Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 301715
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
115 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z NAM REMAINS FARTHER NORTH THAN BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF WITH THE SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ALL THREE MODELS KEEP
THE BULK OF TE BETTER FORCING TO OUR NORTH...BUT THINK THE FARTHER
SOUTH SOLUTIONS AT LEAST WARRANT KEEPING SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTH FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PASSES TO
THE EAST...IT WILL EVENTUALLY DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TOUGH TO RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR EAST WITH THE
FRONT...BUT GIVEN THEE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER/POSSIBLY MID 60S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE HIGH SLIPS INTO THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD
FRONT SWINGS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE PACK OF OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS LEAD BY THE
GFS/CMC. THE GFS/CMC ARE SHOWING BETTER CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS THINKING SO WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE FA THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE GFS/CMC PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...STALLING IT IN
KENTUCKY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW CAUSES A
RIPPLE ON THE FRONT AND PULLS PCPN BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIKE IT STAYS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...SO ONLY WENT
WITH SHOWERS FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

BUMPED HIGHS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONLY WILL RECOVER INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN WITH THE HIGH
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
BE THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY A TROF AXIS WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS LIMITING TEMPERATURES IN THE NE TO MID 40S WHILE
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  CU AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL PRESENT ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN VFR CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA. LIMITED ANY RAIN MENTION TO KCMH AND KLCK.
ADDITIONAL CU AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK





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