364
FNUS73 KBIS 141156
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for 9-3...TNC
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
656 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Showers moving through Kidder county into wester Stutsman county presently,
may bring some very light precipitation to the burn site this morning. The better
chances for showers (40%) and isolated thunderstorms (20%) will be this afternoon
and this evening. It will remain mostly cloudy today with southeast winds around
15 mph, through early afternoon and shifting more southerly mid to late in
the afternoon. Look for a high around 71 today. Smoke dispersal will be good
this afternoon with a mixing height around 4200 feet.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers early
                    in the afternoon, then chance of showers in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (40200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (67800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........73  78  81  81  81  85
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).20  30  30  30  30  40
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............64  67  68  68  69  69
RH..............45  40  39  39  37  39
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..12  13  14  13  12  11
20 FT wind gust.17  18  15  15  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 3.4 3.9 4.2 3.7 4.0
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.18  17  18  18  15  16
Haines index....5   5   5   4   4   4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..40  51  62  68  48  55

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers through
                    the night. Slight chance of thunderstorms
                    overnight.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 29 percent.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0100, then 2 until 0400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (41000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........79  70  84  84  80  89  90  94  98  97  95  94
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   10  10  10  10  10  10  30  30  30  30  30
Chc of pcpn (%).40  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50
LAL.............1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1
Temp............69  67  65  61  59  57  56  56  55  55  54  53
RH..............39  43  48  58  64  69  72  74  74  77  80  83
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   SE  SE  S
20 FT wind spd..10  9   9   8   8   9   9   9   9   9   9   10
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  12  12  13  13  14  14  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 2.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SE  S   S   S   S   S   SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.15  13  12  12  9   10  10  10  12  12  12  12
Haines index....5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
Dispr kt-ft/1K..41  24  6   5   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   6

$$
Forecaster...HAMILTON
Requested by...Chris Gordon
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414098.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL chris_gordon@tnc.org