Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 270021
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
821 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.UPDATE...

Little in the way of changes for tonight. Scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity is remaining confined to the eastern Big
Bend, as well as portions of Berrien and Irwin Counties in Georgia
at this hour. Expect these storms to dissipate over the next
several hours with the loss of daytime heating with any overnight
convection remaining offshore.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [754 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Frontal boundary has passed through all but the southern tip of the
FL Big Bend with northerly surface winds and drier air in the
region. Dewpoints at this hour are in the mid 50s across our SE AL
counties, adjacent FL panhandle counties, and most of SW GA. 70+
dewpoints reside elsewhere. The Gulf coast seabreeze has activated
in the areas of highest moisture but should remain pinned close to
the coast with northerly flow. These storms will be diurnal in
nature with most dissipated around sunset. However, a few may linger
into the evening hours.

Overnight, most locations should experience mostly clear skies
except for near the coast of the Big Bend counties where more clouds
should reside. Lows tonight will be around 70 across our northern
counties to mid 70s close to the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Low level ridging will gradually push eastward over the next couple
of days, shifting the flow from northeasterly to easterly. Residual
moisture will remain over the Big Bend, and easterly flow will
increase the chances of the east coast seabreeze making its way into
our area. North of a line from Valdosta to Panama City, drier air is
in place which will continue to suppress convection for the few
days. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will be in the low
70s.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Weak synoptic forcing and low level anticyclonic development over
the Atlantic are forecasted to bring rain chances into the weekend.
Sea breeze circulations should lead to afternoon thunderstorms
across the CWA with PoPs around 40-50% through the forecast period.
Some rain chances will stick around into the overnight hours with
persistent sea breeze forcing, particularly in the eastern portion
of our area. Near normal high temperatures topping out in the upper
80s and low temperatures in the lower 70s are expected.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...

Convection should remain east of the TAF sites through the
remainder of the evening. Expect afternoon convection again on
Tuesday with the better chances across TLH and VLD. MVFR
cigs/vsbys are possible at VLD in the morning. Winds will be light
overnight.


.MARINE...

A typical summertime pattern will persist with daily chances of
showers and thunderstorms and low winds and seas outside of
thunderstorms.


.FIRE WEATHER...

With RH values above critical thresholds, there are no fire weather
concerns over the next few days.


.HYDROLOGY...

Most of our area rivers have receded in after a round of heavy rain
last week. A few points along the Choctawhatchee River remain in
action stage, but are not expected to rise to flood stage. Scattered
storms will be possible the next few days in the FL Big Bend and
south central GA, but rainfall totals will generally be below an
inch. No flooding is anticipated for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   71  88  71  89  74 /  10  50  20  30  20
Panama City   76  86  75  86  76 /  10  30  20  30  30
Dothan        69  87  71  89  71 /   0  10  10  20  20
Albany        71  88  71  90  71 /  10  20  10  10  10
Valdosta      70  87  70  89  72 /  30  50  20  20  10
Cross City    73  86  71  89  73 /  40  60  30  50  20
Apalachicola  75  84  76  85  77 /  20  40  20  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pullin
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Moore/Patton
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Moore



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