Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 301550
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1049 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

                VALID SEPTEMBER 30 THROUGH OCTOBER 5

...MOSTLY DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER THIS WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will be isolated to the dry line over West Texas over
the next few days.  The upper level storm responsible for the
thunderstorms over Northeast New Mexico and Eastern Colorado is
lifting rapidly north.  Showers and thunderstorms should initiate
along the dry line each afternoon as daytime heating and the boundary
should provide the necessary lift to tap into the moist airmass
across the area.  This pattern should repeat again on Wednesday.

Widespread significant rainfall is expected, especially along and
east of Interstate 35, starting Thursday and continuing into the
weekend.  A well advertised cold front should cross the area
Thursday.  Moisture is not a limiting factor.  However, the best lift
and instability parameters will set up over East and Southeast Texas
later Thursday.  The focus for thunderstorm development will shift
south as the front makes steady progress Thursday into Friday.  At
this time, the front will make it to the Texas Coast, but may not
clear Deep South Texas.  With this residual boundary in place,
precipitation chances will remain in the forecast for Deep South
Texas into the weekend.

Beyond the scope of this forecast, but worth noting: the tropics over
the East Pacific remain quite active.  Even with upper level moisture
from Rachel slowly diminishing, yet another system is expected to
develop off the Mexico Coast.  This system will be named Simon if it
does indeed develop.  All official tropical forecasts come from the
National Hurricane Center.  WGRFC will be monitor moisture plumes and
connections to this system.  Even if the track does not impact the
WGRFC area of responsibility, mid and upper level conditions could
stream deep moisture into Northern Mexico.  At this time, reservoir
releases from Mexico are driving higher forecasts for the Rio Grande
(Rio Bravo) from Presidio through the Big Bend.  We will monitor this
situation and will update our forecasts if necessary.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of

Drought conditions are slowly improving over Texas and New Mexico.
Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought, while
less than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought
conditions are impacting less than 30% of New Mexico and 29% of
Texas.  No significant runoff is expected over the area for the
forecast period.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Flows down the Rio Conchos into the Rio Grande continue to cause minor
flooding near Presidio.  Flows downstream of Luis Leon Reservoir are
slowly decreasing.  No significant rainfall is forecast in the Rio
Conchos basin in the next 5 days. WGRFC continues to monitor hydrologic
conditions in the Rio Conchos basin.

...Pecos Basin...
Flows from last weeks flooding on the Pecos River in the vicinity Red
Bluff Reservoir continue downstream.  River levels are rising at
Grandfalls (PGFT2) and at Girvin (GIVT2).  Minor flood levels are not
forecast.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other basins are expected to remain near normal flow conditions.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

WALLER


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