Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 251647
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

VALID 251700Z - 261200Z

...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES...
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...AS A PAIR OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ENCOURAGING CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z
SLC RAOB SUGGESTS A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...CHARACTERIZED BY SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL BUOYANCY...A
DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...AND PW NEAR 0.7 INCHES. THE ONGOING
ISOLATED DRY-THUNDER AREA IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO ALIGN WITH RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL/GUIDANCE DATA...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE MADE. WITHIN
THIS AREA...THE BEST PROBABILITY FOR DRY-THUNDER LIKELY WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MT...WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE...MID-LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND CLOUD-LAYER FLOW WILL EXIST.

ADDITIONALLY...POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE-WX CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE WIND RIVER RANGE IN WY. TERRAIN EFFECTS
WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE GUSTY WINDS AND ADIABATIC DRYING...FAVORING
SOME UPTICK IN FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS AS WELL.

..PICCA.. 07/25/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. THIS
FEATURE...COMBINED WITH MEAGER MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHWARD BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PW VALUES LESS THAN 0.75 INCHES AND A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER AS INDICATED BY LARGE INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL RESULT
IN LITTLE WETTING RAINS. LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER DRY FUEL BEDS WILL
HENCE BE OF SOME CONCERN FROM PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN ID INTO
SOUTHWEST MT...WESTERN WY AND NORTHEAST UT. ELSEWHERE...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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