194
FXUS62 KJAX 152331
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
731 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 708 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Surface low was inland across NE FL tracking westward early this
evening with the deeper convection on the west and southwest side
of the circulation exiting Marion county. The flood watch for
western Putnam and Marion county will be cancelled shortly.

Spotty showers will continue overnight mainly for our inland
western zones near and north of the circulation near an inverted
trough axis as it retrogrades. Rain chances will be much more
limited east of Highway 301 where upper level backing winds
(subsidence) and drier air limits rainfall with only a low chance
of mainly coastal showers through daybreak under breezy southerly
winds over the coastal waters.

Elevated southerly winds overnight will limit fog potential with
mild overnight lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 708 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

MVFR cloud bases will shift farther inland (westward) this evening
with the surface low tracking inland across north Florida. Added
TEMPO IFR at GNV where heavier rain and lower ceilings are most
likely through 02z. ESE to SE winds 10-14 kts with gusts 20-25 kts
at coastal terminals this evening will remain breezy overnight in
the 09-13 kt range with more clouds breaks and prevailing VFR
between 03-09z for most terminals. After daybreak Wed, breezy SE
winds develop with gusts near 20 kts by midday at coastal
terminals. Included PROB30s for JAX, CRG, VQQ and SGJ after 18z
with VCTS at GNV after 20z where rain chances were > 60%.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 708 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A broad area of low pressure will continue to track westward
across north Florida tonight with elevated east to southeast winds
over the local waters and combined seas of 3-5 ft occasionally
near 6 ft brining Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions to local
waters. Atlantic high pressure will extend across the southeast
states through Thursday. The high will shift south and extend
across south Florida late Friday into the weekend as a surface
front lingers across Georgia.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for all local beaches
through at least Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  92  74  95 /  10  50  10  50
SSI  79  88  79  89 /  10  30  10  30
JAX  75  93  76  94 /  20  50  10  60
SGJ  75  91  76  91 /  20  60  10  70
GNV  73  92  74  94 /  50  80  20  80
OCF  73  91  74  92 /  40  80  20  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ140-237-240-340.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$