Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 282113
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
313 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

PER LARGE SCALE FLOW...MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A BROAD UPPER TROF INITIALLY ACROSS THE CONUS BEFORE
DEVELOPMENT OF POS TILT LONG WAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE WEST COAST. BY WED MORNING...MODELS PROG SRN PORTION OF
TROF EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED CUT OFF LOW SLOWLY MIGRATING INTO THE
SWRN STATES.

ALL THIS LEADING TO A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR...WITH
LEADING EDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS ND/MN...ALONG WITH SNOW
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT LAST
SEVERAL RUNS INDUCING SNOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER
INVOF LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC FRONT...WHERE 285K ISENTROPIC FORCING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND COND PRES DEF WILL BE WEAKEST. IN
ADDITION...STOUT UPPER SUPPORT VIA DPVA WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCING
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. AT THIS POINT EXPECT SNOW ACTIVITY TO
GRADUALLY EXPAND SWD THRU TONIGHT THEN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA ON
MONDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE COMING TO A CLOSE THEN MON EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING CAA/SUBSIDENCE.

WEAK MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW GOING FCST WITH 2 INCHES NORTH
AND AN INCH SOUTH STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...BULK OF CAA
PUSHES IN MID WEEK WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SWRN STATES ON THURSDAY WILL MIGRATE INTO ERN TX FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT THEN DIVERGE ON EXPECTED TRACK. THE ECM IS CONTINUING
DELAY LIFTING THE UPPER LOW UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT LIFTS IT OUT OF
OK THEN INTO THE TN/OH VLY ON SUNDAY...LEAVING THE CWA DRY.
MEANWHILE THE GFS...GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE CMC...LIFTS THE UPPER
LOW INTO ERN KS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING....THEN INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...PREFER
TO FAVOR COMBINATION OF GFS/CMC WITH MAINTAINING SMALL SNOW POPS
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...GOING MAX TEMP FCST LOOKING ON
TRACK WITH VALUES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING...HIGH THEN MID
CLOUDS. LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT KOFK FIRST THEN KOMA/LNK. LIGHT SNOW WILL
ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY


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