Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 282331
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
531 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER THIS EVENING AS A PRE-
FRONTAL ENTERS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE
FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS TO COME MONDAY EVENING BRINGING A START TO
WORSENING AVIATION WX CONDITIONS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM REMAINS
OVERDONE ON THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM SHOWS FOG DEVELOPING DIRECTLY NEAR THE NON-EXISTENT
SNOWPACK WHICH IN REALITY IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT. WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER
COOL DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR PLUNGE ENGULFS THE REGION.
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH BUT THE COLDER AIR WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE EVENING.

LONG TERM...
PATTERN AHEAD STILL FAVORS WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUE AND NEW
YEARS EVE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP...BEFORE DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT IMPROVES LATER IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A STILL
UNDEVELOPED UPPER LOW. THE FACT THIS TROUGH IS JUST IN ITS
FORMATIVE STAGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON IMPLIES
THE WINDOW REMAINS WIDE OPEN FOR DEPARTURES TO THE LATE WEEK
FORECAST. AS THIS TROUGH DIVES SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
TUESDAY...AN IMPRESSIVE 1055 MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE DISLODGED
SOUTH TO NEAR THE RED RIVER BY NEW YEARS DAY...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER
THAN ITS PROGGED 1060 MB (!) PEAK INTENSITY ON TUE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO AS
SOON AS TUE MORNING MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE SUB-CLOUD MOISTURE
DEFICITS ARE LOWER THAN FARTHER EAST. LIFT FROM STEADY ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND E-NELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCES FOR THIS
LIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT BY LATE TUE INTO WED MID AND UPPER SATURATION
ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE AS WINDS BACK MORE SWLY DOWNSTREAM OF A
BURGEONING UPPER CYCLONE IN THE GREAT BASIN. THIS PROCESS COULD
EASILY ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER OPPORTUNITIES CULMINATING WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT ASCENT OVERALL APPEARS QUITE
SUBDUED SO WINTRY ACCUMS INCLUDING FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEAR MINOR
AT THIS TIME.

AS TEMPORARY S/W RIDGING UNFOLDS OVERHEAD NEW YEARS EVE NIGHT...A
WARM NOSE IS SHOWN TO SHARPEN OVER THE REGION IN THE 300-305K
LAYER. THIS STOUT WARM NOSE STILL LOOKS TO DEEPEN AND QUICKLY
OVERWHELM MUCH OF THE LOWER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OF ALL WINTRY
PRECIP BY LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI EVEN AS HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEPER
ASCENT UNFOLD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
REASONABLY CLUSTERED WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE CWA BY
FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER THE 12Z GFS IS LESS EAGER TO FILL/DECAY THE
LOW COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECM. THIS RAISES CONCERN ABOUT THE
DURATION OF ENHANCED LIFT AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP AMOUNTS. BUT SINCE
THIS LOW HAS YET TO EVEN DEVELOP...WE SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
SERIOUS ADJUSTMENTS TO LATE WEEK POPS WHICH STILL MATCH WELL WITH
CURRENT MOS DATA.

MAX TEMPS WERE NUDGED LOWER TUE AND WED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL
FAVORING CLOSE TO MOS GIVEN ABUNDANT STRATUS. AN EASY OVERTURNING
OF THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR STILL APPEARS FEASIBLE BY THU...BUT AM
SKEPTICAL OF THE STRONG WARMING PROGGED BY MOS GIVEN THICK CLOUDS.
OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THE COOLER GFS AND ECM RAW NUMBERS FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        19  45  14  23  10 /   0   0  10  20  30
TULIA         19  46  15  23  12 /   0   0  10  20  30
PLAINVIEW     22  48  16  24  13 /   0   0  10  20  30
LEVELLAND     26  51  18  26  15 /   0   0   0  20  30
LUBBOCK       24  50  19  26  15 /   0   0   0  20  30
DENVER CITY   24  51  20  27  18 /   0   0   0  10  30
BROWNFIELD    25  52  19  27  17 /   0   0   0  20  30
CHILDRESS     22  48  20  28  15 /   0   0   0  10  20
SPUR          26  53  21  29  17 /   0   0   0  10  30
ASPERMONT     27  55  23  31  19 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26





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