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AGNT40 KWNM 200751

Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
251 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.

Highly amplified pattern will persist across the CONUS for the
next several days and into the weekend. Deep mean and reloading
upper trough will persist over the Western US, while anomalous
upper ridge will remain stationary across the Eastern Seaboard.
Across the W Atlantic and OPC offshore zones, this persistent H5
ridging will yield mostly light winds and flat seas.

Overall model guidance from the 00z cycle remains in pretty good
agreement throughout forecast period. Plan on using the 00z ECMWF
into 12z Thu, and out of deference to the higher 30 kt winds in
00z GFS guidance, intend to even blend the first sigma layer
winds during this time frame. Will transition to the 00z ECMWF
onwards for cold front passage, then stall between 37N-38N off
the mid-Atlantic coast Thu and Thu night. The ECMWF has shown
excellent run to run consistency, and represents a consensus
solution between the northern front stalls of the 00z UKMET/GEM,
and the far southern front stall of GFS guidance. Another cold
front approaches the northern areas Fri night and Sat, then again
stalls off the mid-Atlantic coast in a near similar position Sat
night. No wind warning hazards are expected during the next

Seas: not surprising given such a weak pattern, but both the 00z
WW3 and 00z WAM match ongoing ship and buoy obs fairly well and
are in good agreement through Sat night. Plan on using an even
blend of the wave height guidance to iron out any minor

Extratropical Storm Surge Guidance: no major deviation from the
latest surge guidance appears necessary over the couple of days.


.NT1 New England Waters...

.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...


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