Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37
000
FXUS66 KHNX 282240
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
240 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING COOL...WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW ROUNDS THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE
REGION IS CURRENTLY ON THE INFLOW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH GOOD
DYNAMICS AND LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY...OROGRAPHIC UPFLOW WILL FAVOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND SIERRA NEVADA. PRECIP VALUES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM FEW ONE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE VALLEY TO
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...A STRONG +100KT JET WILL CONTINUE TO
EXIST OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE DISTRICT TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
WHILE THE JET WILL BEGIN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO
RE-EVALUATE IF THE WIND ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND
400 PM PST.

THE UPPER LOW PRODUCING TODAY/S WEATHER WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD
AND BE CENTERED NEAR SANTA BARBARA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...
WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. MODELS PROGS LESS INSTABILITY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINS OFFSHORE...ALONG
WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE UPPER LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH END
OF THE VALLEY AND ACROSS MOST OF KERN COUNTY.

BY MONDAY...THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. YET...A SECOND
STORM WILL THEN DROP FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALSO MOVE
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS NEXT STORM WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION ON MONDAY. YET...
SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIP WATER CHARTS SHOWING THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE MORE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THEREFORE...WILL HAVE TO
WORK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE WEST COAST DURING THE SECOND
ROUND OF WEATHER. ONE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO STORMS IS THAT
THE SECOND WILL MOVE FASTER AND EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...WHILE TUESDAY MAY SEE SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS...THE TREND WILL BE TO GO DRY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
...THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL RETURN AND PROVIDE A BLOCKING PATTERN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...WIDESPREAD IFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN SHOWERS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS OR
GREATER WILL OCCUR IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH
06Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962
KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888
KFAT 03-02       82:1921     48:1976     57:1986     26:1953

KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907
KBFL 03-02       87:1926     50:1919     57:2009     28:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 4000
FEET FOR THE CAZ096-097.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST
MONDAY CAZ095.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ095-098-099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.