Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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273
FXUS62 KMFL 111616
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1116 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE MORNING
MIAMI SOUNDING REGISTERED PW AT ONLY 0.29 INCHES ALONG WITH A
FORMIDABLE CAP. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO CHILLY LEVELS...BUT 5-10F DEGREES ABOVE
THIS MORNING`S LOWS. THE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS BELOW FOR
FORECAST DETAILS BEYOND TODAY. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME N-NW NEAR 10 KNOTS AROUND
14Z AND N-NE AFTER 17Z. EXCEPTION IS NAPLES/KAPF WHICH WILL HAVE A
NE WIND MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE KICKING IN
FROM 20Z-00Z. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING DRY
CONDITIONS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...DESPITE SOME WARMING. A
COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY WILL REINFORCE THE COOL DRY WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 5 KT DRAINAGE FLOW OCCURRING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE FALLEN AS LOW AS ANTICIPATED...AS 8Z
READING ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH NEAR 50F ACROSS THE MIAMI AND
FORT LAUDERDALE METROPOLITAN AREAS. STILL CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED
FROST OVER HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER THE COOL START...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE LEADING TO
AMPLE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
AFTERNOON. A MODEST WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM...WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAXIMA REACHING
70S...AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINIMA REMAINING IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE EXTENDED BOUT OF COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE STATE WILL
FLATTEN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CURB
WARMING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT...EASTERLY FLOW
SHOULD TAKE HOLD AND A MOISTURE RETURN ENSUES. MINIMA SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL LIKELY NOT FALL BELOW 60F ACROSS THE EASTERN URBAN AREAS. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW
PUMPS MOIST LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE INTO THE REGION.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE
SURFACE LOPRES WILL MOVE FROM ALABAMA INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING
THIS TIME. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THERE LOOKS LIKE A
NON-ZERO RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS MON NGT/TUE...BUT THUNDER
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE INTO FCST ATTM. TUESDAY MAY
BE WARMEST DAY IN QUITE A WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH
MAXIMA WILL BARELY REACH AVERAGE FOR MID-FEBRUARY. THEN...COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME N-NW NEAR 10 KNOTS AROUND 14Z AND
N-NE AFTER 17Z. EXCEPTION IS NAPLES/KAPF WHICH WILL HAVE A NE
WIND MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH PERHAPS A WEAK SEA BREEZE AFTER 20Z.

MOLLEDA

MARINE...
HAVE LET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DROP AS SEAS CONTINUE TO DECLINE IN
ATLANTIC. STILL...4 TO 6 FEET SEAS LIKELY IN GULF STREAM INTO THIS
EVENING. THEREAFTER...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT MAY AGAIN INCREASE WINDS AND POSSIBLY
SEAS TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA /NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY/ ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW
35 PERCENT FOR 3 TO 5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...MAINLY FOR AREAS TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND OF
SLIGHTLY LESS DURATION...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW ERC VALUES...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MORE MOIST CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  66  49  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  57  76  58 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            67  57  76  60 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           68  46  73  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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