Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 232331
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
631 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEARBY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT/NEARLY CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME E-SE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KT WED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE SHORT OF IT IS...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

GOING INTO A LITTLE MORE DETAIL...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 WILL BE A BIT COMPLEX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER
48...WITH A COUPLE DISTURBANCES LOCATED IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE
CAROLINAS. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...MODELS SHOW A STRONG AND DEEP
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDING
BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE. THIS RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY
BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES...RESULTING IN
A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH SEVERAL GYRES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. AS MENTIONED THOUGH...THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IF
ANY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME INFLUENCE ON THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...WITH WEAK EAST OR NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT
OVER THE COMING DAYS AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN DRY...MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A
TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO RIDE UP THE GULF INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST AS ITS CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER
FLOW. BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WITH
STILL SOME MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY ON POSITIONING DID NOT GO
TOO HIGH. TEMPS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT
KEPT THEM NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  80  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         54  84  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       48  78  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    53  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  54  82  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     55  85  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      50  81  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  79  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        50  80  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     54  82  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   50  81  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         52  81  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      52  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...28




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