Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 211638
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VALID 211700Z - 221200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...CNTRL GREAT BASIN...SRN/CNTRL WY...
THE ONGOING FORECAST RATIONALE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WY REMAINS
VALID WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE SPATIAL BOUNDS.
LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY OVER CENTRAL WY WHERE THE
CONCURRENCE OF CRITICAL RH AND WINDS AOA 20 MPH WILL EXIST FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

...FAR ECNTRL CA....WCNTRL/CNTRL/NERN NV...FAR NWRN UT...SRN ID...
DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW CLOUD BASES WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS AND
MARGINAL SURFACE RH VALUES ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA.  THE AREA HAS BEEN
TRIMMED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE WHERE A PERSISTENT BAND OF
CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY.  ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT FORM WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE WETTING RAINS...RELATIVELY FAST
STORM MOTIONS /AOA 25 MPH/ WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY FOR CG LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CORES.

..JIRAK.. 07/21/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0322 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...WILL BUILD NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH SERN ID/WRN WY PER 06Z
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. SRN
PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NWD/NEWD OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN AND
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE IN
THE PERIOD. FARTHER E...WEAK AND BROADLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

...CNTRL GREAT BASIN...SRN/CNTRL WY...
MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM CNTRL CA NEWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RELATIVELY DRY SWLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN DRYING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING PW VALUES BELOW 0.5O INCH BY 00Z.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ABNORMALLY WARM BUT THE DRYING
AIRMASS WILL STILL SUPPORT MIN RH VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT.
ADDITIONALLY...DEEP MIXING BENEATH THE ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A SWD
PROGRESSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 15
TO 20 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS AMIDST DRY TO VERY DRY FUELS WILL RESULT
IN AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER SRN/CNTRL
WY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 MPH FOR LONGER
THAN 3 HOURS IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW FOR A CRITICAL DELINEATION.

...FAR E-CNTRL CA....W-CNTRL/CNTRL/NE NV...FAR NW UT...SRN ID...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS...STORM MOTIONS GREATER THAN 20 KT...AND PW
VALUES AROUND 0.75 INCH. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY WITH A RESULTANT ISOLATED DRY TSTM RISK. GIVEN THE DRY FUELS
ACROSS THE AREA...LIGHTNING-CAUSED IGNITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN WITH
WET STORMS AS LIGHTNING OCCURS OUTSIDE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CORES.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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