Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 300451
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1251 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1215 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Well, just did a grid update for convective development across the
northern Bluegrass region where the weak frontal zone has initiated
storms. Have included 30 to 60 POPS for 4z and then just 30 pops for
the far NE ern counties for 05z, and thereafter dry fcst for the
CWA.

The front has worked with higher dew point and moisture pooling to
initiate these storms.  These storms will be out of the CWA by 06z
and just called JKL to coordinate. Storm in Clark County might even
have some b b hail.

Otherwise for tonight perhaps some patchy fog across Srn KY with the
front slowly sagging south and not moving very much. For now left
this out of the fcst.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

It`s warm and humid out there this afternoon with temperatures in
the mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. The concern for the
remainder of the afternoon will be thunderstorms. Storms have begun
to develop along a weak front moving across southeast IL and central
IN. The region has become relatively unstable with 1000-2000 J/kg of
surface based CAPE. However, wind shear remains weak. Precipitable
water values have decreased during the day, but are still 1.2-1.3
inches. All in all, organized severe weather is not expected.
However, a few storms could become strong. Gusty winds and very
heavy downpours would be the main concern. Storms are expected to
remain scattered in nature. The best coverage will be this afternoon
along and north of the Ohio River. Think that coverage should
decrease as the front heads east into the evening hours. The rain
should exit east central KY by late evening with the rest of the
overnight hours remaining dry.

Memorial day looks to be warm and dry. Though temperatures will be
similar to today, dewpoints are expected to decrease a few degrees
in the wake of the front. Highs will top out in the mid 80s. Dry
weather will continue Monday night with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will bring dry weather
for the beginning of the long term period. Tuesday through most of
Wednesday will see mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. The main
question will be how hot it will get. Some of the guidance suggests
a high of 90 at SDF on Wednesday. However, increasing clouds and
very green vegetation may work against temps getting that high. For
now will go with highs in the mid to upper 80s across the region for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.

Rain chances will be on the increase late Wednesday afternoon into
the nighttime hours as a front approaches and moves into the area.
This front will continue to slowly sink south and east Thursday into
Thursday night. The best shot at showers and storms looks to be
during the day Thursday.

The front looks to stall just south of the KY/TN border on
Friday/Friday night with lingering storm chances across south
central KY. This precipitation should move out by Saturday morning
with a dry start to the weekend. Temperatures Friday and Saturday
will be a bit cooler in the wake of the front. Highs will be in the
mid to upper 70s with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1251 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Fog is the main concern in the TAF package as we sit in a still,
humid atmosphere behind a weak departing front. It looks like MVFR
BR is a good bet at BWG and LEX during the typical time of day a few
hours either side of sunrise. Will keep urban SDF BR-free.

High pressure moving in today will keep winds light and VFR skies
partly cloudy/mostly clear for the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT/JDG/JMD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......13



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