Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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908
FXUS64 KJAN 290152 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
852 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Cleared out all pops for the remainder of the night for this update.
All precip has either moved out of the area or diminished by this
time. Otherwise, the going forecast looks good. Some patchy fog may
be possible after 09Z which will then dissipate shortly after
sunrise. Lows will fall to the upper 60s by Sunday morning. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail for the most part through the period.
Similar conditions to previous mornings will occur again Sunday
morning. Some brief MVFR ceilings/vis will be possible but will lift
through the morning and return to VFR conditions. Dry weather looks
possible but cannot completely rule out an isolated storm. However,
low confidence exists in it affecting a TAF site. Winds will be light
to calm overnight and out of the west/northwest tomorrow around
5-10kts. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Late afternoon through Memorial Day...

Shower/thunderstorm activity has struggled to develop today as
considerable cloud cover limited daytime heating and destabilization.
Expect convective activity to diminish by early evening with some fog
potential still possible early Sunday morning as indicated in the
previous forecast.

Otherwise...the weak trough crossing the forecast area this
afternoon will shift east and be followed by ridging/anticyclonic
flow and slightly drier air going through the remainder of this
Memorial Day weekend. This will result in mainly dry weather with
temperatures a little above climatic normal values for the end of May
as highs reach around 90 and lows struggle to fall below 70. There
may be an uptick in diurnal convective precip chances over western
portions of the ArkLaMiss Memorial Day due to effects from a weak
trough moving across the Ozark region. /EC/

LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday Night...The extended will
start out with the area being dominated by weak upper ridging and
diurnal thunderstorm activity each day through Wednesday. High
temperatures will climb to around 90 degrees with overnight lows
around 70. The GFS/ECMWF are in good agreement that an upper trough
will move across the southern plains and drag a frontal boundary into
the delta by Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area on
Thursday and Friday, along with cooler temps as the upper
trough/frontal boundary slowly move across the area into the weekend.
/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  90  69  91 /   5  10   5  13
Meridian      66  90  68  91 /  11  10   5  11
Vicksburg     67  90  68  91 /   5  10   5  21
Hattiesburg   67  92  70  92 /   7  12   5  16
Natchez       68  89  70  89 /   5  10   5  29
Greenville    68  90  70  89 /   5  10   5  20
Greenwood     67  89  68  90 /   5  10   5  15

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$



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