Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 051326
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
926 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY AS STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS FROM THE ATLANTIC.
THIS IS LIKELY REFLECTED IN NOTICEABLE CAP AT 850 MB IN BOTH
MIAMI AND KEY WEST SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING, AS WELL AS PERSISTENT
HAZE FROM SAHARAN AIR LAYER. THE CAP IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT AS
YOU GO NORTH, AS ILLUSTRATED BY THE TAMPA AREA SOUNDING. OVERALL
EFFECT OF ALL THIS ON TODAY`S WEATHER IS FOR A SLIGHTLY LATER
START TO CONVECTION AND A GENERAL, SLOW NW-N MOVEMENT FOCUSING IN
AREAS AROUND, SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A FEW STRONG
STORMS (STRONG WIND GUSTS/SMALL HAIL) ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C AND CAPE VALUES
SHOULD BE AROUND 3000 J/KG. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
THE ATLANTIC COULD APPROACH COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS
MORNING, BUT MODEL CONSENSUS AND OVERALL PATTERN INDICATES THAT
EAST COAST METRO AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AS BULK
OF CONVECTION FOCUSES OVER THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD BE HOTTER TODAY, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SECTIONS, WITH MID 90S
IN THE EVERGLADES AND PERHAPS INTO PARTS OF GREATER NAPLES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 102-105F
RANGE. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, EXCEPT A GULF SEA BREEZE AT
KAPF STARTING AROUND 17Z. AIR MASS IS SLIGHTLY DRIER TODAY THAN
PAST TWO DAYS, WHICH MEANS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR EAST
COAST TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z/19Z. SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING UP
IN THE INTERIOR AROUND 16Z/17Z AND MOVE NW, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
KAPF AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NAVY AEROSOL MODEL STILL DEPICTS A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST PUSHING
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. EVIDENCE OF THIS DUST IS ALSO SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WHICH SUGGEST PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY. AS A
RESULT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER HAZY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH MORE LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME RATHER STRONG DUE
TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH ARE INDICATIVE OF A SAL
EVENT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP STRONG WORDING IN THE HWO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME FRAME STEERING FLOW SHOULD STILL
REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK TUTT-LIKE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS
LOW SEEMS TO BE DEPICTED WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN SO ITS AFFECT ON THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MINIMAL...PROVIDING ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS IT SWINGS BY UNDERNEATH THE PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGING IN PLACE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE THEN CONSISTENT IN SLIDING THE UPPER
RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST AND CENTERING IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COASTAL STATES FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD ALLOW MID-
LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE.

MARINE... MAINLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE ONLY THREATS BEING LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  80  91  80 /  20  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  81  91  80 /  10  20  20  10
MIAMI            91  80  91  79 /  10  20  30  10
NAPLES           92  77  92  76 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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