Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 222151

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
251 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Near normal temperatures will persist across central
California through Friday with a warming trend this weekend into
early next week. Otherwise...thunderstorms will be possible over
the Sierra Nevada each afternoon and evening through Thursday.


.DISCUSSION...An upper low remains nearly stagnant off the central
California coast this afternoon...bringing another shot of showers
and thunderstorms to the Sierra Nevada this afternoon and early
evening. Showers were developing across the Sierra from Fresno
county north toward Yosemite National Park. Any storms that do
form are forecast to move north northeast. The HRRR and high res
ARW are showing very little activity this afternoon and evening
while the NMM and NAM are showing quite a bit more activity.
Either looks like the Sierra should see quite a bit less
activity compared to the past few days.

In addition to thunderstorms...the upper low has kept temperatures
seasonable across the area....with San Joaquin Valley readings
forecast to top out in the mid 90s.

The upper low is forecast to move slowly east southeast into
southern California early Wednesday afternoon...resulting in an
increase in thunderstorm activity. The high res models are in good
agreement tomorrow...especially from Sequoia National Park
northward. The movement of storms tomorrow will switch to a more
westerly direction...with possible thunderstorm cloud blow off
possibly entering the foothills and valley by the early evening

There is a possibility of thunderstorms again on
Thursday...however confidence is much lower compared to today and
especially Wednesday.

Upper level high pressure will begin to build over the desert
southwest Friday into the weekend resulting in a warming trend
across the region. Triple digits will once again be possible over
the San Joaquin Valley Saturday and continue into the weekend.

Dry weather will also prevail across the area Friday into at least
early next week with high pressure firmly in place.

Unfortunately the above normal temperatures do not look to come to
an end anytime soon. According to the Climate Prediction Centers 8
to 14 day outlook (valid from August 30th through September 5th)
there is a good chance of above normal temperatures for the entire
west coast.


.AVIATION... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will occur over the
Sierra after 20z today through 03z Wednesday. Areas of smoke are
possible Near Yosemite National Park in association with the South
Fork Wildfire. Otherwise VFR conditions can be expected over much of
the central CA interior during the next 24 hours.


Please see SFOAQAHNX for an Air Quality Alert




The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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