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FXXX12 KWNP 291230

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Aug 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate. Region 2403 (S17W77, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta)
produced a pair of M-class flares, an M2/1f flare at 28/1316 UTC and an
M2/1n at 28/1903 UTC. Region 2403 exhibited little change as it rotated
towards the west limb. Region 2405 (S19E27, Cro/beta) grew slightly,
developing a trailer spot with a rudimentary penumbra. A new region of
emerging flux was observed in the NE quadrant and is being monitored for
continued development. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the

Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class (R1-Minor) flares
likely and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) activity on days one
and two (29-30 Aug). Activity is expected to remain low with only a
chance for M-class flares on day three (31 Aug) as 2403 rotates around
the west limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with a peak flux of 257 pfu observed at 28/1625 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux was at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels with a chance for high levels on day one (29 Aug) and
increase to normal to high levels on days two and three (30-31 Aug). A
slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) exists
on days one and two (29-30 Aug) due to flare potential from Region 2403
which is in a well connected magnetic position. The chance for an event
decreases on day three (31 Aug) as Region 2403 rotates around the west

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured by the ACE spacecraft, suggested the
influence of a slow moving transient transitioning to the onset of a
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The period began with mag field
between 10-15 nT. Wind velocities were steady around 340 km/s but began
to slow rise after 28/1400 UTC, peaking between 28/2300 and 29/0000 UTC
around 450 km/s. Total field was began a gradual decline from around 14
nT at 28/2000 UTC to 8 nT by the end of the period. Phi angle was
predominant negative (towards) for the entire period.

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at enhanced levels
through day one (29 Aug) in response to the negative polarity CH HSS.
Solar wind velocities are expected to gradually decrease late on day two
(30 Aug) and into day three (31 Aug) as the effects of the CH begin to


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm (G2-Moderate)
levels during the period in response to the effects of the slow-moving
22 Aug coronal mass ejection (CME).

Minor (G1-minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely early on day
one (29 Aug) in response to the influence of the CH HSS. Day two (30
Aug) is expected to see mostly active conditions as the high speed
stream proper will likely decrease the total field strength of the
interplanetary magnetic field. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
forecast for day three (31 Aug) as the anticipated decrease in wind
speeds from the departing coronal hole further decrease the potential
magnitude of geomagnetic response to the CH HSS. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.