Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 022145
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS EVER SO SLOWLY ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN BAND WAS STILL WEST OF TUCSON WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PIMA COUNTY
RANGING IN THE 0.25" TO 1" RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS WERE
PIMA COUNTY NEAR AJO. SNOW LEVEL WAS AROUND 9KFT FROM TUCSON EAST
BUT WILL BE LOWERING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO RELY ON CONVECTIVE BANDS AND
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO GET OUR SNOW TOTALS TO THE ADVISORY AND
WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINS FROM NEAR TUCSON TO THE WHITES
MOUNTAINS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COCHISE COUNTY OUT UNTIL 8 PM.
ALONG THE FRONT WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40-50 MPH. THE UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS OPENED UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVED INTO SRN CA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE
ACROSS NRN AZ TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING AREAWIDE FROM
WEST TO EAST ALTHOUGH AREAS EAST OF TUCSON WILL HOLD ON TO SHOWERS A
BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOW-UP SYSTEM...CURRENTLY BECOMING A CUT-OFF LOW OFF CENTRAL CA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH TO OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TURN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AREA TUE NGT INTO WED BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO BOOST THEM UP A LITTLE MORE. NOT LOOKING AT A BIG QPF EVENT
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WITH UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA
AND WEAK TROFINESS OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING BOTH DAYS.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...REMAINING DRY WITH HIGHS RUNNING 4-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/00Z.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THRU THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2-6K FT AGL WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND
IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING. SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING KTUS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. SFC WINDS SLY
15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT. SKY CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 03/06Z  FROM WEST TO EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS S AND E OF TUCSON...WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER PIMA AND
PINAL COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH SE AZ AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER
THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM MST TUESDAY ABOVE 6500
  FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL TO 1 AM MST TUESDAY ABOVE
  6500 FEET FOR AZZ514.

 WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
  AZZ512>515.

&&

$$

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