Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 021850
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
250 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND
90 DEGREES ALONG MOST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS
ARE DETECTING A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
NORTHERN TIP OF THE WESTERNMOST LOWER KEYS...BETWEEN SUMMERLAND
KEY AND KEY WEST. SURFACE WISE...A BROAD RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NEAR OUR ENTIRE MARINE
DISTRICT...RESULTING IN GENERALLY VARIABLE WINDS OF LESS THAN
10 KNOTS...EXCEPT MOSTLY EAST NEAR 10 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
FLORIDA STRAITS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE SUNSHINE STATE AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL SLOWLY SPLINTER BEGINNING
FRIDAY...AS A LENGTHY TROUGH DIGS EQUATORWARD DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. BECAUSE OF THESE
CHANGES ALOFT...LARGE SCALE DESCENT WILL SHIFT TO UPWARD
LIFT BUT TO WHAT EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. BUT UNTIL
THEN...MESOSCALE FORCING PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF CLOUD LINE
GENESIS WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SOURCE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THAT SAID...WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE 30 TO 40 PERCENT 12 HOUR POPS WHICH IS A BLEND OF
THE ECE/MEX MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UNUSUALLY DEEP LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING OUR REGION
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO DEEP ANTICYCLONIC...AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD BY TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITHIN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...WILL RETAIN 40
PERCENT POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS THEREAFTER.
PLENTY OF STRONG INSOLATION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 80.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS...LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREDOMINATE ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT FOR THE
BALANCE OF THIS WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON THE
WATERS ADJACENT TO THE UPPER KEYS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SUB VFR ENCOUNTER WILL BE FOR THE BALANCE
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  90  82  91 / 20 30 30 30
MARATHON  82  92  82  93 / 20 30 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......SC/BF

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