Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 021953
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
353 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With the weak remnants of Erika moving away from the area, PoPs will
decrease rapidly across the eastern portions of the area after
sunset tonight with only a slight chance of a lingering shower or
two. Overnight lows are still expected to be fairly muggy in the mid
70s. Some patchy fog is possible as well, mainly across the eastern
half of the area.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The 500 mb high centered over south FL Thursday morning will give
way to a developing trough. This weak, broad trough will be oriented
east to west from the western Atlantic through GA by Saturday
morning. At the surface, a weak low pressure system (the remnants of
Erika) will drift slowly southeastward off the FL east coast. By
Saturday morning a ridge will be building southward along the
Piedmont. Despite a weak short wave trough passing through our
forecast area Thursday, coupled with an increase in deep layer
moisture and weak Q-G forcing, the numerical guidance isn`t
bullish on PoPs. The reason for this may be the prevailing
northwest winds from 1000-700 mb, which would keep the sea breeze
front pinned at the coast for most of the day. Our forecast is a
blend of the dry ECAM and slightly wetter GFS/NAM MOS/other model,
yielding a PoP in the 20-30% range. Our PoP is similar for Friday,
as the mean lower- mid tropospheric wind remains out of the north.
Temperatures will be a bit above average, with lows in the 70s and
highs in the lower to mid 90s.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The 00 UTC GFS and the other model continue to forecast a broad 500
mb trough meandering near or over our forecast area for much of the
long term period. At the surface, a "backdoor" cold front will
translate through our region Saturday, bringing a good chance of
rain, especially later in the day. Much of the period will be
dominated by E-NE winds, with a scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoons and evenings. Temperatures will be near climo,
around 70 for lows and highs near 90. Somewhat drier boundary layer
conditions may make it feel more pleasant early next week.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Thursday] As the weak remnants of Erika move away
from the area, mainly VFR conditions are expected. Some patchy fog
is possible late tonight, especially near VLD where some IFR to
LIFR conditions are expected.

&&

.Marine...

Generally west to northwest winds around 10 KT are expected for the
next few days.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Abundant moisture and light winds will continue to limit fire weather
concerns for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

The rivers remained below their local action stages, and will
likely continue as we do not expect widespread heavy rain for at
least the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  94  75  94  74 /  20  30  20  30  30
Panama City   78  90  78  89  76 /  10  30  20  30  20
Dothan        74  93  73  94  73 /  10  30  20  20  20
Albany        74  93  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  20  20
Valdosta      73  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  30  30
Cross City    76  92  75  92  74 /  20  30  20  40  30
Apalachicola  77  91  78  91  76 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...JACKSON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER


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