Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 311747
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR EASTERN ZONES BY 19Z...MOST
LIKELY AT KPBI WERE TEMPO GROUP IN PLACE. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER
SUNSET. COULD SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AT PBI BEFORE NOON SAT...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY UNTIL JUST BEYOND TAF PERIOD. ATLANTIC
BREEZE SHOULD REACH ALL EASTERN TERMINALS BY 19Z...CALMING TONIGHT
THEN INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS BY MID-MRNG SAT. KAPF HAS EARLY
EVENING GULF BREEZE...WITH SE FLOW DOMINATING SATURDAY MRNG. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS AND VERY GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS PSBL IN/NEAR TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

UPDATE...
12Z RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALS VERY SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO YESTERDAY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MAIN THREAT ASIDE FROM THE USUAL LIGHTNING
TODAY. WEAK INVERSION SHOULD PRECLUDE STORM FORMATION UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...

PWATS EXPECTED TO RISE TODAY AS THE ENTIRE PATTERN DROOPS SOUTH.
AS RIDGE RETROGRADES JUST WEST OF THE TX PANHANDLE, AN OPENING
WILL EXIST FOR THE MID ATLANTIC TROUGH TO DEEPEN FURTHER INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. CURRENT ANALYZED RIBBON OF NEAR 2" PWATS ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WILL THUS SINK SOUTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY. QUESTION WILL
BE HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE MOST NUMEROUS ACTIVITY REACH. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY LIMITING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION, SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TODAY ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST, WHICH MAY FOCUS MORE
STORMS JUST INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST. H5 TEMPS AND H7-H5 LAPSE
RATE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. WITH MORE FORCING PROVIDED BY
THE SHRTWV AND DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY, THERE COULD BE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF.
AWAY FROM THE MIDLEVEL WAVE, WEAK MBE VELOCITIES AND SLOW STORM
MOTION COULD LEAD TO BACKBUILDING AND/OR SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THROUGH GULF MOVES SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO
THIS WEEKEND, THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO MOVE NORTH, WITH
SURFACE FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL FOCUS MORE ACTIVITY INTO THE INTERIOR, WITH MORE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
ONSHORE FLOW. CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THANKS TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION, H5 TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM AND H7-H5 LAPSE RATES MAY AGAIN FALL BELOW
6C/KM. PWATS WILL DROP A BIT TOO AS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ARRIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE GULF, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE COMPONENT BY SATURDAY, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST, WHICH IS IMPORTANT TO
NOTE SINCE WE`VE HAD SEVERAL DAYS OF ONLY SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...

A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST TO EVENTUALLY EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL
RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL AGAIN DEPART
TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL JOIN FORCES. UNDER THE RIDGE, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST, WITH LESS ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF MAINLY SOME
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST,
ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS.

MARINE...

SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE NUMEROUS IN THE WATERS OFFSHORE PALM
BEACH COUNTY TODAY, AS ACTIVITY MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA, AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG EXTREME SOUTH
FLORIDA, WILL BOTH DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
THE SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY. AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME RETURNS BY NEXT
WEEK. ONCE THIS OCCURS, EXPECT LATE NIGHT AND MORNING ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, AND AFTERNOON STORMS OVER THE GULF
WATERS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  90  77  89 /  30  50  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  89  79  90 /  30  40  20  40
MIAMI            80  90  79  90 /  20  40  20  40
NAPLES           79  91  77  90 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...23/SK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.