Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 280631
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
231 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

A strong upper ridge of high pressure along the U.S. east coast will
keep us in a summer like pattern until late next week.   A series of
weak upper disturbances will bring chances of thunderstorms through
the weekend as they move across our region.

High pressure will bring dry weather Monday and Tuesday.  An upper low
moving towards the great lakes will bring a chance of thunderstorms
again from the middle of next week on...along with slightly cooler
temperatures late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 957 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016

UPDATE...
Current radar mosaic shows scattered showers and thunderstorms
tracking across western portions of Central Indiana as mentioned
in previous forecast. As a result, minimal changes. Current temps
across the area are ranging from the low to upper 70s and are
still expected to only drop into the upper 60s overnight. Updated
grids have been sent.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Water vapor satellite indicated a strong upper ridge along the
east coast while an upper low was over eastern Colorado. So far it
has been pretty quiet across Indiana today...but an upper
disturbance moving into the lower Mississippi valley was producing
scattered to numerous thunderstorms over lower and middle
Mississippi valley this afternoon.

Some of these thunderstorms may spread into western and central parts of our
region by late evening as an upper disturbance moves our way.  Will mention
a chance of thunderstorms from INDY and westward towards midnight and a
slight chance of storms elsewhere as an disturbance passes by.

Given that there is no change of air mass lows tonight should again
be in the lower to middle 60s which is close to a MOS blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Forecast focus continue to be rain chances over the weekend as a couple
of weak upper disturbances move from the southern and central plains
towards the great lakes.  Air mass will remain moist and unstable
over the weekend and in addition models move a weak cold front our
way Sunday. Models indicate thunderstorms will be partially diurnal
and will mention chance POPS Saturday afternoon and Sunday and
slight chance POPS most other periods through Sunday evening.

After that will go dry as drier air and weak high pressure builds
into our region late Sunday night and Monday.

There will be a bit more clouds which may limit temperatures
Saturday.  But overall highs will be in the lower to middle 80s all
3 days while lows will be in the middle to upper 60s over the
weekend and lower 60s Monday morning.

&&


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...
Issued at 231 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

During the long term, an upper trough will move into the area. A
surface frontal system will also move through. The result will be
rain chances through most of the period.

The GFS appears to be well overdoing rain chances early in the
period given expected forcing at that time. Its influence on
SuperBlend requires cutting back on SuperBlend`s PoPs on Tuesday.

Above normal temperatures early in the period will give way to near
to slightly below normal values by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 280600z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1230 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Starting to see a few weak echoes in central Indiana and hi res
output suggest this will increase for the next few hours. Included a
VCSH for this, but with the weaker looking echoes and unimpressive
moisture in the time heights will not include any category
reductions. After around 14-16z forecast soundings show wind gusts
of 20-25 kts developing out of 180-210 and continuing through around
sunset. Could see some scattered thunderstorm development during the
afternoon as well. Confidence on timing/placement is still fairly
low, but parameters look a little better than they have the past
couple of days so will bring in a prob30 after 19z.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...CP



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