Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 052045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

The upper low pressure across northern Mexico will continue to
slide northeastward and open as a wave as it nears the Gulf
States later tonight. A surface low is currently near the mouth
of the Sabine River on the LA/TX border. This low pressure will
slide east of our area late tonight and into Tuesday. Guidance is
still trending more and more eastward with the shield of rainfall.
The best shot of rain will generally be east of Highway 65 and
south of Highway 60 corridors starting tonight.

Rain should come to an end from southwest to northeast as the
surface low and parent wave push into the central Appalachians by
noon Tuesday. An arctic frontal boundary will then begin to move
into our area late in the day on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Overall, the snow chances have decreased for Wednesday, at least
the accumulating snowfall chances. All models have trended much
drier than 24 hours ago as the very dry Arctic air mass settles
into the region Wednesday and into Thursday. Still, enough
synoptic lift in association of a fairly robust mid level wave
will generate some snow shower activity across the area Wednesday
afternoon through Wednesday evening. Current thinking is the best
shot of very minor accumulation would be along and north of the
I44 corridor with little if any elsewhere.

Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be much below average
with many locations not warming above the freezing mark. Overnight
lows will drop off down into the lower 10s. Wind chill values from
late Wednesday through Friday morning by drop as low as the single
digits at times.

Some improvement on Saturday is anticipated as many of us warm
back into the 40s. Seasonably cool temperatures are expected
through this weekend and into early next week. There will also be
a system or two that will try and push through the CWA late this
weekend and into early next week, but confidence is low at the
moment as models are disagreeing on timing and even the strength
of each wave.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A fast moving disturbance will move
through the lower MS Vly during the taf period. MVFR/IFR ceilings
and/or visibility are expected to develop toward 06z at KSGF and
KBBG. KJLN will see smaller chances for rain and will not hit the
lower flight categories as hard.




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