Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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529
FXUS64 KLCH 100015
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
615 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
As high pressure settles over SE TX/S LA, winds offshore continue
to diminish this evening. Update included expiration of most Small
Craft Advisories except far SE 20-60 nm marine zone, which will
expire at 9 pm. Small Craft Exercise Caution will continue for the
20-60 nm marine zones and far eastern 0-20 nm marine zone for
most of the overnight hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 457 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

AVIATION...Vfr through the period. Winds will become more
easterly through the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Cold surface high pressure prevailing across the region this
afternoon, with temperatures this afternoon managing only the
upper 40s to lower 50s despite plenty of sun. The high is progged
to continue settling southeast into the Mid MS River valley
tonight, with a continued gradual relaxation of the pressure
gradient over the inland forecast area. Temperatures are forecast
to drop off quickly after sunset, with good radiational cooling
yielding the coldest temperatures of this forecast period. Visible
satellite does show some mid level clouds over East TX trying to
head east, but a review of isentropic fields suggests downglide
should remain dominant over our area, thus cloud cover is expected
to remain absent over the eastern 2/3 or so of the area, and patchy
at best over the western 1/3. With all of this in mind, have
issued a freeze warning for tonight for all but Jefferson County
and Cameron Parish, on the basis of a first light freeze for the
I-10 corridor, and a prolonged period of freezing temperatures
between 25 and 30 degrees over interior East TX and Central LA
generally along and north of the Hwy 190 corridor.

The surface high is expected to continue settling into the Eastern
CONUS tomorrow, with an easterly and then light southerly flow
returning and signaling the departure/moderation of this very
cold airmass. Moisture will also be on the uptick, especially on
Sunday as the depth and magnitude of southerly flow increases as a
shortwave trof traverses the Plains within the fast westerly flow
aloft. This feature will help nudge a cold front toward the area
late Sunday into Monday, with the Global model guidance becoming
quite divergent from Monday onward with the position of the front
as it becomes nearly stationary and subsequent possible cold air
intrusions amid the quasi-zonal flow aloft.

MARINE...
Strong and gusty northeast winds will continue to gradually
subside the rest of today and tonight as high pressure builds
south into the Mid MS River Valley. Winds will shift to the east
and then southeast on SAT as the high moves toward the East US,
with a light to modest onshore flow prevailing through the middle
of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  27  51  40  68 /   0   0   0  20
LCH  32  54  45  72 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  31  54  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  35  55  50  73 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Saturday for LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055.

TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Saturday for TXZ180-201-216-
     259>262.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST Saturday for GMZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST Saturday for GMZ455-
     470-472.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...08



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