Area Forecast Discussion
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764
FXUS62 KKEY 031859
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
259 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ON THE KEY WEST AND MIAMI RADARS
MAINLY OVER THE UPPER KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...HEADING NORTH-
NORTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACORSS THE KEYS AREA
WITH SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT SAND KEY AND MOLASSES REEF...5 TO
10 KNOTS AT SMITH SHOAL AND LONG KEY...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
PULASKI SHOAL. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS BEING
PUSHED SLOWLY EASTWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AS THE AFORE MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT...RESULTING IN A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
STRAITS AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
KEYS AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ON THE KEYS AREA ARRIVING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LARGE SCALE LIFTING IS EXPECTED IN A ROBUST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY
WILL CALL FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE KEYS AREA...DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE OVER THE KEYS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. LIKELY SHOWERS WILL DROP TO ISOLATED
QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE DRY AIR INFILTRATES THE KEYS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH DUE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED AND MAINLY A WIND
FORECAST DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE
KEYS. THE DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WHILE THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT PEAKS AND LULLS IN THE WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS DUE TO THE IMPACT OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT
OVER THE PENINSULA. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND CLOCK AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AHEAD
OF A TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE KEYS AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL FRESHEN AND
CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
PEAK AND LULL THROUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE DUE TO THE THERMAL GRADIENT
ACTIVATED MAINLY BY THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SLIDE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. AN ADVISORY
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF
CAUTION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/4TH...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SUB VFR ENCOUNTER OR TWO WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME VARIABLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...MOSTLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SHOULD RESUME LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
N 1999...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 65 WAS RECORDED IN KEY
WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  78  85  73  82 / 20 60 60 10
MARATHON  78  87  73  82 / 20 60 60 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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