Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 021935
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
535 AM CHST WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD JUST WEST OF THE MARIANAS
FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE CENTERED SSW OF GUAM NEAR 11N144E. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ON RADAR AND SATELLITE
ACROSS THE MARIANAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
PERSIST OVER THE REGION...AND SEAS ARE 6-7 FEET AT THE IPAN BUOY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE WEAK CIRCULATION DRIFTS NORTH TO JUST WEST OF THE
ISLANDS THURSDAY...THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY GENEROUS WITH RAINFALL THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
REFRESHED WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS AGAIN FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...AS LATEST
WW3 OUTPUT HAS SEAS UP TO 8 FEET TODAY EAST OF GUAM/ROTA...AND THE
IPAN BUOY INDICATING SEAS UP TO 7 FEET OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
THE RIP RISK MODERATE FOR THE NEXT 2-3- DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF KOSRAE THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS POHNPEI STATE AND JUST NORTH OF KOSRAE. DRIER WEATHER IS
SEEN FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. THE 12Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH SITTING JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI...WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST TRADES TO THE NORTH AND EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE DATE
LINE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE ALONG THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THIS DISTURBANCE WITH DRIER WEATHER TO THE SOUTH.
RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BUILD IN AT KOSRAE BY TONIGHT AND
POHNPEI BY FRIDAY. GFS SUGGESTS WETTER CONDITIONS AT POHNPEI THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT TIMING FOR ISOLATED VS SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE TOUGH TO PINPOINT. AT MAJURO...A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER
FEATURES EXPECTED. A SURFACE TROUGH LATE THIS WEEK WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER KOROR...YAP AND CHUUK THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER KOROR AND SOUTH OF YAP TO A
WEAK CIRCULATION CENTERED SOUTH OF GUAM. FAIR CONDITIONS AT YAP
WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT KOROR. MAINTAINED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KOROR DUE TO TROUGH AXIS
OVERHEAD AND GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE REPUBLIC. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHWARD...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS BOTH YAP AND KOROR.
FOR NOW...LITTLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT EITHER LOCATION THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
WATCH IN CASE THERE IS A FLARE UP OF CONVECTION. FARTHER EAST...A
DISTURBANCE IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF CHUUK.
IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CHUUK LAGOON PRIMARILY FROM
DECAYING SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE. WEATHER WILL IMPROVE THERE THIS
MORNING BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS TOWARD CHUUK. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT



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