Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 241511
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1111 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push east across the region through this
afternoon, resulting in another sunny and warm day. Above normal
temperatures will continue through the weekend as a series of
upper level disturbances push through the region. This will bring
a chance of showers and thunderstorms from time to time through
the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure will remain in place across the region
through this afternoon. Outside of a few high level clouds pushing
up over the ridge and a few diurnal cumulus, mostly sunny skies
are expected. As the airmass continues to modify, expect highs a
bit warmer than what we saw on Monday, with highs in the upper 70s
to the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As the surface high moves off to the east tonight into Wednesday,
some return flow will develop as the low level southwesterly flow
begins to increase. The combination of a weak mid level impulse
moving through the lower Ohio Valley and some developing waa could
lead to isolated to scattered shower and possibly thunderstorm
development off to our southwest later tonight. If this does
develop, it will lift northeast toward our area late tonight into
early Wednesday morning. Will therefore allow for some lower
chance pops to work into our southwest late, but with little if
any instability progged across our area, will keep any pcpn as
just showers through Wednesday morning.

In continued southwesterly low level flow and waa, we should push
up into the lower 80s through Wednesday afternoon. This will allow
for us to destabilize through the day and with another mid level
short wave lifting northwest across the area Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night, expect scattered shower and thunderstorms to
develop. We will destabilize once again through the day on
Thursday as we warm back up into the lower 80s. However, with a
little bit of mid level ridging possibly redeveloping across the
region, think thunderstorm development will be more limited so
will keep pops in the lower chance category through Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The H5 ridge continues to build up over the east coast into the
weekend. This will lock the summer pattern in for the extended.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s each day. Scattered diurnal
convection will also be the rule. Went with only chance pops each
day...tapering off overnight. Low temperatures should be mild
through the period, as they will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be centered southeast of the area
today, providing dry conditions and light southwesterly winds. A
few fair weather cu will be possible this afternoon, but otherwise
SKC conditions expected until a band of cirrus spreads in from the
west later this afternoon.

A mid-level disturbance may trigger some shower activity over the
lower Ohio Valley after 00Z Wednesday that could drift into our
area towards daybreak Wednesday. Not overly confident in the rain
potential at this time given the limited moisture and forcing,
but do expect an increase in low/mid level clouds.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Hickman/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Kurz


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