Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FNUS75 KMSO 222059
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR COUGAR WR EMB
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
259 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY, CAUSING A FEWSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAIN REMAIN LOW AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD
FALL NORTHWEST OF THE BURN SITE.  HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER,
LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN MONDAY WILL AFFECT THE
SITE.

A VERY DRY AND NEAR RECORD BREAKING WARM AIR MASS SHOULD PUSH
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT...SOME OF WHICH
SHOULD MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY PRODUCING ADDITIONAL WIND
AS WELL.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75 PERCENT LOWER PART.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5-6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE 2-4 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO LESS THAN 500 FT AGL THIS EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
                    THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65 UPPER PART AND 74-76 BOTTOM.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 2-4 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50 VALLEY AND 55-60 UPPER PART.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT VALLEY AND 50-55 RIDGE.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5-6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE 2-4 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO LESS THAN 500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTH 5-10 MPH.

.OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY...

MUCH WARMER, VERY DRY AND MODERATE HAINES INDEX DEVELOPING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.   RH
FALLING TO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER...BAUCK
REQUESTED BY...TINGLEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140923.COUGA.01/MSO


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