Area Forecast Discussion
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
555 PM ChST Fri Nov 24 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Scattered clouds and isolated showers prevailed across the
Marianas early this evening. Combined seas are 6 to 8 feet at the
buoys.

&&

.Discussion...
No significant changes were made to the forecast. The overall dry
pattern will continue through Sunday. Then it looks like there
will be an increase in moisture, which will at the very least
bring some more clouds and potentially bring some more showers.
Still not sure which day or days the best precip chances will be
as model guidance differs. For right now, left the forecast
unchanged.

High pressure will move off of Japan early next week and the
pressure gradient between the high pressure and disturbances south
of 10 N will increase wind over the weekend and we could gust to
around 25 mph.

&&

.Marine...
Wind and seas will increase beginning tonight due to increasing
pressure gradient. Seas will likely reach 7 to 10 feet in by
Saturday. A small craft advisory has been issued and a high surf
advisory may eventually needed. Rip current risk is already high
on east facing reefs and will likely be high on north facing reefs
as well.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Satellite shows a trade-wind disturbance east of Majuro is producing
scattered to numerous showers that are moving very slowly westward
into the Marshall Islands. Fair weather prevails over Kosrae for the
the near term. A band of convergent winds with showers and a few
thunderstorms persists over southern Pohnpei State. The GFS Model
indicates relatively wet weather over eastern Micronesia as trade-
wind convergence produces areas of showers moving from east to west
through the next few days.

Winds and seas will rise in the Marshalls over the weekend, so that
hazardous surf and marine conditions are likely by early next week.
Seas, winds and surf will also build some at Pohnpei and Kosrae.
Majuro/Kalo Buoy shows combined seas of 6 to 7 feet.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Convergent winds continue to produce showers and thunderstorms from
over Koror across southeastern Yap State and southern Chuuk State.
Hazardous winds and waves have developed over Yap and Koror, and are
headlined in those forecasts. The surf will need to be monitored for
hazardous conditions if swell waves become bigger or longer-period,
especially along north and east facing shores. GFS Model indicates
the showery weather will drift westward and weaken over the weekend.
Improving weather is expected for both Yap and Koror by next week.
At Chuuk, showers and thunderstorms will slowly shift to the west
and southwest, so that moderate trade winds and isolated showers are
expected through early next week.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CHST Monday for PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

Nierenberg/Simpson



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