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FXXX12 KWNP 241231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Aug 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2579 (N11W01, Dao/beta) was the
largest region on the disk. The region underwent a decaying trend
through the period, loosing much of its umbral area. Region 2578
(N08W55, Cro/beta) also exhibited a trend of gradual decay. Region 2580
(S18E40, Hax/alpha) was primarily stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance
for C-class flares all three days (24-26 Aug).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels on days one and two (24-25 Aug) and increase to
moderate to high levels on day three (26 Aug) as a result of CH HSS
influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested
the transition of from a CIR into a negative polarity CH HSS. Total
magnetic field trended upward to a peak of around 16 nT between
23/1800-24/0000 UTC before gradually decreasing towards 5 nT by the
periods end. The Bz component has been primarily northward with several
brief rotations southward observed earlier in the period. Solar wind
speeds increased from 400 km/s at the beginning of the period to a peak
of between 500-600 km/s after 24/0000 UTC. Phi was predominantly
negative (towards the Sun) with a rotation into the positive sector
between 23/1500-1900 UTC.

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through day one
(24 Aug) as negative polarity CH HSS effects continue. Continued, but
decreasing, CH HSS effects are likely to persist through days two and
three (25-26 Aug).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels between 23/1800 -
24/0300 UTC in response to prolonged periods of southward Bz.

The geomagnetic field is expected to remain disturbed, with isolated
periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on day one (24 Aug). Active
conditions on day two (25 Aug) are likely to give way to unsettled
conditions on day three (26 Aug) as CH HSS effects wane. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.