Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 061724
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AT ALL SITES EXPECTED TO PERSIST. SOME DECREASE IN SPEED IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING. 05/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AND MARINE AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND NO PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECREASE IN SPEED EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LOOK TO
BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED AT THIS
TIME. 05/RR

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10AM
WITH WINDS BELOW CRITERIA...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WORDING WAS
ADDED FOR OFFSHORE ZONES AND SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI
SOUND AREAS FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. DECREASING OFFSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES SOUTH. LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST. CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS BY MID WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. 05/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT. /08

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MILD AND SUNNY WEATHER
CONTINUES TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN
TONIGHT. THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE
OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. THIS COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL
ADVECT DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S MOST SITES AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST. /08

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS
THE HIGH MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. /13

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE
PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
INCREASE. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S WITH LOWS WARMING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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