Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 300956
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AND STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY...LIFTING ON FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD/EXPAND OVER THE
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...LIMITING THE STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TODAY FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRESENCE OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS...IT
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MANY AREAS IN
PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.

URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. ALSO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OBSERVED WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOFT ON FRIDAY...WHICH MEANS THAT
LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY. THEN A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...FURTHER SUPPRESSING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH
NOT ELIMINATING THEM COMPLETELY.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE ISLANDS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AS WELL AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JSJ...USVI AND
LEEWARD TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER 30/16Z... SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL. THIS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AT
JSJ THROUGH 30/23Z. NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS IN THE MORNING BECOMING
S TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER
GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHERLY SWELL EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  77 /  50  20  50  20
STT  86  78  88  79 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25





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