Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 201231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Oct 20 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels.  Region 2192 (S13E36,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an impulsive M3/1n flare at 20/0911 UTC
which was the largest event of the period. In addition, Region 2192
produced a C9/1f flare at 20/0602 UTC and multiple mid-level C-class
flares throughout the period.  Region 2192 persists as the most
productive and threatening region on the visible disk and continued to
develop throughout the period.  Region 2193 (N05E02, Dro/beta) exhibited
minor growth this period while the other regions on the visible disk
were relatively stable.  No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
were observed this period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity and a slight chance for X-class (R3 or
greater) flare activity over the next three days (20-22 Oct) with Region
2192 being the likely source of solar activity.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (20-22 Oct).  There is a slight
chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at or above the S1
(Minor) solar radiation storm level over the next three days (20-22 Oct)
as Region 2192 moves into a more favorable position on the solar disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated the likely onset of a positive polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) at around 20/1800 UTC.  Solar
wind speeds were steady between 375-475 km/s through 20/0800 UTC when
wind speeds increased to near 550 km/s.  IMF total field values were
steady between 5-11 nT and Bz varied between +8 nT and -8 nT.  The phi
angle was steady in a positive (away) solar sector throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced, with wind speeds
in the 450-550 km/s, over the next three days (20-22 Oct) due to
continued CH HSS influence.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to the onset of
a positive polarity CH HSS.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels over
the next three days (20-22 Oct) due continued CH HSS influence.



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