Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 211635

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Valid 211700Z - 221200Z

...Portions of the south Texas...
Regional 12Z soundings sampled the warm airmass across the region
with DRT, CRP, and BRO reporting 16, 19, and 20 deg C at 850 mb,
respectively. Based on SPC sounding climatology, these values are
all near or above the 90th percentile. Deep boundary layer mixing
within this warm environment will support highs in the mid to upper
80s with minimum RH values from the mid teens to mid 20s, with the
lowest RH values anticipated in areas where downslope effects will
be maximized (i.e. from the western Edwards Plateau to the upper Rio
Grande Valley). Winds are still expected to increase to near 20 mph,
with the resulting combination of dry, windy, and warm conditions
resulting in an elevated to locally critical fire weather threat in
areas where fuels are dry.

..Mosier.. 01/21/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

A strong mid/upper jet will progress from the Desert
Southwest/northern Mexico to the northwest Gulf of Mexico through
the period. As it moves east, a closed low will organize over the
Red River Valley, eventually reaching the ArkLaTex near the end of
the period. In response, a surface cyclone will shift from the Texas
Panhandle east across Oklahoma and into Arkansas.

...Portions of the south Texas Plains...
High pressure will build into northwest Mexico and the Desert
Southwest, such that the pressure gradient over parts of
western/southern Texas tightens through Saturday night. In turn,
westerly winds will increase across much of western and far southern
Texas through the period. Elevated/locally critical fire-weather
concerns will likely remain confined to locations near the Rio
Grande in southern Texas, where downslope drying/warming supports RH
values falling into the 20-25 percent range during the afternoon,
while winds increase to around 20 mph sustained. While even windier
conditions (sustained winds over 30 mph) will exist farther
northwest, higher RH values should preclude greater fire-weather
concerns there.

...Please see for graphic product...

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