Public Information Statement
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA

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NOUS46 KSEW 261533
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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
835 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2015

...LATEST EL NINO WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
RECENTLY RELEASED ITS LATEST SEASONAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UPDATE THAT
INCLUDES WHAT IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WINTER IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE CPC MONITORS EL NINO AND ITS SIBLINGS LA NINA AND
NEUTRAL CONDITIONS THAT ALL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE CPC
SEASONAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON...THE LATEST OUTLOOK MAINTAINS A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD OF WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WINTER.
FOR PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST OUTLOOK INDICATES NEAR AVERAGE OR
TIPS THE ODDS TOWARD BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WINTER.

THIS COMBINATION IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR THE MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK. THE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A HIGHER
AVERAGE MOUNTAIN SNOW LEVEL. THIS TREND TRANSLATES INTO AN INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD OF A BELOW AVERAGE MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK...PARTICULARLY AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WATERS
RECENTLY EXCEEDED 2.0 DEGREES CELSIUS ABOVE AVERAGE...POINTING TO
WHAT WILL QUITE LIKELY BE ONE OF THE WARMEST EL NINO EVENTS IN
RECORDED HISTORY. OTHER SUCH WARM EL NINOS INCLUDE THE WINTERS OF
1982-83 AND 1997-98.

THE HISTORY OF EL NINO FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST WINTER SEASONS HAS A
GOOD CORRELATION WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. YET FOR
PRECIPITATION...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE IS NO CLEAR
TREND. FOR INSTANCE...BOTH THE WINTERS OF 1982-83 AND 1997-98 HAD
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH...1982-
83 WAS WETTER THAN AVERAGE WHILE 1997-98 WAS DRIER.

AT THIS POINT...THE LATEST WINTER SEASONAL OUTLOOK SHOWS STRONG ODDS
OF WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT NEAR OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. THE WINTER SEASONAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FINE-TUNED AS SUMMER ENDS AND FALL ARRIVES. FOR THE
LATEST SEASONAL OUTLOOKS...CLICK THE HEADLINE ON THE NWS SEATTLE WEB
PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/

$$
BUEHNER


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