Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 072013
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
413 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

CONVECTION WAS FAIRLY SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, THROUGH 20Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE 12Z
TALLAHASSEE SOUNDING WERE ONLY 1.55 (AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY JULY) AND THE RAP SUGGESTS THEY HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED
TO AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES. THE ISOLATED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ARE PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, AND THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND
SUNSET WITH A DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.


.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGING
WILL BRING MORE SEASONAL RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ALONG THE SEABREEZE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES PEAKING AROUND 102 IN THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND MAINLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN TO THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. IT WILL BE HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S. HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY]

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT TLH AND VLD TERMINALS, PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

EXPECT LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS DUE TO SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A GENERAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY OFFER HEAVY RAIN
IN THE SCATTERED STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
ABRUPT RISES OVER OUR MOST SENSITIVE BASINS; BUT THE OVERALL
CHANCE OF ANY PARTICULAR BASIN BEING IMPACTED IS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  94  73  94  74 /  20  30  20  30  10
PANAMA CITY   77  89  76  90  76 /  10  30  10  30  10
DOTHAN        74  95  74  94  73 /  10  20  10  30  10
ALBANY        73  95  74  96  74 /  10  30  10  30  10
VALDOSTA      72  95  73  95  74 /  20  30  20  30  20
CROSS CITY    73  92  72  93  74 /  30  40  20  40  20
APALACHICOLA  77  90  74  90  75 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     FRANKLIN.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP/LAMERS
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...CAMP/LAMERS
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN


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