Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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754
AGUS73 KMSR 201820
HMDMSR

Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1208 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

We currently have over 160 active forecast points in the NCRFC
service area, with 12 points at or above Major flood levels and 47
points at or above moderate flood levels. Widespread flooding is
being driven by a series of moderate to intense rainfall events
falling on ripe snowpack over frozen ground.

Under current conditions, even light or moderate rainfall in
the forecast can be expected to drive sharp rises in flooding in most
places as the ground remains either saturated or frozen. Combined
with ice breakup in many rivers this is leading to a complicated,
chaotic and potentially dangerous situation in the southern and
eastern parts of the NCRFC, an effect which is steadily moving north
and west as entire NCRFC picks up rain fall and moderate
temperatures. Ice jams are not easily predicted but we know that we
are at high risk of ice jam flooding in many areas.  Please see our
ice jam potential page for details:

http://intranet.msr.noaa/msr/portal/content/icejam/ice_jam_summary.php?nav_page=2

We went into 24x7 operations yesterday and will continue in that mode
until further notice.

River forecasts routinely incorporate 24 hours of QPF from
April 1 to September 30 and 48 hours from October 1 to March 31.
See http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc/LMI_QPF_NcrfcCurrentQpf

...Forecast Activity...
RVF forecasts issued today.  Issue times are in UTC.
Subtract 6 hrs for CST, 5 hrs for CDT/EST, 4 hrs for EDT.

RVF  Forecast Group description             Issue Time
CAL Little Calumet R Basin             2018-02-20 14:56 UTC
CIW Cedar/Iowa R Basin                 2018-02-20 15:14 UTC
CIW Cedar/Iowa R Basin                 2018-02-20 17:35 UTC
EWS Ern Wisconsin Basins to Lk MI      2018-02-20 15:40 UTC
GND Grand, Muskegon/White Basins, MI   2018-02-20 17:18 UTC
ILO Mainstem Illinois R                2018-02-20 18:02 UTC
KBM Kaskaskia and Big Muddy R Basin    2018-02-20 15:15 UTC
KDF Illinois R tribs abv LaSalle, IL   2018-02-20 15:15 UTC
KDF Illinois R tribs abv LaSalle, IL   2018-02-20 15:58 UTC
KDF Illinois R tribs abv LaSalle, IL   2018-02-20 17:36 UTC
KSJ Kalamazoo/St Joseph Bsns-MI & IN   2018-02-20 16:28 UTC
M19 Miss. R - L&D 11-Gregory Landing   2018-02-20 16:58 UTC
MIS Miss. R - L&D 20 to Chester, IL    2018-02-20 17:19 UTC
NLM Northern Lower Michigan rivers     2018-02-20 15:10 UTC
RCK Rock R Basin                       2018-02-20 15:21 UTC
SMS Southeastern Michigan Streams      2018-02-20 14:45 UTC
SMW Saginaw Basin in MI                2018-02-20 15:15 UTC
SSL Illinois R tribs blo LaSalle, IL   2018-02-20 15:10 UTC
TIA Misc Iowa Tribs to Miss. R         2018-02-20 15:23 UTC
TIA Misc Iowa Tribs to Miss. R         2018-02-20 15:59 UTC
TMO NE Missouri Tribs to Miss. R       2018-02-20 14:35 UTC
WIS Wisconsin R Basin                  2018-02-20 15:13 UTC
WIS Wisconsin R Basin                  2018-02-20 17:46 UTC

=====================================================================

Sites with forecasts above major flood level (FS=Flood Stage):
                                                                 MAX
RVF NWSLI    Station name/river                             FS   FCST
ILO MORI2 Morris - Illinois R                             16.0   24.0
ILO MMOI2 Marseilles - L&D 5 - Illinois R                467.0  475.0
ILO OTWI2 Ottawa - Illinois R                            463.0  471.6
ILO SRDI2 Utica - Starved Rock L&D 6 -Illinois R         450.0  465.5
ILO LSLI2 La Salle - 1S - Illinois R                      20.0   32.5
ILO HNYI2 Henry - Illinois R                              23.0   31.5
ILO HAVI2 Havana - Illinois R                             14.0   24.5
KDF DAVI3 Davis - Hwy 30 Br - Kankakee R                  10.0   13.5
KDF PYMI3 Plymouth - Yellow R                             13.0   16.4
KDF DBRI3 Dunns Bridge - Kankakee R (Wheatfield 5NE)      10.0   13.0
KDF KTSI3 Kouts - 5S - Kankakee R                         11.0   14.3
KDF SLBI3 Shelby - Kankakee R                              9.0   13.5
KDF RZLI3 Rensselaer - WWTP & Iroquois R                  12.0   16.0
KDF IRQI2 Iroquois - Iroquois R                           18.0   25.5
KDF CHBI2 Chebanse - 5E - Iroquois R                      16.0   20.5
KDF LEMI2 Lemont - 1NW - Des Plaines R                    10.0   12.5
KSJ SBNI3 South Bend - WWTP - St Joseph R                  5.5   11.4
KSJ NILM4 Niles - WWTP - St Joseph R                      11.0   15.9
RCK MLII2 Moline - Rock R                                 12.0   14.4

