Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 180253
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1053 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING
THE ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING NEAR 80...AND DEW POINTS ARE
CURIOUSLY CREEPING DOWNWARDS TO NEAR 70 AT ISLAND OBSERVING STATIONS.
EVENING SOUNDING PORTRAYED NEAR 20 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
DEPTH OF AT LEAST 850 MB...WHICH ALONG WITH AREA OBSERVATIONS
REQUIRED AND EARLY UPDATE TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE IN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT. TURBULENT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP AN AMPLE TRIGGER FOR
BOUNDARY-LAYER INDUCED POP-UP SHOWERS UNTIL MORE ORGANIZED ISENTROPIC
LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE ZFP OR PUBLIC GRIDDED
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. ONLY NECESSARY UPDATE EARLIER ON IN THE
SHIFT WAS NECESSARY TO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL ISLAND LOCATIONS
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 4 AM ACROSS ALL
WATERS. EXPECT THAT A GRADUAL SHIFT TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
SHOULD CAUSE THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY LONGER
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL WATERS BY THE MID MORNING TIME PERIOD AND WINDS SHOULD
ABRUPTLY EVOLVE TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS MAY STILL BE SEEN INSIDE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. FRESH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO MAY BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF MVFR VIS AND CEILINGS AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ042>044-052>055-
     072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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