Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 290031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Jul 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low with only an isolated low level B-class
flare observed.  New Region 2570 (N11E66, Bxo/beta) was numbered today.

An approximate 25 degree filament, centered near N01E06, was observed
lifting off the visible disk in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 28/1620
UTC.  Analysis of a potential CME will ensue once coronagraph imagery
becomes available.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period
(29-31 Jul).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with a peak flux of 348 pfu observed at 28/0005 UTC.  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on days one through three (29-31 Jul) due to electron
redistribution from CH HSS effects.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to remain at background levels over the next three days
(29-31 Jul).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of a CIR followed by a
transition into a negative polarity CH HSS.  Beginning around 27/2330
UTC, an increase in density to a maximum of 45 p/cc and total field to
near 8 nT was observed early in the period.  Total field continued to
increase to a maximum of 13 nT at 28/1912 UTC while the Bz component
ranged from +8 nT to -10 nT.  Solar wind speed increased from 330 km/s
to near 520 km/s.  Phi angle was variable until approximately 28/1730
UTC when it transitioned into a mostly negative (towards) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced under CH HSS
influence through day one (29 Jul) and diminish to nominal solar wind
conditions on days two and three (30-31 Jul).  Solar wind speeds are
expected to be in the 500-600 km/s range.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS
effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day
one (29 Jul) due to persistent CH HSS effects.  Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected on day two (30 Jul) with mostly quiet conditions on
day three (31 Jul) as CH HSS effects diminish.


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