Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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FXUS66 KMFR 221511
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
811 AM PDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.UPDATE...Latest RADAR imagery shows rain falling along the coast
and in the Umpqua Basin, and a few showers elsewhere. The front
producing this rain is slowly pushing south, but will wash out and
dissipate as the day goes on. We do not expect many other areas to
see any significant rain today, and what is there will gradually
meet its demise along with the front. Winds also remain on the
gusty side east of the Cascades, so a wind advisory remains in
place there. Have made some adjustments to the forecast to account
for all of this and bring things more in line with observations,
as well as to add some patchy fog into the Rogue Valley, but
little other changes were needed.

For more information on this and the rest of the forecast, see the
previous discussion below. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z TAF Cycle...A mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibility continues into the morning in moist onshore flow ahead of
another front, and this general condition is expected to continue
through today (especially for areas west of the Cascades). South to
southwest winds will remain gusty through the morning at the coast,
over the higher terrain, and east of the Cascades, diminishing some
this afternoon. Mountain obscuration will continue to affect most of
the forecast area through Sunday.

We have introduced some lower visibility and ceilings this evening
for MFR based on the high soil moisture and increasing stability
leading to the chance for some fog/mist and IFR conditions. These
conditions will likely affect more valley locations later tonight
night. Sven

&&

.MARINE...Updated 730 AM PDT Sunday 22 October 2017...South winds
will gradually diminish as a front moves onshore today but seas will
remain steep to very steep through this afternoon as west swell
combines with short period wind waves. Behind the front, a thermal
trough will set up, and this will bring strong north winds and steep
seas south of Cape Blanco beginning Monday and continuing through
Thursday. Latest models suggest the strongest northerly winds will
occur on Wednesday afternoon. -CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 630 AM PDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Showers continue across our region with strong wind gusts still
being observed at higher elevations on the east side. The weather
system to our north and associated cold front are responsible and
will continue to impact the region throughout the day. Look for
the cold front to sag south a bit bringing strong low level flow
up against the Cascades and Coastal Range. As a result, the bulk
of rain will be along these topographical areas throughout the day
with the valleys seeing considerably less precipitation.
Eventually the cold front will deform and weaken as the system
heads eastward. The effect from that will be a lower chance of
precipitation into Sunday night.

The other thing worth talking about will be the potential for fog
in the valleys. The soundings are not a slam dunk for fog, but
thinking with all the added moisture in the soil and clear skies
will allow fog to form with enough clearing at night. At this
point fog is probable for the next few days, especially Monday
night.

Next week is looking pretty quiet with a short wave moving
through Washington state Wednesday. As for our area, the only
impact with be some clouds and perhaps light rain in the Umpqua
valley.

Temperatures for the week will be above average. Right now Tuesday
is looking like 10-15 degrees above normal. As for the rest of
the week, the forecast calls for temperatures roughly 10 degrees
above normal. Overall, it`s looking like a rather pleasant end to
October. - Smith

&&

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 330 AM PDT Sunday October 22
2017...Confidence is high for a stretch of dry weather starting
Monday and could last through next weekend. Guidance continues to
show a tight pressure gradient as a thermal trough develops along
the coast Monday night through Tuesday. This could result in
moderate northeast winds along with moderate overnight recoveries
near and at the ridges. Sven

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for ORZ030-031.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ350-356-376.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 5 PM this afternoon
     to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/CC/CZS/SBN


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