Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 102349
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
349 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST
THURSDAY RAISING THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND WE CAN NOW EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE 1200Z ECMWF AND 1800Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADD LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:49 PM PST WEDNESDAY...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. HAZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:26 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SEAS AND WINDS THIS
EVENING. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW. A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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