Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 122300
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
300 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather through early next week with well above
normal temperatures. Wetter and cooler weather pattern expected
middle to latter portion of next week.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
High amplitude ridging near 110 W as short wave trof pushes into
the PacNW. Associated frontal system extends southwest into the
EPAC with considerable amounts of CI/CS streaming into Interior
NorCal. Baroclinic zone undergoing frontolysis as it moves
inland. 88-D Mosaic showing a few afternoon light showers along
the far NW CA coast/coastal interior but no returns farther
inland. Variable mid to high level clouds will continue to move
through the area tonight and will help to limit valley fog
development. However, likely to see some patchy development again
late tonight/tomorrow morning from the Southern Sac to Northern
San Joaquin valley.

Heights and thicknesses progged to increase over the weekend as
upper ridge amplifies off the West Coast. High temperatures
forecast mainly in the lower 70s Saturday for the Central Valley,
which is upwards of 10 to 12 degrees above normal and at record
values for KSAC/KSCK. Some short lived patchy morning valley fog
will continue to be possible over the weekend from Sacramento
southward.

Another weak weather system rides over the ridge Sunday with some
light overrunning precip possible into far northern portions of
CA. However associated precip continues to be modeled north of
our forecast area. Surface high pressure building through Oregon
into the Great Basin will result in some locally breezy northerly
wind from Sunday afternoon into Monday. High temps expected to
slowly trend up over the weekend into Monday. Max Ts in the
Central Valley expected in the mid to upper 70s Sun/Mon with
readings continuing right around record values for the Sacramento
and Stockton areas.

PCH


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)

Conditions will remain dry through Tuesday. On Wednesday, NorCal
transitions into a wet pattern as a trough impacts the west coast.
Both the GFS & ECMWF models agree that this storm will start
impacting our region by Wednesday evening. However, the challenge
with this system is that the models disagree on the details. The
GFS shows a quickly moving trough that weakens by Thursday
morning and puts our region back into a dry, ridging pattern by
Thursday afternoon/evening. The ECMWF indicates a stronger,
wetter trough that keeps a threat of precipitation in our CWA
through Thursday evening. Have medium confidence that interior
NorCal will get light to moderate rain/snow Wednesday evening into
Thursday afternoon with snow levels around 5000 ft.

The models continue to diverge on Friday with the GFS maintaining
a dry ridge while the ECMWF brings in another wave of
precipitation that impacts area north of Interstate 80. Confidence
is lower, but have kept lingering chances of precipitation
through Friday until models come into better agreement.

JBB

&&

.AVIATION...

SWly flow alf vrg to NWly Sat. Vrbl clds AOA FL120 for Intr NorCal
nxt 24 hrs with VFR conds exc isold MVFR/IFR/LIFR poss in Srn
Sac/Nrn San Joaquin vlys in BR/FG btwn 10z-18z Sat.
&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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