Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 311455

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1055 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...An upper level trough has been parked just east of the
Florida peninsula for several days now. The most recent upper air
observations from MFL and KEY indicate it has transitioned into a
TUTT-like feature, with most of its core above 200 mb. A broad area
of convection has flourished east of the Bahamas, likely helped by
the TUTT. The surface pattern is weak, composed of a ridge axis which
reaches west across the Central Florida peninsula. Based on the
sampled thermodynamic profile (12Z KKEY) and the last few hours of
radar loops, mix-layer parcels are moderately unstable with little to
no inhibition. The most recent radar scans indicate a transition from
the nocturnal pattern towards a pattern focused on the island chain.
Temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the lower

.FORECAST...The current forecast advertises a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the island chain through the afternoon. Based on
the convective performance the last few days, we have little reason
to argue with the inheritance. Similar to yesterday, there may be
more than one round of precipitation in the Lower Keys as the cloud
line cycles. No changes planned nor needed for the forecast.


.MARINE...A weak pressure pattern will persist this afternoon and
tonight. A ridge of high pressure will build across the Florida
peninsula Tuesday through Saturday night.


.AVIATION...Weak primarily easterly surface winds, with very little
steering flow, will provide a favorable environment for island cloud
line development. This will result in a good chance for a round or
two of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to form near the island
terminals, especially at EYW. Showers and thunderstorms will produce
a spell of MVFR/IFR conditions, accompanied by gusty winds.





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