Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 171419
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
719 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

12Z OPC SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PZ5
WATERS...W/A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE PZ6 WAERS. A LOW PRES TROUGH
WAS LOCATED JUST INLAND ALONG THE CA COAST. 06Z GFS/NAM REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT W/THEIR PRIOR 00Z RUNS WHICH WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
W/THE REST OF THE OOZ GUIDANCE PER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION. SO W/THAT IN MIND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THIS INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.
WILL CONTINUE W/WARNING HEADLINES AS IS.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GIVEN THE FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW...SOME DFFRNCS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE MODELS GDNC EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE ARE RLTVLY MINOR.

COLD FRONT NOW APPCHNG THE PAC NW WILL PUSH E ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY INTO TNGT WHILE WEAKENING. ASCAT PASS FM 0510Z SHOWED WINDS
20 TO 30 KT CLOSE TO THE FRONT...AS DPCTD BY THE GFS. MODELS IN GD
AGRMNT ON TIMING OF FRONT. STRONG LOW PRES WIL MOVE INTO THE NE
PAC FRI INTO SAT. MODELS IN GD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF ASSD COLD
FRONT WHIPPING E ACRS THE NRN WATERS FRI NGT INTO SAT. MOD TO HIGH
CNFDC OF GALES FRI NGT INTO SAT AS GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL FCST MNML
10M WIND GALE FRC WINDS AND AGREE WELL ON TIMING OF THE FRONT.

ALONG THE CNTRL CA COAST...MODELS FCST NW WINDS TO 25 KT...XCPT TO
30 KT E OF THE OFFSHR WATERS TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU
FRI...THOUGH GRADU DMNSHNG WINDS THU INTO FRI.

AS THE SFC LOW ROTATES UNDER THE UPR CNTR JUST S OF THE GF OF
AK OVR THE WEEKEND...NEXT FRNTL BOUNDRY WILL GET SPUN E ACRS THE
NRN WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GD AGRMNT WITH THE
FRONT...THE GFS FCST A BRF PERIOD OF MNML GALES OVR THE WASH/OR
WATERS SUN. THESE WINDS LOOK TOO HIGH AND ARE 5 TO 10 KT HIGHER
THEN ECMWF/UKMET. CNFDC TOO LOW TO FCST GALES SO WILL CAP WINDS AT
30 KT. FOR MON...THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST IN PUSHING NEXT SFC E
TWDS THE NNR WATERS. PREFER TO STAY WITH THE GFS FOR
CONTINUITY...AND NOTE THAT THE ECMWF IS AN EASTERN OUTLIER.


.SEAS...THE WAVE WATCH III INITLZD WELL AND GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD
THRU THE FCST SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE MODEL.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH
AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE FRI NIGHT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE FRI NIGHT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE FRI NIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER HOLLEY/PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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