Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 020727 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
527 PM CHST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PREVAIL OVER THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE
EVIDENT ON LATEST WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSIT THE MARIANAS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING OFF AND ON SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS. RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND WILL DO LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE
THE DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS GUAM OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. THE KBDI CONTINUES A SLOW RISE IN
THE EXTREME CATEGORY AND IS NOW AT 764. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE A BIT LATER IN THE WEEK. IF THIS OCCURS WITHOUT A WETTING
RAIN...FIRE WEATHER COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN AN
EAST-WEST BAND ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN MICRONESIA...BUT MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST LOCATIONS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN THIS
PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BRING THE BAND OF CONVECTION FAR
ENOUGH NORTH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. BUT MAJURO REMAINS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WELL SOUTH OF PALAU AND YAP...AND
MODELS SHOW THIS PATTERN HOLDING THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED MOISTURE WORKING
NORTHWARD TO PALAU WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BUT YAP REMAINS DRY...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WED-SAT. AT CHUUK...BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF BRING DEEP CONVECTION IN FROM THE EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND
POSSIBLY AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. AFTER THAT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST...BUT LOCALLY
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/MIDDLEBROOKE



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