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000
FXUS62 KMFL 181838
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
238 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

...STORMIER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING ABOUT
AS EXPECTED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZES AND
MOVING LITTLE. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE CONVECTION
STRENGTHENING AND CONSOLIDATING OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE PENINSULA
MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, WITH METRO AREAS ALONG BOTH COASTS MOSTLY DRY. SOME OF
THE CONVECTION COULD WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL CONSIST OF A LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
ATLANTIC WITH E/SE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS, AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC,
INCLUDING FLORIDA. FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, LITTLE CHANGE FROM
TODAY`S PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH NIGHT/MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND SCT TSTMS INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, TRENDS POINT TOWARD AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AND WET/STORMY PATTERN AS THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
MOISTENS UP AND A 500 MB LOW DROPS DOWN OVER FLORIDA. THE
COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVELS AND COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS (WITH A
POSSIBLE BOOST FROM A 50-60 KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO) WILL LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS, INCLUDING
NIGHT/MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND OVER BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS. AS A RESULT, RAISED POPS INTO THE 30/40 RANGE ALL AREAS AND
THESE MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED FURTHER IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF
TRENDS CONTINUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW COLD MID-LEVELS ON MONDAY
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C, SO THERE`S CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERHAPS TUESDAY AS
WELL.

FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS KEEP THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER FLORIDA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN TEMPORARILY LIFT THE
LOW NORTH ON FLORIDA ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE,
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK LOW OVER SW FLORIDA THURSDAY MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE DETAILS OF THESE
FEATURES AND THEIR EFFECTS ON OUR WEATHER ARE STILL A LITTLE
UNCLEAR, BUT IT APPEARS AS IF A GENERALLY UNSTABLE PATTERN MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE UPCOMING WEEK WITH AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WEST AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
INLAND. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF KAPF.
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO REMAIN MOSTLY INLAND OF THE
TAF SITES...SO ONLY MENTIONED VCSH IN THE EAST COAST TAF SITES.
MOSTLY SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 3-6 KFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SE WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND TO AROUND 5
KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS SUNDAY AFTER 14-15Z. FOR KAPF...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST. THE
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WILL REDEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. STORM FOCUS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE FARTHER WEST/INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY GOOD
BOATING CONDITIONS (OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT) WITH ONLY A SMALL NORTHEAST
SWELL OFF THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. SOME PATCHY FOG ISN`T OUT OF THE
QUESTION OVER THE INTERIOR THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  86  74  86 / 20 20 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  86  75  88 / 20 20 20 30
MIAMI            76  87  75  87 / 20 20 20 30
NAPLES           72  89  71  88 / 20 30 30 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...84/AK