Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 170030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Apr 17 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 2035 (S17E11,
Ekc/beta-gamma) produced a M1/1N solar flare (NOAA Scale R1 - minor
radio blackout) at 16/1959 UTC. An associated type II radio sweep
(estimated speed 1071 km/s) was reported in conjunction with this event.
We are awaiting availability of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 coronagraph images for
CME confirmation. Further analysis for determination of a potential
Earthward trajectory will be conducted once images become available.
Several other C-level enhancements were noted during the period, though
X-ray backgrounds increased into the C-levels halfway through the
period. Two new regions, 2041 (S21W30, Bxo/beta) and 2042 (N19E69,
Cso/beta) were numbered today. At 06/1441 UTC a Type II was observed by
Sagamore Hill and San Vito solar radio observatories with estimated
speeds of 522 km/s and 940 km/s respectively for the same event. At
06/1459 UTC, an associated Type IV sweep was observed by both
observatories as well. However, no solar flares were observed near those
time frames and no subsequent CMEs have emerged in coronagraph data
either. A faint CME was observed in LASCO C2 with a southward biased
partial halo signature at around ~16/0700 UTC. Analysis of H-Alpha solar
movie loops failed to reveal a disappearing or eruptive filaments in the
hours prior. A lack of STEREO images prevents a conclusive determination
of an Earthward trajectory, though a lack of associated radio signatures
at this time suggests a weak or even backsided event.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-Minor) for the next three
days (17 - 19 Apr) due to solar region complexity and growth.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (17 - 19
Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at background levels (Below S1-Minor) during the period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, continued to
exhibit nominal conditions throughout the period. Speeds remained less
than 355 km/s. IMF Bt ranged from 1-8 nT while the Bz component varied
between +/- 5 nT. The phi angle was oriented in a mostly negative
(towards) sector, until ~16/1900 UTC when the phi orientation began to
fluctuate with intermittent flips to a positive sector (away) of the
IMF. A Solar Sector Boundary Crossing (SSBC) towards a predominate
positive sector is believed to be in progress.

.Forecast...
Solar wind enhancements, including modest speed and Bt increases, are
expected on days one and two (17 - 18 Apr) due to possible recurrent
activity.  A return to nominal conditions is expected by day three (19
Apr).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled levels are forecast for days one and two (17 - 18
Apr) in response to possible recurrent enhancements in solar wind
parameters. The field should return to mostly quiet levels on day three
(19 Apr).



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