Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 060809
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
309 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
A QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE.
THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST...AS A BROAD TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TODAY. WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...A BROAD AREA OF BKN/OVC MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY
DAY. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...BUT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL CUT
DOWN ON HEATING SLIGHTLY...SO HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR SO BELOW
GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT...THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...THE SKY
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHILLY MORNING ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY WITH MILD CONDITIONS.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL CONTINUE BE A DEVELOPING LONG-WAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LOW. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE STRONGEST. EITHER WAY A
TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW
STEEPENING LAPSE RATE AS UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COLDER AIR ALOFT.
FAIRLY DECENT LOW-LEVEL CAPES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

WILL CALL FOR LIKELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY AND WILL BEGIN AS RAIN IN THE
VALLEY AND MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION PLATEAU/MOUNTAINS...THEN
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW DUIRNG THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT UNCERTAIN FOR THE VALLEY.  WILL HIGHLIGHT
THIS WITHIN THE HWO AND SPS. DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY...DID
NOT FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE. HAVE HIGHS IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHIC SNOW ANTICIPATED WITH
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE. AGAIN...HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             50  31  56  35 /   0   0   0  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  46  30  52  34 /   0   0   0  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       48  30  54  34 /   0   0   0  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              44  25  49  30 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/DH



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