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FXXX12 KWNP 281230

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jul 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2390 (S15W19,
Dai/beta-gamma) exhibited signs of consolidation in its leader spots
while continuing to decay in its intermediate spots. This region
remained predominantly stable as only a couple of weak, B-class flares
were observed during the period. Region 2389 (S12E16, Dro/beta) remained
fairly stable throughout the period. Region 2391 (N05E62, Hsx/alpha)
remained quiet and unchanged as it continued its transit onto the
visible disc.

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
activity for the next three days (28-30 Jul) primarily due to the flare
potential of Region 2390.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with a peak flux of 225 pfu observed at 27/1410 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (28-30 Jul)
while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...

Solar wind parameters remained fairly consistent, yet slightly disturbed
during the period. Solar wind speeds averaged near 480 km/s with
isolated peaks in excess of 500 km/s. The IMF total field strength
varied slightly between 2 - 6 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated
between +/- 5 nT. Temperature and density remained steady, with the Phi
angle remaining in a mostly positive (away) orientation, occasionally
oscillating into a negative (towards) position.

Solar wind is expected to remain slightly enhanced through the remainder
of day one (28 Jul) ahead of the anticipated onset of a positive
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Day two (29 Jul) an
increase in solar wind velocity is expected as the CH HSS moves into a
more geoeffective position. Day three (30 Jul) should bring a slight
decrease in solar wind velocity and a return to more ambient IMF
conditions as the CH HSS effects begin to wane.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, mainly due to
slightly elevated solar wind velocities and brief periods of southward

Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of day one
(28 Jul). Day two (29 Jul) is expected to see an increase to quiet to
active conditions due to the onset of the anticipated positive polarity
CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day three (30
Jul) as the CH HSS begins to rotate out of a favorable, Earth-connected
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