Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 301232
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jun 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period
was produced by Region 2373 (N16E46, Cso/beta), a C2/1f at 29/1807 UTC.
Region 2373 was split into two separate regions with the eastern portion
renumbered 2376 (N13E63, Eao/beta). Little change was noted in either of
these regions over the past 24 hours. No Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections were observed this period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity for days one through three (30 Jun
- 02 Jul).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 7,557 pfu observed at 29/1705 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced this period, but remained below
the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at moderate
to high levels over the next three days (30 Jun - 02 Jul). 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to trend down to near-background levels over days one
through three (30 Jun - 02 Jul).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds were
variable between about 380 to 425 km/s. IMF total field strength ranged
between 1-7 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT. The phi
angle was in a predominately positive (away) solar sector orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels for
day one (30 Jun). A minor enhancement may be reflected from the
influence of a small positive polarity coronal hole on day two (01 Jul).
Day three (02 Jul) is expected to see a nominal solar wind.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period under an
ambient solar wind environment.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one through
three (30 Jun - 02 Jul). Isolated periods of unsettled activity are
possible in response to a small positive polarity coronal hole on day
two (01 Jul).



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