Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 161951
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS HAD A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON THAT WAS HELPING SUPPORT A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIFT THROUGH OUR CWA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THIS COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND A 1022MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MAY
DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY THIS EVENING ENDING RAIN CHANCES BUT
WL CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR FOR NOW. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS WELL...RIDGING
ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY IN THE WEST WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENS
IN THE EAST RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. THIS
WILL HELP THE COLD FRONT DRIFT SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND THEN STALL NEAR THE GULF COAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED OVER OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z TUE JAN SOUNDING SHOWED A
PW OF 1.95INCHES. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY PWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN
INCH AND A THIRD. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL DROP IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MOST SITES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR RUN 63-66F. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WL CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND MODELS
AGREE THAT A COUPLE OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL SET OFF CONVECTION
UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS THAT MAY MOVE INTO OUR
DELTA REGION EACH EVENING. THE WESTERN PORTION OF STALLED COLD FRONT
WILL DRIFT BACK NORTH A BIT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS OVER OUR SOUTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON AS
WELL. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESIDE EAST OF MISSISSIPPI AND
SPREAD INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES LIMITING RAIN CHANCES THERE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NORMAL HIGHS RUN NEAR 87F. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON.
/22/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE MED
RANGE. THE PATTERN WILL BE ONE OF TRANSITION WITH A NW FLOW TYPE
REGIME IN PLACE A WE WRAP UP THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD
OF S/WV RIDGING...THEN A SHIFT TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. WHAT HAS
CHANGED OVER THE LAST 24 HRS IS NOW THE EURO/GFS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW ON THE PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING IS MUCH
BETTER ON THE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF A DECENT
LATE SEP COOL FRONT.

FOR FRI...THE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL HELP PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO
PART OF THE CWA. OVERALL DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY FRI ALLOWING FOR
LESS PRECIP CHANCES INTO SAT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR SUN INTO MON
AS THE LARGER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE AND PUSHES A STRONGER FRONT OUR
WAY. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN FOR PART OF SUN INTO EARLY
MON AS MOISTURE GETS FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE
AREA INDICATIONS THAT THE MOISTURE COULD BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AS
LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM T.S. ODILE MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGIONAL
CIRCULATION AS OUR FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FROM THU-SUN. SOME
LOCATIONS (E/NE) MAY SEE LOWS NEAR NORMAL FRI MORN BUT THEN WARM
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS LOOK TO SHIFT TO MORE SEASONAL
READINGS AFTER THE FRONT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
READINGS IF THE PATTERN CAN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT HBG AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
PATCHY FOG CAN`T BE RULED OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  91  67  90 /   9   4   4  16
MERIDIAN      64  91  64  89 /  10   3   4   6
VICKSBURG     64  91  65  88 /   9   3   5  18
HATTIESBURG   70  93  69  91 /  26  15   7  14
NATCHEZ       67  91  69  87 /  20  13  14  30
GREENVILLE    64  89  68  88 /   4   2  16  25
GREENWOOD     64  90  65  88 /   4   3  12  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/CME/15







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