Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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768
FXUS64 KLZK 280844
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
344 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
each day, although mainly in the afternoon to evening,
forecasting temperatures, and finally any influence on the region
from a possible tropical low in the Gulf of Mexico.

Currently surface and upper level high pressure are over the
region, while low level moisture levels remain high with dew point
temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Do expect some
patchy fog this morning over AR. Convection on Saturday was more
focused over north central, western to northwestern AR, while
very little in the east. The upper level high pressure system to
the east of AR did build a bit more west, and helped keep lift
over the western and northwest areas of AR. Expect a similar
situation today. Seeing some light showers forming over far
southern AR with movement toward the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night

The forecast will start with patchy fog across AR, with a slight
chance of showers and isolated thunder over parts of southern and
western AR. Will expand the slight chance of convection in the
afternoon period to much of AR, except for far southeast AR.
Movement of storms will be northwest around the upper high
pressure system. Highs will be from the upper 80s to mid 90s,
while heat index values will only reach around 100 degrees. Sunday
night will be mainly dry with lows in the 70s. Monday will again
see just a slight chance of convection, and mainly in the
afternoon to early evening, as the upper high pressure system caps
much of the convection potential, especially in the east. Dewpoint
temperatures will lower a degree or two, and hence heat index
values will lower just a bit too on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

An upper ridge will be over the southern U.S. through much of the
period. On Wednesday, an upper trough dives into the northeast and
the upper high shifts to the west. The ridging will continue over
the center part of the country through Saturday.

The high pressure will keep rain chances limited over Arkansas
during the long term period. A cold front will move into north
Arkansas late Wednesday night and bring better chances of
thunderstorms to the north. Otherwise, isolated afternoon
thunderstorms can be expected. The front should move out of the
state Friday afternoon. Near normal temperatures are expected
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  73  90  72 /  20  10  20  10
Camden AR         93  74  92  74 /  20  10  20  10
Harrison AR       88  69  87  69 /  20  10  20  10
Hot Springs AR    92  73  90  73 /  20  10  20  10
Little Rock   AR  93  75  91  75 /  20  10  20  10
Monticello AR     93  75  92  75 /  20  10  20  10
Mount Ida AR      90  72  89  72 /  20  10  20  10
Mountain Home AR  89  71  88  70 /  20  10  20  10
Newport AR        91  73  90  72 /  20  10  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     93  73  92  73 /  20  10  20  10
Russellville AR   91  73  91  73 /  20  10  20  10
Searcy AR         91  73  91  73 /  20  10  20  10
Stuttgart AR      93  74  91  74 /  20  10  20  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...51



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