Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 081936
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
235 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING IN THE MID
60S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES...BUT CONSIDERABLE FALSE ECHOES IN THE FORM
OF CHAFF IS EVIDENT. SURFACE WISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LIES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND OUR AREA...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN
10 KNOTS ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A MOISTURE STARVED TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH OUR ENTIRE COUNTY
WARNING AREA TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO MIGRATING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED DIME POPS TONIGHT...POPS
WILL BE LEFT OUT FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.
WITH NORMAL HIGHS NEAR 75 AND LOWS NEAR 65 DEGREES...TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SUNSHINE STATE WILL GIVE
WAY TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
LATE SATURDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT...ANOTHER STRONG REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. GIVEN LITTLE MOISTURE...WILL LEAVE
ONLY NICKLE POPS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING NEAR 70 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 60.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TONIGHT...WITH STRONG WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL ABATE UNTIL ANOTHER WIND INCREASE ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...TRENDING WESTERLY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. AS THE TROUGH PRESSES
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. BROKEN
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BASES WILL REMAIN
AOA 040...AND WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING LIMITED...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST WEATHER HISTORY...BACK IN THE
YEAR IN 1895...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 49F WAS RECORDED.
THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW 49F IN KEY WEST DATES ALL
THE WAY BACK TO FEBRUARY 20TH 2015...SOME 352 DAYS AGO. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  61 69 57 67 / 10 00 00 00
MARATHON  60 71 55 68 / 10 00 00 00

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BF
DATA ACQUISITION......EV/SC

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