Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 260547
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1247 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT ARRIVING TOMORROW MORNING, WILL PRODUCE SOME 30 KT
GUSTS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH RAIN TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS. MAIN FORECAST QUESTION WILL BE MVFR CIGS NEAR THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SREF PROBS GO ABOUT 50 PERCENT FOR MVFR CIGS FROM 15Z-18Z
THROUGH THE REGION. LAMP GUIDANCE IS DECIDEDLY AGAINST WITH 5KFT
CIGS. LLVLS ARE VERY DRY AND THIS WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD MVFR, ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY BY
LATE AFTERNOON, AND ALTHOUGH GUSTS BACK DOWN, 10-15KT SUSTAINED
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT
SHRA OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS LOOK TO GUSTY TO BETWEEN 25
AND 30 KTS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TOMORROW OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTH WEST, AFTER 15Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO
BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE THE LAST
REASONABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRY
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS ALONG
COASTAL BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES BARELY TOUCHING 70
DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS IT
DOES...IT WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AREA WIDE FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS SURGE SHOULD PRODUCE MINIMUM WIND
CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS
GLADES...HENDRY...AND COLLIER COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BY THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME
TO RETURN RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR DEPICTION OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF DIGS AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND KEEPS THE UPPER ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH THUS STALLING
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE SAME
TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS AS HIGH AS 10-12 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS MONDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH GULF STREAM SEAS SUBSEQUENTLY REACHING
AROUND 7-9 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. WIND
AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  51  68  52 /  30   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  52  69  54 /  20   0   0   0
MIAMI            74  53  70  55 /  20   0   0   0
NAPLES           70  55  67  54 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM



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