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Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
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AGUS74 KFWR 231926
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1033 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

                     VALID MAY 23 THROUGH MAY 28

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A broad, weak upper level ridge is slowly moving eastward across the
wgrfc area today.  A southwest flow aloft pattern with several short
wave disturbances will become the catalyst for potential scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the west from the
Panhandle south to the Big Bend today into Saturday.

The large sprawling closed upper level storm system continues
developing inland over the pacific northwest today with circulation
expanding to central california and northern nevada.  This system
will weaken and shift the upper level ridge over the area eastward
through the weekend into early next week with diminishing chances
for precipitation.


                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast from the Texas Panhandle south
to the Big Bend area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches
are forecast from the Texas Panhandle south to the Big Bend area
into northeastern Mexico.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches or less
are possible across isolated areas across northeastern Mexico and
most of Texas.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

THE ONGOING DROUGHT REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE WGRFC
AREA.  ABOUT 67 PERCENT OF TEXAS REMAINS IN SEVERE DROUGHT, OR
WORSE, WITH 18 PERCENT CLASSIFIED AS EXCEPTIONAL. IN NEW MEXICO,
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD,
WITH 98 PERCENT OF THE STATE IN SEVERE DROUGHT, OR WORSE, WITH
45 PERCENT CLASSIFIED AS EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT.


                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
River basins within the Sabine river system have receded to their
normal levels. Therefore all WGRFC forecast points are currently
below criteria. No significant flooding is expected over the next 5
days.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

WALLER


$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
