Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 262013
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFFSHORE
AND TRACK NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

UPDATE...CANCELLED A LARGE SECTION OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
SURROUNDING THE NRN VA BLUE RIDGE ON EITHER SIDE. CONTINUED TO THE
ADVISORY ELSEWHERE AND THE WARNING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGANY FRONT.

THE MID-ATLC IS CURRENTLY IN THE RELATIVE IN-BETWEEN LULL ZONE W/
ONE SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WEAKENING AND THE OTHER SIDE
INTENSIFYING. STILL WATCHING FOR THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
APLCNS TO SWING AROUND AND PROMOTE MORE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVE/TONIGHT. GUIDANCE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A GENERALIZED ZONE OF BANDING FROM ROUGHLY KHGR TO KNHK...THAT
DISPLACES AND SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. REGARDLESS
OF EXACT TIMING/AMOUNTS...NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL
1-2" W/ ANY DISTINCT BAND THAT SETS-UP. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY HIGHER
POTENTIAL IN NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE MEMBERS...LOCALIZED WRF DERIVATIVES
AND THE LIKE.

TEMPS HAVE BEEN ON A WAVY PATTERN WITHIN A COUPLE DEG OF FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPEC SOUTH AND EAST OF DC BUT ALSO INCLUDING
MUCH OF THE METRO AREAS. MODIFIED TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
DROPPING MOST AREAS DOWN AT LEAST AN INCH WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE
LOWER AMOUNTS FROM EARLIER TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SNOW
SINCE EARLIER THIS MRNG HAVE NOT BEEN ACCUMULATING EFFICIENTLY W/
TEMPS IN THE MID-U30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE APLCNS WEAKENS AND GETS COMPLETELY
ABSORBED INTO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLC COAST....THE
SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHUT DOWN QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE MID MRNG HRS
TUE. A LINGERING BAND MAY SET UP OVER THE CHES BAY/DELMARVA THAT
COULD INCH OVER INTO THE WRN SHORE MD COUNTIES BUT NOT LIKELY MUCH
FURTHER WEST OF THERE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO MIDDAY BUT THEY WILL
BE QUICKLY PUSHED TOWARD THE EAST BY A STRENGTHENING NW WINDS...
COURTESY OF THE INTENSE LOW WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. TEMPS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING TUE AFTN...BUT WIND CHILLS
WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 20S/L30S FROM THE GUSTY AND DRIER NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

TIME FLIES - 4 YRS AGO TDA WAS ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE AFTN/EVE`S
OF WINTER WX XPRNCD HERE AS HVY SN/IP AT RUSH HR CAUSED THOUSANDS
OF CARS TO BE STRANDED ON AREA ROADS.

TUE NGT THRU WED NGT LOOKING LK A FAIRLY QUIET PD WXWISE. COLD
TEMPS WL BE THE KEY CONCERN - COLD AIR WL BE PUSHED INTO THE MID
ATLC AS INTENSE LOW PRES CAUSES BLZRD CONDS IN SRN NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRES WL BE BLDG INTO THE CWA.

LOWS TUE NGT PRIMARILY IN THE MU TEENS...L20S IN THE CITIES...
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MTNS. HIGHS WED IN THE 30S...20S IN THE
HIGHLANDS. LOWS WED NGT FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUE NGT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA. SNOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS
THURSDAY MORNING AND AS PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD AND TEMPS
RISE SNOW MAY TRANSITION TO RAIN. AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS OF
LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY.
THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND A COLD
FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A RELATIVE LULL IN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S PASSAGE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLC. EARLIER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED TO LIGHT SNOW
OR JUST LOW CIGS THIS AFTN. INTO THE LATE EVE HRS...ANOTHER WAVE OF
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN SHEN VLY TO
THE SRN MD SHORES...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE DC/BALT AREA. CIGS
WILL REMAIN MVFR OR LOWER INTO EARLY TUE...W/ VSBYS ONLY DROPPING W/
HEAVIER SNOW ACTIVITY. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT - FOR THOSE WHO HAVEN`T ALREADY. TUE MRNG
WILL HAVE ONLY A BRIEF BOUT W/ SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY...NEAR DAWN
CLOSER TO THE CHES BAY THEN LOW CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE
AFTN HRS.


VFR CONDS TUE NGT THRU WED NGT.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. SN OR RA WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

WIDESPREAD SCA CONDS STILL OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS...STAYING THE
COURSE INTO LATER THIS EVE. GALE GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO APPEAR OVER THE
MAIN CHANNEL AND LOWER BAY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS
THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO TUE AFTN
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT AREAS TO OUR NE...GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY.

SCA CONDS WL STILL BE XPRNCD TUE NGT AND WED...FINALLY DIMINISHING
WED NGT AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE WATERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY AND SCA WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ003-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ004>006-
     011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ016>018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ028-031-
     503-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ052>054-
     505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ055>057.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-502-504>506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ501-503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...GMS/WOODY!/HAS






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