Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 280859
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
259 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Not alot of discussion time available this morning, first severe
thunderstorm warning issued a few minutes ago. Elevated
thunderstorms, capable of producing hail, was anticipated the last
couple days for parts of Southeast Missouri and Southwest Illinois
for the 09z-12z (3 am-6am CST) time period this morning. Both the
high resolution CAM (Convection Allowing Models) and the larger
grid spaced model guidance (12km NAM-WRF, 20km GFS, as well as
the ECMWF and CMCnh) are initializing the convection 40-80 nm too
far to the west-southwest. Made adjustments to the grids to
reflect the more progressive movement of the shower and
thunderstorm activity.

The cloud forecast will be problematic today and may impact
convective initiation later on this afternoon. I would not be
surprised to see a reduction of measurable PoPs for update for
later this morning into early afternoon.

Big question remains for this evening and overnight as to the
timing and coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms. At this
point, considering the enhanced risk, decided to increase emphasis
to damaging wind for tonight with the mention of severe storms.

Given the speed of this system, cleared out the precipitation a
little faster than the medium range guidance. Limited any mention
of severe thunderstorms to the 6am to 9am CST Wednesday for West
Kentucky. Also transitioned from damaging winds to heavy rain
during the same time period.

Dry and near seasonable temperatures should continue following the
frontal passage into Thursday.

Will try to provide a more detailed timing and description of
threats in the weather story and a local mesoscale discussion
during the next couple of hours...right now the focus is on
handling current warnings for Southeast Missouri and Southwest
Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Average confidence in the long term due to so- so model
agreement, especially Saturday night and Sunday.

High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft should keep the
region dry through Sunday. Late Saturday night into Sunday the
Canadian wants to crank out small pops over parts of the CWA but it
is the outlier model for sure. During that time frame we will be on
the back side of the aforementioned high pressure with increasing
moisture through the lower troposphere, which is probably what the
Canadian is latching onto. However, with no apparent kicker during
that period have opted to go with the majority and keep those
periods dry.

Precipitation chances begin to increase from the west Sunday night
into Monday with the approach of a cold front out of the plains.
Models not in good agreement on available instability ahead of the
approaching cold front so will not mention thunder in those
periods at this time.

Temperatures Friday and Friday night will be within a few degrees of
normal, then quickly warm to well above normal through the rest of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1120 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Convection has arrived and will be with us for most of the
overnight period. This activity will move out during the morning
hours, 12Z-15Z Tuesday. Cigs will likely become MVFR later on in
the night. Winds have been increasing and will stay up the rest of
the night and could be gusty at times. Low level wind shear will
be a possibility until more substantial gusts set in later
Tuesday. After this warm air advection activity moves east Tuesday
morning, we will have a lull, before the next batch of convection
develops between 00Z-06Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...JP



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