Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 260443
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1143 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR is generally expected through the forecast period, although
short term guidance suggests the potential for stratus to develop
around sunrise Thursday morning especially in the vicinity of
KLBB and KPVW. We have added a small mention of minor restrictions
for KLBB later tonight, but confidence otherwise is too low for
broader mention in the TAFs. We certainly will be watching the
moisture return behind the dryline retreat for the possibility of
more widespread ceilings and visibility drops into mvfr/ifr range
before clearing out soon after sunrise. Aloft, there is a weak
disturbance that also will swing through overnight. This may
generate isolated thunder after 06z, but not enough confidence
again for specific mention in any of the TAFs.

&&

.UPDATE...
We have updated to add isolated thunder after midnight as a weak
impulse crosses the area. Energy levels remain fairly high as
well. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 732 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR expected through the overnight. Deeper moisture expected to
remain to the south and east of the terminals attm. Breezy south
to southwesterly winds develop by late Thursday morning and
persisting through the afternoon and evening hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

SHORT TERM...
An upper level low will move to the east from southern California
this afternoon to the 4-corners noon Thursday then toward the Sangre
de Cristos by the end of the day. Some pressure falls this evening
will allow for the backing of the low level flow toward the south,
in turn drawing low level moisture back into much of the eastern two-
thirds of the forecast area by sunrise Thursday. Some stratus should
accompany this low level moisture. Will also see an increase in mid
level moisture overnight as jet energy rounds the base of the upper
low and ejects toward West Texas. The setup may be conducive to some
isolated elevated showers and thunder late tonight across the
southern row or two of counties. Confidence and expected coverage
are both low. Will nudge PoPs up toward or just past 10 percent
those areas but keep precip mention out of the forecast for now.

As the low ejects across the 4-corners Thursday will see the dryline
mix eastward to the Rolling Plains during the afternoon, possibly
east of the forecast area by the end of the day. Still some signal
that enough low level moisture will hang on, primarily across the
southern Rolling Plains, to result in convective initiation in the
eastern zones. Will trim PoPs slightly, but maintain 20-30 percent
that area. Behind the dryline, breezy to windy and very dry air will
help push temperatures to or past the 90 degree mark.

LONG TERM...
After being in a wet pattern we will settle temporarily into a
dry(er) pattern. The dryline will retreat late Thursday into early
Friday and will allow for a shot at some late convection in our
southeastern zones. The severe threat will be limited as surface
heating will not be available to increase instability and lapse
rates will be anything but impressive. Bulk shear will be decent (60
knots) but will drop by half fairly quickly by midnight. The dryline
will not retreat far across the FA before the passing upper level
low kicks it eastward. The weather Saturday will be warm but
pleasant as upper level flow is out of the southwest but light and
the surface pressure gradient is relaxed. Moisture will begin its
return to the region by early Sunday as a lee trof develops ahead of
an approaching upper level trof over the Pacific Coast. Several
disturbances ahead of the upper trof will allow for plenty of
opportunity for more rain. Severe potential, at least concerning the
synoptic pattern, will be low as shear will be at best weak. This is
not to say that no severe storms are possible as there may be enough
instability to allow a few storms to produce mainly strong winds
and large hail. Overall the largest threat will be from heavy rain
due to storms being slow moving. The upper trof will be slow to push
through with the GFS and ECMWF keeping the trof around until Friday
of next week. Temperatures will be a bit tricky Sunday going into
mid next week as cloud cover could keep things a few degrees cooler.
Overall we should see highs average in the 80s. Aldrich

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99


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