Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 011137
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
737 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELLING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD


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