Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMOB 121901
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
201 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...A DRIER SLUG OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FA IS LIMITING PRECIP ATTM. LOOKING AT THE GOES SOUNDER
PRECIP H20 SHOTS...HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
INLAND...TO THE NORTHWEST ATTM AS APPOSED TO THE WEST. A FEW LAST
MINUTE POP ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE PACKAGE ISSUANCE AS A
RESULT.

AM EXPECTING THE USUAL PATTERN OF THE ACTIVITY DYING OFF INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THEN REFOCUSING OFFSHORE
AS A LAND BREEZE SETS UP.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
COAST...HELPING WITH THE AFTERNOON PRECIP GENERATION AS THE GULF
BREEZE MOVES IN. WENT ABOVE THE DRY GFS SOLUTION AS A RESULT AND
TONED THE GFS TEMPS DOWNWARD DUE TO THE GREATER PRECIP AND DECREASED
AFTERNOON INSOLATION DUE TO THUNDERSTORM BLOW-OFF. /16

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW SWINGS OUT OF
CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING THE AXIS OF A
LONGWAVE TROF INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  AN ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE
LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MAINTAINS A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES INCREASING TO AROUND 2.0
INCHES BY TUESDAY.  EXPECT SEA BREEZE INITIATED CONVECTION EACH DAY
ALONG WITH COVERAGE INCREASING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  ANOTHER FEATURE WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION
IS A DEFORMATION ZONE SEEN IN 300 MB FLOW WITH THE AXIS OF
DILATATION EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
REGION.  THIS IS MORE APPARENT ON MONDAY AND IN THE ECMWF GUIDANCE
BUT IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO SEE IF THIS WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION SPECIFICALLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL CONTINUE FOR NOW
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  SURFACE BASED CAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG
ON MONDAY THEN AROUND 2500 J/KG ON TUESDAY.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS LOW SO AM EXPECTING A FEW STRONG STORMS EACH DAY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.  TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH MONDAY THEN ARE MODERATED
SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING
REBUILDS OVER THE GULF.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN RETURNS INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY.  THE FRONT DISSIPATES WHILE CONTINUING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
ON FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
BRINGS A RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TO THE
FORECAST AREA.  CHANCE DAYTIME POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH NIGHT.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES BY SATURDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS FIRING ALONG THE FL GULF
COAST ATTM. WESTWARD EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED BY A DRIER SLUG OF AIR
OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE FA. ANOTHER ROUND IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST SUNDAY...WITH THE GULF BREEZE THE EXPECTED INITIATOR.

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED LOW MVFR CIGS IN THE RAIN. /16

&&

.MARINE...AM EXPECTING A WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEX INTO SUNDAY...WITH A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW THERE
AFTER AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  91  73  92  74 /  20  30  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   73  90  76  92  76 /  20  30  20  30  20
DESTIN      78  89  78  90  78 /  20  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  93  70  94  72 /  20  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  70  93  69  94  70 /  10  30  10  30  30
CAMDEN      72  94  71  94  71 /  10  30  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   70  92  71  94  72 /  20  40  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.