Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 210846
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
446 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST LINGERING SHOWER WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE COLD POOL OF AIR WORKING IN UNDERNEATH THE
LINGERING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAFS AND EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR FOG...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. CIGS
WILL LOWER TOWARDS 12Z AS ANOTHER H5 S/W ROTATES AROUND A UPPER
LOW WHICH IS CLOSING OFF. ERN TAFS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF SEE SHRA THIS MORNING...SOME WHICH MAY DROPS VSBYS TO MVFR.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES






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