Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 141959
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
559 AM CHST MON SEP 15 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF INVEST AREA 96W IS CURRENTLY PASSING AROUND 100
MILES SOUTH OF GUAM. BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST...NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER IN
THE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGHING. ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND BAND OF ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY LIES OVER THE
FORECAST ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL WIND DOWN AROUND MID MORNING...BUT DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY TO SEE THAT THIS VERIFIES. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL QPFS ALSO HINT THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO HAVE
ADDED SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. BOOSTED WINDS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH DAY 3 TO RECONCILE WITH
MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WHICH CALLS FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF 96W
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. NEXT POSSIBLE WEATHER
MAKER COULD BE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER
CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES ON WEDNESDAY. SYSTEM WOULD THEN POSSIBLY
AFFECT THE FORECAST ZONES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY OR
SO. WILL WAIT FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MAKING ANY FORECAST
GRID ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE GRIDS AGREED WELL WITH THE LATEST ALTIMETRY AND BUOY
READINGS...WHICH SHOW COMBINED SEAS IN THE 5 TO 6-FOOT RANGE.
BOTH EAST AND WEST SWELL WILL BE SUBSIDING AROUND MID
WEEK...ALLOWING RIP CURRENT RISK TO DECLINE TO LOW.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS ALL 3 LOCALES.
12Z ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MONSOON TROUGH NORTH OF CHUUK TRYING
TO LINK WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ALREADY EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS TO NEAR KOSRAE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER ALL 3 LOCALES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TROUGH TO EACH.
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS BENIGN THIS WEEK THOUGH MODELS
HINT AT SOME MOISTURE INCREASING AS THE TROUGH OVER THE MARSHALLS
SLOWLY SHIFTS WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW WEAK CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TROUGH THAT COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS BUT THE
SIGNAL REMAINS WEAK WITH LACK OF CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS.
THEREFORE...LATEST ISSUANCE WILL FOLLOW THE INHERITED FORECAST
WHICH MAINTAINS A DRY BIAS DURING NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE JUST SOUTH OF GUAM REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE IN THE REGION. RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
KOROR...AND EAST OF CHUUK. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
CHUUK WILL GIVE WAY TO IMPROVED CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST. DRIER PATTERN SEEN IN THE EAST WILL BUILD
IN OVER CHUUK TUESDAY. FARTHER WEST...FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST
OVER KOROR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER YAP TODAY. MODELS PROG THE DISTURBANCE TO
PASS JUST NORTH OF YAP ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ADDED
TO THE YAP FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...AND IF MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...KOROR WILL NEED SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY AS WELL. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN
THURSDAY TO BOTH LOCALES AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES NORTHWEST
AWAY FROM YAP AND PALAU.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/M. AYDLETT





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