Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 031524
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1023 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

                VALID SEPTEMBER 3 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 8

...COASTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG WITH MONSOONAL ACTIVITY OUT WEST...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The morning opens again with localized showers along the middle to
upper Texas Gulf coast.  Continued coastal seabreeze showers are
possible today along with daily afternoon monsoonal showers
across the western WGRFC area of New Mexico and Colorado.

The persistent upper level low continues to weaken, but will remain
along the Texas Gulf coast today resulting in isolated scattered
showers and thunderstorms mainly across coastal Texas.  In its
wake, an upper level high pressure ridge is building in from the
west over the central U.S. that will dominate the weather pattern
thru the weekend bringing drier weather across most of the WGRFC
area.

Early next week, the upper level ridge will begin to break down
as a fairly strong upper trough and associated cold front moves
across the northwest U.S.  Most of the activity from this
storm system will remain well north of the region.  However, showers
and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front bringing the
next chance for storms to reach the area by late next Wednesday into
late next week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inches or less are forecasted for the Gulf Coast
region and across New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches or less
are forecasted for the Gulf Coast region and across New
Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Drought conditions are returning to a good part of the southeast
two thirds of Texas.  Topsoil moisture has decreased during the
past month or so, thus it will take more rainfall for runoff to
occur. In Texas 41% of the state is abnormally dry, with 6% in
severe drought.  In New Mexico, 51% of New Mexico is also abnormally
dry.  The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy
enough to cause significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC rivers are below criteria. The precipitation forecast over
the next couple days is not expected to create significant issues.
Dry  soil conditions continue across most of Texas. Lake levels
continue to remain near conservation or within flood pools for much
of north and  east Texas while most west Texas reservoirs are well
below conservation.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCKEE


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