Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 011945
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONSET OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE EARLIER TODAY HAS RESULTED
IN AN INCREASE IN BOTH AIR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN FLORIDA KEYS
ISLAND COMMUNITIES. CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A
THE GOVERNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL HAS SHIFTED OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN THE CHANGE IN
WIND DIRECTION AT LOW ALTITUDES.

BASIC FORECAST REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW CYCLES. TWO
COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK...WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH ONLY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL FOLLOW A DECENT MID-WEEK WARM-UP...ARRIVING MOST
LIKELY ON FRIDAY...AND PRECEDED BY A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT DURING
THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF FRESH BREEZES AND INTERVALS OF LIGHTER
WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
HAWK CHANNEL...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND
SOUTH EARLY MONDAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM SOUTH TO WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THEREAFTER...AN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
GOVERN...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT...AS THEY CONTINUE TO BLOW BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE AT
AROUND 040-050.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  69  78  65  72 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  69  78  63  72 / 10 10 10 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ033-GMZ034-GMZ042-
     GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-
     GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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