Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 201117 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
517 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS LIKELY BY MID
DAY...WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVING TO VFR. HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN...WITH VISBYS RESTRICTED TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE OVERALL
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. WHILE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG...MOST
SITES WILL SEE VIS REMAIN OVER 1 MILE. WHILE FOG WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UP TO ABOUT
THE 850 MB LEVEL...ALLOWING FOR VERY LITTLE IF ANY MIXING FOR A
CLEARING SKY. WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS...BUT ONLY IF AT LEAST SOME MIXING
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS FROM ALOFT CAN INITIATE. WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOL AGAIN FOR THIS SAT...REMAINING IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE WHERE THERE MAY BE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING THE
CLOUDS BREAK.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SUNSHINE FOR SUN AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SW OVER THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE
50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON ACROSS THE REGION AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR
TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND LIFTING NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUE. TUE WILL BE A DAY WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING HRS...THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...KEEP PRECIP ONLY LIQUID AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SWITCH
OVER TO SOME WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BEHIND
IT. WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MIXED WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CENTRAL AND
NORTH BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...AND BY CHRISTMAS...WINDS SHOULD BE BACK FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57




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