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491
FXUS62 KRAH 241857
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest today, and drift into
central North Carolina tonight. The front will drift slowly
southeast toward the coast Sunday, and offshore Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

Moderately unstable air mass over central NC this afternoon with
temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints near 70-lower
70s. This yields MLCAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range across
the southern Piedmont. Stout mid level flow contributing to
effective bulk shear on the order of 35-40kts. Scattered convection
now occurring across the southern Piedmont and this activity should
continue to expand and intensify through the rest of the afternoon.
Another area of convection will develop over the nw Piedmont just
ahead of the slow moving sfc cold front. This activity will
eventually emerge with the convection across the southern Piedmont
by early evening. Thus plan to have likely PoPs across much of the
western and southern sections through early evening, trending to
small chance across the far northeast. After 00Z, bulk of convection
will likely lie across the southern and eastern sections of the
area, with PoPs diminishing across the northwest.

Main severe weather threat through 02Z will be the potential for
damaging wet microbursts with cells that possess strong updrafts.
Not overly concerned with large hail as freezing level quite high at
16k ft. Still, cells that have rotating updrafts aloft may produce
marginally large hail.

Sfc cold front will enter the nw Piedmont early-mid evening, then
drift slowly se overnight. Expect frontal passage in the vicinity of
KFAY just prior to daybreak. Expect isolated showers to occur in
vicinity of the front through the overnight.

NW flow behind the front will begin to advect drier air into the
region after midnight in the nw Piedmont, and elsewhere by daybreak.
Little change required to the near term forecast. Min temps will
vary from the mid 60s NW to the low-mid 70s SE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Subsidence behind the exiting frontal system and deep wly flow will
lead to stable and drier conditions. A shower or two will be
possible south of Goldsboro-Fayetteville line Sunday morning as the
sfc cold front slowly exits the region. While it will remain warm
Sunday afternoon with temps in the 85-90 degree range, lower
dewpoints will aid to make it feel less oppressive. Drier air will
continue to filter into central NC Sunday night, leading to mostly
clear skies. Min temps 60-65 across the Piedmont to the upper 60s
southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...

A reinforcing dry cold front will move through the area late
Monday/Monday night, ushering in even cooler air into the region.
Highs Monday in advance of the front are expected to be in the 80s,
with highs on Tuesday generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s with
dewpoints in the 50s. A more pronounced mid/upper level disturbance
is expected to move through the area on Tuesday/Tuesday evening. The
GFS and ECMWF still differ on if any showers/storms will develop
across the area with its passage. Given the expected dry airmass in
place in advance of the feature, will limit pops to a slight chances
and only mention showers for Tuesday.

Surface high pressure will move across the area Wednesday and set up
shop offshore Thursday through Saturday. This will result in maximum
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday afternoon in the middle to upper
80s, with upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday and Saturday afternoon.
As the airmass becomes increasingly moist and unstable, the chance
for afternoon and evening convection will return by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday through Thursday/...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across
central NC this afternoon ahead of a cold front. These showers and
storms will cause MVFR/briefly IFR parameters and will affect all
TAF sites primarily between 20Z-01Z. The threat for convection will
decrease in vicinity of the Triad by 01Z, and near KRDU by 02Z. the
possibility of showers and an isolated thunderstorm will persist in
the vicinity of KRWI and KFAY through 07Z.

The cold front will drift sewd across central NC overnight through
Sunday morning. The passage of the front will be noted by the sfc
winds veering from the southwest to a north northwest direction.
Drier air behind the front will lead to improving aviation
conditions.

VFR parameters are expected across central NC Sunday afternoon
through Thursday. The exception will be Tuesday when an upper
disturbance passes overhead, triggering a few showers and possibly
MVFR ceilings.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD/Franklin
AVIATION...WSS