Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 192358
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
458 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. DRY WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT SATURDAY...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IMPACTING THE COAST NORTH OF POINT
ARENA AT THIS HOUR HOWEVER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE WILL KEEP ALL BUT SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH.
TEMPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...COOLER NEAR THE COAST.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TOMORROW INCREASING 850 MB
TEMPS AND DECREASING THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIDESPREAD 70S
AND LOW 80S ARE FORECAST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HANGING ON TO UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH AT MOST IN THE NORTHERN REACHES OF SONOMA COUNTY WHILE
THE 12Z NAM DEPICTS BARELY ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE REDUCED QPF
IN AGREEMENT WITH CNRFC TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS TOTAL AT MOST.
TEMPERATURES COOL QUITE A BIT TUESDAY AS THE COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLES IN.

DRY WEATHER SETS UP AND TEMPS REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN AN END OF THE WEEK
STORM HAVING A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE OVER
90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OVER A TENTH OF INCH OF RAIN IN SAN
FRANCISCO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT SATURDAY...A DISSIPATING FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS HAS BROUGHT SOME LOW CIGS TO THE COAST WITH SOME OF IT
GETITING INTO SFO. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR UP
AND BECOME VFR AFTER 04Z AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AFTER TROUGH
PASSAGE. TRICKIER FORECAST FOR THE MRY BAY AREA AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT AND LESS IMPACT FROM THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...BRIEF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 04Z. VFR AFTER 04Z
UNDER DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
THROUGH 04Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MRY AFTER 01Z AND SNS
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH TO MONTEREY COUNTY.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO 13 TO 15 FEET WITH SWELL PERIODS 15 TO
16 SECONDS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THE ENTIRE COAST FROM SONOMA COUNTY
                                  THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

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