Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 201946
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
346 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA AT THIS TIME WITH BLENDED SSMI/AMSU/GPSMET WATER VAPOR
PRODUCT SHOWING PWAT VALUES AROUND NORMAL. THIS COMBINED WITH SEA
BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND THERMODYNAMIC INDICES BETTER THAN LAST
FEW DAYS HAVE RESULTED IN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
MIAMI DADE AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR AND PORTIONS OF
THE WEST COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

LIDAR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER PAST FEW DAYS
HAS CONTINUED TO ERODE CONFINED NOW CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS WILL
BE GRADUALLY LESS HAZY SKIES OVER THE NEAR FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OF
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTH AS A STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE SE. WITH THAT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FAVORING INLAND AND WEST COAST RAIN CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST
TOMORROW THAN FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AS MUCH AS 20-30% BELOW NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MOVES INTO THE AREA AS RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY PATTERN FAVORING INLAND AND WEST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ALL
EYES ARE IN THE TROPICS. AT THIS TIME THE UNCERTAINTY IS JUST TOO
LARGE. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN TERMS OF DEGREE OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT, WHERE IT WILL GO AND TIMING. SO AT THIS TIME
SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS ARE JUST ADVISED TO STAY TUNED OVER THE
WEEKEND. NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN CHECKING
OUR PREPAREDNESS PLANS. AFTER ALL, WE ARE HEADING INTO THE PEAK OF
THE HURRICANE SEASON.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  79  90 /  10  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  92  83  91 /  10  30  10  20
MIAMI            80  92  80  91 /  10  40  10  20
NAPLES           78  95  77  94 /  20  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....52/PS


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