Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 021904
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
304 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT-TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. RESPECTIVE EAST COAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MERGERS
ARE ANTICIPATED THIS LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING NEAR THE
SR301 CORRIDOR. THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD
TOWARD THE COAST THIS EARLY EVENING THEN MIGRATE OFFSHORE. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE...WANING
FURTHER IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS MID TO
LATE EVENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DUE TO S-SW FLOW AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.TUESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND TRACK
EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AS MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS AIRMASS
BEGINS TO PRIME WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BETWEEN
1.60 AND 1.80 INCHES. DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL SPEED SHEAR
INCREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SUFFICIENT CAPES FOR A FEW
STORMS BECOME STRONG TO PERHAPS ONE TO TWO BECOMING SEVERE. SPC
CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR AREA IN MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH
A FEW STORMS POTENTIALLY HAVING GUSTY WINDS OF 40-60 MPH. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR PRE-FRONTAL
AND FRONTAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THIS
PERIOD...BUT THEY ARE ALSO SHOWING A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF ENERGY
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SPLITTING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE NORTH FLORIDA
REGION. NUMEROUS STRONG/SEVERE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS ONGOING
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SE GA WILL FADE AFTER SUNSET AND THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS CLOSE TO THE FL/GA
BORDER TOWARDS MORNING AND ENERGY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED
NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. MODELS THEN SHOWING NEXT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GOMEX EARLY WED AND REIGNITING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE
OVER THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WITH
THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT HEATING EXPECT MOST OF THE STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TO END UP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HEADS IN THAT DIRECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. SO CONFIDENCE
IN ENTIRE SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE AT THIS TIME AND STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO ONE INCH ACROSS SE GA
AND CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH ACROSS NE FL DUE TO POSSIBLE SPLIT
SCENARIO. MILD/HUMID OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT AND WHILE COOLER MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH INCREASED WEST WINDS TO 15-25
MPH STILL BELIEVE THEY COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S WITH
SUCH A MILD START AND SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...AS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS SE GA AND AROUND 80 DEGREES
ACROSS NE FL. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

PATTERN CHANGE BACK TO DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF PASSES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE WEEKEND AND LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
LOWS IN THE 40S/50S AND HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY WITH SOME
NEAR RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IF THE COOLER ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE VERIFIES. OVER THE WEEKEND
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND
BACK UP TO CLIMO VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 80S SUNDAY AND BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOME
TERMINALS THIS EARLY EVENING AS SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY
MOVE OVER A TERMINAL SITE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
OTHERWISE. INLAND TERMINALS MAY HAVE PATCHY FOG BRIEFLY REDUCING
VSBYS INTO THE 3-5 NM RANGE FROM 09Z-13Z. NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS
SCENARIO IF THERE ARE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SSW WINDS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ENCROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY THEN PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY. BREEZY
NW FLOW EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED WELL W AND NW OF THE AREA. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEK. MAIN
SHORT TERM HAZARD FOR MARINERS WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTN HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  84  64  80 /  40  70  50  10
SSI  72  83  68  81 /  40  60  50  20
JAX  70  87  68  83 /  30  50  50  50
SGJ  71  86  70  83 /  30  40  40  60
GNV  69  86  68  83 /  20  40  50  60
OCF  69  85  69  83 /  20  40  50  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/HESS



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