Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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053
FXUS64 KJAN 200600
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1200 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
The primary concern overnight into early Monday morning will be
for LIFR category fog/stratus in the HBG area with a smaller
potential for these conditions in the JAN/HKS to MEI area.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail until a frontal system
approaches late Monday into Monday night. MVFR category
ceilings/visibilies will be the main concern with conditions
deteriorating as rain slowly moves in from west to east across the
forecast area. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...Temperatures were running several degrees cooler
than forecast under mostly clear skies and a near calm wind this
evening. The surface high to the northeast will slide a little
farther east tonight. This will result in a light return flow
that will help increase dew points a degree or two but, have
lowered morning lows a couple of degrees areawide. Areas of fog
are expected over the southeast including a few dense spots but wl
hold off on an Advisory for now. /22/

Prior discussion: Tonight and Monday...It`s been a warm day
across the ArkLaMiss region as upper ridging remains firmly in
place over the region. Temperatures this afternoon have warmed
into the upper 70s across the Highway 82 corridor and the lower
80s elsewhere. Several of our climate sites have either tied or
broken record high temperatures for today and expect that the rest
will follow suit before peak heating subsides.

A very mild night is in store as temperatures drop into the upper
50s in the west and lower 50s across the east. Guidance today is not
as bullish with dense fog as it was for last night. Think there
could be patchy fog everywhere with some areas of fog in the south,
but not overly confident in dense fog. Therefore, did not issue an
advisory nor put anything in the HWO/graphics.

The upper ridge will slowly slide east overnight as will the sfc
high. As this occurs, a shortwave trough will dig south into the
western part of Texas through Monday. A front will slowly track
toward our region but will have a hard time entering my CWA until
later Monday into Tuesday as the upper ridge will keep a hold on the
area. By later Monday afternoon, some small rain chances may enter
the western part of my CWA but most of the holiday will remain dry.
Temperatures will again be very warm and perhaps more record highs
will be tied or broken tomorrow afternoon.
/28/

Monday night through next weekend...Precipitation chances will
continue to increase from west to east Monday night as circulation
around a cutoff low, that will enter the Western Gulf Monday
night, pulls gulf moisture into the region. Although models have
come into better agreement over the last few runs, they still
differ quite a bit on the amount of early week QPF with the Euro
remaining the most aggressive and the NAM and GFS suggesting that
the Gulf moisture will have a tough time overcoming the dry
surface airmass as the axis of moisture pushes slowly east
throughout the day on Tuesday. However, all models agree that the
best chances of heavy rainfall in our area will be in the
southwest portions Monday night into early Tuesday before the deep
low moves further south into the Gulf and the parameters needed
to produce heavier rainfall rates decrease. The lack of these
parameters, even on Monday night, has resulted in the decision to
not add any flooding/heavy rain hazards in the HWO.

Shortwave ridging should result in dry conditions returning to
most of the region on Wednesday with the exception of areas in the
SE where some wrap around moisture associated with the low
swinging across the Gulf of Mexico could generate some light
showers. Temperatures should remain well above average through
the work week, approaching 80 degrees once again on Thursday and
Friday.

A cold front, associated with a trough crossing the Plains late
in the week, will begin to approach the region on Friday. A warm,
buoyant prefrontal air mass will exist ahead of the front. This
could result in storms forming as the front progresses through the
region. Cooler, drier air will begin to filter into the region
behind the front. Temperatures on Saturday will be the closest to
seasonal that we`ll see throughout the entire forecast period.
Long term guidance also suggest the return of rain/storm chances
early next week. /jpm3/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       54  82  59  73 /   0   3  44  66
Meridian      52  81  57  72 /   0   0  19  45
Vicksburg     55  82  60  72 /   0   8  61  69
Hattiesburg   53  82  59  73 /   0   0  28  64
Natchez       58  81  61  72 /   0  17  67  66
Greenville    55  79  58  71 /   0   8  54  61
Greenwood     53  80  58  72 /   0   4  40  46

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$



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