Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 081534
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
734 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

HIGH PRES RDG DOMINATED THE MUCH OF THE OFFSHR WTRS THIS MRNG.
THERE WAS A TROF JUST W OF THE CA COAST WHICH WAS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING W AND OFFSHR. THE LATEST MDL GUID ARE SMLR OVERALL THRU
ABT LATE TUE. AN UPR RDG ALG THE WRN US AND CANADIA COAST TDA
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD AND NRLY STALLS INLAND THRU WED AND THU. MDLS DIFFER
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SLY FLW THAT STRENGTHENS OVR AND W OF
THE NRN OFFSHR WTRS AS SVRL CD FNTS APPROACH FM THE W. GRIDS ARE
USING THE GFS ON TUE WITH STGST WINDS TO 25 KT WHICH MAY BE SLGTLY TOO
STG. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE PREFER THE WKR SLY FLOW WITH THE
UKMET/ECMWF BY WED OVR THE WA/OR/NRN CA WTRS AS COMPARED TO
GFS/GEM INADVOF FNT. FOR THE UPDATED FCST WL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO
EARLIER FCST OVR THE OFFSHR WTRS.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

06Z ASCAT-A PASS WITH GOOD COVERAGE RETURNED WINDS OF MOSTLY 15 KT
OR LESS ACRS THE WTRS EXCP IN FAR N WHERE WINDS ARE S TO SE UP TO
20 KT CLOSER TO DEPARTED WARM FNT N OF AREA. IT ALSO SHOWS A WK
CSTL TROF WHICH HAS EXTENDED FM CA CST NWD TO OREGON CST. OTRW
HIGH PRES RDG DOMINATES. 00Z GFS 10M WINDS ARE REPRESENTATIVE IN S
TO SE FLOW PTRN ON W SIDE OF RDG. FOR SEAS...THE 00Z MULTIGRID
WWIII MATCHES UP WELL WITH OBSVD SEAS OVR THE PZ6 AND SE PZ5
WTRS...BUT IS A COUPLE OF FT TOO HIGH OVR OUTER PZ5 WTRS...WHERE
00Z ECMWF WAM IS BETTER. USED 00Z ECMWF WAM INITIALLY AND INTO
NEW FIRST PRD.

00Z MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGRMT THRU TUE NIGHT AND THEN SLOLY
DIVERGE...ESPCLY W OF OFSHR WTRS. HIGH PRES OVR INLAND AREAS HAD A
SFC RDG EXTENDING W OVR NRN PZ5 AREA AND THEN EXTENDING S ALG
OUTER WTRS...AND THERE IS CSTL TROF MENTIONED ABV. THE HIGH PRES
AREA RMNS THRU MON AFTN. BY TUE THE UPR RDG THAT MOVS INLAND AND
AMPLIFIES OVR THE WRN US INTO WRN CANADA SHUD LIMIT STRENGTH OF
SLY WINDS OVR THE WA/OR/NRN CA OFFSHR WTRS. WITH GOOD MDL AGRMT
NEAR TERM WILL FAVOR THE 00Z GFS 10M WINDS THRU TUE NIGHT. THEN BY
WED GFS IS TOO STRONG WITH WINDS WITH A CDFNT APCHG THE
WTRS...THEN MOVG E INTO THE WTRS. FOR WED AND WED NIGHT WILL USE A
50/50 BLEND OF 00Z GFS/ECMWF WHICH NUDGES DOWN THE GFS WINDS...AS
ECMWF/UKMET ARE NOT AS STG AND ARE QUICKER WITH WEAKENING THE FNT
AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOV EWD OVR THE WTRS. FOR THU INTO FRI NGT WILL
FAVOR 100 PCT ECMWF FOR WINDS WITH THAT MDL CLOSER TO UKMET AND
GEM IN BLDG A RDG INTO THE WTRS VERSUS THE GFS.

SEAS...WL USE 00Z ECMWF WAM FOR FIRST PERIOD AS IT IS BETTER
INITIALLY...THEN WILL USE 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z MULTIGRID WWIII
AND ECMWF WAM THRU 12Z THU WITH SEAS ACRS THE OFFSHR WTRS...THEN
FAVOR THE ECMWF WAM THE RMNDR OF FCST PD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER ROWLAND/BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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