Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 190658
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
258 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The TUTT low currently centered just west of the Florida Keys will
continue to move westward through the period, influencing convection
along its northern periphery. With continued northwesterly flow
across much of the region, convective coverage will remain limited
once again today, with the best chances occurring across the eastern
Big Bend where deep layer moisture is more abundant. Hi-res guidance
continues to indicate a surface boundary lingering across this area,
which would influence higher convective coverage with influences
from the TUTT. Elsewhere, hot temperatures will be the story, as
highs soar into the mid to upper 90s with heat indicies in the 100
to 105 range. Temperatures in the eastern Big Bend will likely range
in the upper 80s to low 90s, depending on the timing of shower and
storm development.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

The upper level low will continue to push westward across our
area and the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and into the
central Gulf on Monday. As this occurs, increasing deep layer
moisture will get pulled northward into our area with
southeasterly flow. PWAT values will rise above 1.5" across
northern FL on Sunday afternoon and evening, and continue
increasing to around 2" on Monday. This will lead to more
widespread chances of showers and thunderstorms on Monday, while
scattered showers & storms will mainly be confined to northern FL
and south central GA on Sunday.

Given the ample moisture on Monday afternoon combined with moderate
instability, cloud cover should become fairly widespread as
scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across our area. As a
result, it may be difficult to see the solar eclipse. However, there
should be breaks in the clouds in some areas, and the decrease in
solar radiation during the peak eclipse time could cause some minor
temperature decreases across our area. As a result of this effect
combined with increasing cloud cover, high temperatures should be a
couple degrees cooler across our area on Monday than on Sunday. Hot
and very humid conditions will still persist each day, resulting in
maximum heat indices near 105 on Sunday and around 100 on Monday.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

As the upper level low that was discussed in the short term
section pushes farther southwest of our area across the Gulf, deep
layer ridging will build across our area through Tuesday and
Wednesday. Ample deep layer moisture will persist throughout this
time, so scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible each
day, with highest chances during peak instability times (afternoon
and early evening hours). Late in the week, an upper level trough
will deepen across the southeastern CONUS, and a surface trough or
weak front should push southeastward across our area on Thursday
and Friday. These features should enhance forcing for showers and
thunderstorms, although some mid-level dry air could limit
precipitation coverage during this time. As a result, kept PoPs
generally in the 40-50% range through this period. Hot and humid
conditions will prevail through this period as well, with apparent
temperatures expected to reach the lower 100s each afternoon due
to highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Sunday]...

MVFR conditions expected through the period, with an exception of a
brief period of light fog at TLH and MVFR CIGS and vsby at VLD prior
to sunrise. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies and light winds expected,
with the chance for iso to sct TSRA in and around the Valdosta area
this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Light and variable winds around 10 knots or less will prevail
through the next several days, resulting in generally light seas
through next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected through much of
the week outside of low dispersions in the FL Big Bend Sunday
afternoon. Chances for wetting rains will become more widespread
early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage next
week, but widespread heavy rain is not anticipated. Therefore, no
flooding is expected and rivers will likely remain below flood
stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   97  75  95  76  91 /  20  10  30  20  30
Panama City   93  78  92  78  89 /  10  20  30  20  40
Dothan        94  74  95  75  90 /   0  10  10  10  40
Albany        96  74  96  75  90 /   0  10  20  10  30
Valdosta      96  73  94  74  90 /  30  20  40  20  40
Cross City    92  74  93  75  90 /  60  30  40  30  30
Apalachicola  94  77  91  78  89 /  30  20  20  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Lahr



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