Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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813
FXUS64 KJAN 102144
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

NW FLOW AND SFC RIDGING CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY AS A NEAR
1030MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER NW FLOW AS WE ARE SITUATED IN BETWEEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE ERN CONUS AND WRN CONUS RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A S/WV DEVELOPS OVER OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...EXPECT A SFC REFLECTION OF A WEAK SFC DRY FRONT TO DRIFT TO
THE S TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN ADVANCE...SOME LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD
BECOME MORE WRLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE NW SFC
WINDS/ALOFT PICKS UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...CLOSER TO
NORMAL...COMPARED TO THE MUCH COLDER TEMPS THIS MORNING. OVERALL THIS
FRONT WILL ONLY BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME INCREASING LIFT AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

LOW LEVEL COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS SOUTHWARD
MOVING DRY FRONT THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS REBOUND SOME 8-10 DEG
C....WHICH WILL WARM THE AREA UP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE N TO LOW
TO MID 70S IN THE S. AREAS ALONG/S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR COULD BE SOME
8-12 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE WARMER IN THE S IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. DUE TO INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT S OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
NIGHT...ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS TO THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR
AS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD BRING
SOME FOG POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL MODERATE HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT SOME STILL 5-9 DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG/S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN THE N/NE WHERE BEST LIFT RESIDES FROM DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S N TO LOW 40S S AS
THE SFC BOUNDARY DRIFTS S. RELEVANT PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...IN ADDITION TO AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIKEWISE BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY... WHILE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH
COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THEY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY...WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GFS AND ECMWF`S PLACEMENT OF FEATURES REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWA. HOWEVER...BOTH DO AGREE THAT A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS E OVER THE APPALACHIANS...SOME
RESIDUAL COLD COULD STICK AROUND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF THE PRECIP
MOVES IN FAST ENOUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH THERE COULD BE SOME
WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL IN THE FAR N/NE. LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING GOOD RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DUE TO
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW HEIGHTS AND
LOWER CONFIDENCE...LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN
END BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 50S TO MID 60S...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. CLEAR QUIET CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. /19/DC/

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT (BUT OCCASIONALLY GUSTY) THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE FLOW GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL TURN MORE DECIDEDLY SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH. TOMORROW THE
WEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GUSTY. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       38  68  40  64 /   1   1   0   4
MERIDIAN      31  66  37  64 /   1   1   0   3
VICKSBURG     41  68  40  64 /   1   1   1   4
HATTIESBURG   37  74  47  71 /   2   2   2   2
NATCHEZ       43  72  45  68 /   1   1   1   4
GREENVILLE    37  58  35  55 /   1   1   0   2
GREENWOOD     34  60  34  57 /   1   1   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/19/BB



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