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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240131
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
935 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER ON THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
THE COAST OF VIRGINIA WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN
OVERNIGHT. IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ANTICYCLONE WILL
BE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY
SOUNDING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT OVERNIGHT. DESPITE
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
CONVECTION...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS. SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA BAY...THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND HAWK CHANNEL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED
EAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL KEYS
COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOPED NEAR KEYW EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DIMINISHED. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
CU AT 2500 FT. EAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS EXPECTED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A BIT DRIER ON SUNDAY SO ONLY ISOLATED SHRA
EXPECTED...NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO MENTION IN TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2008...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 82 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY
WEST ON MAY 23RD. IN ADDITION...THIS LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES
IS TIED AS THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST
DURING THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/CLIMATE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................MM
DATA ACQUISITION.....................CHESSER

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