Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 021535 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1035 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH THE ONLY
CHANGE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER
WARMING. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WL SLOW CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY BUT ISOLD
TO SCT AFTN/EVNG SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED. AWAY FROM
TSRA AREAS...VFR CONDS WL CONT THROUGH THIS EVNG. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBYS 10-13Z THU WL BE PSBL AT MOST TAF SITES. /22/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
GULF THROUGH ARKANSAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WERE THREE WELL
DEFINED VORT CIRCULATIONS ONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS... THE SECOND
ONE OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND THE THIRD ONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP NORTHWARD MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE COAST AS WELL AS SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WAS CENTERED ALONG THE GULF COASTAL AREA. HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WERE
MOVING OVER THE CWA FROM CONVECTION OFF THE GULF.

FOR THE SHORT TERM EXPECT THE UPPER TROUGH TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND IT
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS
THE LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. SO EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING AND DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE. PWATS WILL RANGE FROM 1.6 TO NEAR 2
INCHES...WHICH COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DRY LOCATIONS. ALSO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND SOME DECAPES > 1000 J/KG COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS DRYER AIR ALOFT MOVING
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HI-RES MODELS SHOWS SOME ISOLATED TO
LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY AND LITTLE
LESS COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AROUND HIGHS WILL
IN THE LOWER 90S. IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER ON THURSDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70. /17/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S... WITH
LOWS FALLING DOWN AROUND 70 EACH NIGHT.  LOW-END RAIN CHANCES...
GENERALLY 20-30%...WILL EXIST OVER MOST LOCALES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES...30-50%...LOOK TO
EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SKIRTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THAT
TIME FRAME.  CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED PRIMARILY FROM MID-
AFTERNOON UP TO SUNSET.  AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       94  71  94  72 /  27  18  23  15
MERIDIAN      92  70  92  70 /  19  14  23  18
VICKSBURG     93  70  95  71 /  30  19  17  12
HATTIESBURG   93  72  94  72 /  20  18  30  19
NATCHEZ       90  71  93  72 /  31  21  18  15
GREENVILLE    93  71  94  72 /  26  18  16  12
GREENWOOD     92  70  94  71 /  26  18  16  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

27/22/17/19



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