Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 300223
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
923 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. INTERESTING FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MS/AL COAST.
LOCALLY SFC OBS SHOW LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND DEWPOINTS ARE CREEPING
UP TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
TO SCT CU AT 4 TO 8 KFT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HRS, HOWEVER DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNSET WITH
REDEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING SUN. LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH APPEARS ON
SATELLITE TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT AS PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. AN ELONGATED UPSTREAM TROF AXIS WAS NOTED STRETCHING
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. AN INVERTED
TROF AXIS WAS ANALYZED AT H85 AND H7 EXTENDING FROM SW MS TO NEAR
THE COASTAL TX/MX BORDER.

THIS INVERTED TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WWD...REACHING THE
TX COAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON....AND THEREBY INCREASING THE DEPTH
OF THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS WONT HELP MSTR DEPTH
RIGHT AWAY...AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS COVERS THE NW GULF PER
LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY.
THUS...DESPITE THE UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TX TOMORROW...HAVE
RESTRICTED MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES TO THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
MSTR RECOVERY WILL LEAD INLAND AREAS.

THIS UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC...WITH DIFFERING EVOLUTIONS DEPICTED BETWEEN THE
GLOBAL MODELS...AND FROM RUN TO RUN. THEY ARE IN GENERALLY DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...SHOWING THE TROF AXIS SLIDING
INTO CENTRAL TX TOMORROW...THEN PIVOTING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. A
CONTINUED SLOW EASTWARD MOTION CONTINUES TUE AND WED...WITH THE
SOLUTIONS DIVERGING MORE SHARPLY ON THU. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF A
LOW AND HOLDS IT STATIONARY OVER SC/SE LA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.

GOOD CONSENSUS IS PRESENT FOR GENERALLY LOW END POPS ON
MONDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER E TX/SW LA ON TUE COINCIDENT
WITH POSITION OF UPPER TROF AXIS AND BEST MSTR POOL. RAIN
CHANCES...KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY...BECOME
MORE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED WED AS THE TROF/LOW TRAVERSES THE
AREA...THEN TAPERED FROM NW TO SE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AS
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  71  90  73  90 /  10  10  10  30
LFT  71  91  73  92 /  10  10  10  30
BPT  72  90  74  90 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15



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