Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 081743 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1143 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure
builds into the region from the northwest. Winds will gradually
lessen, especially after sunset, and turn veer to a more
north/northeasterly direction with time.

&&


Prev Discussion.../Issued 303 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

Main concerns in this forecast period will mainly start as a
temperature forecast, while this morning light and patchy
precipitation is moving south and with little to no impacts. The
coldest air of the late Fall season will filter into AR and bring
some record lows Friday AM. Then a slow warming over the weekend.
The next chance of rain will be Sunday and into early next week,
with at this time temperatures warm enough for mainly a rain
forecast.
Late Tuesday to Wednesday, colder air does filter in behind the
cold front and a possible mix may be seen.

Currently arctic high pressure was filtering cold and dry air into
AR with a northwest wind flow. Temperatures were from the upper
20s to lower 30s in the north, while the mid 30s to around 40 in
central to southern locations. Dew point temperatures were from
the 20s to 30s statewide. Some moisture was seen in the atmosphere
with areas of low and mid clouds across AR, as well as thin high
clouds streaming across the region with the upper west flow. As
the drier and cold air filters into AR, the lower clouds will thin
and dissipate, only leaving upper clouds. Early did see some
patchy light rain and flurries, but area radars are showing a this
area weakening and dissipating over southern AR.

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

Mostly cloudy conditions will be seen this morning, while expect
all precipitation chances to push out of the CWA to far southern
AR to northern LA to MS. Today the coldest air of the season will
begin to filter into the state. Highs will only reach the lower
to mid 30s in the north, to the upper 30s to lower to mid 40s
central to south. Also a north wind will keep a chill in the air.
Clouds are expected to gradually thin today but some high clouds
will still be seen. More clearing tonight and very cold lows are
forecast Friday morning. Lows will drop to the teens to lower 20s
in the north, lower 20s central, to the lower and mid 20s in the
south. Winds will lower, but still create wind chill values from
the single digits in the north, while teens and 20s across the
central areas. Friday will see mostly sunny conditions, but due to
the very cold air in-place, highs will only reach the mid to upper
30s over the north, while upper 30s to lower 40s central and
south. This is 10 to 20 degrees below normal values. The surface
high pressure settles over AR Friday night, with light winds and
good radiational cooling. Saturday morning lows will again be
around 20 in the north, to lower to mid 20s the rest of the state.
Some record lows will be seen over AR.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Below average temperatures will continue through the period.

High pressure will shift eastward early in the weekend, with
temperatures moderating as winds gain more of a southerly component.
Around Sunday, low pressure developing in the plains will drag a
cold front into the region, with rain developing. Any precipitation
will be stratiform in nature, thus thunderstorm chances are
negligible. Precipitation chances will decrease on Sunday night,
with possible brief light wintry precipitation in the north.

The frontal boundary will stall out around Monday, with another
frontal boundary affecting the area on Tuesday.

Models are diverging a bit on the Tuesday system, with the GFS
having the most QPF and the ECMWF much less optimistic. For now,
have gone with small precipitation chances, primarily over the
central and eastern areas as the front passes.

Regardless of which situation pans out, colder air will follow the
system.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...64



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