Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 120607

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
107 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

An upper level disturbance will affect the area today. Another
low pressure system will pass across the region Wednesday night.


The cold front has moved east of the forecast area. West winds
are increasing and becoming gusty with further gradual
strengthening and veer through the night. Temperatures were
running several degrees warmer than forecast. The trend still
looks good, but given the starting point, have bumped up
temperatures. As the short wave over the western Great Lakes
drops into the region late tonight, the precipitation potential
will be on the increase.


The main threat on Tuesday will be the potential for the
aforementioned lake effect snow band or "streamer" to affect
parts of our area. The high resolution models have been
consistent on bringing this band into our region. All the
parameters are there for the possibility of bursts of heavy
snow, windy conditions, and temperatures slowly dropping through
the 20s. Snow squall potential could result in hazardous
driving conditions as motorists may encounter clear conditions
followed by near whiteout conditions. As a result, the SPS will
continue into Tuesday for the parts of the northern areas,
including northern metro Cincy, Dayton metro, Columbus metro
(Columbus and points south and west), and west central Ohio. The
"streamer" band is expected to pivot northeast through the day
as the low level flow backs, so that will keep accumulations
from getting out of hand in any one location. Most locations in
the band will receive 1 to 2 inches, but west central Ohio may
see local amounts around 3 inches. Outside of the band, some
scattered snow showers or flurries are forecast, but amounts
will be a half inch or less. Again, it will be windy with
sustained northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts, especially
in the convective band, between 30 and 40 mph. Temperatures will
drop into the upper teens northwest and the lower 20s southeast
by evening.

For Tuesday night, large mid level trough will move east. As
this occurs, winds will decrease at the surface and aloft as
well as back some from Lake Michigan. This process will allow
the band to weaken and break away to the northwest from our
region overnight. In fact, a surface ridge will build into our
region by Wednesday morning. Skies will clear in the south and
become partly cloudy in the north. Lows will generally drop into
the 10 to 15 degree range.


Any lake effect snows will be ending early Wednesday with gradual
improvement in the morning. Later in the day, a surface low will
track towards the region and chances for snow will increase later in
the day along the I-70 corridor between Dayton and Columbus,
spreading southward towards the Ohio River in the evening, and then
lifting northeastward overnight as the surface low crosses the
region. Given the cloud cover and northwest flow on Wednesday, this
should be the coolest day of the period with readings remaining in
the 20s to lower 30s. Continued northwest flow on Thursday will see
readings range from the upper 20s in the north to the upper 30s in

Temperatures will remain in the 30s on Friday and warm into the 40s
on Saturday as a warm front develops and lifts north of the area.
Warmer temperatures are expected through the weekend. A surface low
will track into the region Sunday or Sunday night. This is a
divergent point in the extended models with timing and strength
differences, as well as the upper level trough that will be driving
its evolution. As of this moment, it appears that the European is an
outlier. Have an increased chance for rain on Sunday, possibly
starting as a mix of rain and snow and likely changing to snow on
the back side Sunday overnight.

The airmass behind the low pressure system on the weekend is coming
from the west and not expected to be as cold as if the region were
in strong northwest flow. Surface flow remains west to southwest as
a brief ridge pushes into the area early Monday and return flow sets
up behind it.

Kept with the model blend given the increased potential for large
discrepancies beyond day 5, and a pretty good consensus in the
forecast through this time.


MVFR ceilings below 2000 ft just west of the region will spread
across the terminals early in the TAF period. West winds will
strengthen and be gusty while veering slightly. Snow showers
will spread across the region with a well defined band expected
to stream off of Lake Michigan. The greatest impacts from this
are expected from KDAY to KILN. Occasional IFR visibilities are
likely in this band. The snow band will pivot northeast through
the day and it is expected to impact the Columbus terminals late
in the day. After the initial drop early, ceilings are expected
to improve to above 2000 ft in the morning with further
improvement to VFR later in the day. Clouds will start to
scatter from the southwest late in the period. In addition, the
west northwest winds will slowly diminish around 00Z with gusts
eventually subsiding.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities along with wind gusts
to 25 kt possible Wednesday night.




SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Franks
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