Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 181124
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
524 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...VFR conditions and light north winds prevail
through the forecast period. /49

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...Cool and dry weather
continues through the near term as a zonal flow pattern sets up
aloft and surface high pressure builds east into the region. With
winds (and thus, cold air advection) weakening, we begin to see a
slight warming trend today as temperatures reach the mid 40`s
across the area. Hopefully this will help melt and evaporate the
remaining icy spots on roads. Tonight, clear skies and calm winds
will result in plenty of radiative cooling, allowing temperatures
to become very cold once again. The previous Hard Freeze Watch
has been upgraded to a Hard Freeze Warning for areas generally
north of I-10 late tonight, where lows will dip into the upper
teens to around 20 degrees. Closer to the coast, temperatures will
get down into the low to mid 20s. /49

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...A 1028 mb surface
high pressure centered across the forecast area will move east
over the western Atlantic, but a trailing surface ridge will
remain across the southeast states and northeast Gulf of Mexico
through Saturday night. A light and variable wind through Friday
night will become southeasterly on Saturday along the western
periphery of the surface ridge, bringing increasing low level
moisture and the potential of patchy fog late Saturday night.
Zonal upper flow will become southwesterly as an upper shortwave
over the southern plains moves slowly east, however rain-free
conditions should remain through the short term.

Temperatures will continue to trend warmer through the period,
with highs Friday climbing to between 52 to 56 degrees, and highs
Saturday climbing to between 60 to 65 degrees. Lows will trend
above normal by Saturday night. /22

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...An upper level low
pressure area exiting the southern Rockies early Sunday will
move east over the central Great Plains through Sunday night, and
toward the Great Lakes region on Monday. The surface high pressure
ridge across the southeast states and northeast Gulf of Mexico
will weaken early next week as surface low pressure area
developing across the Western High Plains deepens and lifts
northeast toward the Great Lakes through Tuesday morning. An
associated cold front will approach the region from the west on
Monday.

These features will bring widespread rain back to the region late
Sunday night through early Monday evening, along with possible
embedded isolated thunderstorms. Widespread rainfall amounts
around one-half inch should occur, with locally higher amounts
near one inch possible. Patchy to areas of fog should resume early
next week ahead of the cold front. Dry conditions will follow
through mid week. /22

MARINE...Moderate offshore flow gradually diminishes through
today, with a generally light easterly flow settling in Friday
and Saturday. Periods of slightly stronger drainage winds will be
possible near the shore over the next few nights, at least until a
better established southeast flow develops Saturday night into
Sunday. Onshore flow then continues into Monday before the next
cold front blasts through and winds shift back to northerly Monday
night into the middle part of next week. Seas diminish to around
1 to 2 feet into this weekend before gradually increasing to 3 to
5 feet early next week in response to the increasing winds. /49

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

     Hard Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for
     ALZ051>060-261-262.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206.

     Hard Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for
     FLZ201-203-205.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206.

MS...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

     Hard Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for
     MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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