Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 201757
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
157 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK IN TERMS OF HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S UNDER LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. BECAUSE OF DRY LLVLS...AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY MORE THAN JUST SPOTTY CU AND CI BLOWOFF FROM APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD GENERALLY BE THIN AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TEMPERATURE CLIMB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TO WARMER LOWS TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER HIGHS ON MONDAY. MAY START TO SEE SOME CUMULUS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THICKER HIGH CLOUDS.

00Z MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT. THE 00Z NAM IS THE SLOWEST AND APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
NONETHELESS HAVE DELAYED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
JUST A BIT WHICH MEANS THAT SHOWERS MAY NOW EXTEND A LITTLE MORE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY STILL SEEM QUITE MINIMAL AND
HAVE MAINTAINED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE QUITE MILD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COOLER AIR MASS JUST STARTING TO
WORK IN ON TUESDAY...STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR NORMAL OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF ON THURSDAY AND WINDS TURN
AROUND TO SOUTHERLY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED BY THE
TIME THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
SLOWLY PULL EAST...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SE WINDS TO BECOME SW AS THE
HIGH PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS. BY 15-20Z ON MONDAY...MID
LEVEL CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP IN MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT THOUGH
STILL VFR...ALONG WITH SW WINDS IN THE 10-12KT RANGE BY END OF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JDR






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