Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 251525

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1025 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Wx map shows weak frontal boundary nearly stalled across Southeast
Texas and Southern Louisiana. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
continue along the frontal boundary, and only expected to slowly
end/diminish from west to east later this morning into the
afternoon hours. A few reports of small hail and isolated wind
damage reports. Biggest concern will be the training of cells over
SE TX, and possibly over lower Acadiana. Have adjusted chances of
precipitation and QPF significantly upward along and south of I-10
to the coast, trending the ending from west to east improvement a
little later this afternoon. Other minor adjustments in
temperature/dewpoint/wind grids for current trends and latest



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 643 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

For the 03/25/17 1200 UTC TAF package.

Initial band of convection pushing through South Central LA at
this time with secondary upstream development occurring over E TX
along/ahead of a CDFNT. Relied heavily on short term guidance
(RAP/HRRR) for the convective timing at each terminal since it
appeared to have a relatively good grasp on current radar trends.
Period of MVFR CIGS will occur between the convection, with VFR
amid brisk WNW winds expected behind the front by afternoon.
Numerical MOS hinting at some light VSBY restrictions and/or MVFR
CIGS toward the end of the forecast period. Will let subsequent
shifts further evaluate this potential.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 456 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

A line of storms is progressing east acrs the area near 30 mph.
As of 430 am, the line extends from eastern Avoyelles Parish to
Cameron. So far, the line has produced quite a bit of lightning
along with some heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds, but nothing
reaching svr limits. This activity was occurring along a trough
in advance of a cold front that stretches from eastern OK south
acrs eastern TX, part of a large vertically stacked low pres
system over OK that is moving toward the lower/mid MS valley.


HRRR, NAM and RAP guidance this morning have been indicating
another line of convection developing behind the existing one,
along the cold front. Overnight trends in the regional radar
mosaic and IR stlt imagery have been slow to show this happening
thus far, although stlt has shown a thin line of clouds developing
and the past few volume scans are beginning to pick up a few
echoes. For now, kept highest PoPs along and east of where the
current band of storms is occurring this morning. However, low lvl
moisture is expected to remain sufficient ahead of the frontal
boundary that a few showers or storms could re-develop over the
area, especially once daytime heating starts. Thus, while the HRRR
has been rather aggressive with the development of this
convection early this morning, think things will trend that way
later on. That said, once any activity does develop, there will be
the potential for a few strong storms, with marginally svr wind
gusts most likely mainly from central LA into the Acadiana region
where SPC has a SLGT risk outlined for today.

Convection will shift east through the aftn as the upper trough
axis pivots east. Drier air will filter into the region with dry
weather expected tonight into Sunday. The cold front will not make
it through the area however, instead stalling and weakening. Highs
today are expected to reach the lower 80s. Some cooler air could
slip into our northwestern zones tonight, allowing for low
temperatures to fall into the middle 50s, but otherwise lows are
only forecast to reach the lower to middle 60s. A little more in
the way of sunshine on Sunday will allow high temperatures to be a
few degrees higher than today.

The next chc for showers and storms will arrive late Sunday night
into Monday as another in a series of low pres systems moves
through the region. Dynamics with this system will be a little
weaker over the area with conditions more conducive for strong to
svr storms expected to stay north of the area. This trough will
quickly transit the area within the progressive pattern aloft.
Some low rain chcs could linger over the area on Tuesday as a weak
sfc front stretches west to east acrs northern/central LA.

A more robust trough will cross the southwestern states and enter
the southern plains Wednesday. The upper trough and its
associated sfc low will move toward the lower/middle MS valley
through Thursday, bringing a decent chc for convection Wednesday
into Thursday. This system will also have the potential to bring
some svr storms to the area. However, there are some differences
in model solutions regarding timing and strength of the various
features. After a brief reprieve on Friday, another system looks
to affect the area by next weekend (just beyond this fcst period),
but ongoing differences among the global models keeps fcst
confidence rather low at this time.

Abv normal temperatures are expected to prevail again through the
upcoming week with lows in the 60s and highs in the lower to
middle 80s each day.


Strong southerly winds and elevated seas will diminish today with
winds becoming more southwesterly as a cold front approaches the
coastal waters and stalls. Sctd showers and tstms can be expected
this morning as the front moves into the area, with activity
exiting to the east late this aftn and evening as drier air moves
into the area. Winds will shift back to the south by Sunday as
the stalled front washes out. Light to moderate southerly winds
will prevail through early next week, strengthening by midweek as
another low pres system approaches from the west.



AEX  79  56  83  65 /  50  10  10  20
LCH  81  62  81  68 /  80  10  10  10
LFT  80  64  83  68 /  80  10  10  10
BPT  81  63  81  69 /  80  10  10  10


GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for



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