Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 092051
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
351 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

High pressure situated over the central Plains this afternoon
will shift into the Tennessee Valley tonight. As this occurs,
northerly winds will become more northeast by the morning. Main
focus of the near term is the temperature forecast. MOS guidance
is showing calm winds much of the night and has some of the
coldest forecast temperatures for tonight. Given though that the
center of the high will remain north of the CWA, not convinced the
winds will go completely calm to maximize the lowest temperatures
and thus have continued to trend warmer than MOS guidance but
still on the cooler side of other guidance. Forecast lows for
tonight are in the upper 20s inland to the lower to mid 30s along
the coast. We have ended the freeze warnings for this season so a
freeze warning will not be issued, however, folks should take any
necessary precautions for freezing temperatures such as covering
any sensitive vegetation that is still growing, dressing warmly
and protecting outside pets from the cold.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

As quasi-zonal flow prevails at upper levels, the southern branch
of the upper level jet will gradually move east of our area
through this time. This pattern, combined with the southwestern
portion of a broad surface high residing over our area, will
result in continued dry conditions across most of our area during
the weekend. One exception could be across far western and
northern portions of our CWA, where increasing moisture and
isentropic lift could result in a chance of rain on Sunday night.
Some isolated thunderstorms will also be possible near the FL
Panhandle coast and offshore, as a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE will
build late Sunday night.

Continued cool temperatures are expected Saturday into Saturday
night, with highs mainly in the 50s (with low 60s possible in the
eastern FL Big Bend region) and inland lows in the mid-upper 30s.
Coastal low temperatures in the low-mid 40s are expected. Milder
conditions are expected Sunday into Sunday night as southeasterly
flow develops, bringing highs into the 60s and lower 70s across
our area. Inland lows will only drop into the 50s as cloud cover
increases, with lower 60s forecast along the coast.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

A broad upper level trough is expected to develop over the eastern
half of the CONUS and persist throughout the week, with a very
strong upper jet (up to 190 knots) developing to our north by the
middle of the week over the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic
regions. Moisture will continue to increase to the south of this
feature across our region at the beginning of the period, with
PWAT values of 1.5" or higher possible from Monday through Tuesday
night. Models are also in fairly good agreement that a front will
slide southeastward into our area on Tuesday, enhancing chances of
rain across our area. Some instability will build during this time
as well, with SBCAPE of at least a few hundred J/kg becoming
widespread, peaking around 1000 J/kg Monday and Tuesday afternoon
across northern FL. As a result, isolated thunderstorms are
possible along with a chance of rain throughout this time. 0-6 km
bulk shear of 30-50 kts will be possible as well, so a few strong
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

On Wednesday, the front from earlier in the week will likely
become stationary over our area and weaken/dissipate. However, lingering
moisture and some frontal forcing will result in a continued
chance of showers over our area before a second cold front moves
southeastward through our area on Wednesday night. Little to no
instability is expected, so thunderstorms are not anticipated at
this time. Mild temperatures are expected from Monday through
Wednesday, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s.
After the cold front moves through, much cooler and drier
conditions should return Thursday and Friday, with highs
potentially ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s and lows in
the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Wind gusts
up to 18kts are possible through the afternoon, but will subside by
this evening.

&&

.MARINE...

Northeasterly winds near or slightly above 20 knots will result
in continued small craft advisory conditions through tonight. Seas
will gradually decrease tonight into tomorrow, dropping to 2 to 4
feet for most of the weekend. Easterly winds generally around 15
to 20 knots will become more southeasterly by Sunday, with seas
potentially increasing to 3 to 5 feet during Sunday night. Lighter
winds and seas are anticipated early next week, although chances
of rain and isolated thunderstorms will increase Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry air will linger through the day Saturday, with minimum RH values
briefly dipping below critical levels across the region.
Breezy conditions are expected once again, with northerly winds
reaching or exceeding 15mph from late morning to early evening
Saturday, mainly across southern portions of the Florida big bend
and panhandle. However, high fuel moisture from recent rains will
preclude any red flag fire weather conditions on Saturday. RHs will
increase into the 50s and 60s for Sunday and approach 70 on
Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms are possible from
Monday through Wednesday, which could result in additional
improvements to ongoing drought conditions. Widespread heavy rain
is not anticipated at this time, so flooding should not be a
concern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   29  58  39  69  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   35  56  44  68  61 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        27  53  34  63  53 /   0   0   0   0  30
Albany        28  54  35  65  51 /   0   0   0   0  20
Valdosta      28  57  39  69  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    32  62  42  73  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  35  58  47  68  61 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Lahr



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