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000
FXUS62 KJAX 161313
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
913 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.UPDATE...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER FCST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF FORECAST AREA.  WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER
TODAY AS LINE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER GULF COAST STATES SHIFTS
EASTWARD. GIVEN THAT THE BAND OF CONVECTION IS ALIGNED ALMOST
PARALLEL TO FLOW ALOFT...DON`T ANTICIPATE FAST EASTWARD
MOTION...SO TRENDING TODAY`S FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH SLOWER NAM
AND HI-RES WRF-ARW SOLUTION, WITH ACTIVITY APPROACHING OUR
WESTERNMOST COUNTIES 18-21Z THEN SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF OUR FORECAST AREA 21-00Z...MAINLY W OF JAX-GNV LINE.

ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS FL PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO OUR WRN COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING A WEAKENING TREND TO CONVECTION OVER OUR
AREA AS IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM DYNAMIC SUPPORT (WITH UPPER
TROUGH STILL BACK OVER TX). INCREASED THUNDER PROBS TO CHANCE FOR
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

12Z SOUNDINGS QUITE A BIT WARMER AT LOW-LEVELS THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. SURFACE OBS ARE 10-15 DEG WARMER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. PLUS AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF OUR
AREA...SO CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 80S INLAND NE FL (UPR 70S
COAST) LOOKS GOOD...A BIT COOLER INTERIOR SE GA WITH MORE
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.

SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING 30-35KT WINDS AT LOW-LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WHERE WE HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND DEEPER MIXED
LAYER. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS NE
FL....WITH WINDS JUST BELOW CRITERIA IN SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH LOWER CIGS
LATER IN THE EVENING AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...MAINTAINING SCA FOR OFFSHORE COMPONENT STARTING AT 18Z FOR
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION NEARSHORE
COMPONENT FOR 15-20KT WINDS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  61  65  52 /  80  90  90  80
SSI  77  63  63  53 /  40  90  90  90
JAX  81  64  69  58 /  20  90  90  90
SGJ  78  68  68  59 /  10  80  90  90
GNV  81  64  71  57 /  20  90  90  90
OCF  83  66  75  59 /  10  80  90  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT MONDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

WOLF/ALLEN