Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS California-Nevada RFC

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AGUS76 KRSA 261459
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
800 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

...MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR LIGHT PRECIP NEAR CA/ORE BORDER...

.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING MAR 26 AT 500 AM PDT)...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HAS KEPT THE REGION DRY OVER THE LAST 24-HRS.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: THU AM - SUN AM)...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ALIGNED ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS
MORNING...BETWEEN ONE UPR TROF DOWNSTREAM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND
ANOTHER UPR TROF UPSTREAM GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG 150W. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY.

WEAKENING UPR TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST COAST
TOMORROW...WHILE THE UPR RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND EVENTUALLY ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPR TROF WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...OVER THE PACNW.
THIS IS WHERE THE BEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG ACROSS THE CA/ORE BORDER AREA WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPR TROF WILL SHIFT INLAND AND THE UPR RIDGE WILL
REBUILD ACROSS THE WEST COAST FOR DRY CONDITIONS.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: SUN AM - WED AM)...

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY...KEEPING
THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION DRY. THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS OF THE GFS
INDICATE AN UPPER LOW CUTTING THROUGH BAJA MX LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WOULD SPIN UP THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA AND EASTERN NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE EC IGNORES THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...KEEPING THE REGION
DRY THROUGH MONDAY. THREW THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIP IN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THEN AGAIN...NEITHER IS THE HYDROLOGIC
IMPACT.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT DRAPING DOWN TO TO
THE CA/OR BORDER. THE GFS DIGS THIS FEATURE MORE DEEPLY THAN THE EC
DOES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 06Z RUN OVER THE 00Z RUN. CURRENT
FORECAST REFLECTS THE TREND OF THE 00Z GFS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP
POSSIBLE OVER THE SMITH AND UPPER KLAMATH BASINS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
QUICKLY LIFTING TO THE NE BY TUESDAY MORNING LEAVING THE REGION DRY
YET AGAIN.


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

RIVERS IN THE NORTH COAST AREA OF CALIFORNIA HAVE MOSTLY RECEDED
BACK TO BASEFLOW CONDITIONS.

THE ONLY RIVER RISES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO ARE IN THE
HIGH ELEVATION AREAS OF THE CASCADES AND THE SIERRA NEVADA WHERE
SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY WARM UP.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK OUT ON FRIDAY WITH RIVER LEVELS PEAKING ON
SATURDAY.

ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MONITOR LEVELS.


MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

DRK/JM/DRK/PF

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