Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 281848
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
248 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
BETTER COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
MORE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TODAY, BUT AGAIN, VERY LITTLE SHEAR
WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR INDIVIDUAL STORMS TO SURVIVE FOR LONGER
THAN AN HOUR OR SO. IF A STORM IS ABLE TO STICK TOGETHER FOR A
WHILE, THEN A VERY ISOLATED BRIEF WIND GUST UNDERNEATH IT COULD BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW THE BEST COVERAGE
ALONG THE PLATEAU AND IS DRIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS EASTERN
TENNESSEE. FOG IS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS, BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO BE PATCHY IN AREAS THAT GET RAIN
THIS EVENING.

WE SET UP FOR A SIMILAR STORY TOMORROW, BUT THIS TIME I BELIEVE
THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH NEAR THE
TENNESSEE/VIRGINIA BORDER. DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT TOMORROW, THIS
COMBINED WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS IN SOME PLACES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NM/W TX WILL RETROGRADE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL USHER
IN A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY. AS SUCH...WILL HOLD ON TO A MENTION
OF CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS BECOMING DRY BY EARLY FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...HEAT INDEX VALUES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY. LOOK FOR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HEAT INDICES AFTER THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  95  75  92 /  20  20  20  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  73  92  73  89 /  20  30  20  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  92  73  90 /  20  30  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              70  89  69  86 /  30  40  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/AC



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