Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 240438
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1237 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

VALID AUG 24/0000 UTC THRU AUG 27/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING INITIAL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


700-500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY...REACHING
  THE GREAT LAKES WED AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THU
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z NCEP RUNS WERE CLOSE TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS IN TERMS OF
BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH.  AS A RESULT...THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET STILL
HAVE THE SUPPORT OF THE ENSEMBLES AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  THE 00Z NAM REMAINS A BIT ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE
SOLNS...AND NEITHER OF THE NCEP MODELS HAS TAKEN ON THE SHAPE OF
THE CMC.  AS SUCH...THERE WAS LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE PREVIOUS
MODEL CHOICES EXCEPT TO INCLUDE THE 24/00Z GFS IN PLACE OF THE
23/12Z GFS.


MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN...MOVING INTO SRN ONTARIO THU
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS...23/12Z ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE AND WOULD SUGGEST THE 12Z CMC/UKMET ARE TOO QUICK
TO PROGRESS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EASTWARD...WHILE THE 23/12Z ECMWF
WAS THE SLOWEST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE GFS WAS
A BIT FASTER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND WILL MATCH WELL WITH THE ENSEMBLE SOLNS AND REMAIN
CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE GROUND SOLN.


MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT...WEAKENING
   INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE MODELS SHOW SIMILARLY WITH THIS FEATURE.


SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT WESTERN SIDE OF WESTERN U.S. POSITIVE TILT
  TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES BY THU
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON 12Z CMC BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

OUTSIDE OF THE 12Z CMC...THE LATEST MODELS STILL GENERALLY SHOW
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
CMC LOOKS TO HAVE MUCH MORE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WRN TROUGH THAN THE
REMAINING DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS.

BANN

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

$$




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