Sites with forecasts above moderate flood level (FS=Flood Stage):
                                                                 MAX
RVF NWSLI    Station name/river                             FS   FCST
CAL HDDI3 Dyer - Hart Ditch                               12.0   13.1
CAL THNI2 Thornton - Thorn Cr                             10.0   15.5
CAL LCMI3 Munster - Little Calumet R                      12.0   15.5
GND JACM4 Jackson - WWTP / Grand R                        14.0   15.0
GND HHTM4 Holt - 2E - Sycamore Cr                          8.0    9.5
GND LNSM4 Lansing - No 2 - Grand R                        11.0   14.1
GND EAGM4 Eagle - 2NNE - Looking Glass R                   7.0   10.5
GND IONM4 Ionia - Grand R                                 21.0   23.5
GND LWLM4 Lowell - Grand R                                15.0   18.1
GND HSTM4 Hastings - 3SE - Thornapple R                    7.0    9.0
GND ADAM4 Ada - Grand R                                   20.0   22.7
ILO PIAI2 Peoria - Boat Yard - Illinois R                 18.0   27.9
ILO PRAI2 Peoria - L&D 7 - Illinois R                    447.0  454.9
ILO BEAI2 Beardstown - Illinois R                         14.0   22.6
ILO NLGI2 La Grange - L&D 8 - Illinois R                  23.0   27.9
KDF KNXI3 Knox - WWTP - Yellow R                          10.0   12.7
KDF MOMI2 Momence - Kankakee R                             5.0    8.5
KDF FSMI3 Foresman - Iroquois R (Brook 2E)                18.0   23.0
KDF MILI2 Milford - 1W - Sugar Cr                         18.0   23.5
KDF WLMI2 Wilmington - 4NW - Kankakee R                    6.5    9.0
KDF RVRI2 Riverside - Des Plaines R                        7.5    8.0
KDF BOLI2 Bollingbrook - E Br Du Page R                   19.5   22.0
KDF SORI2 Shorewood - Du Page R                            6.5    8.3
KDF NMSW3 New Munster - 2N - Fox R                        11.0   13.0
KDF DAYI2 Dayton - Fox R                                  12.0   16.2
KSJ TRVM4 Three Rivers - WWTP & St Joseph R                7.0    9.8
KSJ MOTM4 Mottville - St Joseph R                          8.0    9.2
KSJ CPEI3 Cosperville - N Br Elkhart R                     6.0    7.1
KSJ GSHI3 Goshen - Elkhart R                               7.0   10.8
KSJ EKMI3 Elkhart - Public Works - St Joseph R            24.0   26.8
RCK BCHW3 Blanchardville - 2S- E Br Pecatonica R          11.0   15.0
RCK BROW3 Brodhead - WWTP & Sugar R                        5.0    9.2
RCK BYRI2 Byron - Rock R                                  13.0   14.2
RCK JOSI2 Joslin - Rock R                                 12.0   15.9
RCK GENI2 Geneseo - 2N - Green R                          15.0   16.7
SMS FSRM4 Sterling Heights - 1E (Frasier 3N)-Clinton R    16.0   17.2
SMS MCLM4 Mt Clemens - 2N - No Br Clinton R               15.0   17.5
SMW SAGM4 Saginaw - No 3 - Saginaw R                      17.0   20.1
SSL CLMI2 Colmar - 1SSW - La Moine R                      20.0   23.6
TIA DEWI4 De Witt - 4S - Wapsipinicon R                   11.0   12.3

