Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 141538
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1138 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1120 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2014

In the wake of early morning convection, a more stable atmosphere
has really reduced convection across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky. Think that only some isolated light showers will continue
through early afternoon west of I - 65 and across southern Indiana.
Scattered thunderstorms will however continue along and southeast of
the Parkways within a more unstable environment.

Later this afternoon and especially this evening, scattered
thunderstorms will approach southern Indiana ahead of a stout cold
front now located across central Illinois. Depending on how much
current cloudiness limits subsequent instability, some storms later
this afternoon may become strong, with brief heavy rain and gusty
winds.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon July 14 2014

The deep upper low will continue to drop southeastward towards the
Great Lakes region through Tuesday morning before starting to lift
back to the northeast through the day Tuesday. At the surface a
weakening front stretches across central Kentucky early this
morning. The stronger cold front remains back across northern
Illinois. This front will head southward towards the forecast area
today and is expected to move through late today into the overnight
hours.

Early this morning, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
continue to form along the weakening frontal boundary. A disturbance
aloft is helping to enhance this activity. Mesoscale models are in
fairly decent agreement this morning that this activity will
continue to develop across southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky for the next few hours. It is then expected to begin to
sink south and east across central Kentucky through the morning and
possibly in to the early afternoon hours. The main threat this
morning with these storms will be the potential for some training of
storms leading to ponding of water or possibly localized minor
flooding. We are still seeing some higher winds in some of the
activity over central Kentucky as well so gusty winds of 40-45 mph
may be possible at times as well.

As the morning storms sink southward it looks like southern IN and
north central KY could see a break in precip for a period of time
today. There is some uncertainty regarding the evolution/development
of storms this afternoon and evening as the cold front nears.
Synoptically there will be better forcing than yesterday. However,
depending on how long the storms linger this morning and how much
convective debris inhibits insolation, instability may be limited
this afternoon. If we do become unstable a few severe storms will be
possible with damaging wind gusts and possibly large hail.
Regardless, think that coverage of storms this afternoon and evening
will be less than this morning so have gone with scattered coverage
across the area. Precipitation should come to an end overnight as
the front moves through, with just a few showers or storms
potentially lingering across far east central KY into Tuesday
morning.

High temperatures this afternoon are a bit of a challenge as the
aforementioned clouds may limit heating. Will go with highs in the
mid to upper 80s for now. Lows tonight will drop back into the 60s.
Much cooler and drier air will push in tomorrow. High temperatures
will top out in the mid to upper 70s, some 10-12 degrees below
normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2014

Used mostly a blended forecast between previous forecast and new set
of models coming in, given more of an eye to radar early this
morning. First half of the period looks quiet with below normal
temperatures. GFS has become more aggressive with a late week low
pressure system moving up the mid MS river valley. The timing would
lead to better rain chances across our region Friday and departing
Saturday, but some residual moisture and warming temperatures back
to near seasonal levels will also lead to seasonal rain chances by
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2014

Scattered to numerous showers continue this morning as a weak
disturbance crosses the area. Some embedded thunder is still present
in the precipitation, though it has decreased over the last couple
hours. Will continue to carry VCTS at all sites to cover the
embedded thunder. Precipitation will continue at SDF and LEX through
at least mid morning. It will likely last until at least early
afternoon at BWG. A lull in precipitation is expected this
afternoon. Confidence is lower on whether any storms will impact the
terminals this evening, so will keep mention of it out of the TAFs
at this time.

Winds today will generally be out of the SW outside of any
thunderstorms. Winds will shift to westerly this evening and then
northwesterly overnight as a cold front moves through the area.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......




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