Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 221040

640 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2014

Cooler temperatures and dry weather are in store for the start of
fall today into tomorrow. Early this morning an upper level trough
will swing across the region. An area of clouds associated with this
trough looks to clip portions of southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky. These clouds should move out fairly early this morning
with mostly sunny skies expected for the remainder of the day.
Surface high pressure will build in through the period keeping
things dry and skies mostly clear.

With a colder airmass continuing to build in today, temperatures
will top out only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tonight will be
quite chilly with lows ranging from the lower to mid 40s. Some of
the typically cooler spots in north central KY and southern IN could
bottom out right around 40. Tuesday will be a bit warmer with highs
in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2014

Ridging aloft should stick around most of this period, save for
perhaps Sunday, when both the new GFS and the 12Z Euro have an upper
low crossing the region. The source is different for each model,
with the GFS version to our west, and thus having a better shot at
rains. Given how this rain was in for Saturday`s forecast at this
point yesterday, confidence is pretty low for rains on Sunday.
Blended model forecast keeps in slight chances, as per previous
forecaster, so will keep those in for now.

Temperatures will stay near normal for highs and a little below for
lows Wednesday and Thursday morning, then go to near or just above
normal for lows the rest of the period.


.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2014

An area of clouds moved through SDF this morning and may bring a few
to scattered clouds to LEX over the next couple of hours. After
that, mainly clear skies are expected through the remainder of the
TAF period. Winds will be out of the north to north-northeast in the
7-9 knot range today. As high pressure moves in tonight winds will
become light and variable to calm.




Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
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