Sites with forecasts above flood stage (FS):
                                                                 MAX
RVF NWSLI    Station name/river                             FS   FCST
CIW KALI4 Kalona - 1SSW - English R                       14.0   15.8
EWS FRKW3 Franklin - 2SE - Root R                          8.0    8.1
EWS RAYW3 Raymond - Root R Canal                           9.0    9.8
GND ETNM4 Eaton Rapids - Grand R                           6.0    6.3
GND WMSM4 Williamston - 3E - Red Cedar R                   9.0    9.4
GND ELNM4 East Lansing - Red Cedar R                       7.0    9.8
GND PORM4 Portland - WWTP & 1S - Grand R                  12.0   12.6
GND MRPM4 Maple Rapids - Maple R                           9.0    9.9
GND CLDM4 Caledonia - 2NE - Thornapple R                  10.0   11.9
GND ROCM4 Rockford - 3SW - Rogue R                         8.0    8.6
GND GDRM4 Grand Rapids - Grand R                          18.0   20.5
GND CROM4 Croton - Croton Dam - Muskegon R                 9.0    9.2
ILO MROI2 Meredosia - Pwr Plant - Illinois R              17.0   21.7
ILO VALI2 Valley City - Illinois R                        14.0   19.2
ILO HARI2 Hardin - Illinois R                             25.0   25.6
KBM VNDI2 Vandalia - WWTP & Kaskaskia R                   18.0   19.2
KDF RUSI2 Russell - Des Plaines R                          7.0    8.6
KDF GUNI2 Gurnee - 3SW - Des Plaines R                     7.0    7.7
KDF DSPI2 Des Plaines - 2N - Des Plaines R                15.0   15.5
KDF WRNI2 Warrenville - W Br Du Page R                    11.5   12.9
KDF NDRI2 Plainfield - Du Page R                          12.0   12.5
KDF COLI2 Coal City - 4W - Mazon R                        12.0   13.5
KDF BRGW3 Burlington - Fox R                              11.0   11.0
KDF AFBI2 Algonquin - Fox R TW                             9.5    9.8
KDF MNGI2 Montgomery - Fox R                              13.0   13.6
KDF LNRI2 Leonore - 3NE - Vermilion R                     16.0   16.5
KSJ CMSM4 Comstock - Kalamazoo R                           9.0    9.2
KSJ RCMM4 New Richmond - Kalamazoo R                      17.0   18.9
KSJ BURM4 Burlington - 3E - St. Joseph R                   6.5    6.9
KSJ VCKM4 Vicksburg - 2E - Portage R                       5.0    6.2
NLM STRM4 Sterling - 3N - Rifle R                          6.0    8.8
RCK AFTW3 Afton - 5SW - WWTP & Rock R                      9.0    9.5
RCK CLIW3 Clinton - WWTP-Turtle Cr                         8.0    9.5
RCK BOIW3 Beloit - 1SE - Hwy 51 - Turtle Cr                7.5    8.6
RCK MTNW3 Martintown - 2E & Pecatonica R                  13.5   16.7
RCK FEEI2 Freeport - WWTP - Pecatonica R                  13.0   13.7
RCK SIRI2 Shirland - Pecatonica R                         12.0   13.9
RCK LATI2 Latham Park - Rock R                            10.0   10.2
RCK BVDI2 Belvidere - WWTP - Kishwaukee R                  9.0    9.2
RCK PRYI2 Perryville - 2SW - Kishwaukee R                 12.0   15.2
RCK CMOI2 Como - Rock R                                   12.5   12.9
SMS MTCM4 Mt Clemens - 1W - Clinton R                     16.0   16.2
SMS DETM4 Detroit - Rvr Rouge                             15.0   17.5
SMS GACM4 Garden City - 2NE - MI River Rouge              10.0   10.2
SMS INKM4 Inkster - Lwr Rvr Rouge                         10.0   11.8
SMS DEXM4 Dexter - 2S - Mill Cr                           12.0   12.5
SMS HMGM4 Hamburg - 1N - Huron R                           6.5    6.9
SMS BLIM4 Blissfield - 1SW - River Raisin                683.0  683.7
SMS DNDM4 Dundee - WWTP - Rvr Raisin                     650.0  650.5
SMS MONM4 Monroe - WTP - Rvr Raisin                        9.0    9.6
SMW OWOM4 Owosso - 2NW - WWTP / Shiawassee R               7.0    8.6
SMW FRGM4 Fergus - 1E - Shiawassee R                      10.0   13.3
SMW DAVM4 Davison - 3W - Kearsley Cr                      10.0   10.9
SMW FLTM4 Flint - 7W - WWTP / Flint R                     13.0   14.1
SMW CSSM4 Cass City - 1SSW - WWTP/Cass R                  14.0   14.0
SMW VSSM4 Vassar - WWTP - Cass R                          14.0   14.2
SMW FRNM4 Frankenmuth - Cass R                            17.0   19.7
SSL LNMI2 London Mills - 1WSW - Spoon R                   15.0   18.0
SSL SEVI2 Seville - (Marietta 3ESE) - Spoon R             22.0   24.0
SSL MNTI2 Monticello - Sangamon R                         13.0   15.7
SSL RIPI2 Ripley - La Moine R                             22.0   22.9
TIA MAQI4 Maquoketa - 2NE - Maquoketa R                   24.0   25.8

