Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 021629
SWODY1
SPC AC 021628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL/NE WI AND PARTS OF UPPER MI...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE
PAC NW WITHIN THE PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS.  OTHER LOWER-AMPLITUDE WAVES
IN MUCH WEAKER MEAN FLOW WILL DRIFT SEWD OVER OH/WV...AND MEANDER
OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  A SOMEWHAT BETTER-DEFINED WAVE WILL
CROSS WI/WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AZ...THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF DAMAGING WIND
PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT.

...CENTRAL/NE WI AND PARTS OF UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING NEAR THE
MI/WI BORDER...ON THE N EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR AND IN ADVANCE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW WI.  THE ONGOING STORMS WILL POSE A
RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION LIKELY WEAKENS OVER NRN LAKE
MI.  FARTHER W...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE E EDGE OF THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND WEAK ASCENT COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/NE WI.  THE MODIFIED 12Z
GRB SOUNDING SUPPORTS MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR THAT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND AN
ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS/LARGE HAIL.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 09/02/2015



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