Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
AGUS74 KFWR 111627
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1126 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014
VALID MARCH 11 THROUGH MARCH 16
...WILL WINTER EVER END AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES TEXAS...
The upper level low has motored on through central Texas pushing the
rainfall off shore. There were some minor accumulations in central
and south Texas but not much of significance. The upper level
system dragged in very dry air from the north and west which is
mixing its way out in advance of the cold front. This will keep any
further precipitation from developing even as the front passes
through. The cold front should cross into Texas beginning tonight
and should push through the WGRFC area by mid morning. This will
bring cooler temperatures but also dry air for the next couple of
The next few days will be primarily zonal with even a weak ridge
moving in from the west. This should allow temperatures to return
to normal quicker than previous fronts, but will keep the air very
dry heading into Friday. This weekend there is some model
discrepancy on a possible incoming upper level trough that may bring
some light precipitation to northern Texas. Southern flow at the
surface may interact with this system bringing light precipitation
to parts of southern Colorado and further along northeast Texas.
This will be examined as the event draws closer.
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 are
forecasted by WPC for far eastern Texas.
Almost all of New Mexico and 91% of Texas remain in some level of
drought category. In addition, 9% of Texas and 23% of New Mexico
are in extreme drought. The upper Rio Grande in south central
Colorado is in the abnormally dry category. Statewide, in Texas,
reservoirs are on average at 64% full. This is record lowest average
reservoir storage for this time of year, with average being about
80% full. There is considerable variability across the state, with
many of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50%
full. Significant improvement in the drought is not expected in the
short term for the WGRFC area, but some minor improvement is likely
occurring from the middle Texas Gulf coast into parts of deep south
Texas. The forecast precipitation totals are favorable for
continued minor runoff along the Texas Gulf coast the next five
days, but because of the dry soil moisture conditions the rainfall
will not be heavy enough to produce enough runoff to produce
mainstem river flooding.
...San Bernard Basin...
Locally heavy rainfall occurred this past weekend on the upper part
of the San Bernard River Basin. The San Bernard River near East
Bernard (EBBT2) is near crest just above flood stage this morning.
Rises downstream over the next couple of days are not expected to
Locally heavy rainfall occurred this past weekend over parts of the
Lavaca-Navidad River System. All forecast points have now receded
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall occurred this past weekend primarily over South Texas and
along and near the Texas Gulf Coast. Basin averaged rainfall
estimates over the past three days range from less than one half
inch for most of Texas and New Mexico to 2.5 inches near the coast.
Generally minor additional rises are expected in response to
observed and forecasted rainfall. Therefore, no significant flooding
is forecast for the next 5 days.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
National Precipitation Analysis:
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
The US Drought Assessment:
The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: