Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 181627
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 181700Z - 191200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

THE ONLY CHANGE THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS TO REMOVE THE ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM AREA OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.  THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SPARSE.  SUBSTANTIAL
MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY TEMPER VERY DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND THE FORMATION OF A VERY DRY/DEEP SUB-CLOUD
LAYER.  DESPITE THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND FUELS ONLY NOW
BEGINNING THEIR EARLY SEASON RESPONSIVENESS...A BRIEF/LOW THREAT FOR
LIGHTNING GENERATED FIRES MAY EXIST BUT THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO WARRANT A GRAPHICAL THREAT AREA.

..SMITH.. 04/18/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A SRN STREAM UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE SRN CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EWD...WITH A PLUME OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHWEST
AND SRN ROCKIES. NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN MORE ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
THE WRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MS VALLEY...AND
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

...FOUR CORNERS AREA...
MODEST MIDLEVEL MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC LOW
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 0.4-0.5 INCH.
STRONG SFC HEATING WILL ALLOW MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION TO
OCCUR...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS.
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...SO ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. TSTM COVERAGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT A CRITICAL DRY TSTM RISK.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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