Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 240716

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

Upper ridging which has persisted across the western CONUS for the
last week is expected to begin breaking down on Sunday as a
shortwave trough approaches its northern periphery late Sunday
evening/early Monday morning. Increasing mid-level moisture and
forcing for ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development
across northern CA and central OR. Some of these thunderstorms may
be dry (discussed in more detail below). Central/eastern CONUS
troughing will remain largely in place throughout the day before
becoming a bit more progressive late in the period in response to
the aforementioned shortwave trough. At the surface, ridging over
the Plains will persist while expanding eastward into the MS valley.
A cold front extending from central TX eastward across the Southeast
states will become increasingly diffuse.

...Northern CA/Central OR...
Model guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough will
approach the northern CA coast late Sunday night/early Monday
morning with a subtle lead disturbance moving through the region
Sunday afternoon. Increased mid-level moisture associated with the
approaching system will result in modest instability and the
potential for isolated thunderstorms, particularly over the higher
terrain. Given the deeply mixed boundary layer and precipitable
water values around 0.75", most of these storms will produce little
to no precipitation at the surface. While fuels are not overly dry,
above-average ERCs and below-average 100-hr dead fuel moisture have
been observed across the region, suggesting fuels are marginally
supportive of fire spread. Resulting combination of isolated dry
thunderstorms and modestly receptive fuels will support increased
fire danger and an isolated dry thunderstorm area has been
delineated to address this threat.

..Mosier.. 06/24/2017

...Please see for graphic product...

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