Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 250941
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
441 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night
No real changes to the short term forecast. Models continue to show
the upper ridge shifting to the east, while the surface ridge shifts
west pushing the moisture to the west also. Dry air intrudes from the
east, helping to limit rain chances for area east of I-55 today and
tomorrow. Guidance values were low, slight chance or less, so went
with it. Kept the best rain chances in the southwest today and
generally west tomorrow. Guidance temps were good mid 70s/lower 90s,
the east may be warmer, but drier air was moving into the area,
dewpoints will be on decline through Friday so will hold off any heat
advisories.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday
The models and ensembles shows that the southeast US upper ridge
will fluctuate during the period. The GFS and Canadian models try to
put a tropical low pressure system over the Southeast US, east of
the cwa. The GFS model is less aggressive with this system over the
southeast US. There is still uncertainty with this system as it is
prog to come out of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile a
stationary surface boundary comes down northwest of the CWA. Manual
progs has a low coming out of the Eastern Gulf crossing northwest
Florida into Georgia. Meanwhile we will continue to have an active
northern stream storm track over the northern US during the period.
Pwats will range from 1.5 to 2 inches. We get some dry slotting from
the east if the tropical system comes on shore over the southeast US
from the Eastern Gulf per model guidance. So with this in mind will
stay close to lower model pops through the period. Regarding any
potential tropical activity, please see latest forecast updates from
the National Hurricane Center for details and reasoning on the
forecast for tropical systems. As far as temps are concern highs
will be in the lower with some middle 90s, which will bring heat
indices below 105 degrees. Lows will be in the lower to middle
70s./17/


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY THIS MORNING DUE TO
PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
JAN/GWO/GLH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       92  74  93  73 /  24  18  30  16
Meridian      94  74  94  72 /  13  12  12  10
Vicksburg     92  74  93  72 /  35  20  33  21
Hattiesburg   92  74  94  73 /  27  15  10  10
Natchez       90  74  90  73 /  42  27  32  20
Greenville    92  75  92  73 /  25  20  40  21
Greenwood     93  75  93  73 /  16  18  33  20

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

7/17/



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