Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 020400

900 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 2015

Cooler weather continues tonight along with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly over the northern mountains. Temperatures
warm back to around average for early June by mid-week. Local shower
and thunderstorm chances will persist through Wednesday over the
northern mountains. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms
will develop by the end of the week.


Showers continue over the far north end of the valley and
mountains. So far Redding Airport has gotten (.51) inches of
rainfall. The trough over the Pacific Northwest will lift
northward a little overnight and activity should die off for most
places other than a few showers over the mountains in Shasta
County. Cyclonic flow continues on Tuesday and a few showers may
develop over the far northern parts of Shasta County and places to
the north.

Another trough will deepen on Wednesday and Wednesday evening off
the northwest coast to increase some shower chances over the
northern mountains.  As the trough deepens over the area and
becomes centered off the Bay Area shower and thunderstorms chances
will increase Thursday afternoon over the mountains and Northern
Sacramento Valley.

Temperatures look to remain in the 80s for the valley and mainly
60s and 70s for the foothills and mountains through Thursday.


.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Models in decent agreement that upper level wave will drop
southward across CA and close off near the SoCal coast by Friday.
Closed low is then progged to spin across the state into early
next week. Latest model runs, and GFS most aggressively so, hinting
at subtropical moisture tap and decent instability with this system which
would be enough to generate daily convection. GFS ensembles
showing PWATS in excess of 1 inch which is above 99th percentile
for this time of year. Highest chances for now look to be across
the mountains as typical with this sort of pattern, but might even
be enough for showers and thunderstorms across portions of the
valley at some point during the period. Confidence in this
occurring is fairly low at this point but will definitely be
something to watch as system is better resolved. Depending on the low
position, could see some locally heavy rainfall amounts.
Temperatures will cool a few degrees from Friday to the weekend
and will hinge on resulting cloud and precip coverage but will
generally be close to normal. CEO



VFR conditions expected for most of the period. A few showers
possible across northern mountains/valley this afternoon and
evening with brief periods of MVFR cigs possible. Coverage will be
highly scattered. Marine layer has mixed out from this morning,
but still may see some stratus filter from the Delta into the Valley
(mainly SAC and MHR) early Tuesday morning with brief period of
MVFR cigs possible. Winds tonight and Tuesday will generally be
below 10 kts.


.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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