Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 141419
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
919 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.UPDATE...
After a chilly morning across South Florida, clear and sunny skies
today with highs around 70 degrees. Winds will be light and
variable. Tonight temperatures will be a little warmer with temps
in the low to mid 50s across the region. No major changes in the
current forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017/

AVIATION...
High pressure is forecast to keep VFR conditions across South
Florida through the TAF period. The wind across the are will be on
the light side, possible picking up later in the day due to a
weak sea breeze, but still only around 5 kts. The wind is forecast
go become light and variable once again this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Latest WPC surface analysis shows a 1019 mb broad high over the
Gulf, extending eastward across the Florida peninsula. This
feature has allowed for mostly clear skies, dry atmospheric
conditions, and light winds. These ingredients typically lead to
chilly weather across our CWA, at least by Florida standards.
Minimum temperatures are on track to drop into the upper 30s near
Lake Okeechobee, 40s inland/Gulf coast, and near 50 for the east
coast metro. Isolated frost is possible for those areas that drop
into the upper 30s, especially in portions of Glades and Hendry
counties. Mostly clear skies will prevail through this afternoon
with maximum temperatures generally around 70 degrees. For Friday,
little change in the synoptics will once again lead to benign
weather with light winds, dry conditions, and maximum temperatures
rising into the mid 70s.

This weekend through early next week: By Saturday, mid range
models prog upper level ridging to slide eastward and build over
the southeast CONUS. Surface high pressure strengthening to the
north of our region will act to veer flow out of the east or
southeast, leading to a gradual increase in low level moisture.
Rising 500 mb heights aloft will generate a warming trend through
early next week. Maximum temperatures are forecast to generally
reach near 80 on Saturday, low 80s Sunday, and even reach the low
to mid 80s on Monday and Tuesday. With lack of any significant
weather disturbances passing by, expect little to no chance of
precipitation through the extended.

MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build across South
Florida the next few days, leading to light and somewhat
variable winds. A weak frontal passage on Saturday will bring
stronger northeasterly flow around 15 knots, veering easterly on
Sunday. No significant rain chances through the period.

FIRE WEATHER...
Stagnant high pressure over the region will continue
to build during the next several days, leading to dry weather and
light winds. Thus, expect poor dispersions over a majority of South
Florida this afternoon and again Thursday afternoon. Developing
southeast flow this weekend will bring a slight increase in low level
moisture, keeping RHs above critical values. No appreciable rain
chances are expected through the period.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  70  51  74  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  70  56  75  62 /   0   0   0   0
Miami            70  55  76  62 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           70  54  75  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...33/Kelly
DISCUSSION...27/JT
MARINE...27/JT
AVIATION...13

FIRE WEATHER...27/JT




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