Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 271953
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
253 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A deep layer ridge will remain in place across the region.
Scattered, mainly light, small showers were developing across
north FL and south GA this afternoon, but will likely dissipate
before reaching the easternmost portions of our forecast area.
This rain will dissipate by sunset. Otherwise, we expect partly
cloudy skies with relatively warm temperatures, with lows in the
mid to upper 50s.
.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The upper ridge along the eastern seaboard will flatten over the
next several days. The strong surface high over the Mid-Atlantic
will weaken as well. This will yield a decrease in the easterly
winds across the forecast area. However, the southern portion of
the upper ridge will remain intact, keeping the weather dry and
temperatures above normal through Sunday night. Expect highs in
the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid 50s.
.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Flat upper ridge will remain in place over the Gulf Coast through
the early part of next week. This will keep the bulk of the
precipitation north of the forecast area with a continuation of
above normal temperatures. Could see an isolated shower or two
across the far northern zones on Tuesday, but the chances are
By Wednesday and Thursday, the ridge will break down allowing the
cold front to push towards the Gulf Coast. Upper short wave will
then dig towards the Gulf Coast, inducing weak cyclogenesis over
the eastern Gulf or just off the east coast of Florida. This
should help to enhance rain chances for the area behind the front.
There is still some disagreement in the guidance as to the timing
and amount of rainfall expected. However, expect rain chances to
be on the increase for Wednesday and Thursday, before diminishing
on Friday. Currently, thunderstorms do not appear very likely
given the post-frontal nature of the precip.
[Through 18Z Saturday] Unlimited cigs/unrestricted Vis will
continue through this evening. The 12z NWP guidance remains in
poor agreement with regards to low cigs and/or fog early Saturday.
From a pattern recognition standpoint, a surface ridge to our
northeast with low- level NE-E winds is usually not conducive for
widespread dense fog; it instead tends to favor a brief period of
low cigs around KVLD around dawn. However, it`s hard to ignore
some of the more reliable guidance (mainly GFS MOS) which is quite
pessimistic at most of our terminals. Our 18z TAF package is a
blend of the various guidance, with a period of MVFR Vis and
scattered low clouds toward daybreak.
While Exercise Caution conditions will linger this evening over
the offshore waters, high pressure centered over the Mid-
Atlantic will gradually weaken through the weekend and allow for
winds and seas to subside.
With no significant rain anticipated through early next week,
there are no flood concerns at this time.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 57 78 55 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 60 75 58 74 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 55 75 53 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 53 75 52 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 55 77 54 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 58 79 56 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 60 74 59 75 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM CST this evening FOR South