Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 230609
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
109 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017
Low pressure tracking east through the southern U.S. will be off
of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday morning. High pressure and an
upper level ridge will be in place for the Ohio Valley from then
through about Wednesday morning, when low pressure tracking to the
Great Lakes pushes a cold front through the area.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Axis of weak moisture convergence remains across the southern part
of the forecast area. Have seen off and on light showers in this
zone and will likely continue to see this into the overnight
hours. But late tonight expect an increase in shower coverage,
especially across the southern and eastern counties as energy
rotating around low pressure to the south swings into the region.
Meanwhile fog in northwest Ohio should develop a bit further south
into areas north/northwest of Dayton. There could end up being
some dense patches in the fog later tonight. Forecast lows look
reasonable. Just bumped up winds a bit with fairly tight gradient
to remain through the night.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Rain will be over eastern CWA and exit to the east through the
day. Low stratus over northwestern CWA - if it develops - will be
hard pressed to move anywhere. Daytime highs will be nearly steady
and only see a 2-3 degree increase from overnight lows. Overnight
temperatures will not see large falls as the cold air will be slow
to offset the high humidity air but still fall into the lower 40s.
High pressure ridge crosses Tuesday and return southerly flow sets
up in the west by evening and then by later overnight in the east.
This return flow will inhibit lows from dropping off much from
Monday night`s values - again within a few degrees of 40.
As the low moves towards Lake Michigan by daybreak Wednesday, a
slight chance of a pre-frontal shower is possible in the far
northwest late Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A significant pattern change will take place during the period as
the well above normal temperatures are replaced by a more seasonal
The period begins with a sfc low located mid MS valley. Models are
showing a little spread on the exact location. Trailing south from
the low is a cdfnt. As the low lifts ne through the Great Lakes on
Wednesday, the front will push across the fa, so expect some
scattered showers to affect the region. Temperatures will still be
well above normal with highs ranging from around 50 in West Central
Ohio to the upper 50s in the the Lower Scioto Valley and NE KY.
Colder air will begin to filter into the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, but thicknesses should be warm enough that any
scattered pcpn will fall as rain. By Thursday afternoon the
thicknesses will start to be cold enuf for snow to mix in as an ern
U.S. upper trof takes hold.
Scattered lake effect snow showers will affect the region Thursday
night into thru the weekend as upper level disturbances drop across
the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be slightly below normal with
highs in the lower to mid 30s and lows in the 20s.
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper level low pressure system currently centered over
northern Georgia will lift northeast to off the Mid Atlantic Coast
today through tonight. Moisture rotating around the low will
continue to spill north and westward across our area through today
before beginning to shift off to the east with the low tonight.
Cigs are quite variable across the region early this morning
ranging from low IFR across our far northwest to mid and high
level cloudiness across central portions of our area and then a
lower VFR stratocumulus deck across our southeast. Will therefore
start out all of the TAF sites as VFR for the first several hours
of the period, and then slowly lower cigs into MVFR and then IFR
as the low levels moisten up later this morning. Pcpn is also
somewhat spotty across the area with the best coverage southeast
of the TAF sites across far southeast Ohio and Eastern Kentucky.
Will therefore start off with primarily VCSH type coverage and
then allow for some prevailing MVFR showers to fill in as we head
toward daybreak. Periods of showers will then persist through much
of the morning before the better chance starts to shift back off
to the east through this afternoon.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday. MVFR
ceilings possible Wednesday and the again Thursday into Friday.