Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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630
FXUS64 KJAN 302059
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
359 PM CDT SAT APRIL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS...SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TO MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WAS SENDING SHORTWAVES INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING
UP THE CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE CWA FROM THE WEST. WE WERE
STILL TRACKING OUR WAKE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NEAR THE BACK
END OF THE RAINS BRINGING SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO THE CWA. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE RAINS HAD TAPERED OFF WEST OF I-55
FOR NOW. ON THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING FROM EAST TEXAS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE MO.

FOR THIS EVENING EXPECT A DECREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE COMING IN FROM
THE WEST...BUT EXPECT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO COME ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF CONVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER THE CWA...EVEN
THOUGH WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF GOING THROUGH TONIGHT.  AS FAR AS THE SEVERE RISK IS CONCERN
CURRENT CONDITIONS HAS DOWNPLAYED OUR SEVERE RISK SOME INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL STAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. SO WILL
KEEP OUR RISK OF LIMITED SEVERE EAST OF I-55 WITH THE PRIMARY
RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL. WILL KEEP THE
PRIMARY RISKS OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GOING
UNTIL 00Z. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION CROSSING THE CWA AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION. WPC WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF FORCING TO GO WITH OUR INSTABILITY FOR THE PERIOD. SO CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SEVERE RISK FOR SUNDAY AS SPC HAS
A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REGION. WE MAY GET SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGHS
WILL IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT AS WE GET SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT. WPC WILL CONTINUE ITS SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AS PWATS WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES ONE
AGAIN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWN POURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
70S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST./17/

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...THE PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WILL DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG
TERM. ON TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION AS WE HAVE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION BY
TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...THIS WILL LEAVE OUR REGION UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WE
SHOULD SEE READINGS BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. BRIEF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SHOULD BE SOME NICE WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.17/28

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REDEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A MILE ORLESS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA ALSO...MVFR TOLIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

IN ADDITION...ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES OF JAN AND HKS. MEI AND HBG LIKELY DEVELOP FOR BETWEEN NOW AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...GUSTS TO 40KTS OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  82  67  77 /  65  55  47  70
MERIDIAN      67  81  65  78 /  56  63  35  63
VICKSBURG     69  83  68  76 /  59  46  53  71
HATTIESBURG   68  82  67  81 /  61  65  30  61
NATCHEZ       68  81  68  76 /  66  64  50  69
GREENVILLE    66  82  65  73 /  42  25  48  67
GREENWOOD     67  82  65  73 /  54  35  46  68

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.

LA...NONE.

AR...NONE

&&

$$

17/DL/28



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