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FXXX12 KWNP 070031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Oct 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2427 (N16W72, Cso/beta) produced the
largest and only event of the period with a B1 flare at 06/1114 UTC.
Region 2427 was unremarkable and stable. New Region 2429 (S17E56,
Bxo/beta) rotated around the southeastern limb but has not produced
significant flaring and has a small areal extent. There were no
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed in satellite
imagery during the period.

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for
C-class flares for the forecast period (07-09 Oct).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels during
the period, reaching a peak flux of 6,928 pfu at 06/1740 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at normal to
high levels on day one (06 Oct) before decreasing to normal
to moderate levels on days two and three (07-08 Oct) in conjunction with
the anticipated arrival of a recurrent, equatorial, positive polarity
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background (Below S1-Minor) levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near background levels for most of the
period. Solar wind speeds averaged approximately 400 km/s throughout the
period. Total field strength (Bt) ranged between 3 and 7 nT, showing a
slight enhancement to 12 nT during the later part of the reporting
period. Bz was predominately negative, reaching a maximum southward
deviation of -7 nT. The phi angle was in a positive (away from the Sun)
orientation until approximately 06/1100 UTC when it became variable,
occasionally reaching into a negative (towards the Sun) sector but
remaining predominantly positive until the end of the period.

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at or near background
levels through the majority of day one (07 Oct). Mid to late on 07 Oct,
the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a
recurrent, equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become
geoeffective. An increase in solar wind speeds to near 650 km/s, as
well as an increase in total field strength to near 20 nT, is expected.
Enhanced conditions are expected to persist on day two (8 Oct) and into
the early hours of day three (09 Oct) in response to the high speed


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
periods of active conditions due to substorming and prolonged negative

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a
chance for isolated active conditions early on day one (07 Oct). Late on
07 Oct, the arrival of a CIR and subsequent CH HSS are expected, calling
for an increase to moderate (G2-Major) storm levels that persist into
the early hours of day two (08 Oct). Active to minor storm (G1) levels
are expected through the end of the day and into the early portion of
day three (9 Oct) due to substorming effects. The remaining part of 9
Oct should see quiet to unsettled conditions as CH HSS effects begin to
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