Sites with forecasts below flood stage but above a
user-defined threshold (FS=Flood Stage):
                                                                 MAX
RVF NWSLI    Station name/river                             FS   FCST
CAL SHLI2 South Holland - Little Calumet R                16.5   16.3
CIW MROI4 Marengo - Iowa R                                14.0   13.5
CIW WAPI4 Wapello - Iowa R                                20.0   18.7
GND DMDM4 Dimondale - 1WSW & Grand R                      13.0   11.5
GND GDLM4 Grand Ledge - 1NW & Hwy 100 - Grand R           11.0   10.4
GND SMYM4 Smyrna - Flat R                                  8.5    7.5
GND SCTM4 Scottville - Pere Marquette R                    5.5    4.4
GND WHTM4 Whitehall - 7NE - White R                        6.0    5.5
GND EVRM4 Evart - Muskegon R                              12.0   11.0
GND MORM4 Morley - 5E - Little Muskegon R                  6.0    5.5
KBM PLMI2 Plumfield - Big Muddy R                         20.0   18.9
KBM MURI2 Murphysboro - 2SW-WWTP/Rte 127-Big Muddy R      22.0   20.7
KDF NBAI2 Chicago - N Br Chicago River                     7.0    5.9
KDF LDRI2 Lincolnshire - Des Plaines R                    12.5   12.2
KDF RVFI2 River Forest - Des Plaines River                16.0   14.8
KSJ MARM4 Marshall - Kalamazoo R                           8.0    7.6
KSJ BCRM4 Battle Creek - No 3 - Battle Cr                  4.0    3.0
KSJ BTCM4 Battle Creek - No 2 - Kalamazoo R                9.0    7.1
NLM SHRM4 Sherman - 1N - Manistee R                       15.0   14.0
RCK DARW3 Darlington - WWTP - Pecatonica R                13.5   12.8
RCK ALBW3 Albany - Sugar R                                12.0   11.7
RCK ROKI2 Rockton - Rock R                                10.0    9.9
RCK DEKI2 De Kalb - Nrn IL U - So Br Kishwaukee R         10.0    9.8
RCK DXRI2 Dixon - Rock River                              16.0   15.9
SMS ANNM4 Ann Arbor - Huron R                             16.0   15.9
SMS TECM4 Tecumseh - WWTP & 4S - Rvr Raisin               13.0   12.3
SMS ADRM4 Adrian - 2E - Rvr Raisin                        18.0   14.8
SMW MPTM4 Mount Pleasant - 3NE - Chippewa R                8.0    7.5
SMW ALMM4 Alma - Pine R                                    8.0    7.2
SMW MIDM4 Midland - No 2 - Tittabawassee R                24.0   23.8
SSL RVTI2 Riverton - 4NNE & Sangamon R                    23.0   17.1
WIS PORW3 Portage - 1SE - WWTP / Wisconsin R              17.0   13.0
WIS VIOW3 Viola - Kickapoo R                              14.0   12.0
WIS REAW3 Readstown - Kickapoo R                          11.0    8.1
WIS SOGW3 Soldiers Grove - Kickapoo R                     13.0   10.5
WIS GMIW3 Gays Mills - WWTP - Kickapoo R                  13.0   12.6
WIS STEW3 Steuben - 3NE - Kickapoo R                      12.0   10.4

=====================================================================

...Past Precipitation...
Observation times are in UTC.
Subtract 6 hrs for CST, 5 hrs for CDT/EST, 4 hrs for EDT.
=====================================================================

Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Iowa:
LID      OBTIME/SHEF  VALUE   NAME / DETAIL                     STATE
BLGI4    DH1200/PPDRZ  1.98 : Burlington 2S                       IA
IADM07   DH1300/PPDRZ  1.95 : Burlington 6SSW                     IA
BRL      DH1153/PPDRZ  1.78 : Burlington Muni Arpt (ASOS)         IA
EOKI4    DH1200/PPDRZ  1.75 : Keokuk L&D 19                       IA
AGSI4    DH1200/PPDRG  1.57 : Augusta                             IA

Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Illinois:
LID      OBTIME/SHEF  VALUE   NAME / DETAIL                     STATE
SAAI2    DH1300/PPDRZ  3.52 : St Anne                             IL
ILWL25   DH1300/PPDRZ  3.07 : Crete 3E                            IL
BTYI2    DH1400/PPDRZ  2.98 : Bentley                             IL
ILWL136  DH1300/PPDRZ  2.96 : Crete 3.3 ENE                       IL
ILWL140  DH1300/PPDRZ  2.94 : Crete 4SSE                          IL

Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Indiana:
LID      OBTIME/SHEF  VALUE   NAME / DETAIL                     STATE
INJS45   DH1400/PPDRZ  3.76 : De Motte 1SSW                       IN
LVGI3    DH1400/PPDRZ  3.75 : Lake Village 7SE                    IN
INJS37   DH1200/PPDRZ  3.46 : De Motte 1NNW                       IN
INLP02   DH1400/PPDRZ  3.38 : Wanatah 4ESE                        IN
INJS49   DH1300/PPDRZ  3.25 : De Motte 4SW                        IN

Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Michigan:
LID      OBTIME/SHEF  VALUE   NAME / DETAIL                     STATE
DWGM4    DH1300/PPDRZ  2.64 : Dowagiac 1W                         MI
MINW08   DH1200/PPDRZ  2.32 : White Cloud 8ENE                    MI
MICNT    DH1200/PPDRP  2.29 : Constantine 1SSE                    MI
MICS05   DH1100/PPDRZ  2.27 : Niles 4E                            MI
MIBN04   DH1300/PPDRZ  2.26 : Niles 3W                            MI

Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Minnesota:
LID      OBTIME/SHEF  VALUE   NAME / DETAIL                     STATE
MNOT06   DH1300/PPDRZ  0.70 : Pelican Rapids 6NNW                 MN
MNOT07   DH1300/PPDRZ  0.39 : Deer Creek 2WSW                     MN
WRSM5    DH1400/PPDRZ  0.39 : WRENSHALL                           MN
WRIM5    DH1200/PPDRZ  0.37 : Wright 3E                           MN
MNLK04   DH1300/PPDRZ  0.36 : Two Harbors 4WNW                    MN

Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Missouri:
LID      OBTIME/SHEF  VALUE   NAME / DETAIL                     STATE
MOFSA205 DH1300/PPDRZ  2.35 : Shelbyville                         MO
SFFM7    DH1300/PPDRZ  2.33 : Steffenville                        MO
CANM7    DH1200/PPDRG  2.26 : Canton L&D 20                       MO
CANM7    DH1200/PPDRZ  2.25 : Canton L&D 20                       MO
HGZM7    DH1200/PPDRG  2.24 : Hagers Grove                        MO

Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from North Dakota:
LID      OBTIME/SHEF  VALUE   NAME / DETAIL                     STATE
HVNN8    DH1300/PPDRZ  0.20 : Havana                              ND
NDRC08   DH1200/PPDRZ  0.16 : Abercrombie                         ND
LGRN8    DH1300/PPDRZ  0.16 : Lidgerwood                          ND
NDCS04   DH1400/PPDRZ  0.15 : Fargo 3NE                           ND
LISN8    DH1300/PPDRZ  0.14 : Lisbon                              ND

Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from South Dakota:
LID      OBTIME/SHEF  VALUE   NAME / DETAIL                     STATE
SDRB14   DH1300/PPDRZ  0.42 : Sisseton                            SD
SDRB04   DH1300/PPDRZ  0.33 : Sisseton 10ENE                      SD
SIWS2    DH1300/PPDRZ  0.28 : Sisseton 4W                         SD
SDRB01   DH1300/PPDRZ  0.28 : Sisseton 4W                         SD
VTRS2    DH1300/PPDRZ  0.27 : Victor 4NNE                         SD

Top daily precipitation reports greater than zero from Wisconsin:
LID      OBTIME/SHEF  VALUE   NAME / DETAIL                     STATE
SOYW3    DH1200/PPDRZ  1.89 : South Wayne - 4SW                   WI
MTOW3    DH1300/PPDRZ  1.75 : Milton WWTP                         WI
WIDA44   DH1400/PPDRZ  1.75 : Brooklyn 1NNE                       WI
WIJF05   DH1240/PPDRZ  1.68 : Whitewater 1NW                      WI
WIRK16   DH1400/PPDRZ  1.67 : Janesville 3ENE                     WI

=====================================================================

See http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc/LMI_QCPCPN for all reports.


For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at:     http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc


$$






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