Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 111709
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SUSTAINED WLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH OCCUR AMIDST MIN RH VALUES
AROUND 35 PERCENT. HOWEVER...OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
TEMPERED BY UNRECEPTIVE FUELS /ERC VALUES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN
THE 70TH PERCENTILE/...PRECLUDING THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY THREAT
AREAS WITH THIS FORECAST.

..MOSIER.. 02/11/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0629 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A FEW MINOR
CHANGES HEADED INTO THE D2/FRI FORECAST PERIOD.  A LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF THE CONUS...WHILE
RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALONG THE OREGON/WASHINGTON COASTS.  AT THE
SURFACE...ROBUST CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM...SETTING UP SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR STRONGER
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PERHAPS LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  A STRONG /1045 MB/ HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS...LEADING TO A TIGHTENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION.  MEANWHILE LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ONCE AGAIN IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP BY A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

...PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS EAST OF THE AREA...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL YIELD 15-20 MPH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID 70S F AND RH VALUES WILL APPROACH REGIONAL CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS /I.E. 35 PERCENT/.  ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A HIGHER FIRE
WEATHER THREAT IS THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT HAVE OCCURRED
IN THE TWO-WEEK TIME FRAME PRIOR TO D2/FRI.  THIS MAY HAVE SOME
IMPACT ON FUELS...BUT CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT FINER FUELS MAY
BE DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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