Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 061656
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1056 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

                VALID FEBRUARY 6 THROUGH FEBRUARY 11

...ASIDE FROM SOME PRECIPITATION TODAY, A DRY SPELL OF WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An rather strong upper air disturbance moved from the central Rockies
across the Texas panhandle to north Texas the past 24 hours.  This
storm produced some snow across southeast Colorado the past 24
hours, and further east over Texas showers and a few thunderstorms
developed over roughly the eastern half of the state.  Since
atmospheric moisture was limited all the rainfall amounts were
around a half inch or less.  This low will continue to produce some
light rain over northeast Texas and western Louisiana for a few more
hours, but most of the rain has already moved east of the WGRFC
area.  This storm should completely exit the WGRFC area by this
evening and the remaining rainfall will end.  No hydrologic impacts
are occurring with this rainfall over the WGRFC area.

A large high pressure system will form over the western U.S. Sunday,
and this ridge will persist for several days.  By Thursday this
ridge will be approaching the Rocky Mountains.  As a result, a
northwesterly upper air flow will be the predominant weather
feature over our region.  This northwesterly upper air flow may have
minor upper air disturbances rippling through it, but atmospheric
moisture will be so limited that no precipitation will result.
Therefore,  the weather will be dry across the WGRFC area from this
evening through at least Thursday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts
of 0.25 of an inch are forecast over portions of northeast Texas.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over roughly
the eastern third of Texas into western Louisiana.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Soil moisture continues to be above average in spite of the somewhat
drier weather conditions of late.  As a result, less rainfall than
usual will be required for runoff to occur. This, along with the
vegetation being dormant because we are in winter means runoff will
occur faster.  Over Texas, only 2% of the state is categorized as
abnormally dry.  Over New Mexico, 9% of the state is abnormally dry,
and that is mostly confined to the western portions of the state.
Precipitation over the next 5 days will not be heavy enough for
significant runoff to occur.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Minor flood and higher flow conditions continue to subside on the
Sabine and Trinity River basins.  Flood control reservoirs within
these basins continue to reduce lake levels keeping downstream flows
higher, but within controlled design channel capacities.  Sites
above criteria are Deweyville (DWYT2) on the lower Sabine, Carrollton
(CART2) on the Elm Fork River (Trinity Basin), and Moss Bluff (MBFT2)
on the lower Trinity River. No significant rainfall is forecast in
the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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