Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 042127
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
227 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CALIFORNIA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
4-CORNERS AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. VERY MOIST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
HAIL.THE FLOW IS STILL SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT STORMS TO
STAY NEAR THE CREST INTO THE EVENING. CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WITH
ANY STRONG STORMS THAT FORM AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DELTA BREEZE CONTINUES BUT HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE BUT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING. MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST HAS
INCREASED TO AROUND 1600 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
DECENT DELTA BREEZES CONTINUING ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR HIGHER
ELEVATION MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
CHANCES DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OFF THE COAST MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND ADJUST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LOW AS IT APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. TODAY`S GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
KEEP THE TREND OF SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN, WITH THE SYSTEM NOW
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NEXT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. REGARDLESS OF
TIMING, MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND, WITH A PERIOD OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

DANG

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR/IFR
NEAR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 04Z. COASTAL STRATUS LIKELY TO
RETURN TO DELTA REGION TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KT IN THE SAC
VALLEY (NW IN THE SAN JOAQUIN) WILL CONTINUE, WITH SW WIND GUSTS
20-30 KT NEAR THE DELTA.

DANG

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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