Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 221728

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1228 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

VFR next 24 hours.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

Low impact weather is expected for the next 5 days with dry
northwest flow aloft through early week before upper flow flattens
mid-week. Colder weather seems more certain by week`s end.

This morning`s cool surface ridge will give way to surface
troughing later today and a brief warmup into early Monday. A
shallow cold front will surge into the area Monday leading to
additional cooling into Tuesday. Then, we expect Wednesday and
possibly Thursday to turn mild and breezy before a strong
Canadian cold front sweeps through by late Thursday - this
associated with significant re-amplification of the western ridge
and plains trough.

Solutions generally agree on the amplification and thus the
colder trend late week. But disagree still on how sharp the trough
will become and how much energy may cross the southern plains
Friday into early Saturday. Pattern in general has trended towards
the sharper trough scenario, though away from a closed upper low
as in earlier ECMWF runs. We added a low chance for precipitation
Friday and early Saturday mainly on the Caprock, confidence not
terribly high but more-so than last night, and indicated mixed
liquid and frozen given expected thermal profiles. Also, added
mention of freeze potential for on the Caprock Friday night to the
Hazardous Weather Outlook. RMcQueen




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