Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
FXUS64 KJAN 282113
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
413 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016
For the remainder of the afternoon into tonight, The convective
system that brought very heavy rainfall to northeast Louisiana
earlier today has weakened greatly leaving behind a large mesohigh
that covers most of the ArkLaMiss. Around the periphery of the cold
pool we are seeing convective generation and this should be the
primary focus this period. There are indications in the near term
guidance that some shower activity could redevelop late tonight over
mainly central Mississippi, but confidence in the details on this are
low right now given no obvious signs of greater forcing mechanisms.
Going into Friday and Friday night, a weak mid/upper level shear axis
residing over the forecast area will continue to combine with a very
moist airmass to bring mainly diurnal shower/thunderstorm chances.
Some guidance show the potential for organized convective
development to affect northern portions of the area due to greater
influence from the energetic westerlies. In general, rain chances
are higher along the Highway 82 corridor due to this possibility and
the persistent shear axis. It looks like lapse rates will still be
too meager for strong/severe storm potential, but it would be a
little greater if solutions showing the organized convection pan out.
Long Term (Saturday through Thursday)...Unsettled weather will
continue through the long term. An upper trough/sfc front will remain
north of the area through the first half of the period. This,
combined with plentiful moisture(as characterized by 2-2.2 inch PW
values), will bring chance to likely PoPs through much of the period.
By Monday, the upper trough will lift off to the northeast and upper
ridging will build in a little from the west. The ArkLaMiss will
remain on the eastern side of this ridge, which will allow for
continued higher chances for rain in our soupy airmass.
Temperatures will be roughly around or a few degrees above normal
through the period, with the temperatures getting warmer toward the
end of the week. With dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, heat
indices will be in the 100 to 105 range through much of the period,
resulting in some elevated heat stress issues. /28/
.AVIATION...MVFR conditions will continue through the evening and
overnight as the showery weather is replaced by fog. Conditions
should begin improving after 29/14Z with VFR conditions returning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin developing again in
the heat of the day, but not as numerous as today. /26/
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 73 92 74 93 / 39 48 20 46
Meridian 72 95 74 95 / 25 52 22 47
Vicksburg 73 92 75 93 / 45 44 20 36
Hattiesburg 75 92 74 92 / 24 39 20 43
Natchez 73 91 73 91 / 28 31 20 38
Greenville 73 89 73 92 / 33 51 27 40
Greenwood 72 90 73 91 / 27 51 26 40