Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 231712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
112 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 940 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Made some small adjustments to PoPs and temperatures based on latest
observations and incoming model data. Looks like the clouds/showers
might push slightly farther north than originally thought, so have
upped precipitation chances in some areas as well as dropping highs
a degree or two for the expected increase cloud cover. Otherwise,
rest of forecast looks on track.


.Short Term (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

An early morning surface analysis showed an area of low pressure
centered near Huntsville, Alabama with a cold front draped eastward
across GA and the Carolinas. Aloft, water vapor imagery and 500 mb
heights showed a closed low over the mid-MS River Valley.
Northeasterly flow prevailed locally with IR satellite imagery
showing a blanket of stratus across parts of central Kentucky.
Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s to low 50s across the area.

For today, the surface low will move slowly east/northeast toward
southwest North Carolina while the upper level low drops southeast
into northern Alabama. Our region will remain on the northern
periphery of this system. Wrap around showers are expected to
develop later this morning and continue through much of the day
across south-central Kentucky, mainly along and south of the KY
parkways. There will be sharp gradient across the area, with the
showers/clouds in the south, and mostly sunny and dry conditions
across north-central Kentucky and all of southern Indiana. This will
make for a sharp high temperature gradient as well, with the coolest
readings in the 50s under clouds/rain while near 70 degree highs are
possible across southern Indiana. Additional rainfall of 1/2 to
locally 1 inch is possible across far south-central Kentucky. Plan
on northeast winds to continue with some gusts to 25 mph at times.

Low clouds and showers will subside and taper off this evening as
the upper level low pulls away from the region. Plan on another
seasonable night with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

For Monday, upper level ridging builds in from the west, and expect
dry conditions with high temperatures in the 70s.

.Long Term (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Upper level ridging will continue Tuesday through the first part of
Wednesday, bringing seasonable temperatures and dry conditions to
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Plan on highs to warm into
the upper 70s on Tuesday and low/mid 80s on Wednesday. Morning lows
are forecast to be in the 50s.

By Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, forecast guidance in
reasonable agreement showing a cold front will cross the region.
Current consensus brings the front through late Wednesday night or
Thursday morning, at the instability minimum, so while wind fields
are sufficient for stronger storms, the lack of instability should
limit severe chances. Continued with a model blend for precipitation
chances, mainly in the 40 to 60 percent range.

For Thursday into next weekend, model solutions differ as the
overall weather pattern becomes more unsettled. The upper levels are
forecast to have a trough dig deep into the southwest US while
pieces of energy eject out into the central Plains. There remains
quite a bit of timing and location differences but overall will
advertise shower and thunderstorm chances Friday through next
weekend with near or slightly above normal temperatures.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 112 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Upper low over southwestern TN is forecast to sag southeastward into
southern Georgia over the upcoming TAF period.  A steady stream of
moisture will continue to lift northward into KY keeping skies
mostly cloudy in areas along and south of the Ohio River.  The upper
low will likely bring MVFR cigs and vsbys to KBWG this afternoon
with occasional rain showers.  MVFR cigs are also likely at KLEX as
well.  Further northwest at KSDF, the terminal will remain on the
northwestern edge of the moisture, so a high ceiling is likely to
persist into the evening hours.  Northeast winds of 10-13kts with
occasional gusts up to 20kts will be seen through the afternoon

For tonight, short term models suggests that skies will clear slowly
from the northwest.  Best chances of clearing are at KSDF given its
more northerly location.  MVFR ceilings are likely to persist at
KLEX and KBWG until Monday afternoon as the upper level system moves
away from the region.




Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
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