Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 051038
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
439 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...WINTER STORM ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AT 4 AM THE FREEZING LINE
AT THE SURFACE HAS SUNK DOWN TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR AND THIS FREEZING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALOFT THE MEAT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STARTING TO SWING INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY PRESENTLY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
SCREAMING HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK HELPING TO FOCUS LIFT IN OUR REGION.
PRECIPITATION HAS A SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE LOOK RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION WITH AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE REPORTING MOSTLY SLEET. A FOCUSED BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP IS SETTING UP BACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDER OCCURRING IN THIS PRECIP BAND (AND EVEN ELSEWHERE) GIVES
CONFIDENCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY WINTRY
CONSIDERING DROPPING TEMPS.

TAKING MESOSCALE EVOLUTIONS INTO ACCOUNT WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE WINTER STORM WARNING A BIT FURTHER INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL MS
AND EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY A BIT FURTHER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MS. WE WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK AT THINGS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND MAKE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IF NECESSARY. ONE THING
TO POINT OUT IS THAT WHILE SLEET HAS BEEN RATHER UBIQUITOUS SO
FAR THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE HEART OF
FORECAST AREA OWING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THAT
SAID...MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN MS SHOULD SEE SOME OF
COMBINATION OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WITH MORE SLEET
NORTH OF I-20 AND MORE FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF I-20.

PRECIPITATION REALLY LOOKS TO BE TAPERING OFF PRETTY QUICKLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND IT IS POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF
THE ADVISORY AND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED EARLY. DESPITE ENDING PRECIP LATER TODAY THE ONLY CHANCE
AT SUN SHOULD BE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID
30S IN MOST AREAS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DECENT RAD COOLING LATE TONIGHT AFTER TODAYS STRONG NORTH WINDS
GRADUALLY DIE DOWN. REMAINING ICE PACK IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL
HELP WITH COOLING AND ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS IN NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AND WELL DOWN IN THE 20S MOST OTHER AREAS. SOME RECORD LOWS
WILL LIKELY FALL. STILL LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA TONIGHT AND THE COMING DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND SOMEWHAT WARMER
TEMPERATURES...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN WAY BELOW NORMAL WITH MODIFYING
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PARKED RIGHT OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE SITUATION TO BRING RATHER PERFECT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS
AFTER SUNDOWN WITH PLUMMETING TEMPS AND LOWS ONCE AGAIN WAY BELOW
NORMAL. /BB/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE WEEKEND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. DAILY HIGHS IN THE WEEKEND WILL
PUSH INTO MAINLY THE 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE
EURO..GFS...AND GEM MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES WITH AREA PRECIP
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST ONE WILL BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A LITTLE
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. AS HIGHS GOES FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S. THIS WILL BRING
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY THE
TIME WE GET TO THURSDAY IT WILL BE SPRING LIKE WITH HIGHS PUSHING
TOWARD THE 70 DEGREE MARK IN THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO
THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CATS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH LOTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEING REPORTED ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING
WILL EXPAND A BIT FURTHER EAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ALTHOUGH PIB/HBG IN SE MS SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
CEILINGS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAY...GUSTING OVER 30 KTS AT TIMES. TONIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WILL FLIGHT CATS MAINLY VFR. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       32  23  45  26 /  88   4   2   4
MERIDIAN      37  22  46  25 /  93   7   2   3
VICKSBURG     31  21  42  24 /  76   2   2   5
HATTIESBURG   50  26  51  28 /  65  11   2   5
NATCHEZ       32  22  43  25 /  80   4   2   6
GREENVILLE    32  14  35  22 /  50   2   2   3
GREENWOOD     32  16  38  21 /  71   2   2   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ039-
     045-046-049>051-054-055-059>062.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MSZ029>033-036>038-042>044-047-048-053.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-
     034-035-040-041.

LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ024-
     026.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ016-
     023-025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LAZ007>009-015.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

BB/17/BB




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