Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 180442
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
942 PM PDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.Synopsis...
Temperatures cooling to below normal Thursday with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Warmer and drier weather returns for
the weekend.

&&
.Discussion...
The low has spread some light rain along the northern coastal
range this evening. As it transitions inland late tonight and early
morning the amount of chances of light showers will develop over
the remainder of the interior. Unfortunately the models are not
indicating any precipitation over the Kings wildfire area again
this evening but do show some light amounts of precipitation over
the far northern fires in California. Instability looks the greatest
Thursday afternoon over the mountains. Isolated thunderstorms
may be possible as the system moves through with scattered
light showers...mainly for the mountains but some local showers
and sprinkles will be possible for the valley. The best chance
within the valley will be late tonight and early Thursday morning.

Temperatures will be cooler. Instability over the valley does not
look to good with the evening model runs for producing
thunderstorms.

The center of the low will move along the central coast for
Friday. Instability looks greatest over the sierra Nevada
mountains at this time. This might bring a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms south of Tahoe for the afternoon and
evening hours. Winds will be shifting northerly and temperatures
in the valley will be rebounding closer to seasonal normals.

The interesting thing for Thursday night and Friday morning will
be with the spread of the smoke from the King Wildfire. Places in
the southern motherlode that have had pretty good air quality will
have smoke spread over their area. The far eastern sections of the
Northern San Joaquin valley may also get some smoke. The
Sacramento region can also expect and increase in smoke during
that time period as well.

Saturday the low will shift over Southern California. Some
afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms near the crest will
continue for areas south of Tahoe. The flow pattern will shift
again to onshore, upvalley and upslope. Temperatures will remain
near seasonal normals.
&&

.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)

Interesting long term forecast towards mid week. Early in the week
no strong synoptic features in place but toward day 7 and 8...both
ECMWF and GFS are now bringing in a large trough into Pacific
Northwest. ECMWF is wetter and more agressive at this point. Given
the better agreement of the operational models at this point seems
appropriate to insert to have at least a 20 percent chance of
moisture...mostly in northern zones...but still alot of
uncertainity with this system...thus pops closer to climotology
make more sense than dry. Rasch


&&

.Aviation...

Mainly VFR conditions next 24 hours with showers possible over
western Shasta County and Coastal range and spreading SE over
valley and into Sierra late tonight and Thu morning. Local SWerly surface
wind gusts up to 35 to 45 kts possible over higher mountain peaks
overnight.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$






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