Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 022025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
225 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015


Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into this
evening as southwest flow downstream of a broad upper-level
trough over the Pacific NW funnels moisture and weak lift into the
Northern Rockies. The best conditions for strong thunderstorms has
shifted well east of our area, and so the main threats this
evening will be brief heavy rain and lightning, especially in
southwest Montana and Lemhi County, Idaho. Only isolated thunder
is expected elsewhere as cool temperatures have greatly reduced
instability. Showers and any thunderstorms will be slowest moving
in Northwest Montana where winds aloft are lighter and not
uniform with height.

A warming trend and slight drying trend begins tomorrow and goes
into the weekend. Wednesday and Thursday will feature lesser
chances of thunderstorms each day as the upper-level low weakens
and moves into Canada. Overnight showers cannot be entirely ruled
out, while afternoon showers and thunderstorms will likely be
limited to the Salmon River corridor through southwest Montana.
Heavy rain and lightning will be the main threats with any storms
that do pop up. Upper-level winds should be strong enough that
slow-moving storms will not be a concern.

As a cut-off low develops over California Friday into the weekend,
warmer air will continue to be brought north on the east side of
this system. Above-average moisture remains in the atmosphere,
but temperatures continue to warm slightly. By the weekend,
temperatures should be around 10 degrees above average. Shower
chances remain each afternoon; however, large-scale forcing is
expected to be weak, so widespread strong storms are not a concern
at this time.


.AVIATION...Widespread showers will affect all terminals this
afternoon and early evening, with most activity decreasing within
a few hours after sunset. Partial terrain obscuration can be
expected across the area. KSMN/KBTM may see cumulus buildups and
lightning in vicinity through about 1z this evening. After drying
overnight, showers are possible at all terminals again tomorrow



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