Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
FXXX12 KWNP 290031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Dec 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 2248 (S19E07, Dso/beta) was
responsible for all the low level C-class flaring during the period.
The largest flare was a C3/Sf at 28/1759 UTC.  Other activity consisted
of a C1 flare observed at 28/2258 UTC from beyond the ESE limb.  Slight
decay was observed in the smaller trailing spots of Region 2248 and in
the intermediate area of Region 2249 (S12W74, Dac/beta-gamma).  No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares on day one (29 Dec).  On days two through
three (30-31 Dec), solar activity is likely to be low with a slight
chance for M-class flares as Region 2249 rotates off the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 646 pfu at 28/1745 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was slightly
enhanced reaching 0.7 pfu at 28/1825 UTC, but well below the S1 (Minor)

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the forecast period (28-30 Dec) with a chance of
reaching high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit is likely to remain slightly enhanced, but below
event threshold levels (Below S1-Minor) on day one (29 Dec).  Background
levels are expected on days two through three (30-31 Dec).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions were agitated over the period.  Solar wind speeds
ranged from 342 km/s to 423 km/s.  Total field increased from
approximately 7 nT to a maximum of 14 nT at 28/1818 UTC.  The Bz
component deflected southward to a maximum of -10 nT at 28/1841 UTC.
Phi angle was mostly in a negative (towards) orientation.

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be agitated through
the forecast period (29-31 Dec) due to coronal hole high speed stream
effects (CH HSS).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  An active period
was observed during the 28/1800-2100 UTC time frame.

The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active periods possible for the forecast period
(29-31 Dec) due to CH HSS effects. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.