW60 PHFO 271330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND WEAK NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE STATE. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN...AND CONDITIONS WILL
DRY...SLOWLY OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS DROPPED OFF RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AROUND THE STATE...
BUT CLOUD MOTIONS UPWIND SUGGESTED THAT THE TRADE WINDS MIGHT PICK
UP A LITTLE BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH REMAINING BELOW THE CRITERIA
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE LONGER TREND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD EVEN
LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

ALOFT...BROAD RIDGING PREVAILED OVER THE STATE...CRUSHING THE
INVERSION DOWN TO BELOW ITS USUAL HEIGHT. THE AIR MASS REMAINED
QUITE DRY...BUT STABLE STRATOCUMULI PERSISTING UPWIND MOVED ASHORE
LOCALLY ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES. THESE STABLE CLOUDS PRODUCED LITTLE
RAIN...LIMITED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY TO WINDWARD SLOPES.

GUIDANCE PREDICTED ONLY GRADUAL CHANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT BY
WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A FEEBLE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONSENSUS
PREDICTED LITTLE WATER VAPOR TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND THE BROAD
MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLANDS AT THE
SAME TIME WILL PROVIDE MOST OF ITS SUPPORT TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS. THUS...RELATIVELY LITTLE RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS WELL. LIGHT
TRADE WINDS WILL RECOVER GRADUALLY OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS...PERHAPS PRODUCING MORE
RAIN THAN THE FRONT ITSELF.

BY MONDAY...MOST SOLUTIONS PREDICTED A SECOND...STRONGER FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...TURNING WINDS SOUTHERLY AGAIN AHEAD OF
IT. GUIDANCE DISAGREED SOMEWHAT ABOUT HOW MUCH SUPPORT THIS FEATURE
WILL RECEIVE FROM ALOFT...BUT GENERALLY PORTRAYED MUCH MORE ABUNDANT
WATER VAPOR ACCOMPANYING IT THAN THE FIRST FRONT. MORE RECENT
GUIDANCE ALSO AGREED BETTER IN PREDICTING THIS SECOND FRONT TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST DOWN THE ARCHIPELAGO STARTING MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS MAY SEE ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY...AND LANAI COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON.

AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF HIGHER TERRAIN ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY...AND
THIS AIRMET WILL PROBABLY BE DROPPED SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION HAS BEEN DROPPED...WITH
CEILINGS RUNNING GENERALLY ABOVE 4000 FEET ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY
OVERNIGHT...AND SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THE NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL LIKELY WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
SURF...THESE SWELLS THREATENED TO BUILD SEAS TO ABOVE THE THRESHOLD
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RYSHKO
AVIATION...JACOBSON





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