Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 011924
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
324 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

At the upper levels, a trough was stretched from the Great Lakes
into the central Plains and then into the SW CONUS with multiple
waves in the flow with the overall pattern progressing little
tonight. A frontal boundary this afternoon was stretched from the MS
valley into eastern TX and with very slow movement, will continue to
remain west of the CWA through tonight. The line of thunderstorms
ahead of this front across LA, MS and AL are forecast to once again
diminish before reaching the CWA.

With the southerly flow at the surface ahead of the aforementioned
system, plenty of moisture is being pumped into the area and with
above normal temperatures it almost seems summer-like. Afternoon
convection has been driven off of this and hi-res models are once
again consistent with the best chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the northern half of the CWA. Activity will diminish by late
tonight. Widespread severe storms are not expected, however some
storms could be strong with gusty winds and hail.

Low temperatures continue to remain well above average with most
areas only forecast to drop into the mid 60s overnight.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

An upper-level long wave trough will develop across the eastern
CONUS. At the surface, a a cold front will approach our forecast
area from the northwest Monday afternoon and evening, and move
slowly southeastward across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The highest PoPs (30-40%) on Monday afternoon will be across south
GA and AL, as this area will be closer to stronger forcing and
deeper moisture. Rain is likely across most of our forecast area
on Tuesday as the front moves through and deep layer moisture
peaks. With moderate CAPE (1500 J/kg), high surface dewpoints
(65-70), and marginal 0-6km bulk shear values (30 KT), there
could be some loosely- organized multi-cell clusters, as well as isolated
pulse severe storms Monday afternoon and Tuesday; but so far none
the CAMs are forecasting surrogate severe parameters which "jump
out" as being too worrisome. It will remain hot and humid, though
highs will "only" be in the mid 80s Tuesday afternoon because of
the clouds and rain. Highs Monday will be near 90. Lows each day
will be in the upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

April weather will return despite the calendar progressing through
early May. An anomalously-deep, upper-level long wave trough will
develop over the eastern CONUS Wednesday and Thursday. The
aforementioned surface cold front will exit southeast of our
forecast area on Wednesday, followed by somewhat cooler and much
drier air. The upper level height pattern over the CONUS will be
amplified through next weekend, with very slow progress of the
troughs and ridges. So even though deep-layer ridging (warming)
will begin next weekend, our forecast area will remain under the
subsidence side of the upper level ridge. Lows will be in the 50s,
even around 50 Thursday night. Highs will be in the mid to upper
70s Thursday and Friday, then mid 80s Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...

Mainly VFR conditions this afternoon, with the exception of ECP with
MVFR cigs. The cig heights will continue to improve through the
afternoon though. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible at
the northern TAF sites through the evening, mainly DHN and ABY.

&&

.MARINE...

Light onshore winds will continue through Tuesday as a high pressure
system remains centered over the western Atlantic Ocean. A cold
front will move southeast across the marine area Tuesday and Tuesday
night, followed by increasing winds from the NW and higher seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected through the middle
of the week. Relative humidity values will drop below 30 percent
Thursday and Friday, then begin to increase again heading into the
weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

For the first time in quite a while there were no rivers in "action
stage" across our forecast area. Storm total rainfall amounts
through Wednesday are around half an inch, though isolated amounts
up to 4 inches are possible. The expect lack of widespread heavy
rain means that the rivers will continue to subside.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   67  87  70  84  63 /  10  20  20  50  30
Panama City   69  81  72  78  65 /  10  10  20  50  20
Dothan        67  85  68  80  58 /  30  30  30  50  10
Albany        67  87  68  81  59 /  30  40  30  50  20
Valdosta      67  88  68  84  63 /  20  30  10  60  40
Cross City    67  87  68  84  67 /  10  10  10  30  30
Apalachicola  70  81  72  80  66 /  10  10  10  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Fournier



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