Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
000
FXXX12 KWNP 290031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Dec 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 2248 (S19E07, Dso/beta) was
responsible for all the low level C-class flaring during the period.
The largest flare was a C3/Sf at 28/1759 UTC.  Other activity consisted
of a C1 flare observed at 28/2258 UTC from beyond the ESE limb.  Slight
decay was observed in the smaller trailing spots of Region 2248 and in
the intermediate area of Region 2249 (S12W74, Dac/beta-gamma).  No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares on day one (29 Dec).  On days two through
three (30-31 Dec), solar activity is likely to be low with a slight
chance for M-class flares as Region 2249 rotates off the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 646 pfu at 28/1745 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was slightly
enhanced reaching 0.7 pfu at 28/1825 UTC, but well below the S1 (Minor)
threshold.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the forecast period (28-30 Dec) with a chance of
reaching high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit is likely to remain slightly enhanced, but below
event threshold levels (Below S1-Minor) on day one (29 Dec).  Background
levels are expected on days two through three (30-31 Dec).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions were agitated over the period.  Solar wind speeds
ranged from 342 km/s to 423 km/s.  Total field increased from
approximately 7 nT to a maximum of 14 nT at 28/1818 UTC.  The Bz
component deflected southward to a maximum of -10 nT at 28/1841 UTC.
Phi angle was mostly in a negative (towards) orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be agitated through
the forecast period (29-31 Dec) due to coronal hole high speed stream
effects (CH HSS).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  An active period
was observed during the 28/1800-2100 UTC time frame.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active periods possible for the forecast period
(29-31 Dec) due to CH HSS effects.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.