Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 291852
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
252 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Strong upper ridge over the region looks to keep the forecast mainly
dry through Tues night.  The exception will be this afternoon when a
few isld showers/storms are expected and have begun to develop as of
1830Z.  Still expect coverage to be minimal and storm strength
relatively weak.  If a strong storm does develop, the greatest
threats would be strong wind gusts and brief heavy downpours.

Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s/lower 90s for highs Tues
with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s both tonight and Tues night.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Wednesday - Saturday...

The long awaited relief to the hot, muggy airmass is on the way.  A
cold front will arrive Wed night.  Ahead of the front,
showers/storms are expected Wed.  Southern Indiana and north central
KY will stand the best chance (30-40%) at seeing convection Wed
before the front weakens and instability diminishes Wed night.  No
severe wx is expected Wed attm.  Wed high temps may be a bit tricky
based on timing of the fropa and cloud/precip coverage.  For now
will go with a range from the mid 80s over southern IN to the lower
90s over south central KY. Wed night lows will be in the 60s.

Pleasant, dry weather is expected through Sat with an upper trough
and sfc high pressure over the region.  High temps will drop back
into the upper 70s/lower 80s for the second half of the week with
low temps in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

Sunday - Monday...

An upper level ridge will work back into the region for the
beginning of next week resulting in increasing temps and humidity
levels again.  Right now, highs look to creep back into the upper
80s for the beginning of next week.  Will continue a dry forecast
with no noticeable triggers in model data to initiate showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

The main issue for the TAFs this afternoon will be whether any
storms affect the terminals. The latest short term model guidance
suggests that coverage of storms will be fairly isolated this
afternoon. The best chance may be at BWG as a few storms fired not
far to the north of there this morning along an old boundary.
However, given the low coverage expected, have removed VCTS from the
TAFs for this afternoon. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are
expected with light northeasterly winds. BWG may also have a brief
period of light fog tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........EER



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