Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 131241 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
540 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MINOR RELIEF FROM THE UNUSUALLY
WARM CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND LIKELY
STILL ABOVE 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WHILE A PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH IS HELPING TO FLATTEN THE LARGE SCALE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WITH UPPER
HEIGHTS LOWERING TODAY AND INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING TAKING PLACE WE SHOULD KNOCK OFF A COUPLE DEGREES FROM
HIGHS OVER YESTERDAY. HEIGHTS FALL FURTHER ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY PASSES THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER...BUT NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
COOLING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL END UP IN THE MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS WITH STILL RECORD HIGHS IN THE
FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE FORECAST THINKING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE REBUILDS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS
ONLY INCREASE VERY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WE GAIN A FEW
DEGREES OF WARMING WHICH WILL HELP TO MOVE OUR HIGHS INTO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 OVER THE LOWER DESERTS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PHOENIX WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HIT 90 DEGREES...MOST LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WOULD BE THE EARLIEST 90 DEGREE OCCURRENCE ON
RECORD AS THE CURRENT EARLIEST DATE IS FEBRUARY 24.

MODEL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH SHOWING A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH
NEXT THURSDAY WHILE ALSO BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A MOISTURE INCREASE AND A
DECENT AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THURSDAY...BUT ANY RAIN
CHANCES WILL STAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA. SOME
COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE...THOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COOLING
WILL BE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT A COUPLE DAYS AGO. HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO
DROP AROUND FIVE DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S
FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE GFS DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOUTHWESTERLY SUB-TROPICAL FLOW SETTING
UP NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT SHOWING SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE.
MODELS OFTEN SHOW A DRY BIAS THIS FAR OUT...BUT AM NOT QUITE GOING TO
JUMP INTO PUTTING IN RAIN CHANCES...WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER SET OF
MODEL RUNS BEFORE DOING SO. THIS POTENTIAL SET UP MAY BRING A COUPLE
DAYS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LIKELY
NOTHING OF ANY ORGANIZED NATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 8 KNOTS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AT MANY LOWER
ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL HOVER IN THE TEENS ACROSS ALL
DISTRICTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON BREEZES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD /YEAR/  | FCST | RECORD /YEAR/

SAT FEB 13    86  |   88   / 1957  |  87  |  93    /1957
SUN FEB 14    86  |   85   / 2014  |  87  |  94    /1957
MON FEB 15    87  |   86   / 2014  |  87  |  89    /2014
TUE FEB 16    88  |   84   / 2014  |  87  |  88    /1981
WED FEB 17    90  |   88   / 2014  |  88  |  88    /2014

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS


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