Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 010102
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
802 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Minor changes to the Freeze warning. Technically it should be
in effect only for the times when freezing conditions are
anticipated, so there are now two time frames, for tonight and
again tomorrow night. Tonight`s event looks rather marginal,
as it barely reaches criteria. Winds stay up, so frost chances
near zero. Tomorrow night still looks like the major freeze/frost
night. Slight uptick in temps by 1, maybe 2 degrees in the
hourly temps given the persistent wind. Clouds lingering over the
east should gradually decrease. Quite a difference from one year
ago tonight, when we were dealing with severe weather and even a
few tornadoes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A line of showers is marching across the remainder of the
southeastern tier of counties at this writing, and should be gone
by press time. Visible imagery shows clearing has worked its way
into the western tier of counties at this writing, and it will
spread eastward as well. However, cyclone induced low clouds will
follow the upper Low and impact our far northeastern, and eastern
counties, into the overnight hours.

Dew points have already plummeted into the lower 20s for some of
our northern counties, and this too will spread southward and
eastward overnight. Lows will be just below freezing, but with the
parent Cyclone rotating across our eastern counties, and the High
still to our west, the gradient will maintain some wind through much
of the overnight hours. We will let the freeze warning remain, as
temps will be below freezing, but with the dew point depression
likely remaining in the 5-10F range for the bulk of the night, and
winds staying up for most, if not the entire night, we`ll back off
on the frost wording for tonight.

The better hard freeze/frost will be tomorrow night, as the
surface High moves overhead, winds die early, and skies are clear.
It will be an ideal night for a widespread hard freeze/frost Sat
night. Then lots of sunshine Sunday will allow a diurnal warmup of
25 degrees, but that still means 50s for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

The extended forecast period begins with the a progressive trough-
ridge-trough pattern across the U.S., with the WFO PAH forecast
area shifting into the western limb of the ridge axis. Nearly all
of the medium range guidance initially moves a full latitude
progressive trough. through the intermountain region before
shearing the southern axis along the Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas
borders. This shearing action elongates the trough axis,
stretching the vorticity axis into the lower Mississippi Valley.

The main impact in the short term will be to increase and sustain
a period of lift over Missouri and enabling a little better
(although meager) of moisture into the western half of the WFO PAH
forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday night. It is at this point in
the forecast that elevated instability will be maximized. For that
period, added a differential PoP mention of thunderstorms (less
than the chance of showers) to handle elevated (mainly above 850
mb) convection.

By Wednesday night, there is a hint that a closed low will develop
near the California Baja region, building a ridge back in the
western U.S. and pushing the mean trough over the WFO PAH forecast
area to the northeast. With any meaningful flow from the Gulf of
Mexico blocked, precipitation chances will dwindle quickly in the
developing northwest flow.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal for this time of the
year for the extended period, owing to cloud and rain chances
early in the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 620 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Strong northerly low level flow will gradually weaken over the next
24 hours. Surface wind gusts will gradually decrease to around 20
knots by Saturday. Low clouds continue to wrap cyclonically around a
deepening low pressure system well to our east. The back edge of
these clouds will remain quasi-stationary between kpah and kevv much
of tonight. The low clouds will gradually shift east of the
kevv/kowb areas early Saturday morning. Cigs should remain
vfr...though some mvfr cannot be ruled out tonight at kowb.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

     FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM CDT Saturday to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

     FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM CDT Saturday to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     INZ081-082-085>088.

     FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM CDT Saturday to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     KYZ001>022.

     FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM CDT Saturday to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$








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