Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 020936
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
236 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CLOUD COVER FROM YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF 2AM, THE RENO-TAHOE
AIRPORT IS CURRENTLY REPORTING A TEMPERATURE OF 78 DEGREES WITH A
DEWPOINT OF 51 DEGREES...BALMY BY NEVADA STANDARDS. THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, ACTING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER AND DELAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS WARMER
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TODAY BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP THINGS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS SUCH, HAVE CANCELLED
THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN
AND RANGE.

THIS AFTERNOON`S STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PLAY OUT SIMILAR TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SIERRA MAINLY THROUGH
MONO AND ALPINE COUNTIES. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE FOR TODAY WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHICH
MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS BETTER CHANCES FROM PERSHING THROUGH MINERAL
COUNTIES TODAY AS A RESULT AND HAVE INCREASED STORM CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING.

WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT
THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE, INCREASED INSTABILITY, AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY BE OF MORE CONCERN FOR SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE LIMITING FACTORS ARE CLOUD COVER AND ORGANIZED FORCING ALOFT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATED A FEW VORTICITY IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS THE
SIERRA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A PRIMED ATMOSPHERE WITH EXTERNAL
FORCING MAY PRESENT A MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT AND A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS A POSSIBILITY FOR THIS WEEKEND. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY SHOULD KEEP UPDATED
ON THE FORECAST AS THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING,
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING, AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE MORE
MORE VERY ACTIVE DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE SLOW DRYING BEGINS.
GFS/EC ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST MOVING CLOSER
TO THE COAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A MORE S-SW FLOW DEVELOPS
BRINGING IN DRY AIR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND AN AFTERNOON ZEPHYR,
STRONGER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

STILL EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE MONDAY, BUT IT APPEARS A
LITTLE MORE STABLE WITH LESS MOISTURE SO STORMS SHOULD BE FEWER THAN
WHAT WE SEE OVER THE WEEKEND. MORE DRYING TUESDAY, BUT BOTH MODELS
STILL SHOW A BIT OF A THREAT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED ZEPHYR IN THE AFTERNOON, BELIEVE AREAS AROUND TAHOE WILL
REMAIN DRY. CONTINUED WITH THE DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE
EC IS SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST SLOWING AND MOVING SOUTH.
THIS WOULD KEEP THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA UNDER THE THREAT FOR
MORE ISOLATED TSTORMS. WILL LEAVE IT OUT SINCE THIS IS A CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE EC ENSEMBLE PATTERN SUPPORTS MORE DRYING.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL. WALLMANN


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY FM 20-04Z. CHANCE
FOR IMPACT 40 PCT AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND
20-25 PCT ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SMALL HAIL
WITH DRIER MID-LEVELS. MOISTURE INCREASES SAT-SUN WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
STORMS DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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