Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 231930
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
330 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017
A warm front will lift north across the area tonight.
This will usher in above normal temperatures that will last
well into next week. A low pressure system will move into the
Great Lakes on Sunday with another low lifting into the area
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Band of mid clouds will spread across the area this evening.
Precipitation associated with this will weaken as it heads into
the Tri-State late this afternoon. Additional showers will be
possible this evening, primarily north of I-70, but it appears
that anything that does occur will be brief and light. Have
backed down to slight chance PoPs. Temperatures will drop off
this evening, then after a warm front lifts north, winds will
turn south and temperatures will rise.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Area will be in the warm sector through the period. Southerly
winds will bring an influx of moisture which will result in
quite a bit of cloud cover. Despite this, temperatures will be
rather mild. MOS blend seemed to have a reasonable handle on
both highs and lows. Not out of the question that a few showers
developing across Indiana could move into western counties late
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weakening upper level low pressure system will lift slowly
northeast from the mid Mississippi Valley on Saturday to the
eastern Great Lakes through Monday. Several pieces of mid/upper
level energy will rotate around the low and across our area
through the weekend leading to fairly high pops and occasional
showers. Instability remains fairly meager through Saturday
although there is a bit of an uptick in the mucapes during the
afternoon and into the evening which could lead to a few
embedded thunderstorms. With a warm air mass in place on
Saturday, highs will range from the upper 60s northwest to the
lower 70s across the southeast. The main upper level trough axis
will pivot up across our region late Saturday night and into
Sunday afternoon. Some slightly better instabilities will
develop out ahead of this which should lead to some better
chances of thunder for later Sunday morning and into the
afternoon, especially across eastern portions of our area. Highs
on Sunday will generally be in the 60s.
Brief mid level ridging will push east across the region Sunday
night, leading to a bit of a lull in any pcpn. However, another
upper level through axis will work east across the area Monday
into Tuesday. This will result in additional chances for showers
and embedded thunderstorms, primarily for Monday afternoon into
Tuesday morning. Ahead of this system, highs on Monday will warm
into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs cooling back down
into the 60s for Tuesday. Weak mid level ridging will then build
back into the region through mid week. This will lead to dry
conditions and slightly above normal temperatures for Wednesday
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid clouds will spread across the region early in the TAF
period. A warm front will lift across the area after 00Z. There
could be a few light showers with this, particularly from KDAY
to KCMH/KLCK. However, the probability is low and even if they
do occur, there would be no impact on flight category. So that
potential has not been included in the TAFs. Southeast winds
will veer to the south once this front moves through. In
addition, low level winds will increase in speed leading to low
level wind shear until around 13Z. Lower clouds will spread into
the area on Friday morning. Confidence is low concerning what
level these clouds will be. At this point have only lowered KDAY
to MVFR, but it is certainly possible that MVFR ceilings could
affect more areas.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Friday afternoon and evening.
MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Saturday night into Sunday
along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities will be possible again Monday night into Tuesday.