Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 231645 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1145 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. ONSHORE WINDS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 60S
DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL
BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. MAY SEE GROUND FOG IN LOW LYING
AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS...BUT TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN FOG FREE.

LAKE BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
EASTERN SITES...WITH SOUTH WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AT TAF SITES...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS WI TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW. 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 14-15C
AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
NEAR THE LAKE.  THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST TNT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS MOVES INTO WRN MN AND NW IA
BY 12Z WED. SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TNT JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MILDER TEMPS AND LIMIT THE FOG TO ONLY LOW LYING
AREAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TOWARDS FAR
WRN WI BY DAYS END. AREA OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AFFECTS LOCALES FROM EXTREME SW INTO
NC WI LARGELY BYPASSING THE CWA. MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS A
VRY DRY REGIME WITH LINGERING INFLUENCE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH. SURFACE/850 FLOW REMAINS ANTICYCLONIC. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTENING AOA 12K FEET WITH THE REST OF THE
COLUMN PARCHED. 850 LLJ REMAINS WEST AND THEN DIMINISHES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTH FROM SW WI. HOWEVER SURFACE/850 HIGHS SHOW EVEN
GREATER INFLUENCE WITH A WESTWARD PUSH. ECMWF SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP
IN WRN CWA THOUGH DRY AIRMASS..INFLUENCE OF LOWER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW GUID POPS SUGGEST KEEPING SPIRIT OF
GOING DRY FCST INTACT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
BROAD UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH ELONGATED RIDGING
BECOMING DOMINANT FEATURE. SURFACE RIDGING ALSO LOOKS TO KEEP
THINGS DRY THIS PERIOD. GFS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE ON RETURNING
THE UPPER LOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE TRENDS IN THE ECMWF KEEP
THE CIRCULATION FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING. EVEN WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE
PROGRESSION THE DRY LOW LEVELS AND THE PERSISTENT HOLD OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE DRY SCENARIO GOING.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LIGHT GROUND FOG WILL OCCUR INTERMITTENTLY
THROUGH SUNRISE AT KMSN AND POSSIBLY KUES...AS WELL AS IN LOW LYING
AREAS.  OTHERWISE MO CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY AND TNT. ANY GROUND FOG TNT WILL ONLY BE IN LOW LYING AREAS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GEHRING



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