Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 022158
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
257 PM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL START BUILDING OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. MODELS SHOWED THIS SYSTEM ENTERING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING AND TRACKING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THIS STORM ON THURSDAY AND MORE SO FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED FOR THURSDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/00Z.
SKIES GENERALLY SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH FEW CLOUDS 8-12K FT
AGL POSSIBLE. MAINLY SWLY/NWLY WIND THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KTS OR LESS
BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
SWLY/NWLY AGAIN AROUND 10 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT 20-FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
TUCSON BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH
THE CORE OF THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO COCHISE COUNTY
AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON FRIDAY. WE HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 150 AND 151 AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL EASILY
EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH WINDS LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH AS WELL.
THE FUELS ARE A BIT MORE MARGINAL WITH GRASSES THE BIGGEST CONCERN.
THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN AREAS. AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE MOVE IN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZES PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY ZONE
     AZZ150-151

$$

&&

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