Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KJAX 010815 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
415 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT)...

FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE GA BUT NONE ACROSS NE FL DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH AREAS
OF FOG ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. THE FOG SHOULD
LIFT BY MID MORNING.

AFTER THE MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...EXPECTING SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SE GA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE STILL
ANTICIPATE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
HAVE NEAR NIL POPS ACROSS MOST OF SE GA AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING WITH MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND
AND LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO GET GOING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
FADE IN THE EVENING BUT EXPECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...EXPECTING PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AT MOST LOCALES.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THU...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AT T HE MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN LESSER
PRECIP COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AND PERHAPS A WEAK
IMPULSE RIDING OVER THE FLAT RIDGE...STILL EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED AFTN TSTM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL CLOSEST
TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
I-10 CORRIDOR...WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. WILL KEEP
MOST OF SE GA PRECIP FREE CLOSEST TO THE RIDGE AXIS. WARM
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THU AFTN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S INLAND...WITH LOWER 80S COAST. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY WIND
DOWN IN THE EVENING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER TO
MID 70S COAST.

FRI...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKES ITS APPROACH FROM
THE NW FRIDAY AFTN...WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
NUDGING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL
RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING...ESPECIALLY FRI AFTN. WITH
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
TO THE NW...WILL USE LIKELY POPS FRI AFTN/EVENING FOR INLAND SE
GA...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL SE GA AND NE FL. THE COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER SE GA FRIDAY EVENING...CROSSING NE FL FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH UPPER FORCING BEING STRETCHED AS THE FRONT CROSSES...WILL
KEEP POPS CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WILL DECREASE ACROSS SE GA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS INTO NE FL. WARM AIR WILL SURGE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED PRECIP...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND
LOWER 70S COAST.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT INTO CENTRAL FL SATURDAY. RESIDUAL PRECIP
SOUTH OF JAX WILL END IN THE AFTN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL. THE
COOLEST AND DRIEST AIR OF THE FALL THUS FAR WILL ENTER THE REGION.
SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE SATURDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT LOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT
TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S FAR INLAND...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE. EXPECT MID 50S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH 60 TO 65
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL ALSO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A MODERATING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING PATCHY FOG TO FORM EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP NEGATE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL. HAVE OCNL MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AT GNV AND VQQ BETWEEN 09Z-14Z. OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR
EXPECTED. WILL ALSO PROBABLY HAVE VCSH AT GNV BEGINNING AT 18Z IN
NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. WILL
HAVE A GENTLE ONSHORE FLOW MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AND BECOME NORTH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION
ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: WILL HAVE A MODERATE RISK FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND EASTERLY GROUNDSWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  64  88  68 /  10  10  10  40
SSI  81  71  82  72 /  10  10  10  20
JAX  85  68  85  69 /  20  10  20  20
SGJ  83  73  84  71 /  30  20  20  20
GNV  86  68  88  68 /  40  20  40  30
OCF  86  69  89  69 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.