Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 311731
SWODY2
SPC AC 311730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM PARTS OF
TEXAS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
COAST STATES ON SUNDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A SEMI-PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL OTHERWISE BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT OVER THE
CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST.

...ARKLAMISS...
INFLUENCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A COLD FRONT
WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND
LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY AND TN VALLEY SUNDAY. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION/MODEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY MODEST MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD REACH AROUND 60 F
POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LA/MS.

WHILE THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...SUFFICIENT WARM SECTOR BUOYANCY /ALBEIT WEAK/ COULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EXPECTED
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS TOO CONDITIONAL TO INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.

..GUYER.. 01/31/2015




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