Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 210501 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1201 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION [20.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY MVFR
FOG COULD DEVELOP IN TYPICAL LOWER LYING AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE LOCAL TAFS.
CALM TO LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND TONIGHT BECOMES SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS NEAR
THE COAST SUNDAY. /21


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION  [21.00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FOG POTENTIAL
FOR TONIGHT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW...BUT A FEW PATCHES OF
MVFR FOG MAY OCCUR IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /21

MARINE UPDATE...AREA MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THOUGH STILL
REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WE HAVE LET
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...TONIGHT...AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
HEAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST....THE FA REMAINS UNDER DRY...COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED. WITH THE LAST
BOUNDARY TO MOVE OVER THE FA STILL HANGING AROUND SOUTH OF THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA...ISOLATED SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH
THE FAR OFFSHORE ZONES OF THE FA...BUT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY...THE LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUES NORTHEAST...WHILST
MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE LAST WEEK. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
EASES...BUT WITH A DRIER THAN SEASONAL AIRMASS OVER THE FA. WITH THE
DRY AIRMASS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA...TEMPS HIGHER THAN SEASONAL
EXPECTED. SEE NO INDICATION OF A BACK-DOOR SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING
OVER THE AREA LIKE LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORN. /16

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE EASTERN STATES LONGWAVE
TROF AMPLIFIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE SYSTEM.  A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROF WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING
MORNING.  THE FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  A LARGE AND
STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN STATES IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING STRENGTHENING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  UPPER RIDGING MEANWHILE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN STATES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A WEAK
UPPER LOW IS LEFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROF.  WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AS LAYER LIFTING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTS
IN ISOLATED PRECIPITATION.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
INLAND AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID FIFTIES.  SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST.  MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LOW IS CUT OFF OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES THEN WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN TROF BY SATURDAY WHILE
SHIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  WHILE THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION...AN INVERTED TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OR OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF CLOSE TO THE WEAK UPPER LOW.  EITHER WAY...WHILE
DRY CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD...THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/29

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...STRATUS DECK PUSHING WEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FA CONTINUES TO MIX OUT...WITH BASES IN THE MVFR RANGE. AM
EXPECTING THESE TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS... WITH LOCALIZED PATCHES OF FOG
DROPPING VISBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. /16

MARINE...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY UNTIL A FRONT GETS PUSHED ACROSS THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPORARY
RISES IN SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY FROM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW SHIFTS TO
NORTHEASTERLY. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
MAINLY UNPROTECTED WATERS SETTING BACK UP TUESDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  90  64 /  05  05  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   69  87  71  90  67 /  05  05  05  20  10
DESTIN      72  85  73  88  70 /  05  05  05  20  10
EVERGREEN   64  91  65  89  57 /  00  05  10  20  05
WAYNESBORO  62  91  65  88  56 /  00  05  10  20  05
CAMDEN      63  91  66  89  55 /  00  05  10  20  10
CRESTVIEW   65  89  65  90  62 /  05  05  05  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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