Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 240701
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
301 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
High pressure at the surface is well established across the
eastern Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachian region early this
morning...with a mostly clear sky and calm winds prevailing. This
set up will likely lead to some patchy valley fog around
daybreak...particularly across far Northeast Tennessee and
Southwest Virginia. Will monitor trends for the possibility of an
SPS in that area for localized dense fog through 13z.

After sunrise...some scattered high clouds will eventually spread
into the region from the west from convection over the Southern
Plains...lower Mississippi Valley...and Ohio Valley. Models
suggest that a stray shower or storm could try to sneak into the
area late tonight along the TN/KY/VA border area. However...think
that the drier area and subsidence from the high ridge should keep
things mainly dry and have kept PoPs below mentionable levels for
now.

The main question for the short-term forecast will be the
timing of the high clouds and how warm it will get this afternoon.
Given the high progged thickness values and temperatures aloft...
combined with the sunny to mostly sunny conditions for a majority
of the day...think that highs in the lower 80s seem plausible over
the northern Valley...and the mid to perhaps upper 80s over the
central and southern Valley. Warmer lows tonight as well in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As we head into the middle of the work week we will continue to see
the ridge building in strength over us. Most of the weather for the
rest of the week into the next week will be determined by the
strength and location of this ridge. Currently the GFS is weaker
with this ridge allowing for increased moisture over the area and
impulses to ride along the boundary of it, bringing on and off
shower and thunderstorm chances each day. Most of the other models
however are a bit stronger with the ridge and keeping more stable
air over our area. Will go with very low chances for rain and
thunderstorms most days of this week. However much of the rest of
this weeks looks to be dry.

With the ridge building in over our area for an extended period of
time, temperatures will be able to climb into the 80`s almost each
day for most of our forecast area, well above average for this time
of year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             88  63  89  65 /   0   0  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  85  60  86  64 /   0   0  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       85  60  86  63 /   0  10  10  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              81  53  82  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

AMP/ABM


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