Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center
AGUS73 KMSR 291935
Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
230 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017
Overnight through early this morning thunderstorms and scattered
showers were moving toward our region from central to northern
Missouri to southwest Iowa. Rainfall totals by 7 am were around
a half to three quarters of an inch just outside our basins, while
around a tenth inch occurred along central Iowa to northern
Farther north...a narrow band of rain with amounts of a quarter to
half inch extended from north central North Dakota to north of
the Canadian border.
In the forecast... early morning scattered showers that continued
in northeast Missouri will produce around a quarter to half inch
of rain. Then by tomorrow morning as this area continues to
develop north and eastward we expect average rainfall amounts
around an inch for the southeast half of Iowa to northeast
Missouri. Ahead of this area, around a half inch is expected
across northern Iowa to the southwest corner of Wisconsin, and
along western Illinois to east central and southeast Missouri.
Then for Thursday... rainfall totals should average around a half
to one inch in east central to northeast Missouri to northern
Illinois and northern Indiana and lower Michigan.
A storm system moving through the central part of the country
will result in some significant within bank rises across the
southern portion of the NCRFC area. Some locations are expected
to rise above FIS and a small number may reach flood stage based
on expected rainfall.
In North Dakota, the melt and runoff is underway, and rises and
minor flooding is ongoing in portions of the Souris River basin.
Moderate flooding is expected along parts of the Souris, and
flooding may reach the major level along the Park River near
Grafton, ND and the Pembina River near Neche, ND.
We will have a better grasp on the flooding situation Thursday
after most of the rain is on the ground.
For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at: http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc
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