Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 062313 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
613 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER ARKANSAS...AND WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TO SPREAD TO ALL TERMINALS BY 13-16Z. HAVE ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD NOT BE
IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE AFTERNOON CU FIELDS. HOWEVER...IF
ANY CU DOES FORM SAT AFTERNOON...THE MOST LIKELY PLACE WOULD BE IN
WESTERN ARKANSAS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KHRO AND KHOT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE STATE. THIS SFC
HIGH WILL SHIFT SE FOR SAT...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SRLY FOR SAT
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS ON SAT.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE....ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY
WITH THE SRLY FLOW INCREASING AND WITH SW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THESE INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS...COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SOME SHRA/TSRA BY SUN AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THESE PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE LIMITED TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE STATE COMING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HIGHS ON SUN WILL ALSO BE WARM...BUT MAY BE A TAD COOLER THAN
ON SAT AS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CWA.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE JUST A MEMORY WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS
WITH A STRETCH OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT ONE IS NOT
FAVORED OVER ANOTHER AND A COMPROMISE OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE WITH MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO FEED INTO THE REGION. UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE REFLECTION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE STARTING TO BECOME SOMEWHAT STRONGER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS POTENTIALLY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM FOR A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCES BEYOND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE IN
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS ANOTHER SURFACE
FEATURE DEVELOPS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IN SPITE OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
IN THE AREA. OVERALL THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD AND ARE GENERALLY
ACCEPTED.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64


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