Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 301803
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
203 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS, THOUGH A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
MVFR-IFR AT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOVEMENT POSSIBLY
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS. HOWEVER, A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NAPLES
AREA SO HAVE VCTS AT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH TRENDS AS
BRIEF MVFR/IFR WOULD BE POSSIBLE THERE SHOULD A TSTORM AFFECT THE
TERMINAL. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT
FLOW AM EXPECTING MOST SHOWERS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST.
/GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

UPDATE...

THE COMBINATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC CENTERED AROUND 40 DEGREES LATITUDE CONTINUES TO GENERATE
EASTERLY WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM THIS
MORNING INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
MOISTENING UP WITH THE PW INCREASING TO 1.47 IN. AT THE SAME TIME
THAN THE LOW LEVELS ARE MOISTENING UP THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
HAVE DECREASED A BIT SINCE YESTERDAY, WITH THE SUBSIDENCE
SIGNATURE LESS EVIDENT THAN YESTERDAY. NO WELL-DEFINED AREAS OF
CONVERGENCE OR DIVERGENCE ARE PRESENT. WITH THE CURRENT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND THE CONTINUATION OF MOISTURE INCREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 45 MPH WAS INTRODUCED IN THE HWO AFTER ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z
SOUNDING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE PRESENT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOR THE INTERIOR AND PORTIONS OF
THE WEST COAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

AVIATION...

EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL
EAST COAST TAF SITES WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF
COASTAL AREAS WITH A GULF BREEZE EXPECTED TO AFFECT KAPF. AS
ALWAYS...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  87  75  88 /  20  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  87  76  88 /  20  30  10  20
MIAMI            75  87  75  88 /  10  30  10  30
NAPLES           72  88  73  88 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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