Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 260634
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

VALID OCT 26/0000 UTC THRU OCT 29/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA/
DEEP CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHEAST AK TUESDAY
CYCLONE MOVING ALONG THE MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER LATE TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: CLOSE TO A UKMET/ECMWF COMPROMISE BY DEFAULT
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE LATEST CPHC FORECAST FOR ANA IS CLOSEST TO A COMPROMISE OF THE
00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF, WHICH IS PREFERRED BY DEFAULT.  THESE
PREFERENCES EXTEND TO THE SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA BORDER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS IN CONNECTION WITH A SHORTWAVE
BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM, TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH
THEIR FORECAST.  SEE THE LATEST CPHC ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM
ANA FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON THIS CYCLONE WHICH HAS BEGUN
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM IS A SLOW OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS INTO
CANADA, ONE OF ITS TRADITIONAL BIASES.  THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS
MEANS AGREE WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
SURFACE CYCLONE, WHICH BEFITS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS THE UPSTREAM
RIDGE WEAKENS.  WITH ITS TRAILING FRONT, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
CLOSEST TO THE INTERMEDIATE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS.


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/ATLANTIC CANADA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$





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