Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 241412
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
912 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
VERY HUMID AND SUMMER-LIKE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS STILL SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. THESE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BURN OFF BUT IT MAY TAKE
MOST OF THE MORNING TO DO SO. DESPITE THIS LOW LEVEL WARMTH/MOISTURE,
MID LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE DRY. THEREFORE, RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST. ONLY CHANGE OF NOTE TO TODAY`S FORECAST IS TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AREA AND NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE ANY
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE NAPLES
AREA. RAIN CHANCES START TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS HIGHER MOISTURE
FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SURGES INTO THE AREA AND THE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GULF. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE 150 TO 170 DIRECTION TODAY AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE WEATHER
WILL ALSO BE DRY TODAY AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

THE IFR CONDITIONS THAT BEEN OCCURRING AT THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ENDED AS THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BURNED
OFF. THEREFORE...THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IN VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. THE IFR CONDITIONS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO COME UP TO VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS
SLOWLY BURNING OFF THIS MORNING. SO HAVE SHOWN A SLOW INCREASE IN
CEILING DESK FROM IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...

DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TODAY,
THEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON (A FEW RECORDS COULD BE
BROKEN ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THIS TIME FOR TODAY). IN ADDITION TO THE
WARM TEMPERATURES, PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S
WILL SUPPORT THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DECK/PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND GULF LOCATIONS EACH NIGHT. THE EARLY MORNING IR2
IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED AN AREA OF FOG FILLING IN FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS FORT MYERS AND INTO GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES (VSBYS
AROUND 2 SM AT FMY). ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS DIPPING BELOW A MILE CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SHOWED THE BEST CHANCE OF VSBYS DIPPING
BELOW A MILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER AND WESTERN HENDRY/GLADES
THROUGH DAYBREAK TODAY, THEN MUCH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA INTERIOR AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INDICATES LARGE SCALE UPPER HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD AND THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA BY THE END OF THE SHORT-
TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TUESDAY WITH A PRONOUNCED WIND FIELD EVOLVING. THIS LOW IS
PROGGED TO RACE NEWD TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.
THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE REALIZED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE GULF AND NWRN INTERIOR AREAS. STRONG NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
DRY AIR WILL BEGIN FILLING IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

/85

LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING-WEEKEND)

RISING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE EXPECTED AS THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY TO START THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS TO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO/COASTAL
AREAS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD THURSDAY. THE DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A GRADUAL MOISTENING AND
WARMING TREND WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OFF OF THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.

/85

AVIATION...

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KPBI EARLY THIS MORNING...SO ADDED
VCSH FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF. SATELLITE STILL SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS WERE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS ALSO SHOWING LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
NEAR KAPF AND THE LAKE REGION...AND THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
COVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY THE MORNING. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE
TAF SITES IS HOW LOW CIGS GET AND THE DURATION OF THE LOW CIGS.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND CONTINUING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. DUE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND THE TEMPERATURE SPREAD AT KPBI AND
KFLL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC AS GUIDANCE INDICATED...AND KEPT
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES NEAR DAYBREAK. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
BY MID DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RELAX NEAR DAYBREAK AND THEN SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

/84

MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
MARINE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS WILL BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY, WHICH WILL
REQUIRE AN ADVISORY FOR THE THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  73  82  72 /  20  30  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  75  83  74 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            86  74  84  73 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           82  71  82  69 /  20  30  50  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM



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