Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 240837
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
337 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA ATTM MOVES EAST...THE CLOUD OVER ASSOCIATED WITH
IT MOVES OFF...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN US ROCKIES SHIFTS
EAST...TO OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO
BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND KEEP
THE FA UNDER LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

EVEN WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD A BIT OVER THE
FA...AM EXPECTING THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH TO WORK WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO PUSH COOLER AIR
OVER THE FA AND KEEP TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL. /16

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
RESULTS IN A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY MORNING...
BUT LOWS WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AFTER THAT AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

A DEEP LAYER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE MONDAY AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 1.25-1.5 INCHES BY MIDWEEK...BUT THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. SO WHILE
HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...WILL ONLY
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WED/THU AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO SEMI-ZONAL. ANY COLD FRONT PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE DELAYED
TO JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. /16

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOODLE AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING AREA COASTAL WATERS UNDER
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LAST OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  50  78  55  83 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  53  79  58  82 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      75  55  78  61  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  43  78  50  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  76  44  80  51  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      76  43  78  50  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   76  42  79  51  83 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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