Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 241136
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
536 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Updated fro aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 150 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

High pressure at the surface and aloft will help keep things
dry today. Main issue lies with cloud cover along/east of the MS
River, and how quickly the clearing line can advance to the
east/northeast. It has not made much progress during the
overnight, but is expected to gradually shift east during the day.
Southwest IN/nrn Pennyrile of western KY should be the last to
see some clearing later in the day, and this will likely be the
region with the coolest temps. May even stay in the 40s if clouds
fail to clear out some.

Will get into more of a true warm sector regime tonight into
Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west. This front
still looks to be rather moisture-starved with little energy to
work with aloft. May see a few showers pop during the day over
western KY/sw IN where moisture return looks a bit higher, but
should be a non event for the most part. Surface temps ahead of
the front may surge into the 60s, esp over portions of wrn KY/sw
IN.

A secondary cold front will be poised to slide southeast through
the region Wednesday night. Though not much in the way of precip
is expected with this front either, it will serve to usher more
seasonal temperatures to the region by Thu/Thu night, along with
another round of extensive cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 150 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

The long term is looking fairly tranquil compared to the dynamic
weather pattern of the last few weeks. Overall forecast confidence
is higher than average given relatively good model agreement in the
overall synoptic pattern, though subtle differences in model
depiction of fast moving energy in cyclonic flow aloft reduces
confidence somewhat.

Seasonably cold weather should take hold from late week into early
next week with the region positioned between an upper level low near
Canada`s eastern shores and an upper level high off the U.S. West
Coast. Cyclonic northerly flow on the back side of the low will
bring a couple of fast moving impulses of energy across the area
during the period.

The first is forecast to pass through largely dry on Friday, though
some increase in sky cover is certainly possible. The more
pronounced secondary wave should pivot through the region on Sunday.
Models suggest there will be enough moisture with this second
disturbance to produce a chance of light rain or snow Sunday into
Sunday evening. Given the light precipitation forecast, snowfall
amounts appear to be very light at this point.

Highs through the period should range from the upper 30s to lower
40s, with lows expected in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Western edge of MVFR deck has stalled just west of PAH, so
KPAH/KEVV/KOWB will keep MVFR cigs and VFR vsbys for awhile. The
clouds will begin creepiong east again after sunrise, clearing
KPAH by late morning, and KEVV/KOWB by mid to late afternoon. KCGI
will have VFR conditions through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...RST


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