Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 251139 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
539 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT
SURROUNDING IT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS AROUND 10 KT...WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE FRONT...AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. BEYOND THAT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT...
WITH CLOUD CLEARING OUT. TAFS ALREADY OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE CWA. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS NERN OK AND NWRN AR...BUT MUCH...IF ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
NOT REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS NEAR THE SFC. EVEN SO...DO THINK OVER TIME THAT ENOUGH
LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS THE
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVE OVER THE STATE. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH LOW END
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN AND NERN COUNTIES. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH THE
STRONGEST AND MORE WIDESPREAD WINDS WILL COME WITH THE FROPA LATE
THIS MORNING AND MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO
THE WEST AND NW BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH EXPECTED...AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY. AS A RESULT...WILL POST A LAKE WIND ADV EFFECTIVE FROM 16Z
THIS MORNING THROUGH 03Z MON FOR ALL COUNTIES.

FOR THIS SUN NIGHT...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
STATE...BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINING TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NERN COUNTIES UNDER THE UPPER SHORTWAVE.
SOME FLURRIES MAY EVEN BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND NERN COUNTIES
AS TEMPS COOL OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AND TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS NW UPPER FLOW SHIFTS EAST AND AN
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE REGION.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH
COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

AVIATION...57




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