Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIND 232025
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
425 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

A low pressure system over the Rockies will bring showers and a few
thunderstorms to central Indiana this weekend and early next week.
Then, a southern system will bring more shower chances to the area
late next week. Low level winds will be mostly from the south and
southwest which will result in mostly mild temperatures with highs
mostly in the 60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Late this Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Timing and coverage of showers will be the main focus tonight.

Models continue with warm air advection over all of central Indiana
tonight. 305K isentropic analysis was showing an area of lower
condensation pressure deficits lifting into areas north of
Interstate 74 this evening, along with a warm front. Currently,
there were a few sprinkles from an AC deck, showing up in the obs
south of Interstate 74 and lifting slowly northeast. The High
Resolution Rapid Refresh supports any sprinkles or light showers
lifting northeast this evening and out of the area before Midnight.
With very dry low levels of the atmosphere, will stick with low
chance pops during the afternoon southwest and evening northeast.
With a low level jet moving into our northwestern counties, could
see a few gusts overnight per BUFKIT soundings.

With the warm air advection continuing, overnight lows should only
fall to the mid 40s and lower 50s per blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Unsettled weather is expected over much of the short term. Timing
and coverage of showers and thunderstorms along with temperatures
will be the main focus.

Models agree that an upper low, currently over the Rockies, will
open up as it pivots across the lower Great Lakes on Sunday
afternoon. As it does, an associated surface low will move over the
area and result in a stalled out or slow moving cold front nearby.
With warm, moist and unstable inflow combined with the lift, should
see showers move in from west to east Friday night and become
widespread by Saturday. Best chances look to be Saturday afternoon
to Sunday morning.

Instability progs support at least isolated thunder Saturday through
Sunday.

Blend temperatures look ok. 850 millibar temperature afternoon high
temperature forecasting chart suggests going with temperatures at or
slightly above model and mos blend with highs in the 60s. Could even
see 70 degrees south of Bloomington on Friday. Overnight lows will
be only in the 50s.




&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday Night/...

Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Back to back low pressure systems will affect the forecast area
during the extended period. The first system is progged to enter
central Indiana Monday morning, and thunderstorms were introduced
into the forecast with this issuance. The thunderstorm threat will
be best during the afternoon and evening with best heating of the
day. Rain showers will linger into Tuesday morning, but the
thunderstorm threat should diminish early Monday night. After dry
conditions around mid-week, the next system will track through the
Southern and Central Plains and into the Lower Midwest by
Thursday. As a result, rain chances will increase late in the
period. Meanwhile, temperatures through the period will be above
normal with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /Updated discussion for KIND TAF/...

Issued at 417 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

VFR visibility through the period. MVFR cloud decks develop
after 241500.

Southeast winds running above 10 knots through the night and
gusting from south over 20 knots by 241500.

Shower band to the west continues evaporation along east edge
so do not anticipate showers reaching KIND. Do expect scattered
cloud around 5000 feet this evening as remnants of these showers
approach.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...Tucek


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.