Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 240213
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
913 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure aloft will again build over our region through
Friday. The ridge will shift east and offshore in advance of a cold
front that will cross the area on Saturday. Expect near record
warmth ahead of the front, with cooler temperatures on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 915 PM THURSDAY...

Clear and calm conditions across the forecast area have led to the
beginning of good radiational cooling conditions overnight and into
Friday morning. It will still take some time however for
temperatures to cool to near the dewpoint and start seeing the
emergence of some fog and low stratus. Based on current dewpoint
depressions and high resolution model output, fog will first form in
the east where dewpoint depressions are lowest and then spread
westward throughout the morning. This should begin after 9z in most
locations and continue until just after sunrise, lifting between 13-
14z. Low temperatures will bottom out in the low 50s. No
precipitation is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM THURSDAY...

Strong mid/upper level ridging and associated sinking air will
combine with strengthening southerly return flow and dry soil
conditions to make Friday day two of three of near record warmth
across the region. Low-level thicknesses Friday afternoon are
forecast to be aoa 1380 meters, which is 50 meters above normal and
more representative of late April/early May, as opposed to late
February. Highs should approach 80 in many areas, with mid 70s NW.

Expect another warm night with an increase in mid and high clouds
from the west during the predawn hours as the front progress
eastward in the southern and central Appalachians. Lows in the mid
to upper 50s, which could challenge record hi-min temps(warmest
night).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 PM Thursday...

A cold front will cross the region on Saturday late in the day as a
low pressure system moves into Quebec. Since the frontal passage
will be later, this will allow high temperatures to soar no near 80
degrees in the southeast with low to mid 70s across the NW Piedmont.
Moisture with this system is limited but will be greatest along the
VA border. This is where the most rain could be expected which could
be up to a half of an inch in heavier showers but the majority of
locations will see less than a tenth of an inch. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible along the front as well as there will
be some instability but also a cap in the mid-levels to try to
overcome. Saturday night skies will clear out and the temperature
will drop significantly into the mid 30s to low 40s for overnight
lows.

Sunday and Monday will be mostly dry as surface high pressure moves
over the area with a warming trend for temperatures that will top
out in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees on Sunday but climb back into
the 60-70 degree range on Monday with coolest temps in the NW and
warmest in southeastern counties.

Guidance really begins to break down from Monday night really
through the rest of the period as differences in timing and
intensity of several systems affect the forecast next week. In
general, two systems are expected to move across the area, the first
a southern stream wave that develops into a low pressure system.
Second will be a low over the plains that drags a cold front across
the area near the end of the work week. As a result must keep rain
chances in the forecast from Monday night onward through Thursday
but wouldn`t expect it to rain that entire time. Instead expect one
shot of rain and potentially thunder midweek and a second near the
end of the week. Future model runs will iron out these differences
to give a clearer picture over the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday through Tuesday/...
As of 700 PM Thursday...

Confidence is high in a few-hour-long period of IFR or LIFR
conditions tonight into Fri morning, however the precise timing of
stratus/fog development is in question. The lack of high clouds
favoring good radiational cooling, the weak surface winds, and the
increasing low level moisture will all foster formation of low
clouds and fog later tonight. Our best estimate, based on latest
model trends, is that we`ll see IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys develop at RWI
by 08z, at FAY by 09z, at RDU by 10z, and at INT/GSO by 11Z. These
sub-VFR conditions are likely to lift gradually to VFR between 13z
and 14z, with VFR cigs possible during the afternoon. Surface winds
will be calm or light/variable tonight, becoming from the S or SSW
under 8 kts Fri.

Looking beyond 00z Sat, VFR conditions should hold through Fri
evening, but once again sub-VFR stratus/fog are expected to form
across central NC late Fri night, most likely after 08z, and these
should trend to VFR before 14z Sat. A few showers and isolated
storms are possible Sat afternoon, mainly INT/GSO/RDU, as a cold
front crosses the area, however VFR conditions will dominate. VFR
conditions will return Sat night, lasting through at least Mon as
high pressure builds into and over the region. The chance for sub-
VFR conditions and a few showers will return Mon night into Tue as a
warm front shifts northward through the area. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures

      February 23rd         February 24th        February 25th

GSO      73/1980                79/1982             81/1930
RDU      79/1980                81/1982             82/1930
FAY      80/1922                83/1930             85/1930

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...Ellis
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Ellis
AVIATION...Hartfield
CLIMATE...RAH


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