Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

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FXUS66 KPQR 251102
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
400 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND REMAIN INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES SUN AND AGAIN WED AS A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES LIFT THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDING
FROM OFFSHORE NE INTO WESTERN WA...BRINGING A DRYING NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEPT SOME
CLOUDS IN OVER THE COAST RANGE AND NORTHERN PART OF THE
CASCADES...WITH MARINE CLOUDS LIMITED TO THE N PART OF THE COAST.
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE N PART OF THE AREA...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BREAK
UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR NW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NW ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A PATTERN OF CLOUDS
PUSHING ONTO THE COAST AND INLAND UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA VALLEY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...THEN RETREATING TO THE
COAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS TO WARM SOME TODAY
AND SAT AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AND H8 TEMPS CLIMB. UPPER FLOW
EXPECTED TO BACK TOWARDS THE S OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENING INLAND...WITH MODELS AGREEING ON A SHORTWAVE
LIFTING N SUN. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES SUN AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...PUTTING OUR REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEXT
WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST UP THE RIDGE NEAR OUR
REGION.  MOST OF THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MISS OUR AREA...BUT A
CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
SUNNY AFTERNOONS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
-MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS REGION THIS AM...WITH POCKETS OF CIGS 3000
TO 4000 FT OVER COAST RANGE...COASTAL AREAS FROM KTMK NORTHWARD...
AND AGAINST THE CASCADES. ALSO HAVE AREAS OF CIGS 500 TO 1500 ALONG
THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH 17Z. WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT...VFR WILL
DOMINATE OVER MOST AREAS...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP THROUGH 19Z.

PATCHY SHALLOW FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR THIS AM. WITH LOW
TIDES BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM...WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF LOW IFR/FOG
ON COASTAL BAYS DUE TO WARMER MUDS EXPOSED TO COOLER AIR TIL 8 AM.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TODAY. AREAS OF LOW MVFR TO N AND E OF
KPDX WILL BUILD W AND SW ENOUGH TO BRING CIGS OF 1000 TO 1500 FT
TO KPDX FIELD BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z.                      ROCKEY.
&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PAC WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUE. MEANWHILE...THERMAL LOW PRES
OVER NW CALIF WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT. THIS WILL BRING NORTHERLY
WINDS TO COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTY WINDS S OF CASCADE IN
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MAY HAVE FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THAT AREA
TODAY...BUT GRADIENTS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE YET. APPEARS THAT
THE GUSTS OT 25 TO 30 KT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON.

SEAS HOLDING AT 4 TO 5 FT...BUT BECOME CHOPPY AT 5 TO 7 FT S OF
NEWPORT IN AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS DUE TO GUSTY N WINDS. ROCKEY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS
         UNTIL 6 AM TODAY.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.


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