Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 282047
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
247 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The weather over the Northern Rockies this week will be dominated
by a ridge of high pressure centered over Western Montana and
monsoonal moisture moving slowly around the ridge throughout the
period. The high pressure under the ridge will bring continued hot
temperatures, and the moisture support a chance of showers and
thunderstorms at times throughout the week. With an absence of any
significant upper-level features to aid in triggering storms,
the main factor will be very weak and subtle impulses moving
through the ridge, and thunderstorm chances will be largely
dependent on moisture availability. Thus, while there is low
confidence in any one day, it is likely that midweek will have the
best chance of thunderstorm activity as models show the best
moisture moving through in that period.

In terms of impacts to Western Montana and North-Central Idaho, we
are not expecting anything significant at this time as the storms
do not look to be particularly strong. Lightning is still a
concern, as with all thunderstorms, although increasing moisture
during the week could help offset fire vulnerability. Flash
flooding, while not outside the realm of possibility, is not a big
concern at this time as storm motion looks to speed up by the time
the best moisture arrives midweek.

Looking ahead to the latter part of the week and into the
weekend, there is a potential for a stronger upper-level disturbance,
originally rooted in the subtropics, to drift northward and bring
better instability as well as increased moisture to the Northern
Rockies around Saturday. We will be watching this feature closely
in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...A small threat exists for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, mainly impacting KSMN and perhaps KBTM. Meanwhile,
breezy north winds are possible at KMSO late this afternoons.
Conditions will clear out shortly after sunset with winds
diminishing.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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