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000
FXUS62 KMFL 240025 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
825 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES OVER
EASTERN COLLIER COUNTY AND OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY TO SETTLE TO THE GROUND LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY SMOKE TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR
COLLIER...SOUTHERN HENDRY...FAR WESTERN BROWARD...AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT...DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE LIGHT WINDS. SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THESE
AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF
SITES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES AND BECOME WESTERLY OVER KAPF TAF SITE...DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT
THE US FOR THIS COMING WEEK. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND DRIER AIR. FOR TODAY, DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN NOW
AND THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE DEWPOINT WILL INCREASE FROM THE LOW 60S TO THE UPPER 60S BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN NOW AND WEEKEND. SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN AN
AREA OF WEAK FORCING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE MAIN CHANGES, WITH WETTER
CONDITIONS, ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
AS A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ENHANCE
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE LEVELS. RIGHT NOW A POP OF 30
PERCENT IN INCLUDED FOR WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK AS THE
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL COMING FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES BIT MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY. THEREFORE,
DOWNGRADED THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM MODERATE TO SLIGHT FOR
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES.

AVIATION...(ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014)

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO GO SE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL PENETRATE. CURRENTLY, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE
WIND DIRECTION HIGHLY VARIABLE, DEPENDING AS TO WHERE THE TAF SITE
IS IN RELATION TO THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TONIGHT, THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.

MARINE...

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT LATER TODAY ALLOWING
SEAS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS
BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THRESHOLD BETWEEN NOW AND
THE WEEKEND FOR THE AREA NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN RH IS FORECAST BETWEEN THE WEEKEND AND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  66  84  71  86 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  85  74  87 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            67  87  73  87 /   0   0  10  20
NAPLES           64  84  66  84 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....71/JE