Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290014
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
814 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BUT IT WILL BE
SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE A WARM FRONT THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A
COLD FRONT CLOSELY BEHIND. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN
TOMORROW MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

QUIET WX EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA...LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL TEMPERATURE
DROP OVERNIGHT. NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...HOWEVER LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S STILL ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PHASING NRN STREAM VORT MAXES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC
REFLECTION AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERSPREADING THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ANTICIPATING ALL RAIN WITH FROPA. WET BULB TEMPS THE LOWEST 3KFT
LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE BELOW FREEZING DURING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER SFC TEMPS NEAR 40F AND 5KFT WARM LAYER
AROUND +5C SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROZEN P-TYPES. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
POPS SUNDAY OR TEMPS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SURE BUT STEADY HGT RISES ACRS THE ERN US XPCD THIS PD AS CONUS FLW
ALOFT FLATTENS W/CONTD D7 MEANS SHOWING TROUGHING DVLPG THROUGH THE
WRN US.

HWVR TEMPERMENTAL NRN STREAM FLW ALG THE US/CANADA BORDER QUITE
FICKLE AS SERIES OF SW TROUGHS GENERALLY AMPLIFY EWD EVERY FEW DAYS.
FIRST SYS OF NOTE IN THE SHRT TERM SUN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WEAKER...MSTR STARVED SYS LT MON NIGHT AND GENERALLY DISCOUNTED.
ANOTHER SYS FOLLOWS AGAIN ON LT WED INTO FRI AS FNTL BNDRY STALLS
W-E ACRS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. MODELS MUCH MORE ADAMANT ON LL MSTR
RTN/ENTRAINMENT DURING THIS TIME PD YET HELD CLOSE TO PRIOR POPS
WHERE NEEDED. DO NOT XPC A WASHOUT BUT LTR PDS DO LOOK UNSETTLED.

TEMPS BY AND LARGE MODERATING TWD NORMAL TUE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

QUIET AVIATION WEATHER TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TOWARD MIDDAY SUNDAY.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REINFORCED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
PROVIDE AN HOUR OR TWO OF ONSHORE FLOW/NORTHWEST WINDS AT KSBN
BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND THEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ACROSS MONTANA THIS EVENING WILL REACH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW LEVEL
THEATE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE WILL ADVECT INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 17Z.
SOME LOW END POTENTIAL OF A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT ONSET OF
PRECIP...BUT STILL EXPECTING PRIMARILY RAIN. SFC WINDS TO BE
ENHANCED BY STRONG SFC PRESSURE FALLS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOUTH WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 30
KNOTS. SOME LOWER END MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MARSILI


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