Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 240031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Nov 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Regions 2209 (S15W57,
Fki/beta-gamma-delta), 2216 (S13E28, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta), and 2217
(S19E68,Cao/beta) were all responsible for low-level C-class flaring.
The largest flare of the period was a C3 at 23/1053 UTC from Region
2217.  Slight growth was observed in the smaller intermediate spots in
Region 2209.  Slight decay was observed in the trailing penumbral area
of Region 2216, however there appears to be a connection between the two
polarities in the northern area of the region.  No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a chance for an
X-class flare (R3/Strong or greater) during the period (24-26 Nov).
Regions 2209 and 2216 continue to be the most likely sources for
significant flare production.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels for the forecast period (24-26 Nov). There is a
slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at or above
the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold over the next three days
due to potential significant flare activity from Regions 2209 and 2216.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced through the period with
solar wind speed between 351 km/s and 479 km/s.  Total field ranged from
7 nT to 9 nT while the Bz component was mostly negative between +/-7 nT.
Phi angle was mostly positive (away) throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be in decline towards nominal
levels through day one (24 Nov).  Nominal solar wind conditions are
expected on days two through three (25-26 Nov).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (24 Nov).  A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected by
days two through three (25-26 Nov).



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