Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 021953
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
353 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH A RATHER WEAK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. LATEST HRRR AGREES BY
PUSHING MOST OF THE LATER CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAIN THREATS
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

UPPER RIDGING IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS AND
STEERING FLOW GENERALLY LIGHT WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION REMAINING MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS A BROAD H5 TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL USHER IN A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
MODELS ALSO HINT AT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN DECREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE EARLY TO MID WEEK TIME FRAME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR KEEPS
ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...SOME POSSIBLY AFFECTING KAPF.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS ACROSS ALL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  92  77  92 /  20  30  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  78  92 /  20  30  30  60
MIAMI            78  92  78  93 /  20  30  30  60
NAPLES           78  90  78  90 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD



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