Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 181729
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...WHICH ARE NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO WILL ONLY AFFECT FAR EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVELS OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
THEN GRADUALLY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE REMAINS OF ODILE ACROSS ARIZONA BESIDES LINGERING
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY THICK CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER...WHICH IS CENTERED OVER
FAR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...IS BRINGING CLEAR SKIES FROM PHOENIX
WESTWARD. AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY
FROM YESTERDAY...BUT THE 12Z PHOENIX SOUNDING WAS A MODESTLY MOIST
1.52 INCHES. VALUES DROP OFF TO AROUND ONE INCH ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND BELOW ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOCUSED OVER GILA
COUNTY AND ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH BEING AIDED BY BEING ON TAIL END OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENT REGION THAT EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER LA
PAZ COUNTY. FURTHER EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO INCREASE CHANCES ACROSS LA PAZ
COUNTY AND TO LOWER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY QUIET NIGHT SO FAR ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY KEEPING PRETTY MUCH
ALL THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ODILE...WHICH IS
JUST NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NOGALES AREA...WELL OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN FACT...MOST OF OUR CWA IS NOW SEEING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PUSHES SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO IS THE
CURRENT MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING...IT BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT IS
KEEPING ALL PRECIP OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA AT THIS TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THINGS APPEAR TO BE DONE WITH ODILE OVER OUR CWA...THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN (PWATS IN THE
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE) AND ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...MAINLY FROM PHOENIX
NORTH AND EAST. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...AND TO NEAR 100 ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SE CA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BRINGING MORE DRY
AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A GOOD CHANCE OF
SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A FEW STORMS WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FCST WILL
INCLUDE SHWRS IN VICINITY OF AIRPORTS WITH GOOD CHANCE OF GUSTY AND
VRBL SURFACE WINDS AND CIGS TO 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS
AFTER DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COULD
SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THESE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD DIE OFF BEFORE
SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE DESERTS WILL SEE A DRYING TREND. DESERT HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. NO MAJOR
WIND EVENTS EXPECTED AT ANY TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS











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