Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 290001
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
501 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...KMUX
RADAR DEPICTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE
GROUND...YET WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AS ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION GIVEN SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST MODELS AND
INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND...AWAY FROM THE
COAST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WITH A DECREASE
IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY AREAS.

ONSHORE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...INLAND AREAS WELL REMAIN VERY WARM
TO HOT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN AND
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
FROM MOST OF THE COAST BUT CONTINUE TO CLING TO THE SAN MATEO
COAST. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE WEAK AND MARINE LAYER IS AROUND 1500
FT SO CLOUDS WILL BE LATE TO SPREAD INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AND VFR
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE AIRPORT EVENING RUSH. MVFR/IFR
CIGS AFTER 08Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM THE
COAST AND THERE IS NO SIGN OF ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THE BAY YET. AS A
RESULT CIGS WILL BE A LITTLE LATER IN SPREADING INTO MRY AND SNS
THAN YESTERDAY. IFR AFTER 04Z AT MRY AND 05Z AT SNS.


&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT MONDAY...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH GENERALLY GENTLE SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY SOUTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: RGASS/R CANEPA

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