Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXPQ60 PGUM 290949
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
749 PM CHST FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE MARIANAS SO UPDATED THE FORECAST.
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID SEE LIGTNING JUST
AFTER 7PM SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CHST FRI AUG 29 2014/

MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS SHOWER COVERAGE BECOMING SCATTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA
AND SATELLITE INDICATES THIS TREND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE EAST TONIGHT. ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS
A SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE MARIANAS ROUGHLY ALONG 147E-148E...AND
A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION IS SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK NEAR 4.5N149E.

DISCUSSION...
A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. OUR WEATHER PATTERN HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BUSY AND VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO A LITTLE
BUSY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE MARIANAS TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS INDICATES THE WEAK CIRCULATION
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN THE COMING
DAYS...ALONG WITH A MONSOON TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MARIANAS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY MOIST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
MAINLY GENTLE SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WAVES GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON WW3 GUIDANCE AND WIND GRIDS WERE
REFRESHED WITH LATEST GFS DATA.

EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SURFACE RIDGING OVER KOSRAE AND MAJURO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
AND SUSTAIN PLEASANT WEATHER FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THRU THIS
WEEKEND AND FOR MAJURO UNTIL SUNDAY. BOTH IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW A DISTINCT TRADE-WIND CONVERGENT BOUNDARY STRETCHING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM EQ170E TO WELL BEYOND THE DATE LINE AT 150W. THIS
FEATURE IS GOING TO SLIDE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH
COULD BRING WET WEATHER FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL PRODUCED BY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS NEAR FIJI AND SAMOA IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATES UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
COULD SPREAD TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS DURING THIS WEEKEND. HIGHER
SURF AND RIP CURRENT RISKS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
FACING SHORES BUT HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT EXPECTED.

WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A BROAD CIRCULATION WEST OF CHUUK WILL BE MOVING WEST OR
NORTHWESTERLY THRU THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGHS
THAT WERE THERE LAST NIGHT APPEAR TO HAVE AT LEAST PARTIALLY WASHED
OUT...SO DOWNGRADED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR CHUUK. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
AFTERWARD...SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD STABILIZE THINGS BY
SUNDAY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND RELATED TROUGH CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
KOROR AND YAP THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEUTRAL AREA BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION OVER MINDANAO
AND THE ONE NEAR CHUUK WILL PROMOTE A DRY REGIME ACROSS BOTH
LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS ARE TRANSFORMING THE
CIRCULATION NEAR CHUUK INTO A WEAK MONSOONAL SYSTEM OVER THE
PHILIPPINE SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...SHOWERY
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/SIMPSON/DEVITA





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