Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 271249

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
849 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

A trough is digging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and western
Cuba this morning. Some weak cyclonic flow remains in the base of the
trough and the result can be seen on the Miami radar with an area of
showers and thunderstorms mainly to the north of the Island CHain.
The Key West radar should be back in service this afternoon. Winds
are out of the east to southeast with the marine stations at 5 to 10
knots, and the island terminals at 5 knots or less.

The cyclonic circulation around the decaying upper low will be
absorbed by the trough late today and overnight. A larger
latitudinal trough will dig across the eastern United States on
Wednesday and assimilate the weaker trough over South Florida. With
the trough nearby and the weak cyclonic flow will keep the 50 percent
chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms today.

On Wednesday, the Atlantic ridge will build back over the Keys and
South Florida. Rain chance will lessen to a mid to low chance
through the weekend. Forecast confidence for early next week is
uncertain due to possible solutions involving a complex mid-latitude
and tropical forecast. Will keep a conservative forecast for Monday
and Tuesday, and an eye to the guidance for better consensus.


A weak pressure pattern will continue over the Florida Keys through
the weekend. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected with light to occasionally gentle winds. No advisory or
cautionary statements are expected.


VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH today and tonight. IFR
conditions are conceivable at EYW and MTH this afternoon. This
possibility is not great enough to include in the terminal forecasts
at this time. Sustained southeast to south winds of 5 to 10 knots
from just off the surface to about 3,000 feet will become variable
this afternoon.


On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1892, the low
temperature in Key West was 69 degrees. This set the daily record
for minimum temperature measured in Key West on September 27th, a
record which still stands 124 years later. Temperature records at
Key West date back to 1872.


.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Data Collection......Chesser

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