Hydrometeorological Discussion
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AGUS74 KFWR 261711
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1110 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

                 VALID JANUARY 26 THROUGH JANUARY 31

...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WGRFC AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT RAIN ARRIVES BY THE END OF THE WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure was centered over Utah this morning.
Meanwhile, a low pressure system was located over the eastern Pacific
Ocean well west of Baja California.  The ridge has produced a strong,
dry northerly flow of air over most of the WGRFC area.  Therefore,
precipitation-free conditions have been observed over most of the
WGRFC area, and the mild and dry weather should continue through
tonight as this flow persists.  Well out ahead of the eastern
Pacific low, there has been some light precipitation over northern
Mexico the past 48 hours, and some of this rain will continue
through tonight from Chihuahua westward and may move into parts of
southwestern New Mexico.

The western U.S. ridge of high pressure will move eastward and will
extend from Texas northward to Kansas by Tuesday evening.  As a
result, a dry westerly air flow will develop and Texas will continue
to be free of precipitation.  Meanwhile, later tonight and Tuesday the
low pressure system in the Pacific will move northward into the
western states. This could result in some light precipitation just
west of the WGRFC area of responsibility.  Thereafter, this low will
weaken and move eastward across the central Rockies and the central
plains Wednesday.  This disturbance will pass too far to the north to
bring Texas any precipitation so the dry weather will continue through
Wednesday night.

By Thursday a ridge of high pressure will be positioned over Mexico
while yet another Pacific storm system moves east into California. The
combination of these systems will push higher amounts of moisture from
the Pacific into the western parts of the WGRFC area. Since the low
over California will be a very slow moving system into Saturday, light
precipitation will develop over southern Colorado, New Mexico and far
west Texas by Thursday night into Friday.  Then as the low gets a bit
further east into Arizona the low will likely produce widespread
light rain over the southwest half of Texas as well by Saturday
morning.  Moderate amounts of rainfall will be possible over southwest
New Mexico from this storm system on Friday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the southwest
quarter of New Mexico into far west Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch
are forecast over parts of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or
more are forecast over the southwestern third of New Mexico into far
west Texas.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are
forecast over far southwestern New Mexico.   MAP amounts of less than
0.25 of an inch are forecast over parts of southern Colorado, most of
New Mexico, as well as over the southwest half of Texas.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, almost half the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (41%), and 11% has extreme to exceptional
drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%), and 4% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. Outside of east and southeast Texas,
soils are generally dry. The current precipitation forecast the
next five days will not be heavy enough to produce new or additional
runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Trinity River at Liberty has continued to rise from upstream
runoff and should crest slightly above action stage this evening.
The Trinity River near Moss Bluff (MBFT2) has continued  to rise
and should reach its peak slightly above minor flood stage in a day
or so.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding is occurring on the  Neches River near Diboll
(DIBT2). The Angelina River near Lufkin (LUFT2) is also expected to
remain  in minor criteria for a few days.  Attoyac Bayou near
Chireno  (ATBT2) has risen above minor flood levels and is expected
remain around 16 feet for another 36-48 hours.  Pine Island near
Sour Lake (SOLT2) is expected to remain slightly above action stage
criteria over the next few days.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Sabine  River at Deweyville (DWYT2) remains steady above minor
criteria at this time based on reservoir releases upstream.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Middle Yegua Creek near Dime Box (DMYT2) is cresting slightly
below minor flood criteria now.  The Navasota River at  Old Spanish
Rd. near Normangee (NGET2) is above action stage criteria and has
crested below 14 feet.  The Brazos River near  Hempstead (HPDT2) has
crested slightly below 30 feet.  The Brazos  River downstream at
Richmond (RMOT2) is above action stage now.  The crest is forecast
to be below 26 feet by Monday afternoon.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other forecast locations are at or near seasonal flows with no
additional flooding expected over the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$




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