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000
FXUS62 KMFL 051439
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
BENIGN WEATHER TODAY...EXCEPT FOR REMOTE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. NO CHANGES IN OVERALL
FORECAST THINKING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH TERMINAL KAPF IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SOUTHWESTERLY SEA BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NE-SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
RIDGING ORIENTED FROM NE-SW FROM THE WESTERN ATL TO THE SWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER MOISTURE SPILLS NEWD BETWEEN THESE
TWO UPPER FEATURES WNW OF THE LOCAL AREA, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES
LOCALLY TODAY. THE LATEST HIRES MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER...DOES
INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AS A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PENETRATES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED OVER THE SERN STATES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN STALL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE RETURNS NORTHWARD AND UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY
PATTERN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH TEMPS REMAINING 5-10 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES.


MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE
AREAS TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH AND GULF
WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  70  84  72 /  10  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  71  82  69 /  10  10  20  30
MIAMI            85  70  84  69 /  10  10  20  20
NAPLES           84  67  82  64 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK