Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 250519
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1019 PM PDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and potentially an isolated thunderstorm or
two will be possible over the inland hills/mountains through this
evening. Otherwise, temperatures will remain seasonably cool
through Wednesday with diminishing chances of showers. A gradual
warming and drying trend is then slated for the remainder of the
week and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As of 8:53 PM PDT Tuesday...A few showers still
linger across the region this evening. Most notably over the Santa
Lucia Range and the hills of San Benito, Santa Clara and Alameda.
The Santa Rita RAWS located near the southern tip of San Benito
County has reported 0.08" over the last few hours with 0.02"
reported at Limekiln Creek in Monterey County. 0.12" and 0.11" has
also been reported at Chews Ridge and Ventana Cone (in Monterey
County), respectively over the last 6 hours. Models indicate
lingering showers possible through tonight mainly over the areas
mentioned above. The potential for isolated thunderstorms still
exist given the unstable airmass aloft, however as the sun sets
this evening chances will diminish.

Latest water vapor imagery as well as the last few frames of the
visible imagery depicts a nicely formed upper low centered at
approx. 200 NM southwest of the Monterey Peninsula. The upper
level trough and associated closed low responsible for the
unsettled/unstable weather we have seen for the past couple of
days is forecast to dig a bit further south before swinging across
South-Central California on Wednesday. The trough is then progged
to continue moving eastward Thursday as high pressure gradually
strengthens over the Eastern Pacific. This will result in a
gradual warming and drying trend across the district. Temperatures
will warm a few degrees on Wednesday. However they will likely
remain below average for this time of year. A few lingering
showers cannot be ruled out for Wednesday due to the proximity of
the low as it moves across the southern half of the state.

By Thursday the low will be well east of the region and high
pressure will regain control of the area. 500MB heights and
850MB temps will rise sharply translating into above average
temperatures across the region. Temperatures will continue to warm
into friday and remain warm through the weekend with temperatures
reaching into the 60s to lower 70s along the coast and 70s to
lower 80s inland. Models indicate there will be periods of
offshore flow through the weekend as a thermal trough develops
along the coast.

The ridge of high pressure building over the Eastern Pacific is
forecast to gradually shift east through the weekend and into
early next week. This will maintain warm and dry conditions
through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:19 PM PDT Tuesday...A closed upper level low
southwest of the Monterey Peninsula will move southeast and be
near Point Mugu Wednesday morning. Low cloud coverage will
continue to increase tonight. Patchy drizzle or sprinkles are a
possibility into Wednesday morning.

Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR cig tonight. VFR forecast to return by late
Wednesday morning. Westerly wind gusts to 20-25 knots develop by 20z
Wednesday continuing into Wednesday evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs tonight with clearing by late
Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...as of 06:54 PM PDT Tuesday...Northerly winds and seas
will gradually increase tonight and wednesday. Winds will be
strongest north of Point Reyes. The strong and gusty winds will
persist into the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm from 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: Canepa
MARINE: MM


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