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000
FXUS65 KPSR 040309
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF MINOR WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN ARIZONA. DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWER
DESERT TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF MINOR WEATHER DISTURBANCES...UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AZ...ONE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND A DRIER ONE THURSDAY. MODELS FORECAST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AZ TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER. PRECIP PROBABILITIES ARE 10 PERCENT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ FOR TONIGHT. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE THURSDAY WILL COME
THROUGH DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY
LOWER.

THE ONLY WEATHER PROBLEM WE SEE FOR WEDNESDAY ARE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ALONG COLORADO RIVER...GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THIS COVERED IN FORECASTS.

A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE EARLIER...WITH SOME WIND
INCREASES ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER FOR WED...AND A DOWNGRADE IN
PRECIP POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. NO ADDITIONAL
FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED.


.PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...120 PM MST...

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CA COAST...
CONTINUED TO COVER THE REGION. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS IN THE 40S...
COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA ALLOWING FOR A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT
NLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL DESERTS AND CONFINE
ANY THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF
PHOENIX. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING ELEVATED WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED BY SUNRISE...THERE WILL
AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WE EXPECT LESS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FOG AND IT SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE AS WHAT OCCURRED
THIS MORNING...BUT WE WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR WED MORNING FROM
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. BY AFTERNOON WED WE SHOULD SOME FAIR
WEATHER CU OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY FROM
PHOENIX WESTWARD. WE WILL CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS ZONE 24 WITH THE THREAT ENDING BY EARLY EVENING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES AS THE AIRMASS WARMS
UP A BIT...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

THURSDAY...
A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE CA COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
THROUGH 19Z WED...SCT-BKN CLDS BASED NEAR 9 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND
UNDER 7 KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THROUGH 13Z WED...CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 7 KNOTS. FROM 13Z
WED TO 23Z WED...CLEAR SKIES. INCREASING NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS...
BUT GUSTING TO NEAR 28 KNOTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB/PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO