Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIWX 061904
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
304 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

A PLEASANT EVENING IN STORE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WET CONDITIONS WILL
THEN RETURN FOR MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE 60S THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

PERFECT EARLY MAY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.
EXPECT MUCH OF TONIGHT TO BE QUIET AS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST
REMAINS TO THE NORTH. LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN PAST FEW
NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH A SOMEWHAT FASTER ARRIVAL TO ANY PRECIP
CHANCES AS SFC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA STARTING NEAR 12Z SAT AND THEN PROGRESSING
SE THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH GULF
MOISTURE WELL SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
FEW SHOWERS...RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS THE FRONT PASSES. BEST CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION STILL RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF AREA
GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE TIMING OF LATE AM INTO EARLY PM BUT SEVERE
CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL (BUT NOT NON-ZERO). SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS
PUSHED MARGINAL RISK BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH GIVEN FASTER
TRENDS SEEMS REASONABLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES HIGHS IN THE NW WILL
BE REACHED EARLY WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BEFORE
SOME CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON RECOVERY IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR FAST
ENOUGH. HAVE MAINTAINED A CHC OF SHOWERS IN FAR SOUTHERN AREAS
INTO SAT EVENING...BUT NEXT FORECAST MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE AS
FRONT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER AROUND THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL AS VARIABLE
TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND ANY
PRECIPITATION. FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES MOVES INTO THE AREA.
BEST CHANCES ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS MAIN SFC
LOW IMPACTS THE REGION. SUPERBLEND OF GUIDANCE WANTED TO INTRODUCE
CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT EVEN LIKELY
POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE AND TIME FRAME.
WITH GULF OPEN CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER STORMS DURING HEIGHT
OF THE EVENT AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR
REMAIN NEAR BY. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH TRENDS.

THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH AS THE LOW PASSES TO BRING DECREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHC POPS THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME
BRIEF DRY PERIODS WILL LIKELY OCCUR...BUT CONFIDENCE IN MODELS TOO
LOW TO GET THAT DETAILED IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAINS FAIRLY SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY WX CONCERN IS
POSSIBLE LLWS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...AS LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOWING NOSE OF JET JUST
INTO NW IN BEFORE SINKING SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS BY THE END OF
THIS TAF PD. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE OUT LLWS IN THIS FORECAST AND
WILL REASSESS POTENTIAL DURING NEXT FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEAR AND JUST BEYOND THE
TAF PERIOD...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE PRECLUDES
MENTION IN THIS FORECAST.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.