Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 020505
SWODY1
SPC AC 020504

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
TN AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE PRIMARY WAVE OF
INTEREST WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BELT OF NWLY 40 KT 500 MB FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE TX PANHANDLE EWD
ACROSS OK AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL RESIDE NEAR/S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...
A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF
WRN KS AND NEB EARLY IN THE DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT WILL PROVIDE A
MESO-HIGH WHICH MAY HELP TO REINFORCE THE FRONT ACROSS SRN KS INTO
OK LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS OK/TX WITH A
PLUME OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ERODING THE CAP. FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE BY 21Z OVER WRN OK.

AN EXPANSION OF NEW DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TRENDING EWD ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY INTO NRN AR AND PERHAPS WRN TN. HOWEVER...EXACT
PLACEMENT MAY DEPEND ON THE EARLY STORM OUTFLOW AND EFFECTS ON
STABILITY WHICH COULD DELAY THE BULK OF THE NEW DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
00Z.

IN ALL AREAS...DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN
LINEAR FORCING AND MERGING OUTFLOWS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER KS AND OK NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
PLUME.

TO THE W...OTHER ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAYTIME
HEATING BENEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS.

..JEWELL/GLEASON.. 07/02/2015



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