Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 200950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
250 AM PDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Warming and drying conditions are anticipated the remainder of
the week with high temperatures reaching 5 to 10 degrees above
average. Cooler weather and precipitation look to return the early
part of next week. Winds will be light through Friday, with
southwest breezes increasing Saturday and especially Sunday.


.Short Term...
No significant changes made to the near term forecast this morning.

Ridge continues to build across the southwest and will maintain dry
conditions and relatively light winds for the Sierra and western
Nevada. Warming trend will continue through Saturday when high
temperatures will be around 10 degrees above average. Western Nevada
valleys can expect highs in the 70s while the Sierra valleys will be
in the 60s. While high temperatures will be above average, the
overnight lows will remain cool with only a very slight upward trend
in the low temperatures each night. Leftover low level moisture from
the storms this weekend will allow for fog to develop again tonight
in the Sierra and Martis Valleys.

Winds will be relatively light through at least Friday before we
start to see an increase in the winds for Saturday and Sunday
afternoons. A large trough dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will
bring about a more active weather pattern for the upcoming week for
California and Nevada. -Edan

.LONG TERM...Next week
Made a few small changes to the long term as the models are in a
little better agreement this morning. GFS/EC and ensembles are
overall showing a more consolidated trough for Monday/Tuesday then
a splitting system for later in the week. Main adjustments were to
adjust precip chances to better focus on Tuesday and to raise snow
levels slightly. Temps for the period will be warmest Sunday then
cooling to near average for the week.

Sunday still looks dry ahead of the system with increasing wind,
but it will just be locally breezy. Monday, the trough deepens
offshore with a couple weakening waves moving through. Precip
chances are different between all the models, so didn`t change
much other than to decrease them slightly. The overall trend is
drier as the trough deepens offshore and the brunt of the waves
move into Oregon.

Tuesday the trough looks to move onshore with what looks to be the
best chance of rain/snow. This may change in future runs, but
increased the pops a bit from Tahoe north in the Sierra. Snow
levels with this wave overall look to be somewhat high, averaging
7000-8500 feet from north to south. Winds will continue to be
gusty at times both days, but they do not look especially strong
at this time.

After that trough moves through and weakens, another drops in off
the coast. This one is expected to split more and the question
becomes whether the band of moisture moves far enough inland for
precip or it remains offshore/north as the system splits. Kept in
slight chance pops for now.

VFR with light winds today except for some FZFG near KTRK through
17Z this morning. Some breezy afternoon winds Friday with peak
gusts Friday to 25-30 kts from the SW and some lgt-mod mtn wave
turbulence. Similar conditions Saturday before stronger winds
possible Sunday into next week. Some precip also possible at times
next week with a reduction in CIGS/VIS.

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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