Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 240726

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
325 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

An area of high pressure aloft will extend across the region through
Tuesday, bringing a period of hot and humid conditions to central NC.
Chances for afternoon convection will increase by the later half of
the work week.


.Near Term /through Tonight/...
As of 325 AM Sunday...

An expansive area of high pressure across the southern half of
the U.S. will build east across the Carolinas today. The rising
heights and associated arming aloft will inhibit convective
development across much of central NC. An isolated storm cannot be
ruled out in vicinity of Sampson and Wayne counties associated with
an inland moving seabreeze, or over our far western-nw
periphery from any convection that drifts off the higher terrain.

Low level thicknesses today projected to be 7-8m warmer than
Saturday, supportive of high temps 2-3 degrees warmer.This suggest
high temps solidly in the mid-upper 90s. Heat index values this
afternoon will flirt with the 105 degree mark. Plan to maintain
current advisory as is, and not expand westward.

Tonight, warm and muggy conditions will persist with overnight temps
only cooling into the upper 70s after 2 AM.


.SHORT TERM /Monday through Tuesday night/...
As of 325 AM Sunday...

Little change anticipated for Monday as upper high expected to
remain overhead. The continued warming of the atmosphere will
maintain decent cap, inhibiting convective development. Max temps
comparable to today, in the mid-upper 90s.
May need another heat advisory, primarily for locations in the
sandhills and coastal plain, dependent upon sfc dewpoints mix out
in the afternoon.

Tuesday, a minor s/w approaching from the west will weaken the upper
high overhead. This lowering of heights, the approach of the slightly
cooler air aloft associated with the s/w, and a sfc tough over the
Piedmont may be enough to allow for the development of isolated-
scattered afternoon convection, mainly north of the I-40/85 corridor
late Tuesday afternoon-evening. Elsewhere, isolated convection
expected. While there will be more clouds over the north, enough
sun will occur to warm temperatures into the mid 90s with heat index
values in the 98-103 range.

Continued very warm and muggy both Monday night and Tuesday night.
Temperatures will likely not cool below 80 degrees until 2 AM or
later, with early morning temps starting out in the mid-upper 70s.


As of 250 AM Sunday...

Medium range models continue to be in general agreement depicting a
mid/upper level ridge located just to our southeast, extending into
our region some to start the period, with a general trough to our
north. At the surface a weak remnant cold front/surface trough is
forecast to sink a bit further southward on Wednesday and help to
focus scattered to numerous showers and storms across central NC,
with locations across the north standing the best chance of seeing
convection (closer to the actual boundary where better coverage is
expected). Given this and central NC on the southern fringe of the
better westerly mid level flow (maybe around 20-25 kts at 500 mb
across the north) we may see some multi-cell clusters of storms.
Given this and expected mlcape values of around 1500 J/KG or higher
during the afternoon into the evening and expected frontal zone
placement we may see a better chance for severe storms on Wednesday
than past days (especially across the northern half of the area).
Though hard to time disturbances/mcv`s from upstream convection can
and will have and impact on the eventual convective chances and
placement. High temps on Wednesday are again expected to be above
normal despite increasing chances for storms. Expect high temps to
range from the lower 90s north to the mid to even upper 90s south,
with heat index values from around 100 north to around 103-105
degrees southeast. Lows Wednesday night are expected to generally be
in the mid 70s.

A general broad trough is expected to develop across our area and
points northward as the mid level ridge is forecast to be suppressed
a bit further south late week into the weekend. This should lead to
scattered showers and storms each afternoon/evening, with more in
the way of isolated showers and storms generally expected during the
overnight/morning hours. However, with a lack of any airmass change
we should still remain hot an humid through the period, with the
possibility of heat advisories needed thanks to the number of days
with heat index values of 100+ across the eastern/southeastern
portions of the area. Highs are generally expected to be in the
lower to mid 90s with lows in the mid 70s.


.Aviation /06Z Sunday through Thursday/...
As of 210 AM Sunday...

High probability that VFR conditions will persist across central NC
through Monday as an area of high pressure aloft strengthens

There is a good probability that VFR conditions will persist through
mid-week. Chances for afternoon-evening scattered convection will
increase the later half of the work week, along with the possibility
of early morning fog and low clouds.


Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ010-011-



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