Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 071647
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

VALID 071700Z - 081200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES IN SRN CA...

...SRN CA...
WARM...DRY...AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SRN CA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY 1
PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING
DURING THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH THE GRADIENT INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE GRADIENT TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG WITH LAX-TPH AND LAX-DAG GRADIENTS
AROUND -16 MB AND -9 MB BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH THE INCREASING GRADIENT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
FOSTERING PERSISTENCE OF THE GUSTY WINDS /OVER 40 MPH GUSTS/ AND
POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF LA AND VENTURA
COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE A LONG DURATION OF OVERLAPPING GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW RH...LIKELY RESULTING IN SUFFICIENTLY DRY FUELS SUPPORTIVE
OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. UNRECEPTIVE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FACTOR PRECLUDING
CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR AREAS S OF LA COUNTY.

...WEST/CNTRL TEXAS...
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NW TX...JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS. THIS WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH
PORTIONS OF WEST/CNTRL TX EXPERIENCING BREEZY WINDS WITH ENOUGH WLY
COMPONENT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S /AND MIN RH
VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT/ BEFORE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVES
IN THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE TX S PLAINS SEWD INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

...CNTRL/ERN KS...WRN/CNTRL/NERN OK...
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND
MID MO VALLEY. SUSTAINED NLY/NELY WIND OVER 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S /5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE/ WITH MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY
AROUND 20-25 PERCENT.HOWEVER...MARGINAL RH VALUES AND THE RELATIVELY
SHORT DURATION OF THE THREAT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER
LOCALIZED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF AN ELEVATED THREAT
AREA.

..MOSIER.. 02/07/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0238 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FOSTER A FEW AREAS OF ENHANCED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY.  A DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD AN INTENSE BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND EASTWARD TO
MISSISSIPPI.  IN THE WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY.  AT THE SURFACE...A PERSISTENT HIGH WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...CONTRIBUTING TO AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  A SECOND AREA
OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS IN
ADVANCE OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTH TEXAS.

...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
THE PERSISTENCE OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LED TO GRADUAL CURING AND DRYING OF FUELS IN
COASTAL RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS A RESULT OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH GUSTIER CONDITIONS /UP TO 45 MPH/
EXPECTED PARTICULARLY IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS.  THIS WILL OCCUR
AMIDST A VERY WARM AND DRY AIRMASS...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RISING TO NEAR 80F AND RH VALUES FALLING TO NEAR 15 PERCENT
AREA-WIDE.  THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FUELS IS THE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR AN EVEN HIGHER FIRE WEATHER THREAT...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WHERE FUELS ARE DRIEST.

...WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS...
THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
APPROACHING 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70F AND RH VALUES FALLING TO 12-15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH DRY FUELS AND A LACK OF ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL IN THIS REGION...WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION MID/LATE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SHIFTING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE COMPLICATIONS FOR ANY FIRE SUPPRESSION EFFORTS THAT MAY
BE NEEDED.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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