Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 251350 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
950 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

High pressure over the Southeastern United States will continue to
remain nearly stationary today keeping east northeast wind flow in
place. MIA sounding this morning was only 0.76 inches which is
well below the normal level of 1.45 inches for this time of year.
Therefore, the weather will remain dry over South Florida along
with breezy conditions along the east coast beaches. This will
also allow for a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents along the east
coast beaches of South Florida today.

The northeast to east winds over the South Florida waters will
also be on an increase today from 10 to 15 knots this morning to
15 to 20 knots this afternoon into this evening. The winds will
continue to increase to at least 20 knots late tonight over South
Florida waters. Therefore, the Atlantic seas will be on an
increase from 2 to 4 feet this morning to 4 TO 6 feet by tonight,
While the Gulf Seas increase from 2 feet to 3 to 5 feet offshore
by tonight. Therefore, SCEC will be in place for all of South
Florida waters today with an SCA for the Atlantic and Gulf waters

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 720 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016/

The winds will be east/northeast 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
25 knots today over the east coast taf sites, except KAPF taf site
where the wind speeds will be around 15 knots. The weather will
remain dry with VFR conditions for the ceiling and vis at all of
the taf sites today.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 455 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016/

A ridge of high pressure over the southeast CONUS will act to
increase northeast winds across our region by mid week, gradually
shifting to a more easterly direction. Deeper lower level moisture
advected in from the Atlantic will increase cloud cover and shower
activity as well. The highest coverage of scattered showers should
affect portions of the Atlantic coastal waters and east coast
metro through this weekend.

Latest IR satellite loop displays lower level strato-
cumulus clouds pushing westward across South Florida from the
Atlantic and scattered cirrus pushing east from the Gulf. The 00Z
MFL sounding indicated very dry air in the mid levels and a PW value
of only 0.83", well below average for this time of year. Northeast
winds, 10-20 KT were observed from near the surface up through 400
mb. As high pressure aloft builds over the southeast CONUS today,
northeast winds will increase and may gust to 15 to 20 mph by early
this afternoon, most pronounced along coastal sections of the east
coast metro. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80s today,
a few degrees below normal for this time of year. By tomorrow, both
the GFS and ECMWF push the aforementioned high pressure cell further
east. This will help to enhance easterly flow across our region,
with strongest winds surfacing during the afternoon. Low and mid
level moisture advection from the Atlantic will also be on the
increase. This will lead to the development of showers, mainly
affecting the eastern Peninsula from Wednesday afternoon though the
weekend. Have maintained a slight chance of thunder over portions of
the southern peninsula Thursday and Friday, with forecast CAPE
values rising to 500-1000 J/KG.

This weekend, the GFS continues to push the stream of enhanced
moisture over the region, while the ECMWF drops this moisture band a
few hundred miles to the south. For now, have kept kept a slight
chance of showers in the forecast, mainly affecting the east coast
metro region. Thunder does not appear likely, as highest intability
parameters remain well to the south. High pressure ridging to the
north of the region will maintain the east northeast flow pattern
across South Florida. Long range models advect drier into the region
by early next week, along with dwindling precipitation chances.

Winds are expected increase to 20-25 KT tonight and shift to a
more east- northeast direction. This will cause seas to build to
between 6 to 9 feet over the Atlantic waters, highest along the
Gulf Stream. Conditions will remain hazardous for small craft through
at least Friday evening. See MIAMWWMFL for details.

Rip currents along the Atlantic coast will be moderate today, due
to an increase in east northeast winds. Stronger winds over the
coastal waters, as well as higher waves, may lead to a high
chances of rip currents through the end of the week.

Winds have subsided through the overnight hours, but should resume
from the NE through the morning hours. A shift to a more ENE flow
with increasing speeds to around 15 kt and higher gusts is
expected for this afternoon. Periods of CIGS of BKN050-060 are
again possible today, but air mass seems stable enough to keep
mention of showers out of the TAFS. In general, VFR should prevail
today with only highlight being the stronger NE-ENE winds in the

West Palm Beach  83  72  84  78 /  10  10  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  83  74  84  76 /  10  10  20  40
Miami            83  72  84  75 /  10  10  20  40
Naples           84  67  87  69 /  10   0  10  10


AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ630-651-671.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for GMZ676.


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