Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 041615
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
815 AM PST Wed Mar 4 2015
Warm and dry weather will continue the next 7 days, with a
possible return to unsettled weather for the middle of next week.
A strong ridge of high pressure persists over the eastern Pacific
today, with dry northerly flow aloft over California. Winds are
light across the Valley floor, although some locally breezy
conditions are being observed along the midslopes. The combination
of light winds and clear skies allowed for strong radiational
cooling overnight, with many Valley locations dropping into the
Very little weather to speak of the next several days. The
aforementioned ridge of high pressure will move toward Northern
California, forming a closed upper high by Friday. This should
lead to a gradual warming trend across the forecast area.
Temperatures in the upper 60s today will warm into the 70s Friday
and into the weekend across the Valley. Average highs in the
Valley for this time of year are in the mid 60s, so we`ll be
roughly 5 to 15 degrees warmer than normal by this weekend.
We may see a few patches of fog develop over the next several
mornings, particularly along the northern San Joaquin Valley.
However, with longer days and more direct sunlight this time of
year, it`s getting to be more unlikely to see more widespread fog
.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)
Unseasonably warm and dry conditions continue through Monday as a
blocking ridge remains over California. The ridge axis finally
moves into inter-mountain west Monday night/Tuesday. The main
trough looks like it will move in late Wednesday into Thursday
with a diffluent pattern providing good lift over NorCal.
These ridge patterns seem to be stubborn about leaving the west
coast area. The past few days have hinted at progressing this
trough into the west coast, but the models have since delayed the
timing of first significant impact from Tuesday to Wednesday.
This would likely start as a relatively mild system with high
snow levels, then potentially impacting pass levels. Although the
Low/trough still looks promising to bring some rain, the timing
may shift. JClapp
Mainly VFR SKC conditions across the interior into Thu...although
mountain valley fog possible developing overnight and into the
morning hours. Localized NE winds gusting to around 25 kt over
Sierra weakening aft 18z-20z today...otherwise light pressure
gradients and light winds at TAF sites. Weaker Ely gradient Thu
morning...thus localized Siernev wind gusts only up to 15-20 kts.