Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 281840

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
140 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Forecast remains dry. Southerly flow to develop tonight in the
wake of a warm front. This will allow for near record warmth
Saturday with gusty SSW winds the rule. A weak H5 s/wv will pass
across the area early Sunday. A weak cold front will move through
in the afternoon, lagging behind the mid level wave. Some low
level moisture and instability is seen along the front. But, the
developing subsidence behind the mid level wave should keep a lid
on things. Thus a dry Sunday forecast for now, which will continue
Sunday night behind the front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Confidence is relatively high for the extended with good agreement
between the models with the late week system and above normal

It appears the models have locked onto a solution for system next
week. They are very close in agreement with the timing and intensity
for the mid level low expected to hit the area Thursday morning.
However looking at forecast soundings...there will not be much
available moisture. It will also be stable at the surface with
positive LI`s and zero CAPE. There is a little elevated instability
aloft with K index values approaching thunder. For now will omit
thunder mention and take a wait and see approach on available
moisture. Will keep a chance of rain going since it is or next best
chance of weather in the next seven or more days. Its arrival time
shift a bit in the manner of hours but the models again seemed to be
fairly locked into this solution. It moves into the area as open mid
level low with a surface reflection of a cold front then closes off
as it passes to the south of us.

One thing that has remained consistent is the above normal temps
well into November. The next chance of a cool down will come with
the cold front late next week.


Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

VFR conditions through midday Saturday. Light south winds through
tonight will become SSW Saturday morning, with gusts 15 to 20 kts
developing 15-18z.



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