Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 250914

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
414 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday night/...A weak shortwave moving over
the forecast area will bring some more high clouds again today, but
am not expecting anything else. An upper ridge over the plains
continues to shift east towards the Mississippi River, bringing a bit
more subsidence than yesterday. This will mean temps a bit higher
than yesterday, ranging from the low to mid 80s over the area(well
above seasonal). With records for both Mobile and Pensacola in the
upper 80s (see below), am not expecting records to be broken. With a
bit moister airmass than yesterday moving over the area from the
east, am still expecting low afternoon relative humidities today, but
not quite as low as yesterday.

Tonight, more shortwave energy moves through the upper ridge over
the plains, shifting the upper ridge eastward a bit, but more
importantly, it shifts a surface ridge to the eastern seaboard,
bringing a more organized east to southeasterly flow to the area.
This will bring more moisture into the area. With the increasing
moisture levels helping to limit overnight cooling, overnight lows
tonight will return to above seasonal levels. Lows tonight in the
low to mid 50s expected, upper 50s to low 60s along the coast.

City      Record High     Date   Today`s Forecast
Mobile      87            1941         83
Pensacola   89            1941         82


.SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...By Wednesday the
upper level ridge has flattened with an axis extending west to east
across the Northern Gulf. Upstream...a shortwave trough approaches
from the west. As the trough approaches Wednesday night and moves
across the forecast area Thursday...strongest dynamics are sheared
north and south of the area. Albeit enough forcing with this
shortwave to produce some spotty shower activity especially if timing
coincides with peak heating Thursday. Best chance of MOB and PNS to
receive measurable rainfall this month...although only kept those
chances at slight. Mild temperatures are expected with overnight lows
in the mid 50s to mid 60s and daytime highs around 80. /08

.LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...The upper level ridge aloft
begins to build over the area Friday with the surface high pressure
centered over the eastern states. Deep layer ridging remains the
dominant synoptic influence on area weather through Monday creating
a mild, dry and warm weather pattern. Temperatures will trend above
climatological norms through this period. Interior temperatures will
range from highs in the mid to upper 80s to overnight lows in the low
to upper 50s. Closer to the coast highs will be a little lower...low
to mid 80s and overnight lows a little warmer...low to mid 60s. /08


.MARINE...A surface ridge moves to the east coast through tonight,
bringing a more east to southeast flow to area coastal waters. A
weak surface boundary will move over the area late Thursday into
Thursday night, disrupting the surface ridge and bringing a more
diurnally driven flow to the area, mainly over near coastal and
protected waters. Well offshore, the winds remain a more organized
easterly. The surface ridge re-organized over the Atlantic seaboard
Friday into the weekend, bringing a more organized surface ridge.
This ridge will shift southwest, to over the northern Gulf coast,
bringing a light, more diurnally driven flow back to area coastal
waters for the weekend. /16


Mobile      83  58  81  64 /   0   0  10  10
Pensacola   82  62  80  66 /   0   0  10  10
Destin      82  64  80  67 /   0   0  10  10
Evergreen   86  53  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  84  50  83  59 /   0   0  10  20
Camden      86  53  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
Crestview   85  51  81  61 /   0   0  10   0




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