Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 301406 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
906 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...BASED ON CONVECTION ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA AND MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING ABUNDANT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE BASED CAPES
OF AROUND 3000 J/KG...HAVE UPDATED WITH CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MADE OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO MENTION THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY THU FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES OF AL AND NWFL.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE DIGGING SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES TODAY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING DOWN FROM
THE ARLATX REGION THIS MORNING PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT OR FORCING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADING TO GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS LOCALLY ENHANCING THE COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS
LOCALLY FOR A FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING COMBINED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS RANGING FROM 6.8 TO 7.3 C/KM AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWFA BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
PLACES MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE
MAIN THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO A MORE SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. WITH THIS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV/ECS
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES MOSTLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN MOSTLY
TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV MOS DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...DUE TO CLOUDS AND BETTER RAIN
COVERAGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS
AND THE LOWER 90S GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WELL
INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS HIGH.

[WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...A MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEANWHILE SPAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES AND MLCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 1500-2000
J/KG. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO AID IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AMPLE
MLCAPE...A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION
TO NUMEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THE MAJORITY OF SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THAT OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WE WILL
AT LEAST CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND A LITTLE
WARMER WEDNESDAY...THOUGH STILL HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT IN
THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ON THE BASE OF THE
PERSISTENT TROUGH. WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKING TO BE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT ENHANCED WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MAY LIFT FURTHER NORTH OF OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE GULF ATTEMPTS TO BUILD FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. WHILE ISOLATED DAILY CONVECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY BECOME MORE LOCALIZED TO ALONG
THE SEABREEZE AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND A LITTLE WARMER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 NEAR THE COAST AND THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY RISE TO AROUND 100 LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
30.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH
01.12Z. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO BETTER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND SHEAR ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SW INCREASING TO 10 TO 13
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BECOMING SSW AT 4 TO 7 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...A BROAD UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH THE BETTER MID LEVEL
FORCING AND BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL IN THE 3 TO 4 FT
RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK SUBSIDING TO THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE LATER IN THE
WEEK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF
THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  90  74  92 /  60  30  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   89  76  89  77  91 /  50  30  40  20  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  78  90 /  50  40  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   90  71  91  72  93 /  70  40  40  20  40
WAYNESBORO  87  71  91  72  92 /  90  30  50  20  30
CAMDEN      88  71  91  72  91 /  80  40  40  20  40
CRESTVIEW   88  72  92  73  93 /  70  40  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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