Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGNT40 KWNM 230756
MIMATN

Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
356 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.

A series of lows will still track along a stationary front
across the north waters and a high pressure ridge will dominate
the southern waters as winds remain below gale force through the
period. Geocolor satellite images still show a band of clouds
with bright tops over the north waters and the lightning density
map shows a few strikes along this band of clouds. Highest winds
are only 25 kt over the central waters in the vicinity of TSTMS.
At 06Z the NCEP map has a stationary front across Hudson Canyon
and Baltimore Canyon waters. High pressure well east of the
waters, extends a ridge west into the central and southern waters
and commands a fairly relaxed pressure gradient across the
central and southern waters.

In the upper levels a ridge of high pressure with little to no
energy dominate the southern waters with mostly zonal flow across
the central and northern waters. In the short term, there will
be a sries of short waves with some energy that will cross the
north waters but will not be enough to allow conditions to
elevate winds to warning threshold. The same scenario will
continue into the extended period and so the gradient will remain
relaxed through the forecast period.

Models GFS/CMC/UKMETHR/ECMWFHR/NOGAPS/NAM have initialized the
06Z surface observations quite well. The models also continue to
generally agree well in the short term on pushing a series of
lows east along a frontal boundary over the forecast waters. The
only differences still minor and mainly on the timing of these
lows as they propagate along the front. Will keep a 50-50 blend
of ECMWHR and GFS. In the short term, a high pressure ridge to
the southeast will keep its associated ridge over the southern
waters while low pressure just east of New Jersey waters zooms
east across the waters and will be east of the waters in the next
24 hours. Stationary front will remain over the north waters.

.SEAS...Seas are relatively small in the absence of large period
swells with a peak at 10 ft over the central waters. Peak swell
mainly from the southwest covers the region. Elsewhere, seas
range between 2 and 5 ft . NWW3 and ECMWFWAVE models fit well the
observed seas pattern. Both wave models still agree well in the
short term on keeping seas relatively high over the central
waters with a peak at 10 ft.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...n/a.


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.NT1 New England Waters...
     None.

.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...
     None.

$$

.Forecaster Musonda. Ocean Prediction Center.



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