Marine Interpretation Message
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AGNT40 KWNM 101836
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
236 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NT1
WATERS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS
EXTENDING E. ASCAT PASS FROM MID MORNING INDICATED WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS OVER MOST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS...THOUGH THERE WAS A SMALL
AREA OF 17 TO 23 KT WINDS OVER E PORTION OF THE NT2 WATERS IN
ADVANCE OF FRONT.

THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FCST PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN NT2 WATERS TONIGHT INTO SAT AS WEAK LOW MOVES OFFSHORE
THE N CAROLINA COAST FRI NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATERS SAT.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK INTO SUN WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER
THE AREA. LOOKING AHEAD TO MON AND TUE...THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO LOW PRES WHICH IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE ERN GREAT LAKES WITH FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST TUE...THEN
MOVING OFFSHORE LATE TUE. THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH THE LOW THEN THE
OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...THOUGH THE PRES GRAD IS SIMILAR WITH THE SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. HOWEVER...AFTER
VIEWING ALL OF THE NEW 12Z MODEL DATA...THE GFS APPEARS TO BE
STRONGER WITH THE WINDS THAN EITHER THE UKMET OR ECMWF. THEREFORE
WILL PLAN ON POPULATING GRIDS WITH THE 12Z GFS 10M WINDS THROUGH
12Z MON...THEN WILL USE THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE REMAINING PERIODS.

.SEAS...THE 15Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE MWW3 WAVE
HEIGHT FCST VALUES WERE WITHIN A FT OF THE OBSERVATIONS. WILL
POPULATE GRIDS USING THE WNA WAVE HEIGHT VALUES THROUGH 12Z
MON...THEN WILL USE THE ECMWF WAM VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
FORECAST.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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