Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 240222

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1022 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Issued at 725 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Breezy conditions diminish in the early overnight. Expecting a
quiet night with some clouds around especially by the lake and
lows in the 40`s. Monday will be dry with highs in the 50s and
approaching the low 60s.


Issued at 1002 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Main question this evening is if any lake effect rain showers will
develop overnight and early Monday. Not much change in previous
shift`s expectations with latest guidance suggesting minimal lake
induced cape with equilibrium levels 6-7kft. One factor that is
looking more favorable is winds fcst to veer nnw creating a long
fetch, albeit for a fairly short period. Latest NAM/HRRR/ARW are
indicating some light qpf over Berrien County around daybreak
while RAP is dry. Given negatives discussed above and lack of
upstream development attm, maintained dry fcst.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Compact shortwave will move through the northern Great Lakes into
tonight. Rain was covering much of the U.P of Michigan with more
widely scattered showers into northern Lower Michigan. Further
south, effects of the wave will more limited, mainly in the form
of increased clouds overnight, breezy conditions this afternoon
and evening and maybe a chance for some light lake effect rain
showers after 6z as delta t`s drop to around 13 C with a NW fetch.
Several negatives for measurable precip with the lake effect
including low inversion heights, lack of deep moisture and limited
residence time given NW flow. Will maintain no more than 14 pops
for now and defer to eve shift to see if more materializes
upstream than current depicted by hi res models.

Otherwise forecast will become tranquil as cold front pushes
through the area, trimming about 10 degrees off of today highs for
expected afternoon temps on Monday.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Focus remains on approaching system to move out of the Dakotas
towards the region. Best chance for rainfall has been pushed back
somewhat with mainly NW areas seeing chances increase Weds
afternoon and then across the entire area Weds night. Have
expanded slight chance of thunder to all areas Weds night with at
least some instability to allow for an embedded storm or 2.

Trough lingers into Friday, but deeper moisture should be shunted
east with the main energy. This should result in a brief dry
period Thursday afternoon into Friday before another wave drops in
and brings chances of showers back. Temperatures will stay
seasonable in the wake of the mid week trough.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Core of the low level jet shifts east of the forecast area before
2am helping to allow for diminishing winds overnight. With that and
high pressure moving into the area, only real forecast issue for
this period will be the extent of cloud cover just around lake
near SBN especially overnight.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Fisher

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