Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 281720
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1220 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

Update for 18z TAFS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

New SWODY1 rids FA of Slight Risk Severe with FROPA Today.
However, given its diurnal passage, do anticipate some possibility
of moderate destabilization/mid level updraft potential until it
sweeps thru, and as such will amp up Pops into mid to high chance
category upon its passage, with HRRR modeling of short term
convective features a good starting point. Pops diminish after
early evening with all points in post frontal airmass overnight,
where slightly cooler/drier airmass infiltrates region upon
falling upper heights and arcing surface high pressure across mid
Mississippi river valley.

Some long wave spoke energy out of the Great Lakes vortex could
touch off a few instability showers/storms Monday evening, and
again the same for Tuesday pm/evening into Tuesday night, but
overall Pop is low and generally, a couple nice recovery days are
on tap to finish out the Holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

On Wednesday, a sfc high will be building southeast into the
region which will scour any residual moisture out of the area.
The GFS is slower in bringing in this feature which was not the
case yesterday. If there is any lingering precipitation, it should
be across the southern areas and likely just during the morning
hours. Instead of completely removing POPs for Wednesday, will
tailor them to just the southern areas. If the sfc high ends up
being progged to settle in quicker, we can pull the POPs.

Depending on what model has the correct solution, the center of this
sfc high will either settle right into the area or skirt by to our
north or along our northern counties, and then shift northeast of
the area on Wednesday night. Whatever happens, our winds will shift
around to southerly by Thursday. Moisture will slowly advect back
into the area and depending on the timing of some upper level
impulses heading our way, we could see some rain chances at least re-
entering the westernmost counties on Thursday. A more potent upper
system is in the offing for Friday which will mean an uptick in
POPs. This unsettled pattern flows into the weekend as well, even
though the actual synoptic pattern is far from being resolved
consistently between models at this point but models are agreeing
that a frontal boundary will slowly move through the area Saturday
night into Sunday.

Daily high temperatures do not look like they`ll stray very far from
either the upper 70s or lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

Plenty of MVFR clouds initially but these will be breaking up
during the afternoon with skies going SKC around 00z or so.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon so
kept VCSH at all sites except for KCGI. Winds will continue to
gust to 20-22 kts for most of the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PS
AVIATION...PS



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