Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 271651
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1051 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

                  VALID FEBRUARY 27 THROUGH MARCH 4

...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WGRFC
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level disturbance is producing widespread light winter
precipitation across New Mexico and most of North Texas.  A well
organized Pacific storm is still expected to track down the West
Coast through the weekend.  As a result, the upper level flow
will become more southwest oriented, tapping into deep Pacific
moisture.  A milder airmass will return to Texas, with the
precipitation expected to turn all liquid later in the weekend.
Widespread light rainfall is expected for most of the area through
Tuesday.  Another strong cold front could impact the area Wednesday,
tapping into the deeper moisture.  Thunderstorms are possible later
Tuesday and Wednesday for the eastern half of Texas.

The forecast for New Mexico and Southern Colorado remains unchanged.
The previously mentioned upper level Pacific storm will hang around
the Southwest U.S. through the middle of next week.  Widespread
snowfall is expected across New Mexico and Southern Colorado, with
upslope areas receiving significant snow amounts.  Some areas will
measure new snow in "feet" increments through early next week.
Widespread beneficial snowfall should help dent the below normal
precipitation pattern for this area.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for Southern Colorado and
Northern New Mexico.  Lighter MAP amounts are expected elsewhere.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
forecast for Southern Colorado.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for Northern New Mexico.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less
are forecast for most of Texas, including the Middle Texas Coast.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are
forecast for Southern Colorado and Northern New Mexico.  MAP amounts
of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for East Texas.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are
forecast for Southern Colorado and most of New Mexico.  MAP amounts
of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for the remainder of the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 14% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%), and 4% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions.  Lake levels in these exceptional
drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year.
The most significant precipitation in the forecast the next five days
is for New Mexico and Southern Colorado.  No significant runoff is
expected elsewhere the next five days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the
eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas.
Continued periods of cold rain and wintry precipitation over the area
through Monday will be beneficial moisture as any frozen precipitation
will slowly melt and infiltrate soils. A few criteria
forecasts may be necessary in the flashier basins of east Texas through
the period.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

WALLER


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