Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
FXXX12 KWNP 160031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Dec 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. A disappearing
solar filament (DSF) was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery lifting off of
the southeast quadrant, near S25E47, at approximately 15/1229 UTC.
Forecasters are awaiting coronagraph imagery to determine if there is an
Earth-directed component for this event.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next
three days (16-18 Dec).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next two days (16-17 Dec). An increase to
moderate to high levels is expected for day three (18 Dec) in response
to elevated wind speeds from a recurrent CH HSS. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout
the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated background conditions. Solar wind speeds
decreased from approximately 375 km/s to end the period near 340 km/s.
Total field did not exceed 6 nT and the Bz component did not drop below
-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive solar sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to continue at background levels
until late on day two (17 Dec) when elevated wind speeds and enhanced
total field measurements will announce the arrival of a recurrent,
positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds are anticipated to exceed 600 km/s
with this feature.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on days
one and two (16-17 Dec). Late on day two, unsettled to active
conditions are expected due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent,
positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels are likely on day three (18 Dec) as CH HSS effects linger.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.