Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 260754
SWODY2
SPC AC 260753

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND ARKLATEX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS...ARKLATEX AND MID MO VALLEY OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NY...VT AND
NH...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY.
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...OZARKS...NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

...SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SEWD INTO THE SRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE IN PLACE FROM NW TX EXTENDING SWD
INTO THE WRN TX HILL COUNTRY. TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF TX EXTENDING NWD INTO PARTS OF OK.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE INSTABILITY CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND
ARKLATEX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SAN
ANTONIO NWD TO THE RED RIVER FOR 00Z/SAT SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F WITH MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE.
IN ADDITION...MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS AND ABOUT 40 KT OF WSW FLOW IN THE
MID-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND TO
THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR FROM CNTRL TX
NWD INTO SRN OK ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. WIND DAMAGE
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

...CNTRL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY AS SOUTH SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY. A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF KS EXTENDING NNEWD INTO
ERN NEB AND IA WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM TOPEKA KS NWD TO OMAHA
NEB FOR 00Z/SAT SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
F...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR GENERALLY BELOW 30 KT.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

...NY/VT/NH...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD ACROSS SCNTRL QUEBEC.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT INTO NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...SFC DEWPOINTS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND A POCKET OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF
THIS...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE
NERN STATES FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
MARGINAL. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITH MULTICELL STORMS
NEAR PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES.. 05/26/2016

$$



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