Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLCH 271750
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATOCU CONTINUES TO BREAK UP PER LATEST STLT IMAGES. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH JUST FEW/SCT CLOUDS AROUND
2000-2500 FT AND BREEZY NELY WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5-8 KT THIS EVENING...WITH MID LVL CLOUDS INCREASING FM THE WEST.
LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT WILL FILL IN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MVFR CIGS LATE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MORNING STRATOCU GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY INCOMING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SHORT-RANGE MODELS PROG ALL THE
LIFT TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO NO POP MENTION IS FINE
FOR NOW. JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST TO REMAINING GRIDS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WILL BE STARTING
THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME INTERMITTENT COLD AIR STRATOCU AT AROUND
2K FT ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES RISE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL ALTOCU AT AROUND 12K FT
WILL BE INCOMING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH IS SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING... AS TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BITTERLY COLD OVER
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS THE WARM SPOT AT
70 DEGREES. AS FOR US...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. SATELLITE IS
INDICATING A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THIS
HAS HELP TO KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN WE WOULD HAVE BEEN
OTHERWISE. BUT THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO WARMUP
THAT MUCH TODAY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS.

THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS WE ARE FINALLY GOING TO START A WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY
WE ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT THREE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
LAST TIME WE SAW MID 70S WAS ON THE FIRST OF FEBRUARY.

TWO EVENTS WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING DOWN
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL AGAIN PULL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF AND ABOVE THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THIS IS EXPECTED TO WASHOUT
THE FRONT WITH THE REGION WARMING. THE CHANCE FOR RAINS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL END ON THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE
ARE STARTING THE CHANGE FROM WINTER TO SPRING BUT MORE COLD FRONTS
ARE STILL ON TAP. 19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  34  57  52 /  10  10  20  40
KBPT  51  36  57  55 /  10  10  20  40
KAEX  43  30  55  47 /  10  10  10  40
KLFT  50  35  59  54 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.