Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 250707
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
305 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE...WITH JUST A FEW
CLOUDS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. READINGS WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE BACK ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUN-MON/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE CAROLINA COAST AND BEGIN A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...BUT
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR PCPN AND EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES ON SUNDAY WILL
PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON MONDAY. LOWS AROUND 50 INLAND
TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUE-SAT/...

TUE/WED...HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE WRN ATLC WITH RIDGE AXIS
LEFT BACK ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AND MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO HEDGE EVEN
DRIER DURING THE PERIOD WITH ONSHORE FLOW TOO WEAK TO TRIGGER MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ANY COASTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO
SILENT 10% OR LESS WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. MAX TEMPS STILL IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S INLAND AND
60S ALONG THE COAST.

THU/EARLY FRI...ALL THREE LONG-RANGE MODELS /GFS,ECMWF,CMC/ PUSH A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NE FL/SE GA IN THIS TIME FRAME. THERE
IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT
15-20% BUT STILL NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PCPN EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LATE FRI/SAT...MODELS DIVERGE IN THIS TIME FRAME AND FOR NOW HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER AND DRIER CONDS WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING AND LOWS NEAR 50 DEGREES AND HIGHS ONLY
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF REDUCTIONS IN FOG AT KVQQ THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS 06Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS AREA WATERS FROM THE WEST THIS
WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER AFTERNOON EXPECTED WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS INLAND AREAS...JUST ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES AND
NO HEADLINES ARE REQUIRED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  78  51  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  74  57  76  61 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  77  52  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  76  56  78  60 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  78  48  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  78  50  80  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/HESS





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