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000
FXUS62 KMFL 101457
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
957 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...
MODELS HAVE BACKED OF ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HRRR
DOES KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS ALSO SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA, MAINLY SOUTH OF I75. THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY, AS WELL AS
THE NAM. SO, HAVE SCALED BACK POPS SOME, BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

.AVIATION...12Z

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD
WITH SE WIND OF 10 KTS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. EXCEPTION WILL BE
NAPLES...WHICH WILL HAVE A SW GULF BREEZE FROM AROUND 18-0Z...THEN
WINDS TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY IN DIRECTION. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
ONSHORE FROM ATLANTIC WATERS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INSERT VCSH WITH
THIS PACKAGE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTED OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48. THE EXCEPTION WAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST
EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...KEEPING DRY AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WAS PROVIDING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE
COAST OF MAINE...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. NO SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WHICH IS A A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD
HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ALSO BE NEAR RECORD HIGH MINS EACH
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO THE REGION
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN BEGIN TO WASH
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL RELAX AND BACK MORE TO THE EAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF STREAMER SHOWERS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SOUTH OF
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
THEN FORECAST TO GET SHOVED SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST AREAS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE NEAR THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER WEAK...AND MAY STALL OVER THE
REGION OR IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS WITH THE FRONT...AND THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR THE REGION AND DISSIPATING. WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE
FRONT IN THE ECMWF...IT HAS LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PROBS ARE LOW
AND VCSH LEFT OUT OF 6Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SE
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 KTS TUESDAY. GULF BREEZE SHOULD
TRANSITION WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT NAPLES TO WSW.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALL OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND ALL BUT DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND PUSH THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THIS WILL BRING A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BACK TO THE
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  83  69 / 10 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  82  73 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI            85  73  83  72 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES           86  66  85  67 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...13/SI
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK