Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 191136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
536 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

...Update to Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

An upper level trough is currently digging south across the west
coast early this morning. The trough will continue to dig south
today then will start to move to the east tonight. Ahead of the
trough southwest flow has developed across the region, helping to
usher increased moisture in to the area. Lift is starting to
spread into the area. In this lift showers and some storms have
developed north of the area across northern Missouri early this
morning, this activity should continue to spread off to the northeast.
Additional showers are beginning to develop across northern
Arkansas into south central Missouri early this morning. This
activity will continue to develop and spread north across the area
this morning, with showers occurring at times into tonight. There
is also enough instability that a few storms will also develop
today at times but no severe weather is expected but small hail
will be possible with a few of the stronger storms.

Gusty southerly winds will also occur today, with the strongest
winds expected this morning across extreme southeastern Kansas and
the western Missouri Ozarks. Winds of 25 to 25 mph with gust up
to 45 mph will be possible this morning. A Windy Advisory is in
effect until noon today for the western portions of the forecast
area. Winds will weaken slightly this afternoon, but will remain
on the breezy side into tonight.

Warm conditions will occur today despite cloudy skies as highs
will warm to around the 70 degree mark. Lows tonight will not cool
all that much as they remain in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

As the upper level trough starts to spread to the east a cold
front sags southeast into the area on Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Lift will increase along the front and wide spread rainfall will
develop along and behind the front, a few storms will also remain
possible along and ahead of the front. 1 to 3" of rainfall with
locally heavier amounts will be possible through Tuesday night
with this system. This rainfall will lead to a limited to elevated
flooding risk Tuesday/Tuesday night.

A shallow cold air mass will spread into the region behind the
front Tuesday afternoon/evening. Temperatures aloft will remain
warm as the trough to the west keeps usher warm air in the mid
levels of the atmosphere. Rainfall will continue behind the front,
and as the colder air filters in the rain will change to freezing
rain Tuesday evening into Wednesday. The front will continue to
sag south during the periods, so the freezing rain will gradually
slide from north to south. Confidence is increasing that a period
of freezing rain will occur Tuesday evening into Wednesday
morning, mainly northwest of a Branson to Eminence line with around
one to two tenthes of an inch of inch accumulations possible in these
areas. If the front/cold air slow their southern movement any,
there could be a small corridor that could see around a quarter
inch or a little more of ice. There could also be a brief period
of sleet as the colder air filters into the region. Lows will drop
into the 20s behind the front Tuesday night.

There should be a brief break in precipitation during the day
Wednesday, then additional precipitation will spread in from the
west Wednesday evening and night. A colder air mass will be in
place as highs only warm into the 30s Wednesday afternoon. A warm
nose will remain over area as the trough remains to the west.
Therefore, additional freezing rain will be possible Wednesday
evening/night. There are some indications that cloud ice may be
limited Wednesday evening and night which would allow more in the
way of freezing drizzle to occur during this time. Ice amounts of
a few hundredths of an inch will be possible Wednesday

Another upper level shortwave trough will spread east towards the
area late this week then through the area this weekend. Another
round of more widespread rainfall, and perhaps a few storms, will
develop Thursday night into Friday with yet another round of rain
possible this weekend. This will bring another round of 1 to 3"
of rain to the area and could result in total rainfall amounts
from this morning through Sunday topping out at 2 to 6" with
locally heavy amounts. There are still questions on the exact
timing of this late week/weekends system on the exact timing and
location of rain.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Showers and a few storms have developed across region early this
morning and will affect the TAF sites. The showers and storms
will continue to spread north today, becoming more scattered
nature later this morning into this afternoon. MVFR conditions
will be possible within the showers and IFR ceilings may be
possible with any storm. Additional showers will spread across the
area this evening into tonight, again MVFR ceilings are expected
to develop.

Gusty southerly winds will occur today through tonight. Low level
winds shear will remain a concern this morning and again this
evening and tonight.


MO...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ055-066>069-077>081-

KS...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ073-097-101.



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