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000
FXUS62 KJAX 230800
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
400 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WESTERN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE STACKED UPPER LOW RETROGRADES WEST ACROSS
LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER OUR OUTER
COASTAL WATERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD AND THUS PULLING AWAY FROM THE
COAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE BEACHES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE LOW
(10% OR LESS). PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) REMAINS AROUND 2 INCHES
PER THE BLENDED SATELLITE PWAT IMAGE...BUT AS THE STACKED LOW
MOVES FARTHER AWAY...DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER
TODAY. PWAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES BY EVENING.
WILL GO WITH ISOLATED (20%) TO LOW CHANCE (30-40%) RAIN CHANCES
AS THE SEA BREEZES SPIN UP. WITH A PREVAILING SWLY TO WESTERLY
FLOW...THE GULF COAST SBRZ WILL SWIFTLY CROSS THE PENINSULA AND
MERGE WITH THE ATLC SBRZ NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASIN BY LATE AFTN...WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
ERUPT. GIVEN THE MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. CONVECTION WILL FADE AFTER
SUNSET AND TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
TODAY AS SW FLOW PICKS UP.

THURSDAY...WESTERN ATLC RIDGE BEGINS IT`S RETREAT TO THE SOUTH AS A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS RESULTS IN W
TO SW FLOW STRENGTHENING AND THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE BEING THE MAIN
PLAYER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTS IN A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS...BUT TEMPS ALOFT FAIRLY WARM SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 90S AT MOST LOCALES
(EVEN THE BEACHES) WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...

THU NIGHT-MON...THE RIDGE WILL FURTHER RETREAT TO ACROSS SOUTH CNTL FL
AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL
KEEP THE PREVAILING SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN A PATTERN
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE AND BEING
ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH END SCATTERED POPS EACH DAY WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGHEST HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

TUE...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE W TO SW FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
END SCATTERED POPS WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
GROUND FOG HAS REDUCED VSBY AT VQQ WITH PREVAILING MVFR EXPECTED
UNTIL SUNRISE...AND ALSO HAVE TEMPO FOR IFR UNTIL 11Z. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE AT GNV SINCE THE TERMINAL RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL
LAST EVENING. LOW CHANCE FOR TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
NOT INCLUDE VCTS FOR ENTIRE AFTN. INSTEAD...HAVE PROB30 FOR 2 TO 3
HOURS BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR GNV AND 19Z AT REMAINING TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH A
LIGHT SW FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING SE THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO A
SEA BREEZE. THE HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT SEWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW. CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...A
PREVAILING SOUTH TO SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. NOCTURNAL
SURGES WILL BOOST WINDS TO AROUND 15 KTS OR GREATER OVER THE
OFFSHORE LEGS AND A SCEC HEADLINE MAY BE REQUIRED ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY BE STRONGER.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO INCOMING SWELLS AND LOW
TIDE AROUND NOON. LOW TO MODERATE RISK ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  72  94  72 /  20  20  30  30
SSI  90  77  92  76 /  20  20  30  30
JAX  94  73  94  73 /  30  20  30  30
SGJ  90  76  92  75 /  30  30  30  30
GNV  94  72  93  72 /  30  20  30  20
OCF  94  73  93  73 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

TRABERT/PETERSON