Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 240556
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1256 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO
THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL
LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING DUE TO STRONG
MOIST ASCENT/LOW LEVEL JET. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS...NOT AS
HEAVY...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS AN EMBEDDED S/WV ROTATES NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE
A RELATIVE LULL IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED
S/WV. BUT THEN PCPN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO OUR WEST AS
ANOTHER S/WV AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. A WARM FRONTAL/DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP OFF THAT MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS AND MAY ACTUALLY
RISE IN SPOTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. A
BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ILN
AREA BY NOON MONDAY...GIVING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA.

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH THAT WILL
NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE WIND EVENTS...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GREATER
PRESSURE CHANGE CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
GUSTS IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
     THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD TO START MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
READINGS WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MEAN TROF AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AT MID WEEK. OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH DEPARTING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE DRY FCST THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS
VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM
DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM
CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL
BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT
NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A NOTED SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN WINDS WITH INCREASED GUSTS WILL
OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE LOW WILL MEAN 30-40KT GUSTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY BY
THIS TIME...AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK UP
BY THEN. NRN TAF SITES AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY SEE THE
MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH 6Z BEFORE BREAKING UP BEYOND VALID TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS







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