Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KJAN 030219 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
919 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...
NO NEED FOR ANY REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
EVERYTHING IS RIGHT ON TRACK. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 70S AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY DAYBREAK. SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY BE SEEN IN THE MORNING HOURS AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTH WL MAINTAIN DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION AND LIMIT
CONVECTION AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT NORTH WIND 6KTS OR LESS IS
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

DISCUSSION... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW EDGES IN GRADUALLY FROM THE PLAINS. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS THANKFULLY LOW...BUT
CURRENT COOLER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MODIFYING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL (AT LEAST IN TERMS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES) BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT THE DRY AIR AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD MAKE FOR PLEASANT LOW
TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PATCH OR TWO OF FOG OR VERY LOW
CLOUDS AROUND IN THE EARLY MORNING (PARTICULARLY AROUND NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES)...BUT NO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS ANTICIPATED.

FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND MODEL CONSENSUS LOOKS
SUBTLY WARMER WITH MOISTURE CREEPING BACK IN SLOWLY. STILL SEEMS TO
BE A CHANCE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW TYPE DISTURBANCE PASSING MAINLY TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS WEEKEND TO BRING NON-NEGLIGIBLE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF ZONES. ALL THIS WAS COVERED
WELL IN THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...WHICH IS APPENDED BELOW.
/BB/

LONG RANGE...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS TX/S
PLAINS THROUGH END OF WORK WEEK BETWEEN UPPER LOWS ALONG EACH COAST
OF CONUS. DEEP LYR MOISTURE FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER MINIMAL IN
DEEP N/NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...RESULTING IN POPS REMAINING BELOW
SLGT CHC THRESHOLD. BY SAT...SOME SUBTLE CHANGES LOOK TO EVOLVE AS
GFS/EC BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY TOWARD AREA FROM THE NORTH.
ADDITIONALLY...PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR MCS FORMATION IN MID MS
VALLEY...AND WITH GENERAL N/NW FLOW CONTINUING SOME POTENTIAL WOULD
EXIST FOR REMNANTS OF SUCH A COMPLEX TO MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA. HENCE
FOR NOW HAVE ACCEPTED LOW POPS GENERATED BY MODEL BLEND. FOR NOW
MODELS AGREE ON SUN BEING A DRIER DAY AGAIN IN WAKE OF WEAK BOUNDARY
WHICH IS MORE OF A MOISTURE CHANGE THAN ANY SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE
CHANGE. IN FACT...MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW 850 MB TEMPS A BIT WARMER SUN
THAN SAT.

A STRONGER WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO GREAT LAKES REGION SUN/MON
RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OF THIS WEEK...BUT
SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW THIS NEW PATTERN WILL
ULTIMATELY EVOLVE. 00Z GFS SHOWS A DEEPER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WHILE
EC TRENDS TOWARD A MORE DEAMPLIFIED SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WITH WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. 00Z GEFS/12Z
ECENS LEAN TOWARD A SOLUTION MORE LIKE OP EC. FOR NOW HAVE JUST
ACCEPTED MODEL BLEND OF INCLUDING SOME POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
REGARDLESS OF ULTIMATE PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD EXPECT INCREASED DEEP
MOISTURE TO RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES LOOK RELATIVELY SEASONAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...AND MODEL BLEND LOOKS FINE. /AEG/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       61  87  64  89 /   0   2   3   3
MERIDIAN      57  88  61  90 /   3   5   4   5
VICKSBURG     59  86  61  88 /   0   2   3   3
HATTIESBURG   64  90  65  91 /   5  11   5   9
NATCHEZ       62  87  64  88 /   0   4   2   4
GREENVILLE    60  83  64  87 /   0   2   2   2
GREENWOOD     58  84  63  88 /   1   2   3   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.