Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 121120
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
320 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDWEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING SPRING-LIKE
WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND DRIFT EASTWARD TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WITH THE FRONT FALLING APART AS
IT TRIES TO MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY. IT WILL BRING JUST SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TO THE CWFA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO EDGE DOWN A FEW DEGREES TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY.

A RATHER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE BACK IN THE MID
70S IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...LOWER FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN
COUNTY DESERT BOTH DAYS.

IN THE NEAR TERM...PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING IN THE CENTER OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AGAIN THIS MORNING...AND IT WILL BE DENSE IN
SOME AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. DESPITE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAYBE A BIT LESS COVERAGE. THEN AS THE RIDGE
REBUILDS WE CAN EXPECT PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG TO
CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO
CALIFORNIA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE PROMISE OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE ECM SOLUTION CONTINUES TO HAVE A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
IS A BIT SLOWER AND WETTER THAN THE GFS. THE ECM HOLDS ON TO SOME
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS MOVES
THE SYSTEM OUT BY THURSDAY EVENING. DESPITE THE FASTER TIMING OF
THE GFS BOTH MODELS HINT OF A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN ADDITION TO DECENT INTERACTION OF THE 300 MB JET. EITHER
WAY...THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA LOOK LIKE THEY WILL SEE
GOOD OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES.


&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR IN HAZE WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR IN MIST/FOG POSSIBLE TIL 18Z TODAY AND AGAIN AFTER 09Z SAT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 12 2016... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-12       76:1921     46:1903     54:1983     27:1949
KFAT 02-13       79:1921     43:1903     56:1987     24:1949
KFAT 02-14       79:1924     46:1903     55:1986     25:1949

KBFL 02-12       80:1921     42:1919     56:1957     20:1901
KBFL 02-13       83:1924     49:1949     55:1986     25:1908
KBFL 02-14       78:2014     47:1990     55:1986     21:1903
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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