Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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770
FXUS62 KJAX 191937
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
337 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.NEAR TERM /Through Friday/...
Few bands of showers continuing to progress onshore over our
southern counties...and will continue to do so through the
evening. Model guidance suggests lesser coverage during the
evening.

High pressure will remain north of the forecast area...maintaining
a northeasterly flow pattern. This will support partly cloudy to
occasionally mostly cloudy skies...maintaining low POPs for
coastal showers moving into our southern counties during the day
Fri. Made some minor adjustments to temps based on latest
consensus guidance.


.SHORT TERM /Friday Night Through Saturday Night/...

Mid/upper level ridge centered over the southeast Friday night
will shift eastward to the western Atlantic Saturday and Saturday
night. A weak mid level trough oriented east northeast to the
west southwest from over the western Atlantic to south Florida
will continue to shift southeast Friday night. At the
surface, ridge of pressure across the Mid Atlantic states will
push slowly east and northeast to off the coast of New England by
Saturday night. A gradual increase in moisture is expected
Saturday afternoon and evening with deep easterly flow
developing. However, a strong subsidence inversion around
4500-6000 ft will remain. A few coastal showers are possible
during the day along the northeast Florida coastline, and then
along the SE GA and NE FL coastline Saturday night with the
increase in moisture.

A slight warming trend is expected Friday night through Saturday
night. Highs will rise to near 80 to the low 80s at the coast and
the low to mid 80s inland. Lows will be near 60 northeast of
Waycross Saturday morning, the low to mid 60s across across the
rest of the interior and the upper 60s to lower 70s towards the
coast. For Sunday morning, temperatures will be a few degrees
warmer areawide.

.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...
Southeasterly flow will return on Sunday due to high pressure
shifting east in response to a vigorous digging upper trough/low
across the Southern Plains and towards the northern Gulf coast. A
surface low is forecast to progress northeastward from the
northern Gulf coast near AL/MS border to northern Georgia or
Tennessee Monday afternoon or Monday night. A cold front and
possibly a squall line in advance of this system will progress
eastward from MS Valley towards the region Monday Night into
Tuesday. A larger trough will then swing through the region on
Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing much cooler and drier
conditions to the region, with 40s across much of the interior
Wednesday night.

A more unstable air-mass and warm advection will result in a good
chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Sunday
night...with increasing chances for showers and storms Monday
through Tuesday. Storms may become strong to severe Monday
afternoon into Tuesday as bulk shear increases and cold front
pushes through the region. Surface high pressure will build into
the the southern U.S. which may result in breezy northwest flow on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Have had areas of MVFR CIGs today with moist northeasterly flow.
Latest guidance suggests some clearing of lower clouds this
evening except over coastal counties of ne FL. Gusty northeast
winds are expected to subside during the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure north of the waters will maintain northeasterly flow
through Friday...with flow becoming more easterly over the weekend...and
southeasterly late Sun into early next week. Currently have SCA out for
nearshore waters thru Tonight and offshore waters midday Fri. Winds and seas
expected to stay just below advisory criteria later Fri through the weekend.
Will need to monitor later guidance to see if advisories need to
be extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  82  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  66  79  71  81 /  20   0  10  10
JAX  64  82  69  83 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  71  81  71  82 /  30  20  10  20
GNV  64  84  65  85 /  20  20   0  10
OCF  66  86  66  87 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Friday for Clay-Coastal
     Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Wolf/Kennedy/Peterson



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