Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 181451
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1051 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR CHANGES...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES TO A HIGH RISK TODAY BASED
ON THE LATEST CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS
FRONT EXTENDING SSW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF MOBILE/FL
PANHANDLE AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY...WHICH
COULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR REGARDING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
REFLECTS THIS AND GENERALLY DOESN`T INDICATE MUCH DEVELOPING
...EVEN ALONG THE MAIN SQUALL LINE LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST WRF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FROM MID/LATE THIS
EVENING (NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION) THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY
MORNING (EAST COAST AREAS 2AM - DAYBREAK). DESPITE THE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE REMAINS A NON-
ZERO THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THINGS EVOLVE TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST FROM THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND MID LEVEL AND CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF FROM THE CONVECTION WILL KEEP BKN/OVC CIGS FROM
10-25KFT. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AFTER
14-15Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM...AND
THIS AFFECTS THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
TO BEGIN AFFECTING KAPF WILL BE BETWEEN 02-04Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

.STRONG TO EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
.DRIER EASTER WEEKEND IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EASTER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT DRIER
COMPARED TO THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

A SQUALL LINE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE
COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO. SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PACKAGE.

EASTER WEEKEND...
THE WEATHER WILL BE IMPROVING ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BEFORE GOING DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTER SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SWINGING FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS
MORNING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE GOING TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 1O TO 15
KNOTS TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

THE SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS IS SUBSIDING EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF STREAM SEAS IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO BE AROUND 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 6
FEET BY TONIGHT. THE SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 6 FEET BY LATE THIS EASTER WEEKEND. FOR
THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FEET THIS EASTER WEEKEND.
SO WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND PUT UP A
SCEC...WHILE THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM SEAS REMAIN IN
SCEC CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  64 /  30  50  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  76  87  66 /  20  50  30  10
MIAMI            85  75  87  67 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           86  70  80  63 /  30  50  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB


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