Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 011024
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
625 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS... WESTERN VIRGINIA... AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST INTO THE
PIEDMONT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY... AS
THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE NOW ANALYZED ACROSS SE NC FROM THE ERN
SANDHILLS TO THE CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE WITH
ONLY MINOR WAVERING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO WRN/NRN NC
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND... ACCOMPANIED BY ANOMALOUSLY LOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MID LEVEL DRY/STABLE AIR THAT WILL INHIBIT
CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CWA... WHERE LINGERING HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F) AND PW VALUES CLOSER TO NORMAL NEAR THE FRONTAL
ZONE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... OUTSIDE OF SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY...
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED BY THE LACK OF DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT... LACK OF INSTABILITY... AND LIMITED MOISTURE
OVERALL. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE AFTERNOON POP BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY ROUGHLY SE OF A LINE FROM LAURINBURG TO TARBORO. THICKNESSES
AND TRENDS OF GUIDANCE INDICATE HIGHS OF 90-95 BOTH DAYS. LOWS IN
THE MID 60S NW TO AROUND 70 SE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS AND EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LOW AND REFLECTED SURFACE LOW WILL RESIDE
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE TO THE
AREA WHILE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SKIRT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...REMAINING MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN BUT MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE VERY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES.
A SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE MID 90S WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE NW PIEDMONT
TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: FORECAST BECOMES LESS CONFIDENT ON
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE AREA THAT HELPS TO
CAUSE A SOUTHWARD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A
STRONG WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BUT THE ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH THE
FEATURE AND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THUS
THE ECMWF LENDS TO A LITTLE GREATER FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL NC FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE ATLANTIC IS CENTERED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ECMWF AS WELL
AND ALLOWS A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN LOW TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SERVE AS A
CATALYST FOR CONVECTION. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN EASTERN
COUNTIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: WITH UNCERTAINTIES ALREADY BUILT INTO
WEDNESDAYS FORECAST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ONLY BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TO THE
WEST...THE VERY LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH
THE TIMING OF THE GFS FOR A THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PASSAGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE...GFS SOLUTION STILL SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OF THE ECMWF.
REGARDLESS...MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BACK OVER 2 INCHES.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WITH MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL BEFORE THE WAVE FINALLY EXITS THE COAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EXTRA CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK AT LEAST INTO THE LOW 90S IF NOT UPPER 80S BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH ONE BRIEF EXCEPTION. THE LINGERING FRONTAL
ZONE AND ACCOMPANYING HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR RWI WILL BRING A
CONTINUED RISK OF MVFR/IFR FOG AND/OR PATCHY STRATUS EARLY THIS
MORNING... BEFORE 13Z. RAIN CHANCES ARE NEAR ZERO AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI
TODAY... AND ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AT MOST IS EXPECTED
NEAR FAY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE LIGHT...
GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS AND NEARLY CALM THROUGH DAYBREAK AND AGAIN
STARTING THIS EVENING... VARIABLE IN DIRECTION EXCEPT MAINLY FROM
THE WNW AT INT/GSO.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SUN MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE FRONT ACROSS SE NC WILL DRIFT NW INTO THE
PIEDMONT AND DISSIPATE MONDAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIR
MASS HOLDS OVER THE REGION. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW
THROUGH TUE... RISING A BIT WED BUT REMAINING LOW. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD


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