Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 152345
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
445 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER INLAND
AREAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH BAY AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:42 PM PDT MONDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY MIX OUT EACH DAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
NEAR THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AS THE THROUGH PUSHES INLAND AND THROUGH THE REGION...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
GENERALLY EXPECTING MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO BE OVER
THE NORTH BAY...SOUTHWARD INTO THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. COASTAL
DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS
FURTHER SOUTH PICKING UP TRACE AMOUNTS TO NO RAINFALL AT ALL.

AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW PUSHES FURTHER INLAND AND
THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION
AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS THEN
DIFFER IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OVERALL...WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND ONGOING DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT MONDAY...HIGH PROB VFR WILL CONTINUE
AT AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
OVER AREA. HOWEVER LATE TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP AND SOME INLAND MOTION OF THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE BUT IT
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20
KT TIL 04Z. LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE AT NIGHT. VFR
RETURNS LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR WILL
HOLD THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING. IFR FORECAST TO DEVELOP 07Z-09Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:07 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND GENTLE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: BELL

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