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000
AGNT40 KWNM 200718
MIMATN

Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
318 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.

Note: Warnings are preliminary, and will be modified based on
the next NHC advisory for Hurricane Jose.

The GOES-E infrared satellite imagery indicates Tropical Storm
Jose drifting NE through the nrn NT2 offshore waters this
morning, and the 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET all indicate it will drift N
of the Gulf Stream today. Jose has been weakening over the past
24 hours, and Ascat wind retrievals from 02Z last night indicates
up to 50 kt near the low center. The models all indicate Jose
will meander over the offshore waters over the next few days
while making a small loop over NT2. Beyond 72 hours, the models
start disagreeing on the track as the 00Z GFS takes the system to
the N, the 00Z ECMWF takes it to the E, and the 00Z UKMET takes
it to the W. The models have been struggling to resolve the
track, but all indicate slow but continuous weakening. The
previous track from NHC indicated Jose will slow over nrn NT2, so
planning on using previous wind grids and modifying based on the
next NHC advisory as confidence with all 00Z models is low as a
result of the poor agreement.

In the medium range, the 00Z models all indicate Hurricane Maria
will approach the offshore waters from the S before moving into
the srn offshore waters beyond the forecast period. The 00Z GFS
is faster than the rest of the 00Z guidance, while the 00Z ECMWF
has trended W from its previous run. The 12Z ECMWF from yesterday
agrees somewhat well with the 00Z UKMET/GEM, so preferring it at
this time. However, the forecast will be adjusted based on the
track from the next NHC advisory on Maria.

Seas...The 00Z Wavewatch and ECMWF WAM are initialized a few ft
low with the wave heights near Jose. The previous wave height
grids seem to match current conditions better, so planning on
using them and making modifications based on the NHC track. Will
then populate with the 19/12Z ECMWF WAM to match wind grids in
the medium range.

.Extratropical Storm Surge Guidance...Please refer to the latest
NHC advisory and local NWS WFO guidance in reference to any
potential tropical storm surge.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning
is in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha`s Vineyard, and
Nantucket. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would
increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the coast
from Long Island to southern New England.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and
much of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
are expected over eastern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts.
2 to 4 inches are expected in Nantucket and Cape Cod, and 3 to 5
inches in Martha`s Vineyard. This rainfall could cause isolated
flash flooding.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.NT1 New England Waters...
.ANZ805...Georges Bank west of 68W...
     Tropical Storm today into Thursday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday night.
.ANZ900...Georges Bank east of 68W...
     Tropical Storm today into Thursday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday.
.ANZ810...South of New England...
     Tropical Storm today into Thursday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Saturday.
.ANZ815...South of Long Island...
     Tropical Storm today into tonight.
     Gale Possible Friday into Friday night.

.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...
.ANZ820...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon...
     Tropical Storm today.
.ANZ915...Hudson Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Tropical Storm today into Thursday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Saturday night.
.ANZ920...Baltimore Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Tropical Storm today into Thursday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Saturday night.
.ANZ905...The Great South Channel to the Hague Line...
     Tropical Storm today into Thursday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Saturday.
.ANZ910...East of the Great South Channel and south of 39N...
     Tropical Storm today into Thursday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Saturday.
.ANZ825...Inner Waters from Baltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light...
     Tropical Storm today.
.ANZ925...Outer Waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon...
     Tropical Storm today.

$$

.Forecaster Kells. Ocean Prediction Center.


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