Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 010953
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
153 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA TODAY WILL WEAKEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE OREGON BORDER BOTH DAYS WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN AGAIN FOR MIDWEEK WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. A WARM PACIFIC STORM MAY AFFECT NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE RIDGE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA REMAINS WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE PACIFIC JET MOVES INTO OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, MAINLY TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS THE PACIFIC
JET NOSES INTO OREGON AHEAD OF A BIG LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TONIGHT, MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AT
LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 50. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THERE. IT WILL BE DRY ELSEWHERE, BUT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECT
TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS.

AS A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE INTO OREGON MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
THE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH
OF A SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THERE.
TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN MILD AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 7500 OR
HIGHER SO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THAT FAR NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH,
THE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA BOTH DAYS AND 50S IN THE SIERRA. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT BUT COULD BE LOCALLY GUSTY IN THE
SURPRISE VALLEY. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BE OUR DAY WITH THE MOST SUN. INVERSIONS WILL
BE SHALLOW AND WEAK WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING TO PUSH TEMPS UP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THU-SAT AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHES INTO NORTHERN
CA-OREGON. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP JET AXIS NORTH OF REGION WITH
ENSEMBLE QPF MEMBERS POINTING THE BEST RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
POTENTIAL AT THE CASCADES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME IS BROAD
AND WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. HOWEVER, FORCING IS GOING TO BE
LIMITED MAINLY TO THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD AS JET SAGS SOUTHWARD
FRI-SAT. JET DOES WEAKEN AND OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
OF JET AXIS. SO WHILE THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH WITH LIMITED HELP FOR OUR HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWPACK. THE ECMWF IS THE COLDEST OF THE MODELS AND COULD
BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN A BIT MORE. WE BUMPED POPS UP ALONG THE CREST
ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ENOUGH THAT AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THOSE AREAS.
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRI-SAT AS RIDGE WINDS INCREASE
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TO AROUND WEST
10-15KT NEAR RIDGE LEVEL. RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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