Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 311016
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
616 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING VERY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE 2 OR 3 DEGREES
ABOVE THE VALUES FROM YESTERDAY...THOUGH THIS FORECAST (MID TO
UPPER 80S) REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THIS FRONT PRESENTS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
DAY...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
UNCERTAIN. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT APPEARS QUITE
WEAK...THOUGH THE WIND PATTERN AND THETA-E FIELDS SHOW A LITTLE
MORE DEFINITION IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER. OVERALL...MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO THE FRONT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL...WITH PWATS
REMAINING BELOW AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A NARROW RIBBON OF GREATER
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
NOTED IN NAM/GFS PROJECTIONS. OF GREATEST CONCERN IS THE LAYER OF
VERY WARM AIR CENTERED ROUGHLY AROUND 600MB...DEPICTED ON JUST
ABOUT EVERY MODEL SOUNDING AVAILABLE. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE POOR MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE AREAL COVERAGE SPECTRUM. THE MAIN CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS
THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40
KNOTS THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER. IF ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...SHEAR OF THAT MAGNITUDE WOULD ASSIST IN STORM
ORGANIZATION...POSSIBLY PRESENTING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR
LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE CAN BE ATTAINED IN
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF EXPECTED STORMS AND THE INSTABILITY PROFILE
(PERHAPS THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING WILL ASSIST)...THIS THREAT WILL NOT
BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO. AS IT IS...POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE ILN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO DISRUPT THE
OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND SPEEDY UPPER FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A TREND THAT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WERE
LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (A RECURRING THEME IN THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A
LITTLE EACH DAY...FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU
AND THEN SOME MID CLOUDS UNTIL FRONT PUSHES EAST. ISOLATED SHRA
AND TSRA WITH FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE
INTO TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT


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