Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 261804

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1204 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

clds beginning to spread into se Tx at this time ahead of the
shwrs late tnght. VFR to hold thru the aftn and into the eve
hrs. Ceilings dropping aftr midnight w/ scattered shwrs and
ptchy br.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 953 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/

Latest stlt images indcg mstr has surged into cntrl Tx this am.
This mstr surge is beginning to shift more eastward as the sfc
high pushes into the Mid-Atlantic states. This process will
continue with clds spilling in fm w to e drg the aftn hrs.
Temps to recover into upper 60s to lwr 70s as winds becm more
southerly. Looking for storm dvlpmnt late this eve/early mrng hrs
Monday. Storm chances incr thru the day on Monday. Monday eve
shrtwv energy exits w/ rdgg dvlpg aloft. Current zones are fine


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 530 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/

For the 26/12Z TAF Issuance.

Starting out the forecast period with clear skies, light east
surface winds, and VFR conditions, as high pressure centered over
the Tennessee River Valley continues to ridge down into the
region. This high will move off to the east today, with Low
pressure forming over western Texas and moving into the Southern
Plains. The result will be winds becoming more southeast by mid
morning, and continuing from the southeast and becoming more
breezy and gusty into the afternoon hours. The southerly wind flow
will bring in low level moisture, with clouds gradually
increasing during the day. Ceilings should remain at VFR today,
however, becoming MVFR during the evening and overnight hours.
Shower activity will also begin to increase by late evening into
the overnight hours as an upper level disturbance approaches the


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/


Short Term...Today through Wednesday...

Surface analysis shows a 1022 hPa high pressure centered over the
TN River Valley resulting in easterly surface flow across the CWA
this morning. Satellite imagery shows mainly zonal flow across the
eastern two thirds of the CONUS with a Pacific shortwave trough
moving over the southern CA coast. This shortwave trough will be
the primary influence on our weather over the next two days.

The surface high pressure is forecast to shift eastward resulting
in return flow developing this afternoon and increasing low level
moisture. The shortwave trough is forecast to be mostly sheared
out as it moves eastward today. However, it should still
contribute to an environment favorable for the development of a
weak surface low over western TX later today into tonight. As this
low lifts to the northeast on Monday, it will provide forcing for
ascent and the development of showers and thunderstorms. Most
convective activity should diminish shortly after sunset

A more significant shortwave trough will approach the SW US on
Tuesday resulting in rising heights across the region. Combined
with the best surface forcing being well north of the area, it
looks mostly dry for Mardi Gras celebrations with only a slight
chance of thunderstorms for the northern half of the CWA during
the day.

During the day on Tuesday, a stronger surface cyclone is forecast to
develop over the Central Plains in response to the approaching
shortwave. The cold front associated with the low will move
eastward and its associated cold front is expected to extended
down to the Gulf Coast. Showers and thunderstorms once again
appear likely on Wednesday with stronger forcing moving through.

Long Term...Thursday through Monday...

Model guidance indicates another zonal height pattern developing
over the region Thursday through Saturday. The next shortwave
trough is anticipated to dig further south into Mexico Saturday
into before lifting to the northeast Sunday into Monday. Guidance
is exhibiting quite a bit of spread with regards to the timing of
the upper level trough and associated surface low moving along the
northern Gulf Coast. So for now, will introduce chance PoPs Sunday
through Monday to be refined with future guidance and forecasts.

Onshore flow is forecast to develop through the day today as high
pressure located over the TN River Valley shifts eastward.
Sustained winds will range from 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts
this afternoon and small craft should exercise caution over the
outer coastal waters into Vermilion Bay this afternoon. Showers
and thunderstorms are likely on Monday as an upper level
disturbance moves across the region. Drier conditions are expected
on Tuesday before a low pressure system approaches from the west
on Wednesday and brings another chance for showers and


AEX  60  77  66  82 /  60  60  30  20
LCH  64  77  68  80 /  50  60  30  10
LFT  63  78  68  82 /  50  60  30  10
BPT  66  79  68  81 /  50  50  20  10




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