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FXUS62 KTAE 111817
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
217 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Scattered convection is starting to develop early this afternoon,
and we expect this trend to continue with gradually increasing
coverage up until sunset. Convection will start to wane after
sunset with most of the area convection free by 11 pm. Seasonal
overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s are expected.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
High pressure aloft builds back across the southeast U.S. in the
wake of an exiting upper level trough. Surface high pressure
centered well to the east over the Atlantic will dominate the
region, allowing for weak onshore flow. Expect seasonable PoPs
each day with afternoon convection driven by the sea breeze. With
very light steering flow, there could be some isolated 2-3"
rainfall amounts each afternoon.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Next week will be a period of transition as a broad trough
associated with an anomalously deep upper level low digs across
the eastern U.S. This will push another cold front through the
southeast U.S. Depending on model choice, the front may not make
it quite through our region, or could possibly sweep through our
area with drier air punching into northern Florida toward the end
of the week. The latter scenario would be extremely rare for July,
but would not rule that possibility out due to the strong
temperature and height anomalies associated with this mid-summer
system. At any rate as the trough digs and the front approaches
the southeast U.S., we should see a couple of days, probably
Tuesday and Wednesday, with widespread showers and thunderstorms
before returning to more seasonable convection.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]
VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon outside of scattered
convection. Some patchy fog could impact DHN, ABY, and VLD late
tonight, but currently not expecting as much as last night. Any
fog that develops late should be brief and dissipate by 13z.

&&

.Marine...
Expect light winds and low seas for the next several days. Ahead
of the cold front that will approach from the north next week,
wind and seas will show some increase beginning Tuesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals through tonight should be less than half an inch.
However, some slow moving thunderstorms could result in localized
higher amounts. River flooding is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  94  73  94  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
Panama City   76  90  75  90  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
Dothan        73  94  73  95  74 /  20  20  10  20  10
Albany        73  94  73  94  74 /  40  20  10  20  10
Valdosta      71  92  71  94  72 /  50  40  20  30  20
Cross City    72  92  71  94  72 /  40  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  74  89  73  89  75 /  20  30  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





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