Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 010433
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1231 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL INVADE CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING A KILLING FREEZE TO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA THIS
EVENING AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...OTHERWISE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING. IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT CONTINUED WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO CLOSE TO
NORMAL AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THERE
WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 952 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS AND WILL
DIMINISH ELSEWHERE NEXT FEW HOURS.  COULD SEE A DUSTING ON GRASSY
AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WILL DOWNPLAY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW A LITTLE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST DUE TO RECENT RADAR
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
REGARDING TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ALL NIGHT
BASED ON MESOSCALE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH EVENING GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND
OVERNIGHT GUSTS TO 25 MPH. WITH SUCH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...PREFER COLDER 12Z GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH MAYBE NOT QUITE AS
COLD WITH WINDS STAYING UP. THIS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN A HARD FREEZE
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THERE IS EVEN A SMALL
CHANCE WE COULD BREAK THE NOVEMBER 1 RECORD LOW OF 24 DEGREES.
TRICK OR TREAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE 30S WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...MODEL
RH TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING THE COLUMN DRYING ON SATURDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY AS CIRRUS
IS EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER TOP A SHARP MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT. SHOULD ALSO SEE INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

MOS TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WITH MODERATING
TRENDS LOOKING GOOD. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS IN STORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ONLY BE SIGNIFICANT IN UNLIKELY EVENT THAT WE DO NOT SEE A HARD
FREEZE TONIGHT. THEN...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE AND BECOME NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ON TAP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY...THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LONG
TERM...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST IT EXITS THE AREA. ALSO...00Z
ECMWF AND 12Z DIFFER EXTENSIVELY ON HOW AN UPPER LOW IS HANDLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST USA. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN LONG TERM.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THAT TIME. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WENT DRY THEN.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD...BUT THEY WILL COOL DOWN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...BUT PRECIP HAS
TAPERED OFF OVER TAR SITES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVAILING
FLIGHT CATEGORY BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 13 TO 16 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THEY
WILL TAPER OFF TO 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...TDUD

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