Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 271036
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
536 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT.

THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER OUR CWA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE AREA WIDE
DURING THAT PERIOD.

NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA...THURSDAY WITH MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE LITTLE TO NONE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ARE
HIGHER OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE ON
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED. MEDIUM
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE STORMS THIS WEEKEND.

SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA
BRINGING ONE OF OUR BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE HEARTLAND. WITH
NEGATIVE LI`S...CAPES BETWEEN 1K AND 2K J/KG/2 COMBINED WITH
PW`S APPROACHING 2 INCHES WOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAINS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT. THE WIND PROFILE IS UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH A LITTLE SPEED
SHEAR BUT NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. THAT IS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...THERE WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR
OUTBREAK BUT WITH A BOUNDARY AND DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WITH ITS
PASSAGE CAN NOT RULE IT OUT. SUNDAY THE WEAK FRONT TRIES TO LIFT
BACK NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO MID WEEK LOOKS TO THE
BEST CHANCE OF A DRY FORECAST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
TRANSITIONING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK..

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES THROUGH THE VALID TIME OF TAFS WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING VSBY INTO MVFR IN TEMPO GROUP.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KH
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...KH


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