Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KILN 030233
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1033 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN A MOIST...LOW LEVEL
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. A SOMEWHAT COLDER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
UNDER WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN WEAK LIFT GENERATED BY A DISTURBANCE ALOFT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT
TRAVELING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF
SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S
FA WEDNESDAY. WILL INCLUDE LKLY POPS EAST AND HIGH CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEST. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER DURG THE AFTN
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST
WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT OFF TO OUR
EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM
NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH IT WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

COOL...MOIST...LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH ALL LOCATIONS SEEING MVFR CEILINGS AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOCAL
IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AS WELL...BUT GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE
PLACE AS TO WHICH LOCATIONS WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT. BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WOULD SEEM TO BE
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE. HOWEVER....THESE CEILINGS COULD
EVEN DEVELOP AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. FOR NOW...HAVE ALL
CEILINGS DROPPING INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT AND
WILL MONITOR IF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE PREDOMINATE.

ON TUESDAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO RETURN TO
VFR BY 14Z...AND CEILINGS TO RETURN TO VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A STRAY SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.

SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER FOR A PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.