Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 221625
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1124 AM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017

                  VALID AUGUST 22 THROUGH AUGUST 27

...RAINFALL ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT THIS WEEK,
POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure is in place over central and northeast
Texas this morning.  This ridge is bringing hot and mostly
dry conditions to a fair amount of our region. Along the western edge
of the ridge, locally heavy rainfall has been observed across parts
of New Mexico, southern Colorado as well as in far southwest and
northwestern Texas during the past couple of days. The heaviest
rainfall the past 24 hours was over west Texas near Lamesa. The
rainfall is ongoing in northeast New Mexico, and this is expected to
continue and move slowly eastward as an upper level disturbance moves
through a moist atmosphere eastward into the Texas panhandle and
Oklahoma. Meanwhile, southeastern Texas, especially near the coast,
should be active again today and the next few days with scattered
showers and thunderstorms due to the sea breeze front.  Widespread
heavy amounts are not expected.

The west should remain in an active monsoon pattern during the week
and into the weekend, but the threat for heavy rainfall should be
reduced after today.  Further east, due to the passage of a cold
front and outflow boundaries from the Oklahoma thunderstorms,
organized showers and thunderstorms can be expected in northern and
central Texas beginning Wednesday.  This rain area should diminish
over central Texas on Thursday.

The remnants of tropical storm Harvey are being closely watched as
the system moves to the northwest.  The remnants are over the
Yucatan Peninsula this morning, and there is a high likelihood this
storm will once again become a tropical storm once it emerges over
the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday.  This storm is forecast to
move northward, with current models bringing the storm to the middle
Texas Gulf coast later Friday.  The storm is forecast to move further
north into central and east Texas by Sunday morning. There is still
much uncertainty concerning the track, speed and intensity of this
storm. But there will be the potential of substantial rain over
portions of the WGRFC area from this storm.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast from the northeastern
portions of New Mexico and southern Colorado eastward across the
Texas panhandle to along the Red River across north Texas. MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast across most of New
Mexico and Colorado, northern and western Texas, southeast Texas and
southern Louisiana.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of
an inch are forecast for north Texas from roughly Midland east
through Waco and Longview and into northern Louisiana.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast across most of New
Mexico and Colorado, northern, central and western Texas, southeast
Texas and Louisiana.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for much of New Mexico, south central Colorado, central
Texas and along the lower and middle Texas Gulf coast. The heaviest
amounts of 1.00 inch are noted over east central New Mexico.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast across New Mexico
and Colorado, southern, central and western Texas, southeast Texas
and most of Louisiana.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are
forecast for southern and northeast New Mexico, south central
Colorado, most of Texas, and Louisiana.  The heaviest amounts of
nearly 4 inches are noted in southeast Texas between Palacios and
Houston TX.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast
across most of New Mexico and Colorado, and Texas.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 10%, and only 1% of Texas is
experiencing moderate drought conditions.  In New Mexico, only 1% of
the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, and that is in
the southwest portion. The rainfall forecast the next five days will
likely be heavy enough to produce runoff in southern New Mexico and
across the southeast third of Texas and southwest Louisiana.
Otherwise, there may be some runoff by the weekend anywhere across
the eastern half of Texas.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Luis Leon reservoir in Mexico is releasing water which will keep the
Rio Grande higher than normal through the Presidio and Big Bend
regions.  Current release is near 8300 cfs pushing the International
Bridge at Presidio (PRST2) into minor flood levels.  Other locations
from Candelaria downstream through Boquillas are experiencing higher
flows above action stage.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other mainstem sites and tributaries are at seasonal flow levels
with no additional flooding expected for the next few days.
Remnants of tropical cyclone Harvey are being closely watched by the
WGRFC staff for potential impacts along the Gulf Coast and points
inland.  While no particular area aside from the Rio Grande is
sensitive, heavy tropical rainfall can produce significant flooding
where it develops.  WGRFC will be closely monitoring this situation
over the next week to determine the flooding potential from this
storm.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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