Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 251038 CCA
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
335 AM PDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather pattern with near normal temperatures for the rest of
the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (Today THROUGH Sunday)...
A short wave currently over southern Oregon, which is evident in
water vapor imagery, will be dropping south and east into Nevada
today. Considering moisture is limited and the forcing from this
wave is weak, we are not expecting any thunderstorm activity.

Currently, the marine layer is around 1500 ft deep which is
similar to where it was 24 hours ago. This, combined with the
moderate/strong onshore gradient will continue to bring slightly
below normal temperatures for the delta and adjacent areas.
Locations farther away from the delta breeze, such as the Northern
Sacramento Valley, will be up to 5 degrees above normal.

Friday looks to be very similar to today with the exception of
weak instability along the Sierra Crest in Tuolumne County.
Ingredients for a weak isolated thunderstorm look marginal at
best. Because of this, only expect a slight chance (<15%) of
activity in Tuolumne County and southward. Beyond this, dry
weather will prevail with sunny skies. A weak longwave ridge will
build in Saturday and Sunday but will have relatively little
influence on our temperatures. Wilson

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

Model differences continue through the extended period. GFS brings
a stronger minor wave through NorCal first part of next week
followed by deeper main trough midweek. ECMWF is slower with
progression of minor wave and tracks a more southern track with it.
Main upper trough impacts the area through midweek. All solutions
have limited available moisture and forecast looks dry through the
period. Near normal temperatures Monday cool to slightly below
normal through Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...

NWly flow alf with lrg upr trof ovr Intr mtn W. VFR conds for Intr
NorCal nxt 24 hrs exc lcl MVFR/IFR poss in ST vcnty of Delta til
18z. Lcl SWly sfc wnd gsts up to 30 kts poss in Delta til 13z and
agn aft 00z.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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