Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 221308
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
908 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT BY LATER THIS MORNING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT. MAIN HAZARD TODAY IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THOUGH IT SHOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...A FEW SPOTS MAY RECEIVE HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LEADING TO URBAN FLOODING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS
COMBINED WITH A DEEP MOISTURE-RICH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSRAS AFFECTING MAINLY THE EAST COAST
SITES. COVERED WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW AND WILL AMEND THROUGH THE
DAY AS NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS DECLARED LAST NIGHT
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT. PWATS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE AROUND 1
INCH AROUND TAMPA AND 1.8 INCHES AT NAPLES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD
COVER ONCE AGAIN.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AND COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LAKE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND PICK UP A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TD 9. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS IF THIS
SCENARIO PANS OUT.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END OF
THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON IN THIS
REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOUTH FLORIDA
MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE WET WEATHER COULD
BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  73  81  73 /  60  50  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  81  75 /  60  60  60  50
MIAMI            83  73  82  73 /  70  60  70  70
NAPLES           84  71  85  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....84/AK



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