Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 200233
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
933 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Isentropic lift leading to widespread low-level clouds to our
southwest on the western periphery of a low-level ridge. Have
increased cloud cover in the forecast to be closer in line with
current observations and trends. Believe that the current RAP does
a good job at initializing current cloud cover and showing it
moving into our forecast area tonight and Saturday. With
925-850mb clockwise winds around the low-level ridge and the ridge
axis extending through our forecast area, believe WNW winds and
upslope flow conditions will be probable for the mountains late
tonight and Saturday with a slight chance of some drizzle across
the higher terrain because of the orographic lift. May even have
some patchy freezing drizzle late tonight across the higher
terrain as lift increases near sunrise. With cloud cover expected
to arrive across NETN/SWVA/SWNC latest tonight, expect these
areas to be the coldest tonight with efficient radiational cooling
until the cloud cover increases late. If cloud cover does stick
around during the day on Saturday as the RAP and NAM indicate, max
temperatures may be several degrees below MAV MOS guidance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             30  54  37  64 /   0   0  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  29  51  38  59 /   0  10  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       29  50  38  58 /   0  10  10  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              22  49  36  57 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

JB



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