Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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FXXX12 KWNP 290031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Aug 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2146 (N08W86, Cso/beta-delta) provided
the largest solar events of the period with dual C1 flares at 28/0519
UTC and 28/1520 UTC. Region 2146 continued its migration towards the
western limb and appeared to maintain its delta magnetic configuration.
Regions 2151 (S07E06, Hsx/alpha) and 2152 (S18E55, Cro/beta) produced
B-class flare activity late in the period. The other three numbered
sunspot groups were either stable or in a state of decay. A disappearing
solar filament (DSF), centered near S22W59, was observed lifting off of
the solar disk in H-alpha imagery beginning at 28/0022 UTC. Subsequent
LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery showed a coronal mass ejection (CME), first
visible at 28/0136 UTC, associated with this DSF but geomagnetic impacts
have been deemed negligible due to the location and narrow signature of
the CME. An additional CME was observed in STEREO-B COR 2 imagery
starting at 28/1809 UTC, but was determined to be a back-sided event.

Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class
flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) for the next two days (29-30 Aug) with
Region 2146 the likely source. Day three (31 Aug), solar activity is
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare taking into
account the departure of Region 2146.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels, reaching a peak of 281 pfu at 28/1735 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the next two days (29-30 Aug)
with an increase to moderate to high levels expected on day three (31
Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels throughout the forecast period (29-31 Aug).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft continued to reflect
CME passage characteristics. Wind speed reached a peak of 386 km/s at
28/0921 UTC. Total field (Bt) measurements ranged between 3 and 13 nT
while the Bz component dropped as low as -11 nT and was predominantly
negative throughout the reporting period. The Phi angle was oriented in
a positive (away) solar sector for the majority of the period.

Solar wind parameters should see waning CME effects on day one (29 Aug)
followed by the influence of a positive polarity, coronal hole
high-speed stream (CH HSS). Day two (30 Aug), should see a return to
nominal conditions before another positive polarity CH HSS becomes
geoeffective on day three (31 Aug).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels,
with major storm (G2-Moderate) conditions observed a high latitude
magnetometer stations.

Quiet to active conditions are expected on day one (29 Aug) due to
waning CME effects combined with the influence of a positive-polarity CH
HSS. Days two and three (30-31 Aug), should see quiet to unsettled
conditions as CH HSS effects subside and an additional positive-polarity
CH HSS becomes geoeffective early on day three (31 Aug). is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.