Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 290535
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 912 PM FRIDAY...

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PATCHY AREAS OF
CUMULUS WERE DISSIPATING AND SPREADING OUT INTO STRATOCUMULUS OVER
THE REGION WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THERE WAS ALSO A STREAM OF CIRRUS
RIDING UP FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. MID
EVENING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S INTO THE MID 70S WITH
DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM PA/MD ACROSS NC INTO SC. WINDS WERE
LIGHT. OVERNIGHT... NO MAJOR ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVERHEAD. THE CIRRUS SHOULD TEND TO THIN OUT
AT TIMES REVEALING FAIR SKIES. LOWS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S (INCREDIBLY
COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST) AND ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST... AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD TO
THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT... BEGINNING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY... BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN NC SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE
FORCING OVERSPREADS THIS REGION BEGINNING DURING PEAK HEATING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN (WHERE FORCING IN THE BEST) AND SOUTHERN (WHERE MOISTURE
RECOVERY WILL BE BEST) PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THEN FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN ADDITION ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE LOWER END. ALSO...LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS
SETUP WOULD SUPPRESS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...KEEPING IT PINNED CLOSER
TO THE GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO CHANGE AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES (WITH THE
00Z ECMWF NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES RIDGE).
REGARDLESS...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING...WITH NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY (MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE) POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM SATURDAY...

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC...CAUSING
THE VFR CONDITIONS. A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH BASES ABOVE 10K FEET. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH KFAY AND KRWI SHOULD SEE A PREDOMINATE
EAST-NE SFC WIND LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN
7-10KTS.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION.

THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS IN THE OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...WSS



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