Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLCH 191753
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1253 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. KEPT VCTS/VCSH AT THE I-10 TERMINALS
WITH A WNW TO ESE ORIENTED MSTR AXIS STILL IN PLACE...THOUGH THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LIGHT MVFR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...SO TEMPO GROUPS WERE INSERTED AT ALL SITES.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER CELLS AND ISLTD TSTMS...ACRS
SE TX INTO THE NW GULF. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING WEST
OF THE CWA TOWARD HOUSTON...WHILE A FEW ISLTD SHOWERS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED LOWER SE TX AND ALONG THE S CNTL LA COAST.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING ALONG A ZONE OF LOW LVL CONVERGENCE
COMBINED WITH A TROF ALOFT OVER THE REGION. RECENT WV IMAGERY
SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FM THE NORTH AND THIS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RAIN CHCS OVER INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-10.
THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG AND S OF I-10. MAIN
AXIS OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT
AS NLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA.

MADE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FCST BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE. POPS WERE CHANGED SLIGHTLY BASED ON RECENT HRRR
RUNS...WHILE HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS WERE TWEAKED TO
REFLECT RECENT OBS AND TRENDS.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...

A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES THROUGH FREEPORT TO NAPLES FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND ADJACENT COAST FOR TODAY.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR NEAR COASTAL
WATERS...WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INLAND OF GALVESTON BAY.
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO FIRING ALONG LOW LEVEL 850 MB TROF AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE PER LATEST RUC. IR IMAGERY SHOWING
WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL ALTOCU OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE WATER
VAPOR CONTINUING TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST COMPLIMENTS OF THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE. WATER VAPOR FURTHER SHOWS MOISTURE BEGINNING TO BE SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD AS A DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEEPENING
SOUTHEAST CONUS TROF AND AMPLIFYING SOUTH CONUS RIDGE.

FOR TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY IN LINE WITH AXIS OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH AS MENTIONED WILL OVERSPREAD
THE INLAND AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN A
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MODELS STILL PINGING ON OUR NEXT FROPA COMING MONDAY. DID INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH A LITTLE MORE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE TO BE IN PLACE WITH PASSAGE. BLENDED TEMPS POST-FROPA
LANDING BETWEEN THE GFS...COOLER...AND THE ECMWF...WARMER.

MARINE...CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BECOMING REESTABLISHED WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO AND THROUGH THE
NEAR COASTAL WATERS MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND AN
OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  72  87  72 /  30  10  20  10
KBPT  84  73  85  73 /  40  20  20  10
KAEX  88  69  89  69 /  20  10  10  10
KLFT  86  72  88  72 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.