Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 301745
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1245 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...Scattered to broken cu can be expected across the
forecast area once again this afternoon generally with VFR. Some
cirrus aloft will also be streaming across the area. Radar
currently depicting a few pinpoint showers along developing
seabreeze. Will be carrying VCSH at all terminals during max
heating. Otherwise looking for the potential for some patchy fog
development again later tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1002 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

UPDATE...
Looking at upper air analysis from this morning, ridge a tad
weaker over the forecast area, as short wave seen on water vapor
imagery from the southern plains to central texas moves eastward.
Moisture values are slightly higher with PWAT near 1.4 inches.
Although, still some dry air in the mid levels, with relative
humidity in that region below 40 percent, for convection to
overcome. Some lift provided by the short wave and daytime
heating may be enough to get a few showers and thunderstorms going
this afternoon. Therefore, will not make any changes to the
forecast at this time.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 713 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
For 12z TAF issuance.

AVIATION...
12z sfc obs indicate a mix of conditions ongoing...the worst of
which is dense fog being reported at KARA. As per the norm expect
all sites to improve to VFR over the next hour or so...leaving
behind a day of mainly just sct cu and cirrus per forecast time-
height sections. The combo of lift from an approaching shortwave
over TX and a little deeper moisture over the ern sections of the
forecast area have led to the insertion of vcsh for
KAEX/KLFT/KARA for the afternoon hours.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...An upper level low is over the SW states this
morning with an short wave moving around the larger low and into
Texas. Associated with the short wave over Texas a line of storms
is moving south and east. Models agree that this activity will
mostly move south through this morning, however as the short wave
moves closer to Louisiana scattered storms will be possible by
this afternoon. With a hot and humid air mass in place and a
slight bit of divergence aloft storm coverage should be a little
higher than the past couple of afternoons.

Through mid week the upper low over the desert southwest will very
gradually move south and east. Ahead of the low very weak upper
ridging is expected over the northern gulf coast. This will keep
pops ranging from isolated to low end scattered and mostly diurnal through
Wednesday.

Late in the week and into the weekend, the pattern becomes wetter.
The upper low over the sw states very slowly moves closer and cuts
off while a weak frontal boundary drifts to the coast. This will
provide multiple days of rain again with some possibly being heavy
at times.

MARINE...Weak high pressure will remain across the coastal waters
through mid week keeping winds light and mainly onshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  70  91  69 /  30  20  20  10
LCH  90  70  89  71 /  20  10  20  10
LFT  90  72  91  71 /  30  10  20  10
BPT  89  71  89  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



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