Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 281735 AAA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1035 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Updated Aviation

.SHORT TERM...Morning Update...A weak disturbance moving into the
Pacific Northwest this morning will move across the region today.
This wave will weaken further through the day, but will remain
strong enough to cause convective development over portions of
northeast Oregon late this afternoon and this evening. The best
coverages of storms are expected over Wallowa county, especially in
the early evening. In general the current forecast package covers
these trends, but did make some adjustments to timing and coverages
of the showers/storms. Also made some tweaks to sky cover, temps and
winds. 90

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs...A dry southwest flow aloft will prevail
over TAF sites.  At the surface, a low pressure area over the
Columbia Basin will cause increased pressure gradient along the
Cascades to translate to G15-20kts at DLS, BDN, RDM especially til
06z.

.LONG TERM...Previous Discussion...Monday through Friday...The
extended period will be dominated by high pressure aloft over the
inland west with a southwest flow over the CWA. This will cause hot
temperatures in the mid 90s to mid 100s in the lower elevations and
mid 80s to mid 90s mountains. There will be a weak wave in the flow
on Tuesday which will bring enough moisture and instability
northward to cause a slight chance of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms on Tuesday along the southern border of the CWA.
Otherwise it will remain dry and hot through the period. The hottest
day will be on Wednesday and Thursday of next week with 850 mb
temperatures around 30 degrees C. This translates to about 100-110
degrees F in the lower elevations...and 90s in the mountains. There
are some differences in the models with the ECMWF drier than the
GFS. Will lean toward the GFS for temperatures and the ECMWF for
moisture and instability. Will probably need excessive heat
highlights by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Previous Discussion...12Z TAFs...VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours. A wave in the flow will bring
some instability and moisture northward for some thunderstorms over
the northeast mountains, but they will not affect any of the TAF
sites. Winds will be light through most of the period...except that
it will become breezy in central Oregon this evening with winds of
15 to 25 kts. Winds will become light again overnight at all TAF
sites overnight tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop in
northeast Oregon this afternoon, and most of the lightning activity
will occur in Wallowa County and southeast Union County. Lightning
may cause new fire starts, and gusty winds from the storm could help
spread the new fires rapidly in the dry vegetation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  92  61  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  94  67  97  67 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  95  59  97  62 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  95  60  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  95  61  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  93  59  94  61 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  92  50  93  51 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  92  55  94  56 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  93  59  95  58 /  10  10  10  10
DLS  93  63  94  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this
     evening for ORZ645.

WA...None.
&&

$$

90/88/79/83


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