Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 020434
SWODY2
SPC AC 020433

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
SCATTERED ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY BE
NOTED WITH THESE STORMS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO MID MO VALLEY...

RIDGE-TOPPING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES BY 04/00Z.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS
FEATURE...SFC ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BUILD SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER FORCING A FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH CNTRL MN...SWWD INTO NRN NEB
BY PEAK HEATING.  APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS CANADA BUT STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE WIND SHIFT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WHERE SFC
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ABOVE 90F.  CINH WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WIND SHIFT WITH READINGS ABOVE 90F.


WHILE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY INDUCE CONVECTION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY...STRONGEST TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITHIN A WEAK-MODESTLY SHEARED
PROFILE.  ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN WARM ADVECTION
ZONE AND GUSTY WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS.


...SOUTHWESTERN U.S...

LOW LATITUDE DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL DRIFT NWD TO
NEAR THE CA BORDER EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN ACROSS SRN CA BY
04/12Z.  CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE MAY STRENGTHEN A BIT INTO THE
DAY2 PERIOD WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MEAN SLY FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS NWRN
MEXICO INTO AZ/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.  TROPICAL SURGE INTO THIS
REGION SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION.  IF
SUFFICIENT HEATING DEVELOPS WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME THEN GUSTY WINDS
APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

..DARROW.. 08/02/2014



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