Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 251047 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
547 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12Z issuance...Vfr conditions forecast in the near term. Satellite
indicates that high level clouds will advance in from the northwest
this morning due to blow off from deep convection moving eastward into
western and central Arkansas. Heading into the afternoon...expect to
see the formation of cu with bases between 3 and 5 kft. Patchy fog
at daybreak dissipates quickly after sunrise. Light winds this
morning become southeast through the day between 8 and 12 knots. /10


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...Upper air weather maps
show a short wave mid level ridge axis extending from the western
Gulf into the Lower Mississippi River Delta. This feature acts as a
shield over the local area from deep convection and severe storms
which continues to impact the plains states. A stark contrast in deep
layer moisture is advertised in the near term. Along the western
periphery of the deep layer ridge axis...forecasters note that layer
moisture (pwats increase to a range from 1.7 to 1.9 inches from the
Lower Mississippi River Delta to eastern Texas). Across the central
Gulf Coast...within the eastern periphery of the ridge axis (pwats
range from 1.2 to 1.4 inches on average by this afternoon. Despite
some moderation in deep moisture levels in comparison to the past few
days...larger scale subsidence from the upper ridge keeps mention of rain
out of the forecast. Surface high pressure continues to the east
with a light south to southeast wind flow forecast. Under a mix of
sun and developing fair weather cumulus clouds through the day...high
temperatures are forecast to lift into the upper 80`s to lower 90`s
along and north of I-10. Slightly lower highs by a category in the
mid 80`s along the beaches due to flow coming in off the Gulf. For
tonight...with slightly higher surface based moisture/higher
dewpoints...there are indications that support the potential of late
night patchy fog development. Overnight lows forecast in the mid 60`s
interior to lower 70`s coast. /10

SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...An upper ridge over the
eastern states weakens through Friday as an upper trof advances
across the Plains. An upper low meanwhile advances northward from
the Bahamas, including development of an associated surface low. An
east-west oriented surface ridge over the southeast states begins to
shift northward as the Bahamas system advances, but regardless
promotes a generally light southerly flow over the forecast area. Model
soundings show subsidence effects from the weakening ridging which will
promote continued dry conditions over the forecast area. Highs will
be mostly in the upper 80s inland with mid 80s near the coast. Lows
will be in the mid 60s inland with upper 60s/near 70 closer to the
coast. /29

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...The Plains upper trof ejects
off across the Great Lakes region through Sunday while the system
north of the Bahamas moves to near the Carolinas, then weakens
through Tuesday. Upper ridging builds over the lower Mississippi
river region through Sunday then weakens through Tuesday during this
transition, while a surface ridge over the area weakens, possibly
yielding to the development of a surface trof extending from the
system over/near the Carolinas. Have opted to continue with a dry
forecast for Saturday, although a storm or two may develop, then
stayed with slight chance pops for Sunday and Monday, with slightly
higher pops for Tuesday as the environment becomes more conducive for
convection. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s, then
trend to around 90 for much of the area except for mid/upper 80s near
the coast. Lows Saturday night will range from the mid/upper 60s
inland to around 70 at the coast, then trend warmer to the upper 60s
inland with lower 70s near the coast by Monday night. /29

MARINE...Very little change in south to southeast flow through
Saturday noted in the coastal waters forecast as high pressure
extends from off the Mid-Atlantic Coast into the southeast. A weak
surface pressure pattern sets up on Sunday resulting in light winds
of varying direction. Seas around 2 feet through Thursday become 2 to
3 feet Friday and Saturday. Rain chances look slim to none through
the period. /10


.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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