Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS01 KWNS 230555
SWODY1
SPC AC 230554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...THE NORTHWEST...AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A FEW
OF THE STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND A SECOND
REMAINS OFF THE PAC COAST...BROAD RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF COUNTRY THIS PERIOD.  WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE
RIDGE...A WEAKENING VORT MAX IS PROGGED THE DRIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...WHILE A SECOND MAKES SLOW EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE NRN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER
FEATURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH RESPECT TO LOW-END SEVERE
RISK THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WHILE A LEE TROUGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
WEAK/DIFFUSE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE WEST...THOUGH
THE PAC NW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED WITH TIME BY A
DEEP/OCCLUDED OFFSHORE LOW.

...PORTIONS OF WRN KS/WRN NEB...
GRADUAL EWD PROGRESSION OF MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ASSOCIATED ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LEE
TROUGH INTO WRN PORTIONS KS/NEB...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS DIURNAL HEATING OF A MARGINALLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS 500 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE.  A
FEW STRONGER STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE ACROSS THIS
REGION...AIDED BY 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL
ORGANIZATION OR PERHAPS EVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION.  AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY FROM
WRN/CENTRAL NEB SWD ACROSS WRN KS...TO COVER AN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WINDOW OF LOCAL HAIL/WIND RISK.

..GOSS/COHEN.. 09/23/2014



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.