Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 230350
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
850 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY INLAND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. OUR AREA IS IN
THE CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DEEP MARINE LAYER
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN ENERGY WITH
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN IN ITS CURRENT LOCATION RIGHT
ON INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR AREA AND KEEPING INLAND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HOWEVER...WARMER THAN NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...ONLY MODEST
DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES AND MARINE LAYER DEPTH.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT A WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY BY TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
CALIFORNIA. INLAND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
OPERATIONAL GFS (PLUS AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NAEFS MEMBERS) BRINGS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM MARIE ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THIS
IS NOT THE FAVORED SOLUTION. INSTEAD, CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
FORECASTS BOTH KEEP THE RAIN WELL OUT OF OUR AREA WHICH IS WHAT
THE OPERATIONAL GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...STRATUS IS MAKING AN EARLY
COMEBACK ACROSS NEAR COAST TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE IFR CIGS ACROSS
MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO ANTICIPATE A SLIGHTLY LATER
BURN OFF SATURDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE SEABREEZE WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. BURN OFF IS
EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SATURDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEABREEZE WILL REACH 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. BURN OFF IS EXPECTED
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS. A MODERATE PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL...GENERATED BY TROPICAL
STORMS...WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA/BELL
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: SIMS

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