Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 292346
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
646 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT HAS ENTERED NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BUT THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY AS THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS IT GOES THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE. EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

CLOUDS HAVE ERODED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. ALSO ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...HAS BEEN DEWPOINTS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE GULF
UP INTO ARKANSAS. DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. HRRR...SREF...AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A RISK FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL. TRENDED POPS
TOWARDS THE HRRR MODELS WITH BEST CHANCES FROM 03Z TO 10Z.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO SOUTH ARKANSAS BY 12Z...AND REMAIN NEAR THE
ARKANSAS LOUISIANA BORDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM BEFORE
WASHING OUT. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. EXPLICIT OUTPUT FROM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     44  69  49  74 /  20  10  10  20
CAMDEN AR         54  71  56  77 /  60  30  20  20
HARRISON AR       41  70  51  75 /  20   0  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    49  71  55  76 /  40  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  48  70  52  75 /  40  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     56  70  54  76 /  70  30  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      48  71  54  75 /  40  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  71  50  76 /  20   0  10  20
NEWPORT AR        45  69  49  74 /  30  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     51  69  54  75 /  60  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   45  73  50  76 /  20  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         44  69  48  74 /  30  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      49  69  52  74 /  50  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





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