Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 301203
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
703 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Apologize for the delay this AM. Had technical issues.

In a nutshell, upper low (and accompanied sfc low) near the
Louisville, KY area will continue to be the main influence for us
during the next 12-24 hours. Highest pops (likely) will be over sw
IN and nw KY, closest to the upper low. Still are indications that
CAPEs will be running 500-1000 over the aforementioned areas
today, so will keep mention of isolated thunderstorms in the
forecast. With the cold pool aloft and relatively cool sfc temps
in the 60s, would not be too surprised if some small hail/graupel
can be generated.

Upper low finally begins to lift off to the north-northeast on
Saturday. Still may be close enough to generate a few showers,
but coverage should be less than today. Considerable cloud cover,
however, will keep temps below normal. By Sunday, more in the way
of sunshine will likely push readings back up to near normal
levels in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

The deterministic medium range models seemed to be in better
agreement overall with a mid level trof/ridge/trof set-up across the
CONUS in the extended period.

As next week progresses, heights aloft over the PAH forecast area
are progged to increase, especially by mid week, while surface
pressures remain relatively high. This will yield another period of
fair and relatively warm weather into mid week.

The large mid level low centered in the northern Plains by mid week
was shown to be more positively tilted by the ECMWF as it approaches
the Midwest. If this scenario verifies, the southern reaches of an
approaching surface frontal system will contain more energy, vs. the
negatively tilted scenario such as what the GFS showed. This will
mean a more sustained chance of scattered showers and tstms for us,
especially Wednesday night and Thursday. The initialization blend
still suggested the possibility of activity as early as Wednesday
afternoon in the western half of our area as warm moist advection
increases ahead of a surface cold front. We attempted to blend in a
little of the 00Z ECMWF to downplay the PoP just a bit on Wednesday.

It appears Wednesday will be the warmest day of the entire forecast
period, with some MOS suggesting peak afternoon temps as high as 87
in the east. For now, highs will be forecast in the lower half of
the 80s across our region, which is already significantly above
average. Lows will be around 60.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 656 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Upper level low pressure and associated sfc low will continue to
spin just to the east of the region. Bands of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will rotate counterclockwise from ne to sw over much
of the region during the TAF period. Due to timing uncertainty,
will go with vcsh most sites and adjust as things develop. Cigs
expected to stay in the MVFR range most of the period.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...GM



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