Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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486
FXUS61 KILN 231747
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1247 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers may develop today ahead of a cold frontal boundary
entering Northwest Ohio. More showers will be possible tonight
when the boundary is forecast to lift back north as a warm
front. A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms
late Friday, with severe weather possible. Colder air and brisk
winds will follow the front on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An embedded s/wv within the west/southwest flow aloft will
combine with some low level moist convergence to produce some
showers, perhaps a thunderstorms, late this afternoon and this
evening. This should be mainly focused along and north of I-70.
Near term PoPs have been updated to reflect this.

Temperatures will continue to be anomalously warm, reaching the
mid and upper 60s, possibly attaining record highs at CMH and
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Front is forecast to lift north to Lake Erie tonight as a warm
front ahead of deepening low pressure moving to Illinois.
Showers will be possible in isentropic lift near the front,
mainly over northern locations.

For Friday, the low is expected to travel to Lake Michigan,
while a strong cold front swings into Indiana. Potent moisture
and temperature advection on a southerly low level jet will
cause convergence and instability to increase by afternoon,
resulting in a chance of thunderstorms well ahead of the cold
front. Thunderstorms will become likely in western counties by 6
pm Friday when the thunderstorms are forecast to congeal into a
line. Strong wind fields suggest better than average storm
organization and potency, and damaging wind gusts will be
possible with some of the storms.

Temperatures rising to the low and mid 70s should break daily
record highs, and monthly highs will also be in jeopardy (see
Climate section below).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A strong mid level jet of 100 plus kts to pivot northeast from the
Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes Friday evening. Deepening surface
low to eject northeast through the Great Lakes Friday night with a
strong cold front sweeping east across ILN/s FA between 06Z and 09Z.
Numerical models have generally trended further southeast with the
surface wave, closer to previous ECMWF solutions. With surface
dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s model solutions are showing
MLCAPES values of 750 to 1000 j/kg Friday evening ahead of this
surface front. Forecast soundings show favorable shear for initially
supercells transitioning to linear storm mode. The threat exists for
damaging winds, large hail and the possibility of tornadoes. The
latest SPC SWODY2 has expanded the enhanced risk for severe storms
Friday night to include most of ILN/s FA. Will continue to highlight
this severe weather threat in the HWO product.

In the wake of the front windy conditions are likely in the CAA
pattern later Friday night into Saturday. Momentum transfer method
applied to forecast soundings across west central Ohio indicate wind
gusts up to 40 mph will be possible into Saturday afternoon.

A few showers will be possible Saturday across west central Ohio due
to the passage of the mid level trof but the best moisture and lift
looks to stay north of ILN/s FA. Surface high pressure to build in
Sunday providing dry weather and more seasonable Temperatures.

Model solutions then diverge on the timing and placement of systems
in quick zonal flow. GFS solution showing wave moving through on
Monday, while ECMWF is holds pcpn off until Monday night with a warm
front lifting north. Due to uncertainty will limit pops to a slight
chance late Sunday night into Monday. This pcpn may start as a
rain/snow mix, changing to rain Monday.

A better threat of rain showers looks to occur late Monday into
Tuesday, as this front returns north as a warm front with a surface
wave of low pressure developing in the central plains.

With this low traveling through the Great Lakes a sfc cold front
sweeps east through the Ohio Valley Wednesday. In the warm sector
ahead of this front will allow for highs in the middle 50s to lower
60s for a chance for thunder.

Northwest flow develops with surface high pressure building in next
Thursday. This will provide dry weather and more seasonable
temperatures in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An embedded s/wv within the west/southwest flow aloft will
combine with some low level moist convergence to produce some
showers, perhaps a thunderstorms, late this afternoon and this
evening. This should be mainly focused just north of the KDAY,
KCMH, and KLCK terminals. Low level moisture has resulted in
MVFR ceilings, but they should rise to VFR by late in the day or
by early this evening.

Showers, perhaps a thunderstorm, will shift to the north tonight
as focus shifts. Models suggest we should see mainly VFR
conditions.

On Friday, low pressure will move from the mid Mississippi
Valley to near southern Lake Michigan toward 00Z Saturday. An
attendant cold front will be located north/south from the low.
Our region should remain in the warm sector for most of the day.
Then as upper level energy and low level forcing increase,
showers and thunderstorms will form near or just to the west of
the region, moving east through the region Friday night. It will
be breezy ahead of the front with wind gusts in the 25 to 30
knot range possible, especially after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Friday night. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities possible Saturday and Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures
Date     CVG           CMH                DAY
Thu 2/23 72(1985/1996) 66(1906/1985) 68(1985)
Fri 2/24 72(1930)      72(1961)      67(1930/1961)

February Record Highs

CVG 76 set 2/10/1932
CMH 75 set 2/26/2000
DAY 73 set 2/11/1999 and 2/25/2000

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Hickman
CLIMATE...



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