Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 060102
SWODY1
SPC AC 060100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST MON DEC 05 2016

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST.

...CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST...
THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA. THIS WIDESPREAD
RAIN HAS PRODUCED A STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF
COAST REGION. AN EAST TO WEST BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED FROM
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THIS
WARM ADVECTION RELATED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING WHERE A TORNADO AND/OR WIND
DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST OF CELLS.
FURTHER TO THE WEST...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN WAS ORIGINALLY
FORECAST BUT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AFTER 06Z.

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RETURN INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S FAHRENHEIT IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AS IS SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST HRRR. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME DESTABILIZATION...INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MAINTENANCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. DUE TO
DELAYED ONSET OF MOISTURE ADVECTION...WILL TRIM THE SLIGHT RISK
SOUTHWARD OUT OF MOST OF THE BIRMINGHAM CWA. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NOW PLACED WHERE MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE MARGINAL RISK CUTTING OFF
AT THE 60 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITIES IN 250 TO 350 M2/S2 RANGE. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT INITIATE NEAR THE COAST AND
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY CELL THAT CAN BECOME
ORGANIZED.

..BROYLES.. 12/06/2016

$$



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