741
FXUS62 KMFL 111853
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
253 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Models show a trough/low complex migrating east over the E CONUS,
and sending an associated decaying cold front across the Florida
peninsula. Meanwhile, 850-700 mb layer analyses still depict a
rather dry layer of air persisting over the area. Even with the
enhanced moisture accompanying the front, it may not be enough
for significant deep convection to develop. Therefore, shower and
thunderstorm chances are expected to remain limited, with better
chances north of I-75. Latest model solutions show fair agreement
in stalling the boundary just south of the area on Sunday.

Winds shift more westerly ahead of the front which keeps the
ongoing warm trend. Expect widespread low-mid 90s this afternoon,
with sea breezes maybe keeping immediate coastal areas a tad
cooler. For Sunday, increasing cloud cover and northerly cooler
flow should help in knocking down afternoon highs a few degrees.
Widespread triple digit heat index values are still expected
today with mid to upper 90s on Sunday except for Miami- Dade
County where the triple digit heat index values will return for
another day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Mid-lvl ridging will rebuild northward into SFL Monday/Tuesday,
then briefly flatten mid-week as a shortwave passes to our north,
and then finally build northward again in the late week period. At
the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will support
generally weak southerly flow over the area Monday/Tuesday (with
the weekend cold front lifting north as a warm front in that
timeframe). The low-lvl flow then veers more southwesterly mid-
week as an area of low pressure moves into the SE US. The
system`s cold front looks to stall well north of the area,
maintaining the warm prefrontal regime through the end of the
week.

The main story in terms of sensible weather will be a return to
near-record temperatures by the mid-week period (Wed/Thu) with
widespread highs in the mid 90s (apart from the immediate coast)
with some upper 90s possible over the Interior. Peak heat indices
will likely be even a touch higher than observed in the previous
week`s stretch of heat, with values at or even over 105 degrees
possible Wed/Thu. Given we are still 5 days out, there still
remains uncertainty on the degree of mixing (and thus dewpoint
values), but even a heat advisory couldn`t be ruled out for
portions of the east coast in the mid-week period. It will
certainly feel a lot more like July/August than mid May.

Given mid-lvl dry air and general synoptic subsidence, rain
chances will only be in the 15-30% range through Tuesday with any
activity primarily limited to the sea breezes over the Interior.
There may be some increase in storm chances over northern areas
Wed/Thu as the front stalls to our north and associated
MCSs/convectively enhanced shortwaves track near the area,
although the building ridge may then usher a return to drier
conditions late week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Some MVFR/VFR periods are possible with showers or even a few thunderstorms
in the vicinity of the terminals, mainly over the Atlantic coast. WSW
winds around 12 kts with gusts in the 20kts range will continue
through around 00Z then should continue to veer northward later
tonight in the wake of a frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Winds will shift from WSW this afternoon to northerly overnight
and into Sunday morning as a decaying cold front moves across the
waters. There`s a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening with the front. There might be enough
lingering moisture for additional showers to develop on Sunday,
mainly over the Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

The risk for rip currents will increase early next week as winds
gradually shift back to the ENE along the Atlantic beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

A relatively dry air mass will remain in place over the next few
days, with minimum relative humidity values around 35 to 40 percent
over the interior portions of South Florida. This combined with the
lack of recent wetting rainfall could lead to enhanced fire weather
conditions even with winds forecasted to remain below critical
thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  91  77  89 /   0  20   0  20
West Kendall     72  93  74  91 /   0  20   0  10
Opa-Locka        74  92  76  91 /   0  20   0  20
Homestead        74  90  77  89 /   0  20  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  75  88  77  87 /  10  20  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  74  89  77  88 /  10  20  10  20
Pembroke Pines   75  93  77  91 /   0  20   0  20
West Palm Beach  73  87  74  88 /  10  20   0  30
Boca Raton       74  88  77  89 /  10  20  10  30
Naples           73  90  74  92 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...AR