Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 221533
1033 AM CDT SAT APR 22 2017

                   VALID APRIL 22 THROUGH APRIL 27


                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper air disturbance became a closed low pressure system over
Kansas the past 24 hours. This low pushed a rather strong cold front
into Texas. Along and ahead of the front showers and thunderstorms
developed over Oklahoma and eventually formed south of the Red
River late Friday afternoon and evening.  These storms produced light
to moderate rainfall over mainly the northeast third of Texas.  While
the heaviest rain fell over Oklahoma and western Arkansas, amounts
during the past 24 hours in Texas included 1.90 inches near Point and
1.64 inches at Van Alstyne.  As the upper level system moves east
toward Missouri this morning the cold front will continue its
southward progression and it will bring cooler temperatures to the
region with its passage.  Some residual showers will be near and
behind the front and will sweep down through the central and eastern
parts of the WGRFC area today.  They will be diminishing in intensity
as they move southeastward.

Behind the departing low, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to
develop over the western parts of the WGRFC area by Sunday morning.
With the exception of some showers over deep south Texas and
northeast Mexico along the old cold front, dry weather is forecast
by tonight and into Sunday.  As the ridge slides eastward the dry
weather will continue over our region through Monday.

By Tuesday a more zonal upper air flow will develop.  As upper
disturbances ripple through this flow they may generate some light
precipitation over northwest New Mexico and Colorado Tuesday into
Wednesday morning.  Then on Wednesday one of the upper disturbances
will move across Kansas and Oklahoma.  While most of the rain from
this disturbance is forecast from Colorado into Kansas and Oklahoma,
a few showers may develop as far south as northeast Texas.

A stronger upper air disturbance is forecast to move into northern
New Mexico and southern Colorado on Thursday.  Along with some
precipitation over the western parts of the WGRFC area, there may be
a better chance for showers and thunderstorms over Texas later
Thursday into Friday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast from central and
east Texas into Louisiana, over deep south Texas into northeast
Mexico, and over a small part of southern Colorado and extreme
northern New Mexico.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of
an inch are forecast over central and northeast Mexico.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for portions of extreme northeast Texas, as well
as over northern New Mexico and much of Colorado.  The heaviest
rainfall is forecast north of the WGRFC area over western Colorado.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast from central
into northeast Texas, northern Louisiana, the northern half of New
Mexico and the remainder of Colorado.

Soil moisture conditions continue to show improvement due to recent
rainfall events. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the
area considered to be abnormally dry at 10%. Also, 2% of Texas was
experiencing moderate drought, with nothing in severe drought. In
New Mexico the Drought Monitor shows 46% of the state experiencing
abnormally dry conditions, with nothing in the moderate drought
category or worse categories.  The rainfall forecast will not be
heavy enough to produce runoff the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Higher than normal flows are expected to continue over the San Bernard,
Brazos and Rio Grande river systems through this weekend into next
week. Snow melt is causing near bank conditions on the Rio Chama river
near Chamita (CMTN5). No significant rainfall is forecast over WGRFC in
the next 5 days.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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