Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 222139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
339 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Sunday:
The upper cold core low will be centered over east Mississippi this
evening with light rainshowers on the back side moving southeast
across the area. The showers will slowly end from west to east
through the evening hours and will end for the most part by midnight,
but some very light precipitation could persist into the overnight
hours in the south. The main issue this evening will be very gusty
winds behind the front, with gusts around 40 mph likely in the delta
from early evening into the overnight hours. A wind advisory has
already been issued for these areas. This will make for a cool night
as temperatures fall into the 40s.

Monday wills start out cloudy, but the clouds will clear from west
to east through the late morning into the afternoon hours as upper
ridging begins to build in over the area. Highs will range from the
mid 50s in the north to the low 60s in the south. /15/

Monday night through Saturday: Much quieter weather is expected
through the week and slightly cooler than normal temperatures are in
store by the end of the week. The north-south oriented ridge axis
surface and aloft over our CWA Monday will shift east Monday night
as a large upper level trough deepens over the western CONUS.
Another closed low will lift out from the western CONUS trough into
the Plains by Tuesday morning and become centered over the Great
Lakes region by Wednesday morning. Moisture return will begin over
western sections of the our forecast area Tuesday ahead of the
associated cold front. Our airmass will start of with a PWAT less
than a half inch Tuesday morning and only increase just above three
quarters of an inch before the cold front moves into our western
zones Wednesday morning. Models agree that that light showers
develop along front and spread into our southwest zones prior to
sunrise Wednesday morning. The showers will continue through the day
Wednesday moving out during the evening. Cooler and drier air will
filter into the area in the wake of the cold front. Most sites
across the northern half of our area will bottom out in the 30s
Thursday morning. Thursday our region will be under zonal flow aloft
while a surface high becomes centered over our CWA. Afternoon
temperatures will be several degrees cooler than normal in the low
to mid 50s. Our zonal flow aloft will continue Friday then become
northwesterly Saturday as mid level troughing develops over the
center of the country. Surface ridging will continue to nose in from
the west maintaining dry weather and slightly cooler than normal
temperatures into the weekend. /22/


18Z TAF discussion: All TAF sites are VFR this afternoon and this
should continue across most sites through around 01-02Z. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms may bring occasional MVFR to sites through
this period. MVRF possibly IFR conditions will return after 01-02z as
a cold front sweeps south across the area, along with gusty northwest
winds. Winds will be especially strong at KGLH, where gusts of up to
35 kts are possible mainly between 00Z and 09Z./15/


Jackson       45  57  37  70 /  61   0   0   1
Meridian      46  58  35  67 /  53   7   0   1
Vicksburg     44  58  36  70 /  41   0   0   1
Hattiesburg   48  61  39  69 /  33   3   0   1
Natchez       44  61  40  72 /  26   0   0   1
Greenville    42  54  37  65 /  75   1   0   1
Greenwood     43  54  35  67 /  84   4   0   1


MS...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for MSZ018-019-025-034-035-

LA...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for LAZ007>009.

AR...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for ARZ074-075.



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